Last month, I wondered whether previous Justin Blackmons — i.e., the first receiver selected in the draft — lived up to their lofty draft status. There have been 42 drafts since 1970, but only five times has the highest selected wideout gained the most receiving yards among all rookie receivers. The long-term odds were slightly better, though, as nearly a quarter of those highest selected receivers ended up with the most receiving yards in his draft class.

So how do things look at the running back position? The Bills drafted Willis McGahee knowing he would miss his entire rookie season, while Bo Jackson chose to play baseball instead of playing with the Buccaneers. Ki-Jana Carter and Larry Stegent suffered season-ending injuries in the pre-season of their rookie years, making them inapplicable for our purposes, assuming Richardson stays healthy. What about the other 38 running backs who were the first at their position selected in the draft since the merger?

Over 40% of those highest drafted running backs led their class ^[1]Note that this only includes drafted running backs. in rushing yards as a rookie, while exactly half gained at least 75% as many rushing yards as the the most productive rookie running back. That may not be particularly impressive in the abstract, but represents a much better track record than we saw at the wide receiver position. On the other hand, recent history has not been particularly great: in the past 10 years, arguably every top rookie running back outside of Adrian Peterson disappointed, as even Moreno failed to meet the expectations of many.

Year	Running Back	Team	Pick	College	Rush Yds	% of Leader	Top Rookie
2011	Mark Ingram	NOR	28	Alabama	474	0.53	DeMarco Murray
2010	C.J. Spiller	BUF	9	Clemson	283	0.42	Ryan Mathews
2009	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	12	Georgia	947	1.00	Knowshon Moreno
2008	Darren McFadden	OAK	4	Arkansas	499	0.39	Steve Slaton
2007	Adrian Peterson	MIN	7	Oklahoma	1341	1.00	Adrian Peterson
2006	Reggie Bush	NOR	2	USC	565	0.52	Joseph Addai
2005	Ronnie Brown	MIA	2	Auburn	907	0.77	Cadillac Williams
2004	Steven Jackson	STL	24	Oregon St.	673	0.59	Kevin Jones
2003	Willis McGahee	BUF	23	Miami (FL)	--	--	Domanick Williams
2002	William Green	CLE	16	Boston Col.	887	0.59	Clinton Portis
2001	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	5	TCU	1236	1.00	LaDainian Tomlinson
2000	Jamal Lewis	BAL	5	Tennessee	1364	0.92	Mike Anderson
1999	Edgerrin James	IND	4	Miami (FL)	1553	1.00	Edgerrin James
1998	Curtis Enis	CHI	5	Penn St.	497	0.41	Fred Taylor
1997	Warrick Dunn	TAM	12	Florida St.	978	0.87	Corey Dillon
1996	Lawrence Phillips	STL	6	Nebraska	632	0.46	Eddie George
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	CIN	1	Penn St.	--	--	Curtis Martin
1994	Marshall Faulk	IND	2	San Diego St.	1282	1.00	Marshall Faulk
1993	Garrison Hearst	PHO	3	Georgia	264	0.18	Jerome Bettis
1992	Tommy Vardell	CLE	9	Stanford	369	0.65	Vaughn Dunbar
1991	Leonard Russell	NWE	14	Arizona St.	959	1.00	Leonard Russell
1990	Blair Thomas	NYJ	2	Penn St.	620	0.66	Emmitt Smith
1989	Barry Sanders	DET	3	Oklahoma St.	1470	1.00	Barry Sanders
1988	Gaston Green	RAM	14	UCLA	117	0.10	John Stephens
1987	Alonzo Highsmith	HOU	3	Miami (FL)	106	0.16	Christian Okoye
1986	Bo Jackson	TAM	1	Auburn	--	--	Rueben Mayes
1985	George Adams	NYG	19	Kentucky	498	1.00	George Adams
1984	Greg Bell	BUF	26	Notre Dame	1100	1.00	Greg Bell
1983	Eric Dickerson	RAM	2	SMU	1808	1.00	Eric Dickerson
1982	Darrin Nelson	MIN	7	Stanford	136	0.20	Marcus Allen
1981	George Rogers	NOR	1	South Carolina	1674	1.00	George Rogers
1980	Billy Sims	DET	1	Oklahoma	1303	1.00	Billy Sims
1979	Ottis Anderson	STL	8	Miami (FL)	1605	1.00	Ottis Anderson
1978	Earl Campbell	HOU	1	Texas	1450	1.00	Earl Campbell
1977	Ricky Bell	TAM	1	USC	436	0.43	Tony Dorsett
1976	Chuck Muncie	NOR	3	California	659	1.00	Chuck Muncie
1975	Walter Payton	CHI	4	Jackson St.	679	0.74	Mike Thomas
1974	Bo Matthews	SDG	2	Colorado	328	0.28	Don Woods
1973	Otis Armstrong	DEN	9	Purdue	90	0.09	Boobie Clark
1972	Franco Harris	PIT	13	Penn St.	1055	1.00	Franco Harris
1971	John Riggins	NYJ	6	Kansas	769	0.70	John Brockington
1970	Larry Stegent	STL	8	Texas A&M	--	--	Duane Thomas

Richardson is the favorite to be the most productive rookie running back, although “the field” appears to be a more enticing proposition. But Cleveland drafted Richardson for what he can do for the next five or ten years, which will ultimately be much more significant than how he performs in 2012. Even if the highest drafted running back is unlikely to lead his draft class in rushing yards as a rookie, is he more likely (than the field) to lead his draft class in career rushing yards?

