O.J. Howard and Myles Garrett Ran The Top Weight-Adjusted 40s At 2017 Combine

by Chase Stuart on April 9, 2017

O.J. Howard is fast.

As I have done for the last few years, this week I will be using the raw NFL combine data and adjusting them various metrics. With respect to the 40-yard dash, the only adjustment I’ve made is for weight, as no other variable (e.g., height) impacts a player’s 40 time quite like weight. The best-fit formula to predict 40-yard dash time during the 2017 combine was 3.283 + 0.00606 x weight. ((This time around, I excluded punters, kickers, and long snappers when running regressions, as those players aren’t invited to their combine for their raw athleticism (and removing them made the numbers a little tighter). As you can see

Let’s use Alabama tight end O.J. Howard as an example. He weighed 251 pounds at the combine, which means he would be projected to run the 40-yard dash in 4.81 seconds. Instead, he ran it in just 4.51 seconds, a full 0.30 better than expected.

That was the best performance of any player at the combine. A very close second was produced by the presumptive number one pick in the draft, Myles Garrett. The Texas A&M defensive end weighed 272 pounds, so using the formula above, a player of Garrett’s size should run the 40 in 4.93 seconds. But Garrett was 0.29 seconds better than expected, completing the drill in 4.64 seconds. Garrett reportedly bested that time by running 40 yards in 4.57 seconds at his Pro Day, too.

