Some quick thoughts on all the week 17 action.
Baltimore 20, Cleveland 10
The Ravens ranked 5th in DVOA entering week 17, so it sure felt like Baltimore was a worthy playoff team. But Baltimore looked horrible in week 16 against Houston and then trailed 10-3 entering the third quarter against a Browns team starting Connor Shaw at quarterback.
How good are the Ravens? Baltimore swept the NFC South, and beat the Titans and Jaguars. The four other Ravens wins: a split with the Steelers, a sweep of the Browns, and an impressive-at-the-time win over Miami. That means the Ravens finished the year with just one win teams with a winning record. The losses were all to good teams: Pittsburgh, a sweep by the Bengals, the Colts, the Texans, and the Chargers. So the 2014 Ravens went 1-6 against teams with winning records, and 9-0 against the rest of the NFL.
Given what happened with Joe Flacco and the team in 2012, I don’t think anyone is going to brand Baltimore as a team that can’t beat good teams. But you can be sure that if, say, the Bengals had this split, that narrative would dominate the headlines. On the other hand, the Ravens are one of just six teams to finish 2014 with a +100 points differential. The silver living here is that the Ravens didn’t just beat bad teams, but that Baltimore tended to do so convincingly.
Houston 23, Jacksonville 17
J.J. Watt got to 20 sacks. Not only is he the only player since 1982 to record 20 sacks in two different seasons, he’s the only 3-4 defensive end to record 20 sacks in a season, period. Watt also recorded a record 11 sacks in the last five weeks of the year (h/t Rivers McCown).
Blake Bortles finished the season with a 69.5 passer rating, the lowest in the NFL. The Jaguars will pick third overall in 2015, giving them a top-three pick for the third year in a row (joining Bortles and Luke Joeckel), a top-five pick for the fourth year in a row (Justin Blackmon), and a top 10 pick for the eighth year in a row (Blaine Gabbert, Tyson Alualu, Eugene Monroe, Derrick Harvey).
Kansas City 19, San Diego 7
- Justin Houston recorded four sacks, bringing his 2014 total to an incredible 22.
- Travis Kelce, a Football Perspective favorite, caught 7 of his 8 targets for 84 yards. Over the last four weeks of the year he gained 284 receiving yards, which could lead to a breakout 2015 season. On a per route run basis, Kelce was at 2.21 entering week 17, easily ahead of all tight ends not named Rob Gronkowski. That number will only increase after this game.
- Philip Rivers was sacked seven times. And while the running game was effective, you have to think San Diego will make upgrading the offensive line a priority for 2015.
Minnesota 13, Chicago 9
Matt Forte caught 8 receptions, bringing his season total to 102. That’s the most by a running back in a single season in NFL history, breaking the record of 101 held by Larry Centers. Teddy Bridgewater solidified his standing as the top rookie quarterback of 2014. And that’s it for this game.
Jets 37, Dolphins 24
In 2007, the Jets won a meaningless week 17 game in overtime against the Chiefs. That kicked New York out of the top three (and the chance to draft Matt Ryan), and the Jets instead settled on Vernon Gholston.
Last year, the Jets won meaningless games in weeks 16 and 17. Had they lost those games, there’s a good chance New York would have drafted Odell Beckham. Instead, they drafted Calvin Pryor.
This year, the Jets won meaningless games against the Titans and Dolphins. That gets them out of the top 2 and third in line among the quarterback-needy teams (Bucs, Titans) in a draft highlighted by two quarterbacks.
These memories would be painful if I still had the capacity for feeling. It is now, presumably, only a matter of time before the Jets move on from Rex Ryan. New York has missed the playoffs in four straight years, and have the 4th worst points differential in the NFL over the last three years.
As for Miami? Mike Wallace apparently quit/chose not to come back in/was benched, while Ryan Tannehill‘s ANY/A average was below league average for the third time in his three-year career.
But let’s end things on a positive note. Geno Smith, what WAS that?! With the best game of his career, Smith joined some impressive company.
Philadelphia 34, Giants 26
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Odell Beckham, Jr.
He finished with 1300 yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games. Over the last 11 weeks of the year, he was easily the best fantasy football receiver on the planet. On Sunday, Beckham caught 12 catches for 185 yards and a touchdown. He set the 2014 record for targets in a game with 21. He’s good.
