Quarterback performance on third and fourth downs

by Chase Stuart on November 7, 2012

So far this season, teams have converted on 37.2% of all pass plays on third or fourth downs. Looking at success rates on these downs helps to identify which quarterbacks are keeping drives alive for their teams and coming through in the most important situations. For example, Peyton Manning leads the league with an impressive 52.6% rate. How impressive is that?

The table below lists the conversion rates for quarterbacks on passing plays (excluding scrambles) on third and fourth downs; the table is sorted by the far right column, which shows how many third downs over average each quarterback converted. This is calculated by subtracting from the number of actual conversions the number of expected conversions (which is 37.2% multiplied by the number of third down plays):

Rank	Quarterback	Plays	Conv	Rate	3DCovOvAvg
1	Peyton Manning	78	41	52.6%	12
2	Ben Roethlisberger	97	46	47.4%	9.9
3	Matt Ryan	79	39	49.4%	9.6
4	Drew Brees	104	47	45.2%	8.3
5	Andrew Luck	99	44	44.4%	7.1
6	Matthew Stafford	102	45	44.1%	7
7	Tom Brady	86	38	44.2%	6
8	Matt Schaub	72	32	44.4%	5.2
9	Matt Hasselbeck	78	34	43.6%	5
10	Matt Cassel	71	31	43.7%	4.6
11	Ryan Fitzpatrick	80	34	42.5%	4.2
12	Tony Romo	91	38	41.8%	4.1
13	Michael Vick	95	39	41.1%	3.6
14	Aaron Rodgers	94	37	39.4%	2
15	Jay Cutler	84	33	39.3%	1.7
16	Christian Ponder	94	35	37.2%	0
17	Philip Rivers	84	30	35.7%	-1.3
18	Ryan Tannehill	78	27	34.6%	-2
19	Eli Manning	89	31	34.8%	-2.1
20	Alex Smith	61	20	32.8%	-2.7
21	Josh Freeman	80	27	33.8%	-2.8
22	Kevin Kolb	68	22	32.4%	-3.3
23	Sam Bradford	87	29	33.3%	-3.4
24	Mark Sanchez	96	32	33.3%	-3.7
25	Russell Wilson	83	27	32.5%	-3.9
26	Brandon Weeden	111	37	33.3%	-4.3
27	John Skelton	59	16	27.1%	-6
28	Robert Griffin III	78	23	29.5%	-6
29	Carson Palmer	92	28	30.4%	-6.3
30	Cam Newton	68	19	27.9%	-6.3
31	Joe Flacco	78	21	26.9%	-8
32	Blaine Gabbert	84	22	26.2%	-9.3
33	Andy Dalton	77	16	20.8%	-12.7

Peyton Manning has been exceptional on third downs, with Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan not far behind him. On the other side of the coin, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Cam Newton have struggled with higher expectations in 2012, particularly on third downs.

But not all third downs are created equally. The number of yards needed is obviously strongly correlated with the success rate:

Dist	Plays	Conv	Rate
1-2 yds	345	184	53.3%
3-4 yds	461	224	48.6%
5-6 yds	539	231	42.9%
7-10 yds	965	330	34.2%
11-14 yds	285	70	24.6%
15-20 yds	213	27	12.7%
21+ yds	55	0	0%

It makes no sense to group all third down conversions together when the amount of yards needed is such a critical element. So here’s what I did. For each quarterback’s third or fourth down passing play, I credited him with the expected number of first downs based on the amount of yards to go. So if a quarterback had a 3rd and 5, I credited him with 0.429 expected first downs. If he threw for a first down, he gets credit for +0.571 first downs above average; if he fails, he gets credited with being 0.429 first downs below average. Add that up for each quarterback in each situation, and you can get a true measure of how each quarterback fared on third downs.

For each quarterback, the table below lists his number of third/fourth down pass plays, number of converted third/fourth downs, his expected first down rate based on the yards to go in each situation, his actual first down conversion rate, and the difference between those two numbers. The final two columns show the number of expected first downs (based on the amount of yards to do in each third/fourth down) and the far right column shows the number of first downs converted over average.