Rk	Name	College	Pos	Wt	Exp 40	Act 40	Diff
1	O.J. Howard	Alabama	TE	251	4.81	4.51	0.30
2	Myles Garrett	Texas A&M	DE	272	4.93	4.64	0.29
3	Evan Engram	Mississippi	TE	234	4.70	4.42	0.28
4	Bucky Hodges	Virginia Tech	TE	257	4.84	4.57	0.27
5	Aviante Collins	TCU	OT	295	5.07	4.81	0.26
6	George Kittle	Iowa	TE	247	4.78	4.52	0.26
7	Montravius Adams	Auburn	DT	304	5.13	4.87	0.26
8	Solomon Thomas	Stanford	DE	273	4.94	4.69	0.25
9	Trey Hendrickson	Florida Atlantic	DE	266	4.90	4.65	0.25
10	Obi Melifonwu	Connecticut	S	224	4.64	4.40	0.24
11	Ben Braden	Michigan	OG	329	5.28	5.04	0.24
12	Jessamen Dunker	Tennessee St.	OG	318	5.21	4.98	0.23
13	Darrell Daniels	Washington	TE	247	4.78	4.55	0.23
14	Leonard Fournette	LSU	RB	240	4.74	4.51	0.23
15	Malik McDowell	Michigan St.	DT	295	5.07	4.85	0.22
16	Jalen Myrick	Minnesota	CB	200	4.50	4.28	0.22
17	Tarell Basham	Ohio	DE	269	4.91	4.70	0.21
18	Takkarist McKinley	UCLA	DE	250	4.80	4.59	0.21
19	Josh Jones	N.C. State	S	220	4.62	4.41	0.21
20	Tanoh Kpassagnon	Villanova	DE	289	5.04	4.83	0.21
21	John Ross	Washington	WR	188	4.42	4.22	0.20
22	Charles Walker	Oklahoma	DT	310	5.16	4.96	0.20
23	Haason Reddick	Temple	DE	237	4.72	4.52	0.20
24	Carl Lawson	Auburn	DE	261	4.87	4.67	0.20
25	Fabian Moreau	UCLA	CB	206	4.53	4.35	0.18
26	Adam Shaheen	Ashland	TE	278	4.97	4.79	0.18
27	D.J. Jones	Mississippi	DT	319	5.22	5.04	0.18
28	Derek Rivers	Youngstown St.	DE	248	4.79	4.61	0.18
29	Robert Davis	Georgia State	WR	219	4.61	4.44	0.17
30	Jonnu Smith	Florida International	TE	248	4.79	4.62	0.17
31	Larry Ogunjobi	North Carolina Charlotte	DT	305	5.13	4.97	0.16
32	Curtis Samuel	Ohio St.	WR	196	4.47	4.31	0.16
33	Forrest Lamp	Western Kentucky	OG	309	5.16	5.00	0.16
34	Montae Nicholson	Michigan St.	S	212	4.57	4.42	0.15
35	Josh Malone	Tennessee	WR	208	4.54	4.40	0.14
36	Eddie Vanderdoes	UCLA	DT	305	5.13	4.99	0.14
37	Jeremiah Ledbetter	Arkansas	DE	280	4.98	4.84	0.14
38	Daeshon Hall	Texas A&M	DE	266	4.90	4.76	0.14
39	David Njoku	Miami	TE	246	4.78	4.64	0.14
40	Garett Bolles	Utah	OT	297	5.08	4.95	0.13
41	Tyus Bowser	Houston	LB	247	4.78	4.65	0.13
42	Amara Darboh	Michigan	WR	214	4.58	4.45	0.13
43	Billy Brown	Shepherd	WR	255	4.83	4.70	0.13
44	Raekwon McMillan	Ohio St.	LB	240	4.74	4.61	0.13
45	Ifeadi Odenigbo	Northwestern	DL	258	4.85	4.72	0.13
46	Delano Hill	Michigan	SS	216	4.59	4.47	0.12
47	Jeremy Sprinkle	Arkansas	TE	252	4.81	4.69	0.12
48	T.J. Watt	Wisconsin	LB	252	4.81	4.69	0.12
49	Jabrill Peppers	Michigan	LB	213	4.58	4.46	0.12
50	Alex Anzalone	Florida	LB	241	4.74	4.63	0.11
51	Dawuane Smoot	Illinois	DE	264	4.88	4.77	0.11
52	Gerald Everett	South Alabama	TE	239	4.73	4.62	0.11
53	Carroll Phillips	Illinois	DE	242	4.75	4.64	0.11
54	Duke Riley	LSU	OLB	232	4.69	4.58	0.11
55	Danny Isidora	Miami	OG	306	5.14	5.03	0.11
56	Brian Allen	Utah	DB	215	4.59	4.48	0.11
57	Kenny Golladay	Northern Illinois	WR	218	4.61	4.50	0.11
58	Vince Biegel	Wisconsin	OLB	246	4.78	4.67	0.11
59	T.J. Logan	North Carolina	RB	196	4.47	4.37	0.10
60	Avery Moss	Youngstown St.	DE	264	4.88	4.79	0.09
61	Marshon Lattimore	Ohio St.	CB	193	4.45	4.36	0.09
62	Mack Hollins	North Carolina	WR	221	4.62	4.53	0.09
63	Isaac Rochell	Notre Dame	DT	280	4.98	4.89	0.09
64	Jeremy McNichols	Boise St.	RB	214	4.58	4.49	0.09
65	Cordrea Tankersley	Clemson	CB	199	4.49	4.40	0.09
