Yesterday, I took another look at the draft value chart and the appropriate values we should assign to each draft pick. One conclusion was that the value of all draft picks has increased, as more AV is going to players on rookie contracts.

Today, I want to specifically examine the claim that since the NFL instituted the rookie wage scale as part of the 2011 CBA, teams are giving more playing time and production to players on rookie contracts. For all graphs today, I will be separating players into two categories: players who are in their first 4 seasons will be graphed in red, and veterans in their 5th seasons or later will be graphed in black.

Let’s start with Approximate Value, the catch-all metric created by Pro-Football-Reference.  As you can see, AV shifted from veterans to rookies in 2012, and the trend doesn’t seem likely to reverse itself anytime soon.

If we look at games started by all players, we see a similar trend: now, nearly as many starts are by players in their first 4 seasons as by all other players.

What about some defensive metrics?  I combined sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles for all defensive players to get a sense of how many of those game-changing defensive plays came by players on rookie contracts compared to all other players.  As it turns out, in 2018, it was more likely than not that a big defensive play comes from a player on a rookie deal:

What about if we look at a more generic measure of defensive play in total tackles?  This is probably a better way to measure playing time given to defensive players, and the results are even more extreme.  In this graph, you can really see the shift in tackles going from veterans to players on rookie deals over the last two decades:

Finally, what about a metric for offensive players? I combined passing yards, rushing yards, and receiving yards to just analyze total yards by all offensive players.   With the exception of a weird year in 2016, we see a similar trend: there’s a noticeable bump in yards coming from players on rookie contracts compared to players on veteran contracts.

This is all consistent with prior research showing that the rookie wage scale screwed over NFL rookies and also mediocre NFL veterans. NFL teams are responding rationally, by giving players on rookie contracts more opportunities to prove themselves, because of the significant cost savings for a 3rd-year player relative to a 6th-year player.