The Patriots true SRS rating is deflated if you only use regular season data.
In the table below, I have calculated the SRS of Super Bowl teams according to Pro Football Reference’s (PFR) method that considers just the regular season. [2]It looks like I get the same numbers as PFR in a bunch of cases, but I have not checked all of them. In any event, it looks like my program works. I have also added adjusted ratings that include the playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl. These set of adjusted ratings help to identify the Super Bowls that were the closest and best matchups based on teams’ performances over the entire season including the playoffs.
Note that the table includes all Super Bowls since the merger and so leaves out the first four. [3]Chase note: Seems pretty unreasonable. As always, the table is fully sortable and searchable.
| Year | Winner | Loser | PtsW | PtsL | SRS_W | SRS_L | Adj SRS_W | Adj SRS_L | Adj Diff | Adj Sum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | BAL | DAL | 16 | 13 | 0.4 | 6.9 | 2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 9.9 |
| 1971 | DAL | MIA | 24 | 3 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 19.2 |
| 1972 | MIA | WAS | 14 | 7 | 11 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 18.9 |
| 1973 | MIA | MIN | 24 | 7 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 14.1 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 24 |
| 1974 | PIT | MIN | 16 | 6 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 7 | 1 | 15.1 |
| 1975 | PIT | DAL | 21 | 17 | 14.2 | 4.2 | 14.5 | 6.5 | 8 | 20.9 |
| 1976 | OAK | MIN | 32 | 14 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 10 | 10.3 | 0.3 | 20.3 |
| 1977 | DAL | DEN | 27 | 10 | 8 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 21.3 |
| 1978 | PIT | DAL | 35 | 31 | 8.2 | 11 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 0.7 | 21.9 |
| 1979 | PIT | RAM | 31 | 19 | 11.9 | -0.6 | 12.8 | -0.1 | 12.9 | 12.7 |
| 1980 | OAK | PHI | 27 | 10 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 16.2 |
| 1981 | SFO | CIN | 26 | 21 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 0.5 | 13.7 |
| 1982 | WAS | MIA | 27 | 17 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 11 | 0.8 | 21.3 |
| 1983 | RAI | WAS | 38 | 9 | 6.8 | 13.9 | 8.6 | 15.6 | 7 | 24.2 |
| 1984 | SFO | MIA | 38 | 16 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 12 | 1.3 | 25.3 |
| 1985 | CHI | NWE | 46 | 10 | 15.9 | 5.8 | 16.8 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 24.3 |
| 1986 | NYG | DEN | 39 | 20 | 9 | 5.1 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 17.9 |
| 1987 | WAS | DEN | 42 | 10 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 10.8 |
| 1988 | SFO | CIN | 20 | 16 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 14.3 |
| 1989 | SFO | DEN | 55 | 10 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 9 | 3.9 | 21.9 |
| 1990 | NYG | BUF | 20 | 19 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 2.2 | 20.4 |
| 1991 | WAS | BUF | 37 | 24 | 16.6 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 5.1 | 12.2 | 22.4 |
| 1992 | DAL | BUF | 52 | 17 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 17.9 |
| 1993 | DAL | BUF | 30 | 13 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 5 | 16.1 |
| 1994 | SFO | SDG | 49 | 26 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 12.9 | 4 | 8.9 | 16.8 |
| 1995 | DAL | PIT | 27 | 17 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 15.6 |
| 1996 | GNB | NWE | 35 | 21 | 15.2 | 5.1 | 16.1 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 22.8 |
| 1997 | DEN | GNB | 31 | 24 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 20 |
| 1998 | DEN | ATL | 34 | 19 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 1.5 | 21.1 |
| 1999 | STL | TEN | 23 | 16 | 12 | 1.2 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 16.2 |
| 2000 | BAL | NYG | 34 | 7 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 5 | 16.2 |
| 2001 | NWE | STL | 20 | 17 | 4.3 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 14.2 | 9.5 | 18.9 |