I suppose the Eagles merit a mention here, too. Philadelphia finished 10-6, making them a worthy playoff team in a system where playoff spots go to the teams with the most wins. The Eagles also enter 2015 with serious questions at quarerback: is Mark Sanchez (who is a free agent) going to return? What about Nick Foles? Frankly, I’m not sure either player is the answer, although the Eagles benefit from both being very cheap. Perhaps that’s Chip Kelly’s ultimate plan: always have a quarterback on a rookie/cheap contract, and spend money elsewhere. If your head coach is an offensive guru, there’s some wisdom to that philosophy.
Buffalo 17, New England 9
Sure, the Patriots treated this like a preseason game, but congrats to the Bills for recording their first winning season since 2004.
As of yesterday, the Patriots led the NFL in points scored. In final 2014 standings, New England will finish 4th in scoring. And that is all I have on this game.
Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 10
I was not planning on talking about this game, because why? Then I checked the box score. The Titans picked up 50 passing yards on 35 dropbacks. What the what?
Charlie Whitehurst went 12/28 for 72 yards. Jordan Palmer went 1/3 for 7 yards. And the duo was sacked four times for -29 yards. The Titans averaged 1.4 net yards per pass attempt, the worst by any team since this Brady Quinn performance in week 17 of the 2012 season.
Fun with multiple end points: this was the first game since 2007 where a team had 30+ pass attempts and threw for 50 or fewer yards.
On the Colts side of the ledger: Reggie Wayne caught an 80-yard touchdown. If you had Titans passing yards against the Colts +29 vs. Reggie Wayne’s longest catch against the Titans, I’m sorry, but you are now homeless.
New Orleans 23, Tampa Bay 20
Drew Brees was excellent through fourteen weeks, but really struggled in the Saints final two games. New Orleans finishes a very disappointing 7-9.
Josh McCown was kind enough to ensure that his 2014 passer rating would match his 2014 passer rating through 16 weeks. As a result, this article requires no revisions! Celebrate the small victories in life, folks.
The Bucs blew this game late, which got the team the number one pick. Ironically, the Saints game-winning drive may wind up costing New Orleans a division title one day, if Tampa Bay can capitalize on that first overall selection.
Dallas 44, Washington 17
DeMarco Murray finishes the year first in carries, first in rushing yards, first in yards from scrimmage, and tied for first in rushing touchdowns. Murray set the Cowboys franchise record for rushing yards in a season, with 1,845.
Dez Bryant? He finished with 1,320 yards and 16 touchdowns! Bryant finished with three more receiving touchdowns than any other player, and he set the Dallas franchise record in the process.
Tony Romo? He finished with the top passer rating and completion percentage in the NFL.
This sets up an excellent matchup with the Lions next week, owners of the top rush defense (and top three overall defense) in the NFL.
Carolina 34, Atlanta 3
It would be easy to make fun of the Panthers. The went two full months without a win. They were 3-8-1. Cam Newton (5-8-1) will become the first quarterback to start a playoff game in a year where he finished three games under .500. I mean, COME ON!
But while the Falcons were 6-9, this was a team that had outscored opponents by 40 points (12th best) through three quarters this year, and then had a habit of collapsing in the fourth. Atlanta had been blown out just twice this year, and both games came on the road in the first half of the season. Atlanta had been pretty tough at home, and playing better of late. And then the Panthers demolished them.
Carolina had been outscored by 66 points this year entering week 17, so maybe there’s not much to get excited about here. But the Panthers looked great on Sunday, and are deservedly favorites at home against the Cardinals next week.
Oh, and Matt Ryan? That was not pretty.
Green Bay 30, Detroit 20
Aaron Rodgers secured his MVP award today. Rodgers was hurt in the middle of the game, and the Lions outscored the Packers by 14 points; the rest of the game, Green Bay was 24 points better than Detroit. Rodgers’ numbers are not historically insane, but he easily finished as the league leader in ANY/A.
The Packers secured the #2 seed, which could set us up for an NFC Championship Game that is a rematch of the NFL Kickoff game: Green Bay at Seattle. Jordy Nelson became the first Packer to hit the 1,500 yard mark (although Don Hutson and Billy Howton both averaged more receiving yards per game in a season), while Randall Cobb finished with 12 touchdowns. The Green Bay offense makes the Packers a legitimate Super Bowl contender, obviously.
As for the Lions? Matt Stafford threw three touchdowns, but he averaged just 4.7 net yards per attempt. With the best supporting cast of his career (i.e., Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson), I thought Stafford may take that next step forward and become a top ten quarterback. Instead, he ended the year with a league-average ANY/A ratio.
