Quarterback Wins: Outlier Seasons

by Chase Stuart on July 24, 2014

Testaverde led the Jets to the AFCCG in 1998.

The 1998 season was one of my favorite years in NFL history. It was also a pretty weird one. We had Terrell Davis rushing for 2,000 yards, rookies Randy Moss and Fred Taylor making defenses look silly, and a quartet of old quarterbacks stun the football world. Doug Flutie came out of ~~nowhere~~ Canada to lead the Bills to a 7-3 record after being out of the NFL for nine years. Randall Cunningham, who had retired after the ’96 season, came off the bench in ’98 to produce one of the best backup seasons in NFL history. The other two quarterbacks are the stars of this post.

Vinny Testaverde had a very up-and-down career, although he was almost certainly a much better quarterback than you remember. Okay, Testaverde has lost more games than any other quarterback, but he played on some really bad teams throughout his career. Testaverde retired with a career winning percentage of 0.423. In 1998, he started 13 games for the Jets; based on that career winning percentage, we would have expected him to win 5.5 games in 1998. Instead, Testaverde went 12-1 in the regular season, giving him 6.5 more wins than we would expect. If that sounds remarkable to you, it should: that’s the 2nd largest discrepancy of any quarterback in NFL history in a single season (minimum 40 career wins).

The largest? That honor belongs to Chris Chandler, who went 13-1 in that same season. For his career, Chandler had a 0.441 winning percentage, so we would have expected him to win 6.2 out of 14 games. Instead, Chandler finished with 6.8 more wins than expected. ^[1]Some might argue that when calculating this “wins over expectation” metric, we should exclude the quarterback’s record from that season. I didn’t want to do that, though, … Continue reading

The table below lists the 75 largest outliers. Cunningham’s ’98 season comes in 19th place.

