Paxton Lynch was the 26th pick in the 2016 Draft, but it looks like his Broncos (and perhaps NFL) career is coming to a close. As a rookie, he sat on the bench behind Trevor Siemian, who was taken with the 25t0h pick in the 2015 Draft and vastly outplayed Lynch during the summer of ’16 to win the job. And in 2017, Lynch missed time with shoulder and ankle injuries, but he also was the third most productive QB on a bottom-5 passing offense, looking worse than both Siemian and Brock Osweiler. Lynch has now fallen to third on the team’s depth chart even with Siemian and Osweiler gone: Case Keenum was brought in to be the team’s starter, and Chad Kelly — the 253rd pick in the ’17 Draft — has moved ahead of Lynch on the depth chart.
That’s right: the Broncos 1st round pick in 2016 has now been beaten out by 7th round picks from both the 2015 and 2017 drafts.
Let’s assume Lynch finishes 2018 with zero touchdown passes. That would give him 4 career touchdown passes through three seasons. The graph below shows quarterbacks drafted from 1992 to 2015 plus Lynch, with the X-Axis representing draft slot and the Y-Axis showing touchdown passes through three years. Lynch is the red dot.
Here’s the same data but using draft value (rather than draft pick), plotted in reverse order. Again, Lynch is the red dot.
So yeah, Lynch is a pretty big outlier. How big? Who are the worst, highly-drafted quarterbacks through three years?
Akili Smith was the 3rd pick in the 1999 Draft, JaMarcus Russell was the 1st pick in the 2007 Draft, and Ryan Leaf was the 2nd pick in the 1998 Draft. Those three are a great start to building a Mount Rushmore of the biggest bust quarterbacks of the last 25 years. Smith had 5 TDs through three seasons, Russell 18, and Leaf 13.
Alex Smith (1st, ’05) and Michael Vick (1st, ’01) both went on to have good NFL careers, but they had just 19 and 22 TDs through three seasons, respectively. Vick, of course, was an enormously valuable runner and was a Pro Bowler in his second season; he only shows up because he mostly sat on the bench as a rookie and was injured in his third year.
Heath Shuler (3rd, 1994) had just 13 touchdown passes through three seasons, and was a clear bust.
Aaron Rodgers (24th, 2005) had only 1 touchdown pass through three seasons, but he had a good excuse: he sat on the bench all three years behind Brett Favre.
Jim Druckenmiller (26th, 1997) had just one touchdown pass in his entire career. Perhaps like Lynch, he failed to make it with the team that drafted him to a third season. Lynch and Druckenmiller are the only two quarterbacks selected with the 26th pick in the last 25 years, and are also the two worst players drafted with that pick.
Rex Grossman (22nd, 2003) had just 4 touchdown passes through three seasons, constantly losing the job due to injuries or ineffectiveness. The Bears had seven different quarterbacks start between 3 and 15 games from 2003 to 2005, and none were any good.
There have been just three quarterbacks since 1992 to be drafted in the first round and throw fewer than 5 touchdown passes through three seasons: Rodgers, Grossman, and Druckenmiller. It seems like Lynch has a very good chance to become the fourth.