66	Cam Robinson	Alabama	OT	322	5.24	5.15	0.09
67	Shaquill Griffin	Central Florida	DB	194	4.46	4.38	0.08
68	Noble Nwachukwu	West Virginia	DE	268	4.91	4.83	0.08
69	Chidobe Awuzie	Colorado	CB	202	4.51	4.43	0.08
70	Dion Dawkins	Temple	OG	314	5.19	5.11	0.08
71	Jermaine Eluemunor	Texas A&M	OL	332	5.30	5.22	0.08
72	Blair Brown	Ohio	LB	238	4.73	4.65	0.08
73	Marlon Mack	South Florida	RB	213	4.58	4.50	0.08
74	Brendan Langley	Lamar	CB	201	4.50	4.43	0.07
75	Brian Hill	Wyoming	RB	219	4.61	4.54	0.07
76	Krishawn Hogan	Marian (IN)	WR	222	4.63	4.56	0.07
77	Marlon Humphrey	Alabama	CB	197	4.48	4.41	0.07
78	Ricky Seals-Jones	Texas A&M	WR	243	4.76	4.69	0.07
79	Dalvin Cook	Florida St.	RB	210	4.56	4.49	0.07
80	Kevin King	Washington	CB	200	4.50	4.43	0.07
81	Fred Ross	Mississippi St.	WR	213	4.58	4.51	0.07
82	Cethan Carter	Nebraska	TE	241	4.74	4.68	0.06
83	DeAngelo Henderson	Coastal Carolina	RB	208	4.54	4.48	0.06
84	Zach Pascal	Old Dominion	WR	219	4.61	4.55	0.06
85	Michael Roberts	Toledo	TE	270	4.92	4.86	0.06
86	Quincy Adeboyejo	Mississippi	WR	197	4.48	4.42	0.06
87	Vincent Taylor	Oklahoma St.	DT	304	5.13	5.07	0.06
88	Amba Etta-Tawo	Syracuse	WR	208	4.54	4.49	0.05
89	Jerome Lane	Akron	WR	226	4.65	4.60	0.05
90	Zay Jones	East Carolina	WR	201	4.50	4.45	0.05
91	Elijah Qualls	Washington	DT	313	5.18	5.13	0.05
92	Elijah McGuire	Louisiana-Lafayette	RB	214	4.58	4.53	0.05
93	Jehu Chesson	Michigan	WR	204	4.52	4.47	0.05
94	JuJu Smith-Schuster	USC	WR	215	4.59	4.54	0.05
95	James Conner	Pittsburgh	RB	233	4.70	4.65	0.05
96	Samaje Perine	Oklahoma	RB	233	4.70	4.65	0.05
97	Bug Howard	North Carolina	WR	221	4.62	4.58	0.04
98	Taco Charlton	Michigan	DE	277	4.96	4.92	0.04
99	Taylor Moton	Western Michigan	OG	319	5.22	5.18	0.04
100	Ryan Anderson	Alabama	OLB	253	4.82	4.78	0.04
101	Dylan Donahue	West Georgia	DL	248	4.79	4.75	0.04
102	Michael Rector	Stanford	WR	193	4.45	4.42	0.03
103	Zach Cunningham	Vanderbilt	LB	234	4.70	4.67	0.03
104	ArDarius Stewart	Alabama	WR	204	4.52	4.49	0.03
105	Carlos Henderson	Louisiana Tech	WR	199	4.49	4.46	0.03
106	Christian McCaffrey	Stanford	RB	202	4.51	4.48	0.03
107	Gareon Conley	Ohio St.	CB	195	4.47	4.44	0.03
108	Christopher Carson	Oklahoma St.	RB	218	4.61	4.58	0.03
109	Nate Gerry	Nebraska	S	218	4.61	4.58	0.03
110	Jamal Adams	LSU	S	214	4.58	4.56	0.02
111	Alvin Kamara	Tennessee	RB	214	4.58	4.56	0.02
112	Connor Harris	Lindenwood	ILB	242	4.75	4.73	0.02
113	Jonathan Allen	Alabama	DE	286	5.02	5.00	0.02
114	Nazair Jones	North Carolina	DT	304	5.13	5.11	0.02
115	Budda Baker	Washington	S	195	4.47	4.45	0.02
116	Stacy Coley	Miami	WR	195	4.47	4.45	0.02
117	Taywan Taylor	Western Kentucky	WR	203	4.51	4.50	0.01
118	Ethan Pocic	LSU	C	310	5.16	5.15	0.01
119	Ben Gedeon	Michigan	ILB	244	4.76	4.75	0.01
120	Josh Carraway	TCU	DE	242	4.75	4.74	0.01
121	Caleb Brantley	Florida	DT	307	5.15	5.14	0.01
122	Chuck Clark	Virginia Tech	DB	208	4.54	4.54	0.00
123	Fadol Brown	Mississippi	DE	273	4.94	4.94	0.00
124	Charles Harris	Missouri	DE	253	4.82	4.82	0.00
125	Jalen Robinette	Air Force	WR	220	4.62	4.62	0.00
126	Tanner Vallejo	Boise St.	LB	228	4.67	4.67	0.00
127	Devonte' Fields	Louisville	OLB	236	4.71	4.72	-0.01
128	Adoree Jackson	USC	CB	186	4.41	4.42	-0.01
129	Rodney Adams	South Florida	WR	189	4.43	4.44	-0.01
