Quarterback Starts as a Favorite, And Records As A Favorite/Underdog

by Chase Stuart on July 8, 2018

Yesterday, we looked at quarterback records against the spread. In that post, I noted that Tom Brady and the Patriots have been favorites in a remarkable 52 consecutive games, which would nearly be an NFL record if Brady hadn’t missed any games. For his career, the Patriots have been favored in 232 games that Brady has started, been an underdog 52 times, and the line has been a Pick’em in 4 games.

The table below shows the number of games that each quarterback’s team has been a favorite, underdog, or pick’em since 1978. For quarterbacks who started games before 1978, like Terry Bradshaw, I have played ** next to their name to indicate that this data does not cover their whole career. Post-1978 Bradshaw, however, has the highest percentage of games as a favorite, followed by Steve Young and then Brady.

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Rk	Quarterback	FYr	LYr	Starts	Fav	Dog	Pk	Fav %
1	Terry Bradshaw**	1978	1983	78	66	11	1	0.853
2	Steve Young	1985	1999	157	130	26	1	0.831
3	Tom Brady	2001	2017	288	232	52	4	0.813
4	Joe Montana	1979	1994	187	148	33	6	0.807
5	Danny White	1978	1987	102	80	18	4	0.804
6	Peyton Manning	1998	2015	292	230	58	4	0.795
7	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	2017	219	168	51	0	0.767
8	Aaron Rodgers	2008	2017	158	120	38	0	0.759
9	Mark Rypien	1988	1995	85	64	21	0	0.753
10	Russell Wilson	2012	2017	108	80	26	2	0.75
11	Jim Plunkett**	1980	1986	67	50	17	0	0.746
12	Pat Haden**	1978	1981	40	29	11	0	0.725
13	Tony Romo	2006	2015	133	94	39	0	0.707
14	Kurt Warner	1999	2009	129	87	40	2	0.682
15	Jeff Hostetler	1988	1997	88	60	28	0	0.682
16	Jim Kelly	1986	1996	177	118	54	5	0.681
17	Dan Fouts**	1978	1987	135	91	43	1	0.678
18	John Elway	1983	1998	252	166	77	9	0.677
19	Brett Favre	1992	2010	322	215	103	4	0.674
20	Dan Marino	1983	1999	258	173	84	1	0.672

Showing 1 to 20 of 154 entries

How has each quarterback’s team fared — straight up, not against the spread — when favored to win? Under Brady, the Patriots have won 188 games and lost 44 as a favorite, a winning percentage of 81%. To adjust for games played (some quarterbacks here have less than 15 games started as a favorite), I’ve included a column for adjusted winning percentage: this adds 40 games of 0.500 ball to each quarterback’s record. So Brady’s teams drop to 0.765, but due to his larger sample size, that gives his Patriots the best record as a favorite. There are no real surprises in the top 15, but the table below shows this information for all 154 quarterbacks identified in the table above:

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Rk	Quarterback	FYr	LYr	Fav	Wins as Fav	Loss as Fav	Act Win %	Adj Win %
1	Tom Brady	2001	2017	232	188	44	0.81	0.765
2	Peyton Manning	1998	2015	230	176	54	0.765	0.726
3	Joe Montana	1979	1994	148	112	36	0.757	0.702
4	John Elway	1983	1998	166	124	41	0.75	0.701
5	Steve Young	1985	1999	130	98	32	0.754	0.694
5	Brett Favre	1992	2010	215	157	58	0.73	0.694
7	Jim McMahon	1982	1994	57	47	10	0.825	0.691
8	Aaron Rodgers	2008	2017	120	89	31	0.742	0.681
9	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	2017	168	121	47	0.72	0.678
10	Dan Marino	1983	1999	173	124	49	0.717	0.676
11	Russell Wilson	2012	2017	80	61	19	0.763	0.675
12	Joe Flacco	2008	2017	106	78	28	0.736	0.671
13	Jim Kelly	1986	1996	118	86	32	0.729	0.671
14	Troy Aikman	1989	2000	121	88	33	0.727	0.671
15	Phil Simms	1979	1993	98	72	26	0.735	0.667

Showing 1 to 15 of 154 entries

What about the reverse? This is where it gets interesting. Brady’s Patriots have a remarkable 31-21 record as an underdog, a 0.596 winning percentage. By way of comparison, since re-joining the NFL in 1999, the Cleveland Browns are 33-31 as a favorite! This means the Patriots have been more likely to win games they are expected to lose than the Browns have been to win games they have been expected to win.

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Rk	Quarterback	FYr	LYr	UnderDog	Wins as U	Loss as U	Act Win %	Adj Win %
1	Tom Brady	2001	2017	52	31	21	0.596	0.554
2	Jim Plunkett**	1980	1986	17	11	6	0.647	0.544
3	Vince Young	2006	2011	26	15	11	0.577	0.53
4	Terry Bradshaw**	1978	1983	11	7	4	0.636	0.529
5	Danny White	1978	1987	18	10	8	0.556	0.517
6	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	2017	51	27	24	0.529	0.516
7	David Woodley	1980	1985	22	12	10	0.545	0.516
8	Jake Delhomme	1999	2010	41	21	20	0.512	0.506
9	Jeff Hostetler	1988	1997	28	14	14	0.5	0.5
9	Andrew Luck	2012	2016	34	17	17	0.5	0.5
9	Dan Pastorini**	1978	1981	20	10	10	0.5	0.5
9	Ken Stabler**	1978	1983	30	15	15	0.5	0.5
13	Richard Todd**	1978	1984	46	22	23	0.489	0.494
14	Russell Wilson	2012	2017	26	12	13	0.481	0.492
15	Jay Fiedler	1999	2004	23	11	12	0.478	0.492

Showing 1 to 15 of 154 entries

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