| 2002 | TAM | OAK | 48 | 21 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 22.3 |
| 2003 | NWE | CAR | 32 | 29 | 7 | -0.9 | 7.8 | 1.7 | 6.1 | 9.5 |
| 2004 | NWE | PHI | 24 | 21 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 14.1 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 20.4 |
| 2005 | PIT | SEA | 21 | 10 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 0.5 | 19.2 |
| 2006 | IND | CHI | 29 | 17 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 1.3 | 15.9 |
| 2007 | NYG | NWE | 17 | 14 | 3.2 | 20 | 4.2 | 19.5 | 15.3 | 23.7 |
| 2008 | PIT | ARI | 27 | 23 | 9.8 | -1.9 | 10.4 | 0.9 | 9.6 | 11.3 |
| 2009 | NOR | IND | 31 | 17 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 18.9 |
| 2010 | GNB | PIT | 31 | 25 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 1.6 | 22 |
| 2011 | NYG | NWE | 21 | 17 | 1.6 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 15.4 |
| 2012 | BAL | SFO | 34 | 31 | 3 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 15.2 |
| 2013 | SEA | DEN | 43 | 8 | 13 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 11.6 | 1.3 | 24.5 |
| 2014 | NWE | SEA | 10.3 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 21.9 |
Based on playoff-adjusted SRS, here are some Super Bowls that stand out and where Sunday’s game stands in comparison:
- Starting with the closest matchup, five Super Bowls should have had point spreads within a point by playoff-adjusted SRS: 1976 (Raiders vs. Vikings), 2005 (Steelers vs. Seahawks), 1981 (49ers vs. Bengals), 1978 (Steelers vs. Cowboys), and 1982 (Redskins vs. Dolphins). The differences in SRS ratings can be taken to be point spreads, so these games all had differences of less than one point by SRS. Patriots-Seahawks ranks 19th by the difference in playoff-adjusted SRS, a bigger gap between the two teams than the very close one according to DVOA.
- Based on the sum of the SRS ratings for the teams involved, Patriots-Seahawks is a very good game, ranking 11th. It is not as good as last year’s game, however, which was only the second time since the merger that both teams had playoff-adjusted SRS ratings above 11. In terms of the sum of the SRS for the two teams, the best Super Bowl ever was 1984 (49ers vs. Dolphins). The rest of the top five were 2013 (Seahawks vs. Broncos), 1985 (Bears vs. Patriots), 1983 (Raiders vs. Redskins), and 1973 (Dolphins vs. Vikings).
- Patriots-Seahawks is the fifth-highest increase from regular-season SRS to playoff-adjusted SRS in favor of the team that led in regular-season SRS. In other words, New England was 1.9 points better than Seattle in the regular season. After two playoff games, the Patriots are now 2.9 points better. That increase of a full point comes from the Patriots’ demolition of Indianapolis and the Seahawks’ weak opposition in their first game. The only other four instances where the regular season leader stretched their lead by a point or more were four teams in a five-year span starting in 1986: the ’86 Giants, the ’87 Broncos, the ’89 49ers, and the ’90 Bills. This piece of evidence should be extremely helpful for you in making your predictions, given that these teams went 2-2 in the Super Bowl.
- In five instances, the playoffs caused adjustments of at least 2.4 points in the SRS difference between the participants, or basically should have moved the line by about two-and-a-half points. The ’86 Giants take first place on that score based on winning their two playoff games by a 66-3 margin, while their opponent won their two playoff games by a total of eight points. The rest of the top five are the ’89 49ers, the ’88 49ers, the ’98 Broncos, and the ’99 Titans. The last three of these teams trailed in regular season SRS. The ’88 49ers and ’98 Broncos were so good in the playoffs that they led in playoff-adjusted SRS.
Enjoy the game on Sunday. I will only predict that the team that scores more points has a very good chance to win. And if there is anyone out there still hanging on to two tickets and just looking for analytically-inclined Patriots’ fans, I will continue to be at ahealy1976 at gmail dot com.