130	Wayne Gallman	Clemson	RB	215	4.59	4.60	-0.01
131	Corey Levin	Tennessee-Chattanooga	OL	307	5.15	5.16	-0.01
132	Ryan Glasgow	Michigan	DT	302	5.11	5.13	-0.02
133	Aaron Jones	Texas-El Paso	RB	208	4.54	4.56	-0.02
134	Jayon Brown	UCLA	LB	231	4.68	4.70	-0.02
135	Tashawn Bower	LSU	DE	250	4.80	4.82	-0.02
136	Chad Hansen	California	WR	202	4.51	4.53	-0.02
137	Scott Orndoff	Pittsburgh	TE	253	4.82	4.84	-0.02
138	K.D. Cannon	Baylor	WR	182	4.39	4.41	-0.02
139	Derek Barnett	Tennessee	DE	259	4.85	4.88	-0.03
140	Dalvin Tomlinson	Alabama	DT	310	5.16	5.19	-0.03
141	Kareem Hunt	Toledo	RB	216	4.59	4.62	-0.03
142	Sean Harlow	Oregon St.	OG	303	5.12	5.15	-0.03
143	Jack Tocho	N.C. State	CB	202	4.51	4.54	-0.03
144	Garrett Sickels	Penn St.	DE	261	4.87	4.90	-0.03
145	Matt Milano	Boston College	OLB	223	4.64	4.67	-0.03
146	Jamal Carter	Miami	S	218	4.61	4.64	-0.03
147	Conor McDermott	UCLA	OT	307	5.15	5.18	-0.03
148	Antonio Garcia	Troy	OT	302	5.11	5.15	-0.04
149	Deshaun Watson	Clemson	QB	221	4.62	4.66	-0.04
150	Ken Ekanem	Virginia Tech	DL	257	4.84	4.88	-0.04
151	Rasul Douglas	West Virginia	CB	209	4.55	4.59	-0.04
152	Michael Tyson	Cincinnati	S	204	4.52	4.56	-0.04
153	Shalom Luani	Washington St.	S	202	4.51	4.55	-0.04
154	Jamari Staples	Louisville	WR	195	4.47	4.51	-0.04
155	Joshua Dobbs	Tennessee	QB	216	4.59	4.64	-0.05
156	Freddie Stevenson	Florida St.	FB	234	4.70	4.75	-0.05
157	Malachi Dupre	LSU	WR	196	4.47	4.52	-0.05
158	Nate Hairston	Temple	CB	196	4.47	4.52	-0.05
159	Tarik Cohen	North Carolina A&T	RB	179	4.37	4.42	-0.05
160	Kyle Fuller	Baylor	CB	190	4.44	4.49	-0.05
161	Shelton Gibson	West Virginia	WR	191	4.44	4.50	-0.06
162	Sidney Jones	Washington	CB	186	4.41	4.47	-0.06
163	Josh Reynolds	Texas A&M	WR	194	4.46	4.52	-0.06
164	Travin Dural	LSU	WR	202	4.51	4.57	-0.06
165	Al-Quadin Muhammad	Miami	DE	253	4.82	4.88	-0.06
166	Corey Clement	Wisconsin	RB	220	4.62	4.68	-0.06
167	John Johnson	Boston College	S	208	4.54	4.61	-0.07
168	Jadar Johnson	Clemson	S	206	4.53	4.60	-0.07
169	Keon Hatcher	Arkansas	WR	212	4.57	4.64	-0.07
170	Dare Ogunbowale	Wisconsin	RB	213	4.58	4.65	-0.07
171	David Sharpe	Florida	OT	343	5.36	5.44	-0.08
172	Tedric Thompson	Colorado	FS	204	4.52	4.60	-0.08
173	Rushel Shell	West Virginia	RB	227	4.66	4.74	-0.08
174	Hayden Plinke	Texas-El Paso	TE	264	4.88	4.97	-0.09
175	Treston Decoud	Oregon St.	CB	206	4.53	4.62	-0.09
176	Justin Vogel	Miami	P	219	4.61	4.70	-0.09
177	Hardy Nickerson	Illinois	LB	232	4.69	4.78	-0.09
178	Ashton Lampkin	Oklahoma St.	CB	189	4.43	4.52	-0.09
179	Ejuan Price	Pittsburgh	DE	241	4.74	4.84	-0.10
180	Cameron Sutton	Tennessee	CB	188	4.42	4.52	-0.10
181	Isaac Asiata	Utah	OG	323	5.24	5.34	-0.10
182	Cooper Kupp	Eastern Washington	WR	204	4.52	4.62	-0.10
183	Sam Tevi	Utah	OT	311	5.17	5.27	-0.10
184	Keevan Lucas	Tulsa	WR	192	4.45	4.55	-0.10
185	Adam Bisnowaty	Pittsburgh	OT	304	5.13	5.23	-0.10
186	Noel Thomas	Connecticut	WR	205	4.53	4.63	-0.10
187	Davon Godchaux	LSU	DT	310	5.16	5.27	-0.11
188	Dan Feeney	Indiana	OG	305	5.13	5.24	-0.11
189	Jerod Evans	Virginia Tech	QB	232	4.69	4.80	-0.11
190	Jourdan Lewis	Michigan	CB	188	4.42	4.54	-0.12
191	Davis Webb	California	QB	229	4.67	4.79	-0.12
192	Erik Austell	Charleston Southern	OT	301	5.11	5.23	-0.12
193	Ethan Cooper	Indiana (PA)	OG	322	5.24	5.36	-0.12