Rk	Quarterback	Age	Year	Tm	Sea Rec	Car Win%	Sea Win%	Exp Wins	Diff
1	Chris Chandler	33	1998	ATL	13-1	0.441	0.929	6.2	6.8
2	Vinny Testaverde	35	1998	NYJ	12-1	0.423	0.923	5.5	6.5
3	Marc Bulger	26	2003	STL	12-3	0.432	0.8	6.5	5.5
4	Mark Brunell	29	1999	JAX	13-2	0.517	0.867	7.7	5.3
5	Kerry Collins	36	2008	TEN	12-3	0.45	0.8	6.8	5.3
6	Billy Wade	33	1963	CHI	11-1-2	0.482	0.857	6.8	5.2
7	Trent Green	33	2003	KAN	13-3	0.496	0.813	7.9	5.1
8	Tobin Rote	35	1963	SDG	11-3	0.435	0.786	6.1	4.9
9	Steve DeBerg	36	1990	KAN	11-5	0.382	0.688	6.1	4.9
10	Jake Plummer	31	2005	DEN	13-3	0.507	0.813	8.1	4.9
11	Kurt Warner	30	2001	STL	14-2	0.574	0.875	9.2	4.8
12	Kerry Collins	28	2000	NYG	12-4	0.45	0.75	7.2	4.8
13	John Hadl	33	1973	RAM	12-2	0.518	0.857	7.3	4.7
14	Boomer Esiason	27	1988	CIN	12-4	0.462	0.75	7.4	4.6
15	Matt Hasselbeck	30	2005	SEA	13-3	0.526	0.813	8.4	4.6
16	Steve Bartkowski	28	1980	ATL	12-4	0.465	0.75	7.4	4.6
17	Fran Tarkenton	33	1973	MIN	12-2	0.531	0.857	7.4	4.6
18	Fran Tarkenton	35	1975	MIN	12-2	0.531	0.857	7.4	4.6
19	Randall Cunningham	35	1998	MIN	13-1	0.611	0.929	8.6	4.4
20	Phil Simms	31	1986	NYG	14-2	0.597	0.875	9.6	4.4
21	Daunte Culpepper	23	2000	MIN	11-5	0.41	0.688	6.6	4.4
22	Mark Rypien	29	1991	WAS	14-2	0.603	0.875	9.6	4.4
23	Bart Starr	28	1962	GNB	13-1	0.618	0.929	8.6	4.4
24	Jim Everett	26	1989	RAM	11-5	0.418	0.688	6.7	4.3
25	Ben Roethlisberger	22	2004	PIT	13-0	0.669	1	8.7	4.3
26	Jeff George	32	1999	MIN	8-2	0.371	0.8	3.7	4.3
27	Steve DeBerg	37	1991	KAN	10-5	0.382	0.667	5.7	4.3
28	Earl Morrall	34	1968	BAL	13-1	0.626	0.929	8.8	4.2
29	Alex Smith	27	2011	SFO	13-3	0.55	0.813	8.8	4.2
30	Dan Marino	23	1984	MIA	14-2	0.613	0.875	9.8	4.2
31	Bert Jones	25	1976	BAL	11-3	0.49	0.786	6.9	4.1
32	Philip Rivers	25	2006	SDG	14-2	0.617	0.875	9.9	4.1
33	Drew Brees	30	2009	NOR	13-2	0.595	0.867	8.9	4.1
34	Craig Morton	34	1977	DEN	12-2	0.566	0.857	7.9	4.1
35	Bernie Kosar	23	1986	CLE	12-4	0.495	0.75	7.9	4.1
36	Joe Theismann	34	1983	WAS	14-2	0.621	0.875	9.9	4.1
37	Joe Namath	25	1968	NYJ	11-3	0.496	0.786	6.9	4.1
38	Jim Hart	31	1975	STL	11-3	0.497	0.786	7	4
39	Roman Gabriel	27	1967	RAM	11-1-2	0.57	0.857	8	4
40	Jeff Garcia	31	2001	SFO	12-4	0.5	0.75	8	4
41	Aaron Rodgers	28	2011	GNB	14-1	0.667	0.933	10	4
42	Bob Griese	28	1973	MIA	12-1	0.619	0.923	8	4
43	Dan Fouts	28	1979	SDG	12-4	0.506	0.75	8.1	3.9
44	Troy Aikman	26	1992	DAL	13-3	0.57	0.813	9.1	3.9
45	Donovan McNabb	28	2004	PHI	13-2	0.612	0.867	9.2	3.8
46	Matt Schaub	31	2012	HOU	12-4	0.511	0.75	8.2	3.8
47	George Blanda	35	1962	HOU	11-3	0.514	0.786	7.2	3.8
48	Ron Jaworski	29	1980	PHI	12-4	0.514	0.75	8.2	3.8
49	Tony Romo	27	2007	DAL	13-3	0.583	0.813	9.3	3.7
50	Ken O'Brien	25	1985	NYJ	11-5	0.459	0.688	7.3	3.7
51	Y.A. Tittle	36	1962	NYG	12-2	0.596	0.857	8.3	3.7
52	Kordell Stewart	29	2001	PIT	13-3	0.585	0.813	9.4	3.6
53	John Brodie	35	1970	SFO	10-3-1	0.491	0.75	6.9	3.6
54	Joe Ferguson	30	1980	BUF	11-5	0.462	0.688	7.4	3.6
55	Tom Brady	30	2007	NWE	16-0	0.775	1	12.4	3.6
56	Kerry Collins	24	1996	CAR	9-3	0.45	0.75	5.4	3.6
57	Fran Tarkenton	36	1976	MIN	10-2-1	0.531	0.808	6.9	3.6
58	Ken Anderson	32	1981	CIN	12-4	0.529	0.75	8.5	3.5
59	Jim Kelly	31	1991	BUF	13-2	0.631	0.867	9.5	3.5
60	Carson Palmer	26	2005	CIN	11-5	0.467	0.688	7.5	3.5
61	Vinny Testaverde	31	1994	CLE	9-4	0.423	0.692	5.5	3.5
62	Jim Plunkett	36	1983	RAI	10-3	0.5	0.769	6.5	3.5
63	Jim Plunkett	33	1980	OAK	9-2	0.5	0.818	5.5	3.5
64	Jim Plunkett	35	1982	RAI	8-1	0.5	0.889	4.5	3.5
65	Drew Brees	32	2011	NOR	13-3	0.595	0.813	9.5	3.5
66	Steve McNair	33	2006	BAL	13-3	0.595	0.813	9.5	3.5
67	Steve Young	31	1992	SFO	14-2	0.657	0.875	10.5	3.5
68	Jim Harbaugh	28	1991	CHI	11-5	0.471	0.688	7.5	3.5
69	Norm Snead	33	1972	NYG	8-5	0.351	0.615	4.6	3.4
70	Jake Plummer	29	2003	DEN	9-2	0.507	0.818	5.6	3.4
71	Jim McMahon	26	1985	CHI	11-0	0.691	1	7.6	3.4
72	Jim Harbaugh	27	1990	CHI	10-4	0.471	0.714	6.6	3.4
73	Kurt Warner	28	1999	STL	12-3	0.574	0.8	8.6	3.4
74	Earl Morrall	38	1972	MIA	9-0	0.626	1	5.6	3.4
75	John Elway	36	1996	DEN	13-2	0.643	0.867	9.6	3.4

