There will be 7 new head coaches in 2018, with Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders (former HC, most recently at ESPN) joining three 2017 offensive coordinators and three 2017 defensive coordinators.
Offensive Coordinators
Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears (formerly KC OC; Chiefs ranked 4th in DVOA, 5th in my passing efficiency ratings, 4th in my rushing efficiency ratings, and 3rd in my offensive efficiency ratings).
Pat Shurmur, New York Giants (former MIN OC; Vikings ranked 5th in DVOA, 7th in passing efficiency, 19th in rushing efficiency, and 7th in offensive efficiency.
Josh McDaniels, Indianapolis Colts (former NE OC; Patriots ranked 1st in DVOA, 2nd in pass efficiency, 8th in rush efficiency, and 2nd in offensive efficiency [hire pending Super Bowl LII]
The Nagy and McDaniels hires speak for themselves: both coached top-5 offenses, and arguably top-3 offenses. As for Shurmur, he coordinated an offense that was led by two undrafted free agents. Shurmur (9-23 with the Browns) and McDaniels (11-17 with the Broncos) each have previous coaching experience, while Nagy, who turns 40 in April, spent all of his 30s working under Andy Reid.
Defensive Coordinators
While the offensive coordinators were very successful this year, the defense coordinators were… not quite as successful.
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans (former HOU DC; Texans defense ranked 23rd in DVOA, 28th in pass defense, 15th in rush defense, and 28th in overall defensive efficiency.
Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals (former CAR DC; Cardinals defense ranked 4th in DVOA, 12th in pass defense, 3rd in rush defense, and 5th in overall defensive efficiency.
Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions (former NE DC; Patriots defense ranked 31st in DVOA, 21st in pass defense, 30th in rush defense, 26th in overall defense. [hire pending Super Bowl LII]
Patricia and Vrabel both coached bad defenses this year. Sure, the Patriots ranked 5th in points allowed, but New England ranked 27th in both 3-and-outs forced and punts per drive forced. The Texans suffered numerous injuries, and were better in DVOA, but Houston still finished last in points allowed.
What do you think about this distinction between offensive and defensive coordinators? Would you “ding” Patricia or Vrabel — both of whom have Patriots ties — for their poor units in 2017? Conversely, is it too simplistic to just say that Nagy and McDaniels coached elite offenses in 2017 and therefore make great head coaching candidates for 2018?