San Francisco 20, Arizona 17
The Cardinals had a great season, but end the year with two straight losses, with both games coming under Ryan Lindley. If Drew Stanton isn’t available next week, the Panthers could wind up turning that game into a laugher; even with a healthy Stanton, Arizona is going to have to play much better to upset the Panthers.
The Cards were 9-1, and I wrote about how much they had outstripped their Pythagenpat record when the team was 11-3. But the quarterback situation has appeared to sink the team’s hopes. Unless Bruce Arians has another trick up his sleeve (in addition to playing a team with a losing record in the playoffs), Arizona is not a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Denver 47, Oakland 14
The Broncos scored 47 points, and Peyton Manning did not throw a touchdown. Manning has now thrown 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. This has suddenly become C.J. Anderson‘s team, as the running back rushed 13 times for 87 yards and three touchdowns. Over the last six weeks, Anderson leads the NFL with 648 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. What were the odds of this in October? 0.001%?
Derek Carr had a very good rookie year in some statistics (sacks, interception rate), but he was terrible in pure yards per attempt. He finished with a 5.46 yards per attempt average, which ranks ranks 81st out of the 90 rookie quarterbacks since the merger (note that this stat is *not* era adjusted).
Seahawks 20, Rams 6
This game was 6-0 Rams at halftime, before the Seahawks woke up from their slumber. Seattle actually allowed fewer yards this year than the team did in 2013, but that was more the product of an offense that dominated time of possession than the actual ability of the defense.
Of course, being “not as good as the 2013 Seahawks” doesn’t mean much, given that the 2013 Seahawks were one of the greatest defenses ever. The 2014 version did get to join the history books, though: Seattle allowed 39 points in the final six weeks of the season, setting the mark by a team in the 16-game era. The previous best in games 11-16 was 42, set by the 2000 Titans. Given that this statistic is not era adjusted, that’s unbelievable.
The opposing offenses were not great, but allowing 3 to Arizona, 3 to San Francisco, 14 to Philadelphia, 7 to San Francisco, 6 to Arizona, and 6 to St. Louis is pretty insane. Seattle has not allowed a touchdown in four of its last six games, and held its opponent to single digits in five of six. This is 1970s Steelers territory.
Of course, the offense can look like a 1970s offense at times, too. The Seahawks have scored 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games.
Steelers 27, Bengals 17
With the win, the world gets what it finally has asked for: a Ravens/Steelers game in primetime. Saturday night will mark the third primetime game involving these two teams this year, after a Thursday night matchup in week two and a Sunday night game in week nine. This will be the 11th time since 2008 that these two teams are meeting in a primetime or playoff game. Yes, there is such a thing as too much Ravens/Steelers, and we are there.
On the other hand, this should be a very good game. Both of 2014 games had 20-point margins of victory, but that seems unlikely to repeat in the playoffs. With Antonio Brown and Steve Smith (and much worse defenses), this game won’t look too similar to the slobberknockers of your older brother’s era. The big question here is the status of Le’Veon Bell, who left early with an injury. If he’s not healthy,
Trivia note: Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger both ended the year with 4,952 yards, and will share the passing crown. Side trivia note: No quarterback has ever led the league in passing yards and won the Super Bowl in the same year.
As for the Bengals? The loss here means Cincinnati will have to travel to Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs. But instead of talking about Andy Dalton and the Bengals playoff woes, let’s look at the most meaningless tie game ever: Carolina/Cincinnati!
The Bengals finished 10-5-1. Had Cincinnati beat Carolina, they would have been 11-5, but they would still have lost the AFC North to the 11-5 Steelers based on Pittsburgh’s head-to-head sweep. Had Cincinnati lost to Carolina, they would have been 10-6, and would still have been the 5 seed over the 10-6 Ravens based on Cincinnati’s head-to-head sweep. In other words, win, lose, or draw against the Panthers, the Bengals would have finished as the 5 seed in the AFC.
Carolina, of course, finished 7-8-1. Had the Panthers beaten the Bengals, they would have been 8-8. That would have perhaps helped the team avoid some name-calling, but it would not have changed their playoff status in any way. Had Carolina lost to Cincinnati, well, the 7-9 Panthers would have won the division over the 7-9 Saints based on a better division record (4-2 vs. 3-3). Win, lose, or draw against the Bengals, the Panthers were going to be the 4 seed in the NFC.