There’s a lot of fascinating results in the table — back-to-back Steve DeBerg seasons in Kansas City, Jim Plunkett finishing with 3.5 more wins than expected three times in a four-year period, a 22-year-old Ben Roethlisberger on one end of the age spectrum, and a 38-year-old Earl Morrall on the other — but I’ll leave the commentary to you guys today. ^[2]Okay, one more from me. Norm Snead makes the list in a year when he went 8-5? How is that possible? Because he had only one other season in his career with a winning record, a 2-0 mark in the prior … Continue reading

I also looked at the 75 biggest outliers in the negative direction. And while there were some great rookies in the ’98 class, the best of them turned out to be Peyton Manning. Of course, it just didn’t turn out that way in 1998. That year, Manning went 3-13 as the Colts starter, the most out-of-character-bad quarterback record season of all time.

We also see a rookie Troy Aikman occupy the third slot on the list, with 2013 Matt Ryan being the fourth biggest negative outlier (no other player from 2013 appears on either list).

Rk	Quarterback	Age	Year	Tm	Sea Rec	Car Win%	Sea Win%	Exp Wins	Diff
1	Peyton Manning	22	1998	IND	3-13	0.696	0.188	11.1	-8.1
2	Steve Young	25	1986	TAM	2-12	0.657	0.143	9.2	-7.2
3	Troy Aikman	23	1989	DAL	0-11	0.57	0	6.3	-6.3
4	Matt Ryan	28	2013	ATL	4-12	0.638	0.25	10.2	-6.2
5	Jim Kelly	26	1986	BUF	4-12	0.631	0.25	10.1	-6.1
6	Brett Favre	36	2005	GNB	4-12	0.624	0.25	10	-6
7	Bert Jones	30	1981	BAL	2-13	0.49	0.133	7.3	-5.3
8	John Elway	30	1990	DEN	5-11	0.643	0.313	10.3	-5.3
9	Peyton Manning	25	2001	IND	6-10	0.696	0.375	11.1	-5.1
10	Warren Moon	28	1984	HOU	3-13	0.502	0.188	8	-5
11	Norm Van Brocklin	32	1958	PHI	2-9-1	0.624	0.208	7.5	-5
12	Dave Krieg	37	1995	ARI	4-12	0.56	0.25	9	-5
13	Fran Tarkenton	22	1962	MIN	2-11-1	0.531	0.179	7.4	-4.9
14	Jeff George	24	1991	IND	1-15	0.371	0.063	5.9	-4.9
15	Craig Morton	33	1976	NYG	2-10	0.566	0.167	6.8	-4.8
16	Dan Pastorini	24	1973	HOU	0-10	0.479	0	4.8	-4.8
17	Phil Simms	25	1980	NYG	3-10	0.597	0.231	7.8	-4.8
18	Dan Pastorini	23	1972	HOU	1-11	0.479	0.083	5.7	-4.7
19	Bill Nelsen	24	1965	PIT	2-10	0.561	0.167	6.7	-4.7
20	Aaron Rodgers	25	2008	GNB	6-10	0.667	0.375	10.7	-4.7
21	Y.A. Tittle	38	1964	NYG	1-8-2	0.596	0.182	6.6	-4.6
22	Drew Brees	24	2003	SDG	2-9	0.595	0.182	6.5	-4.5
23	Marc Bulger	31	2008	STL	2-13	0.432	0.133	6.5	-4.5
24	Y.A. Tittle	24	1950	BAL	1-8	0.596	0.111	5.4	-4.4
25	Steve McNair	32	2005	TEN	4-10	0.595	0.286	8.3	-4.3
26	Bobby Hebert	36	1996	ATL	3-10	0.56	0.231	7.3	-4.3
27	John Hadl	22	1962	SDG	1-9	0.518	0.1	5.2	-4.2
28	Charlie Conerly	32	1953	NYG	3-8	0.65	0.273	7.2	-4.2
29	Jake Plummer	26	2000	ARI	3-11	0.507	0.214	7.1	-4.1
30	Joe Ferguson	34	1984	BUF	1-10	0.462	0.091	5.1	-4.1
31	Neil O'Donnell	32	1998	CIN	2-9	0.55	0.182	6.1	-4.1
32	Jim Plunkett	25	1972	NWE	3-11	0.5	0.214	7	-4
33	Jack Kemp	32	1967	BUF	3-8	0.633	0.273	7	-4
34	Ken Anderson	30	1979	CIN	4-11	0.529	0.267	7.9	-3.9
35	Billy Kilmer	31	1970	NOR	2-9	0.539	0.182	5.9	-3.9
36	Bart Starr	24	1958	GNB	0-6-1	0.618	0.071	4.3	-3.8
