Nick Foles is going to miss at least the next month, and perhaps the rest of the year, with a broken collarbone. To the Eagles’ rescue comes…. Mark Sanchez?

Yes, the quarterback who in his best years provided more below-average value than any other passer in NFL history. That Mark Sanchez. Of course, the Jets passing attack has not been very good in the post-Sanchez environment: in fact, Geno Smith has been even worse than Sanchez. Statistically, Sanchez has been the best of the six quarterbacks who have thrown 20+ passes for New York since 2009. Of course, being better than Geno Smith is a pretty low bar; the more telling statistic is that and Sanchez ranked 2nd-to-last — in between Blaine Gabbert and Matt Cassel — in both passer rating and ANY/A in his final year in New York.

On the other hand, Foles has not been particularly good this year, either. Some regression was to be expected based on his otherworldly 2013 numbers, but he’s suffered noticeable declines in most categories in 2014:

Sure, a 59.9% completion rate would be a career high for Sanchez by several points, but it represents a significant decline from last year’s number. More significantly, his yards per completion average has plummeted, while his interception rate skyrocketed. As a result, Foles is averaging just 5.92 ANY/A, good enough for only 24th in the NFL right now.

What does this mean for Sanchez? I’d love to see your predictions in the comments, if only as a time capsule for where we are now. On twitter, some seem to be positive about Sanchez’ likelihood of success in Philadelphia. Mike Clay does projections for a living, and he tweeted out this stat line for Sanchez:

178/311, 2125 yards, 15 TD, 12 INT

Sanchez was sacked on 6.3% of his dropbacks with the Jets, and lost 6.5 yards per sack. If we incorporate those numbers into Mike’s projections, we would get 20.9 sacks for just under 136 yards, which comes out to a 5.27 ANY/A average. That, of course, would not be good: Derek Carr is averaging exactly 5.27 ANY/A per pass, and ranks 29th out of 33 qualifying passers.

The issues with Sanchez have always been accuracy (as evidenced by his ugly completion rates) and his ability to read defenses (as evidenced by his ugly turnover rates). He averaged 4.78 ANY/A with the Jets, and I would think he should have no problem besting that just because (a) he won’t be playing under Rex Ryan, (b) he will be playing under Chip Kelly, (c) he won’t be playing with the Jets, and (d) he will be playing with Jeremy Maclin, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, and the rest of the Eagles.

So what’s a good projection for Sanchez? Besting Foles’ 5.92 ANY/A rate would not be shocking, although I would certainly take the under.  I’m inclined to agree with Clay’s numbers, and project Sanchez to finish with around a 5.3 ANY/A average for the rest of the year.  But I’m even more curious to hear what you guys think.

Would there be precedent for a career turnaround in a new city?  I suppose Kerry Collins offers some hope. Like Sanchez, he was the 5th pick in the draft as being a star at a college powerhouse. He experienced great team success — reaching a conference championship game — very early in his career, which said more about his teammates than it did Collins. Over the first four seasons of his career, he ranked 2nd to last in ANY/A, before turning his career around. Sanchez ranked last in ANY/A from ’09 to ’12, but can he turn it around? My guess is no, but he’s probably landed in the very best possible situation for him. If he can’t make it in Philadelphia, he won’t be able to make it anywhere. And if he can make it in Philadelphia? That would just add insult to the injury that Ryan and the Jets are currently experiencing.