194	Ryan Switzer	North Carolina	WR	181	4.38	4.51	-0.13
195	Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego St.	RB	176	4.35	4.48	-0.13
196	Jalen "Teez" Tabor	Florida	CB	199	4.49	4.62	-0.13
197	Jarron Jones	Notre Dame	DT	316	5.20	5.33	-0.13
198	Gabe Marks	Washington St.	WR	189	4.43	4.56	-0.13
199	Nico Siragusa	San Diego St.	OG	319	5.22	5.35	-0.13
200	DeShone Kizer	Notre Dame	QB	233	4.70	4.83	-0.13
201	Avery Gennesy	Texas A&M	OT	318	5.21	5.35	-0.14
202	Damontae Kazee	San Diego St.	CB	184	4.40	4.54	-0.14
203	Isaiah Ford	Virginia Tech	WR	194	4.46	4.61	-0.15
204	Patrick Mahomes	Texas Tech	QB	225	4.65	4.80	-0.15
205	Zach Banner	USC	OT	353	5.42	5.58	-0.16
206	Artavis Scott	Clemson	WR	193	4.45	4.61	-0.16
207	Corn Elder	Miami	CB	183	4.39	4.55	-0.16
208	Stevie Tu'ikolovatu	USC	DT	331	5.29	5.45	-0.16
209	Tanzel Smart	Tulane	DT	296	5.08	5.24	-0.16
210	Kendrick Bourne	Eastern Washington	WR	203	4.51	4.68	-0.17
211	Nathan Peterman	Pittsburgh	QB	226	4.65	4.82	-0.17
212	Dorian Johnson	Pittsburgh	OG	300	5.10	5.27	-0.17
213	Channing Stribling	Michigan	CB	188	4.42	4.60	-0.18
214	Victor Bolden	Oregon St.	WR	178	4.36	4.54	-0.18
215	Lorenzo Jerome	St. Francis (PA)	S	204	4.52	4.70	-0.18
216	Jaleel Johnson	Iowa	DT	316	5.20	5.38	-0.18
217	Jahad Thomas	Temple	RB	190	4.44	4.62	-0.18
218	James Quick	Louisville	WR	186	4.41	4.60	-0.19
219	Art Maulet	Memphis	DB	189	4.43	4.62	-0.19
220	Pat Elflein	Ohio St.	C	303	5.12	5.32	-0.20
221	Kevin Davis	Colorado St.	LB	235	4.71	4.91	-0.20
222	Jordan Morgan	Kutztown (PA)	OG	309	5.16	5.36	-0.20
223	Nate Theaker	Wayne St. (MI)	OG	315	5.19	5.41	-0.22
224	Travis Rudolph	Florida St.	WR	189	4.43	4.65	-0.22
225	Devine Redding	Indiana	RB	205	4.53	4.76	-0.23
226	Julie'n Davenport	Bucknell	OT	318	5.21	5.45	-0.24
227	Sam Rogers	Virginia Tech	FB	231	4.68	4.93	-0.25
228	Trent Taylor	Louisiana Tech	WR	181	4.38	4.63	-0.25
229	Justin Senior	Mississippi St.	OT	331	5.29	5.55	-0.26
230	Dan Skipper	Arkansas	OT	309	5.16	5.42	-0.26
231	Cooper Rush	Central Michigan	QB	228	4.67	4.93	-0.26
232	Cameron Lee	Illinois St.	OG	312	5.18	5.44	-0.26
233	Mitch Leidner	Minnesota	QB	226	4.65	4.93	-0.28
234	Drew Morgan	Arkansas	WR	190	4.44	4.74	-0.30
235	Chase Roullier	Wyoming	C	312	5.18	5.54	-0.36
236	Jon Toth	Kentucky	C	307	5.15	5.51	-0.36
237	Jerry Ugokwe	William & Mary	OT	321	5.23	5.61	-0.38
238	Sefo Liufau	Colorado	QB	232	4.69	5.08	-0.39
239	Colin Holba	Louisville	LS	248	4.79	5.19	-0.40
240	Cameron Johnston	Ohio St.	P	194	4.46	4.92	-0.46
241	Jake Elliott	Memphis	K	167	4.30	4.79	-0.49
242	Damien Mama	USC	OG	334	5.31	5.84	-0.53
243	Bradley Northnagel	California	LS	243	4.76	5.30	-0.54

Some other notes: Leonard Fournette ran the best weight-adjusted 40 for all running backs, while WR John Ross had the best weight-adjusted 40 time for receivers. Ross, of course, ran the 40 in a record 4.22 seconds, but he also weighed in at only 188 pounds. By comparison, Garrett was 84 pounds heavier and took “only” 0.42 more seconds. That’s 2 pounds of additional weight he was carrying for every hundredth of a second, while the regression says that 1.65 pounds of weight should cost an extra 0.01 seconds.

Tagged as: Combine

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