37	Jim Zorn	23	1976	SEA	2-12	0.415	0.143	5.8	-3.8
38	Terry Bradshaw	23	1971	PIT	5-8	0.677	0.385	8.8	-3.8
39	Dan Marino	27	1988	MIA	6-10	0.613	0.375	9.8	-3.8
40	Bart Starr	23	1957	GNB	3-8	0.618	0.273	6.8	-3.8
41	Kurt Warner	34	2005	ARI	2-8	0.574	0.2	5.7	-3.7
42	Steve DeBerg	25	1979	SFO	2-13	0.382	0.133	5.7	-3.7
43	Jim Everett	28	1991	RAM	3-13	0.418	0.188	6.7	-3.7
44	Don Meredith	25	1963	DAL	4-9	0.588	0.308	7.6	-3.6
45	Jim McMahon	30	1989	SDG	4-7	0.691	0.364	7.6	-3.6
46	Greg Landry	33	1979	BAL	2-10	0.464	0.167	5.6	-3.6
47	Boomer Esiason	34	1995	NYJ	2-10	0.462	0.167	5.5	-3.5
48	Carson Palmer	31	2010	CIN	4-12	0.467	0.25	7.5	-3.5
49	Boomer Esiason	30	1991	CIN	3-11	0.462	0.214	6.5	-3.5
50	Joe Ferguson	27	1977	BUF	3-11	0.462	0.214	6.5	-3.5
51	Jim Hart	35	1979	STL	3-10	0.497	0.231	6.5	-3.5
52	Jon Kitna	34	2006	DET	3-13	0.403	0.188	6.5	-3.5
53	Joe Namath	32	1975	NYJ	3-10	0.496	0.231	6.4	-3.4
54	Kurt Warner	31	2002	STL	0-6	0.574	0	3.4	-3.4
55	Bernie Kosar	27	1990	CLE	3-10	0.495	0.231	6.4	-3.4
56	Joe Montana	26	1982	SFO	3-6	0.713	0.333	6.4	-3.4
57	Norm Snead	22	1961	WAS	1-12-1	0.351	0.107	4.9	-3.4
58	Tom Brady	25	2002	NWE	9-7	0.775	0.563	12.4	-3.4
59	Chad Pennington	31	2007	NYJ	1-7	0.543	0.125	4.3	-3.3
60	Joe Theismann	31	1980	WAS	6-9	0.621	0.4	9.3	-3.3
61	Fran Tarkenton	21	1961	MIN	2-8	0.531	0.2	5.3	-3.3
62	Neil O'Donnell	30	1996	NYJ	0-6	0.55	0	3.3	-3.3
63	Jim Everett	33	1996	NOR	3-12	0.418	0.2	6.3	-3.3
64	Ron Jaworski	32	1983	PHI	5-11	0.514	0.313	8.2	-3.2
65	Steve DeBerg	31	1985	TAM	1-10	0.382	0.091	4.2	-3.2
66	Steve DeBerg	24	1978	SFO	1-10	0.382	0.091	4.2	-3.2
67	Bob Griese	22	1967	MIA	3-7	0.619	0.3	6.2	-3.2
68	Jim Harbaugh	34	1997	IND	2-9	0.471	0.182	5.2	-3.2
69	Richard Todd	27	1980	NYJ	4-12	0.449	0.25	7.2	-3.2
70	Marc Bulger	30	2007	STL	2-10	0.432	0.167	5.2	-3.2
71	George Blanda	38	1965	HOU	3-9	0.514	0.25	6.2	-3.2
72	Rodney Peete	26	1992	DET	2-8	0.517	0.2	5.2	-3.2
73	Y.A. Tittle	29	1955	SFO	4-8	0.596	0.333	7.2	-3.2
74	Brian Sipe	32	1981	CLE	5-11	0.509	0.313	8.1	-3.1
75	Roman Gabriel	35	1975	PHI	2-7	0.57	0.222	5.1	-3.1

A few quarterbacks appear in back-to-back seasons on the list, including young versions of Bart Starr, Fran Tarkenton, Dan Pastorini, and DeBerg. Leave your thoughts in the comments. As always, both tables are fully searchable and sortable.

References[+]

References
↑1	Some might argue that when calculating this “wins over expectation” metric, we should exclude the quarterback’s record from that season. I didn’t want to do that, though, because that would lead to more extreme differences in winning percentages, which would tilt the list towards players with smaller sample sizes. Which I didn’t think fit the intent of this post.
↑2	Okay, one more from me. Norm Snead makes the list in a year when he went 8-5? How is that possible? Because he had only one other season in his career with a winning record, a 2-0 mark in the prior year. Snead was at times a very good quarterback and at times a not so good one, but his record was an unthinkably bad 52-99-7.

Tagged as: wins

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