The table below shows the career rushing yards gained by the top drafted running back in each of the last 42 drafts, along with how he performed relative to the best runner (as measured by total rushing yards) selected in the same draft:

Year	Running Back	Team	Pick	College	Rush Yds	% of Leader	Top Career
2011	Mark Ingram	NOR	28	Alabama	474	0.53	DeMarco Murray
2010	C.J. Spiller	BUF	9	Clemson	844	0.48	Ryan Mathews
2009	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	12	Georgia	1905	0.63	LeSean McCoy
2008	Darren McFadden	OAK	4	Arkansas	2627	0.47	Chris Johnson
2007	Adrian Peterson	MIN	7	Oklahoma	6752	1.00	Adrian Peterson
2006	Reggie Bush	NOR	2	USC	3176	0.46	Maurice Jones-Drew
2005	Ronnie Brown	MIA	2	Auburn	4951	0.65	Frank Gore
2004	Steven Jackson	STL	24	Oregon St.	9093	1.00	Steven Jackson
2003	Willis McGahee	BUF	23	Miami (FL)	7366	1.00	Willis McGahee
2002	William Green	CLE	16	Boston Col.	2109	0.21	Clinton Portis
2001	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	5	TCU	13684	1.00	LaDainian Tomlinson
2000	Jamal Lewis	BAL	5	Tennessee	10607	1.00	Jamal Lewis
1999	Edgerrin James	IND	4	Miami (FL)	12246	1.00	Edgerrin James
1998	Curtis Enis	CHI	5	Penn St.	1497	0.13	Fred Taylor
1997	Warrick Dunn	TAM	12	Florida St.	10967	0.98	Corey Dillon
1996	Lawrence Phillips	STL	6	Nebraska	1453	0.14	Eddie George
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	CIN	1	Penn St.	1144	0.08	Curtis Martin
1994	Marshall Faulk	IND	2	San Diego St.	12279	1.00	Marshall Faulk
1993	Garrison Hearst	PHO	3	Georgia	7966	0.58	Jerome Bettis
1992	Tommy Vardell	CLE	9	Stanford	1427	0.36	Edgar Bennett
1991	Leonard Russell	NWE	14	Arizona St.	3973	0.37	Ricky Watters
1990	Blair Thomas	NYJ	2	Penn St.	2236	0.12	Emmitt Smith
1989	Barry Sanders	DET	3	Oklahoma St.	15269	1.00	Barry Sanders
1988	Gaston Green	RAM	14	UCLA	2136	0.18	Thurman Thomas
1987	Alonzo Highsmith	HOU	3	Miami (FL)	1195	0.24	Christian Okoye
1986	Bo Jackson	TAM	1	Auburn	2782	0.45	Neal Anderson
1985	George Adams	NYG	19	Kentucky	886	0.11	Herschel Walker
1984	Greg Bell	BUF	26	Notre Dame	4959	0.60	Earnest Byner
1983	Eric Dickerson	RAM	2	SMU	13259	1.00	Eric Dickerson
1982	Darrin Nelson	MIN	7	Stanford	4442	0.36	Marcus Allen
1981	George Rogers	NOR	1	South Carolina	7176	0.89	Freeman McNeil
1980	Billy Sims	DET	1	Oklahoma	5106	0.95	Joe Cribbs
1979	Ottis Anderson	STL	8	Miami (FL)	10273	1.00	Ottis Anderson
1978	Earl Campbell	HOU	1	Texas	9407	1.00	Earl Campbell
1977	Ricky Bell	TAM	1	USC	3063	0.24	Tony Dorsett
1976	Chuck Muncie	NOR	3	California	6702	0.91	Mike Pruitt
1975	Walter Payton	CHI	4	Jackson St.	16726	1.00	Walter Payton
1974	Bo Matthews	SDG	2	Colorado	1566	0.24	Mark van Eeghen
1973	Otis Armstrong	DEN	9	Purdue	4453	0.75	Chuck Foreman
1972	Franco Harris	PIT	13	Penn St.	12120	1.00	Franco Harris
1971	John Riggins	NYJ	6	Kansas	11352	1.00	John Riggins
1970	Larry Stegent	STL	8	Texas A&M	0	0.00	Jim Otis

The results are actually a little less impressive here. Whereas the top drafted rookie wide receiver generally took some time to develop, the situation looks different at running back. One-third of the highest-drafted running backs finished with the most career rushing yards in their class, only slighter higher than the results we saw with wide receivers. The results look to be better across the board than they were at wide receiver, but perhaps the bigger takeaway is that the top drafted rookie runner performed slightly better as a rookie relative to his peers than he did over the course of his career. More on this tomorrow.

To highlight the issue, let’s turn this into a poll:

[poll id=”5″]

The sample sizes are not large enough to draft any significant conclusions to answer the above question. But I think it’s an interesting intellectual exercise. What do you think?

Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams