Post your playoff predictions in the comments. Here are mine:
Wild Card Round
The AFC South has sent the Colts or Texans to the playoffs each year since 2008; this year, the other two AFC South teams are going to the playoffs. Unfortunately for Tennessee, it’s hard to find much to like about the Titans.
The Chiefs destroyed, in Houston, a better AFC South opponent on the road in this exact slot (first playoff game) two years ago. Marcus Mariota and Alex Smith both finished the year 9-6, but that’s about all they had in common.
The Chiefs biggest vulnerability is their pass defense, but that’s not something Tennessee is likely to exploit. Four months ago, Eric Decker and Corey Davis were supposed to transform the Titans passing game, but that hasn’t happened yet. The duo had their best games of the season two weeks ago (combining for 12 receptions and 164 yards), and Tennessee will need something similar to upset the Chiefs.
In 2016, Tennessee beat the Chiefs on a last-second field goal, in a game where Smith was held to a 56.1 passer rating. If the Titans do that again, they’d be the favorites, but that’s unlikely to happen.
Prediction: Kansas City 31, Tennessee 23
This is the marquee game of the weekend: the #1 QB by ANY/A in 2016 vs. the #1 QB by ANY/A in 2017. But the biggest difference, at least subjectively, appears on the sidelines.
For Los Angeles, Sean McVay, OC Matt LaFleur, and DC Wade Phillips have helped make Los Angeles the most surprising team of 2017 west of Florida. McVay is a frontrunner for Coach of the Year, Phillips is a Hall of Fame caliber defensive coordinator, but LaFleur has a pretty good resume, too: he’s now coached the #1 QB each of the last two years, as he was the Falcons quarterbacks coach last season. And the Rams stars are coming off of a de facto bye week, after sitting out what turned out to be a meaningless week 17 game (after the Saints lost).
Atlanta fans, meanwhile, have spent the season complaining about their offensive coordinator. Kyle Shanahan (HC SF) is gone, and Steve Sarkisian’s offense hasn’t lived up to the absurd expectations set by the 2016 Falcons. The table below shows Ryan’s 2016, Ryan’s 2017, and Goff’s 2017. The results speak for themselves:
If the Rams offense is as good as the Falcons offense, this game isn’t going to be competitive, given Los Angeles having a much better defense and the home field advantage. It feels like coaching is going to carry the day for the Rams, who have completed one of the greatest offensive turnarounds in league history. Los Angeles averaged 14.0 PPG last season and 29.9 PPG this year, a 15.9 PPG increase that eclipsed not just what the 1999 Rams did, but every other team since 1950.
Prediction: Los Angeles 27, Atlanta 20
Sunday January 7, 2018
The Marcell Dareus revenge game! There’s also some symmetry here: Twenty-one years ago, in the first playoff game in Jaguars history, Jacksonville went into Buffalo as 8.5-point underdogs and upset the Bills. This time around, Buffalo is in the playoffs for the first time in 18 seasons, and heads to Jacksonville as 8.5-point underdogs. Can they pull the upset?
Buffalo beat Jacksonville at home last season, but that was a better Bills team and a much worse Jacksonville team. How much better are the Jaguars? In half of Jacksonville’s 16 games this season, the Jaguars have won by double digits. That’s not half of wins: that’s half of all games. And the Jaguars have won half of their eight home games by 16+ points.
Buffalo? They’ve been outscored by 56 points in eight road games. The Bills have lost 4 games this year by 20+ points, and the Jaguars have won 6 games by 20+ points. A blowout is certainly on the table for this game, particularly if the Jacksonville defense gets an early lead. On the other hand, a low-scoring, Blake Bortles ugly fest is always on the table, too.
Jacksonville 37, Buffalo 13 or Jacksonville 16, Buffalo 14
The Saints and the Panthers both finished with an 11-5 record, but in very different ways.
Passing: New Orleans finished 1st in ANY/A; Carolina finished 21st. Big Advantage Saints.
Rushing: New Orleans and Carolina both finished in the top 5 in rushing yards. Remove kneels, and New Orleans ranked 1st in yards per carry and tied for 1st in first downs per carry, while Carolina ranked 8th in YPC and 5th in first downs per carry. Slight Advantage Saints.
Pass Defense: New Orleans finished 10th in pass defense; Carolina finished 20th. Advantage Saints.
Rushing Defense: Carolina ranked 3rd in rushing yards allowed, while the Saints finished 16th. After removing kneels, Carolina finished 10th in YPC allowed; New Orleans finished 24th. Carolina finished 8th in first downs per carry; New Orleans finished 28th. Big Advantage Panthers.
So the real question: can Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short, Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, and Shaq Thompson shut down Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram? A month ago, they couldn’t, as they rushed 23 times for 145 yards. But even if they can, the Saints passing game and pass defense has such an advantage on Carolina that it’s hard to find the path to victory for Carolina.
New Orleans 27, Carolina 19
Division Round
Steelers over Jaguars
Patriots over Chiefs
Saints over Eagles
Vikings over Rams
Conference Championship
Patriots over Steelers
Vikings over Saints (Revenge game!!)
Super Bowl
Vikings over Patriots
Post your 2017 playoff predictions in the comments below!