Red Zone Performance Since 2002

by Chase Stuart on August 15, 2018

As noted yesterday, red zone performance is mildly correlated with team success. One team that was a big outlier last year was the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s offense made it into the red zone 63 times, but converted those trips into touchdowns just 32 times (50.8%), slightly below-average. On defense, the Steelers allowed touchdowns on 24 of 39 red zone trips, a 61.5% rate that was the 5th-worst in the league. Of course, the Steelers were actually one of the best teams in the league.

On one hand, this seems kind of silly: of course red zone performance alone won’t tell us much about a team’s record! It says nothing about a team’s turnover rate, how effective the team is at producing or preventing big plays, overall team efficiency, or special teams. Perhaps the most remarkable part is that it does tell us quite a bit.

The table below has a lot of information, so to analyze it, let’s look at the best red zone team of the modern era, the 2005 Seattle Seahawks. That year, the Seahawks offense had 60 red zone trips and scored a touchdown on 43 of them, a conversion rate of 71.7%. Given that 53% of red zone trips yield a touchdown, this means Seattle’s offense scored 11.1 more red zone touchdowns than expected. On defense, Seattle faced 47 red zone trips, and allowed just 19 touchdowns, a 40.4% conversion rate that was 6.0 touchdowns better than average. Therefore, overall, the team’s red zone performance yielded 17.1 touchdowns better than average, the most of any team since 2002. Based on the best-fit formula derived yesterday, a team’s expected winning percentage based on its red zone team value is 0.0154*(Team Value) +0.500. Since Seattle’s red zone value was +17.1, we would have expected the Seahawks to win 76.3% of their games; they actually won 81.3% of their games, a difference of 0.049.

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Year	Team	RZ Att O	RZ Sc O	Perc	Value	RZ Att D	RZ Sc D	Perc	Value	Tm Val	Exp Win%	Act Win%	Diff
2005	SEA	60	43	71.7%	11.1	47	19	40.4%	6.0	17.1	0.763	0.813	0.049
2003	KAN	54	42	77.8%	13.3	47	24	51.1%	1.0	14.3	0.720	0.813	0.093
2015	NYJ	53	35	66.0%	6.8	40	14	35.0%	7.3	14.1	0.717	0.625	-0.092
2008	IND	50	34	68.0%	7.4	47	19	40.4%	6.0	13.4	0.706	0.750	0.044
2003	GNB	52	34	65.4%	6.4	46	18	39.1%	6.4	12.8	0.697	0.625	-0.072
2009	ARI	54	38	70.4%	9.3	47	22	46.8%	3.0	12.3	0.689	0.625	-0.064
2012	NWE	70	49	70.0%	11.8	46	24	52.2%	0.4	12.2	0.689	0.750	0.061
2004	SDG	63	44	69.8%	10.5	54	27	50.0%	1.7	12.2	0.688	0.750	0.062
2002	MIA	56	36	64.3%	6.2	44	18	40.9%	5.4	11.6	0.679	0.563	-0.117
2013	DET	56	35	62.5%	5.2	42	16	38.1%	6.3	11.6	0.678	0.438	-0.241

Showing 1 to 10 of 512 entries

The biggest overachiever in terms of winning percentage relative to red zone success was the 2004 Steelers. Pittsburgh went 15-1 but was below-average in the red zone! That’s pretty tough to do, with the Steelers offense producing 4.4 fewer touchdowns than expected. Pittsburgh led the NFL in points allowed and yards allowed, so this was a defensive-driven team, but this was also extremely talented offense.

Alan Faneca and Jeff Hartings both were first-team All-Pros, while a third offensive linemen (LT Marvel Smith) joined them in the Pro Bowl. A rookie Ben Roethlisberger was the quarterback, and Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress were in the primes of their careers (Ward made the Pro Bowl, while Burress led the NFL in one advanced statistic). At running back, Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley shared duties effectively enough to help the Steelers finish second in rushing yards, and first among all teams in rushing yards by running backs. And the Steelers employed blocking fullback Dan Kreider and blocking TE Jerame Tuman to great success.

But still, Pittsburgh was one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL. A year later, though, the Steelers would be one of the best.

Tagged as: Red Zone

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