Rank	Quarterback	Plays	Conv	Exp1D_Rt	Act1D_Rt	Diff	EXP1D	1DOverEXP
1	Peyton Manning	78	41	39.3%	52.6%	13.3	30.6	10.4
2	Ben Roethlisberger	97	46	37.1%	47.4%	10.4	36	10
3	Matt Ryan	79	39	38.8%	49.4%	10.6	30.6	8.4
4	Andrew Luck	99	44	37%	44.4%	7.5	36.6	7.4
5	Tom Brady	86	38	36%	44.2%	8.2	30.9	7.1
6	Matt Cassel	71	31	35.3%	43.7%	8.3	25.1	5.9
7	Matthew Stafford	102	45	38.5%	44.1%	5.6	39.3	5.7
8	Drew Brees	104	47	40.3%	45.2%	4.9	41.9	5.1
9	Matt Hasselbeck	78	34	37.3%	43.6%	6.3	29.1	4.9
10	Michael Vick	95	39	36%	41.1%	5	34.2	4.8
11	Tony Romo	91	38	36.9%	41.8%	4.9	33.5	4.5
12	Matt Schaub	72	32	39.4%	44.4%	5.1	28.4	3.6
13	Jay Cutler	84	33	34.9%	39.3%	4.3	29.4	3.6
14	Ryan Fitzpatrick	80	34	38.3%	42.5%	4.2	30.6	3.4
15	Aaron Rodgers	94	37	37.2%	39.4%	2.2	35	2
16	Ryan Tannehill	78	27	35.5%	34.6%	-0.9	27.7	-0.7
17	Philip Rivers	84	30	36.8%	35.7%	-1.1	30.9	-0.9
18	Josh Freeman	80	27	35.6%	33.8%	-1.8	28.5	-1.5
19	Christian Ponder	94	35	39.2%	37.2%	-2	36.8	-1.8
20	Kevin Kolb	68	22	35.2%	32.4%	-2.8	23.9	-1.9
21	Alex Smith	61	20	36.9%	32.8%	-4.1	22.5	-2.5
22	Cam Newton	68	19	33.6%	27.9%	-5.7	22.8	-3.8
23	Carson Palmer	92	28	35%	30.4%	-4.6	32.2	-4.2
24	Sam Bradford	87	29	38.3%	33.3%	-5	33.3	-4.3
25	Robert Griffin III	78	23	35.1%	29.5%	-5.6	27.4	-4.4
26	Mark Sanchez	96	32	38.3%	33.3%	-4.9	36.7	-4.7
27	Eli Manning	89	31	40.6%	34.8%	-5.8	36.1	-5.1
28	John Skelton	59	16	36.2%	27.1%	-9	21.3	-5.3
29	Brandon Weeden	111	37	38.3%	33.3%	-5	42.6	-5.6
30	Russell Wilson	83	27	39.8%	32.5%	-7.3	33	-6
31	Joe Flacco	78	21	36.2%	26.9%	-9.2	28.2	-7.2
32	Blaine Gabbert	84	22	35.7%	26.2%	-9.5	30	-8
33	Andy Dalton	77	16	36.5%	20.8%	-15.8	28.1	-12.1

If you sort by the “Exp1D_Rt” column you get a sense of which quarterbacks throw most frequently on third/fourth down in easy situations. Drew Brees ranked 4th in raw third down conversion percentage, but after adjusting for distance, he drops to 8th. Eli Manning takes an even more severe hit, and he ranks just 27th in adjusted third down success. On the other hand, Cam Newton has been placed in the worst third down position, which I noted a couple of weeks ago.

The AFC North holds the #2 quarterback in third/fourth down performance, Ben Roethlisberger, and then three of the worst five quarterbacks in these situations. Andrew Luck has been magnificent on third down, one of the reasons he ranks highly in ESPN’s Total QBR. But for now, Peyton Manning remains the king.

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