Running back success rate

by Chase Stuart on December 6, 2012

Grading running backs can be tricky; rushing yards tell much of the story but remain a function of opportunity (itself an indicator of talent). Yards per carry sounds nice but often is more misleading than revealing. Last year at Smartfootball.com I analyzed team rushing games using rush success rate, and I will do the same today. Success rate has been around for awhile – The Hidden Game of Football wrote about it in the late ’80s and Football Outsiders has been tracking it for close to a decade. Everyone has their own unique definition, it seems; here is mine.

C.J. Spiller is a success.

I started with every play from scrimmage where a running back was credited with a carry. I then removed all instances of 3rd or 4th down carries where the back needed to gain more than 5 yards for a first down, since the primary goal in these situations usually isn’t to get the first down. However, on the rare occasions where a running back did convert for the first down, those plays were kept in the data set. This has only happened 20 times this season.
On 3rd and 4th down, a success is a rush that gains a first down (or touchdown). A failure is every carry that does not result in a first down.
On 2nd down, a success is achieved when the player gains at least 50% of the yards needed for the first down. This means that 2nd-and-8 runs are failures unless they pick up 4 yards; on 2nd-and-7, the running back must also gain at least 4 yards. A rush for one yard on 2nd-and-3 is a failure, and so on.
On 1st down, a running back is credited with a successful carry if he gains at least 40% of the yards needed; therefore, four yards are required on 1st-and-10 before the running back is given credit. On 1st and goal from the 5, a two-yard gain would be considered a success.

The league average success rate by these rules is 49.8%. The table below lists all running backs with at least 50 carries, along with their number of rushes (which excludes the excluded carries), number of successful runs, and their success rate. The table is sorted by the far right column, which shows how many successes over 50% of their runs the player had. In the event of a tie, the player with more carries was ranked higher.

Rank	Name	Tm	G	Rsh	Yds	YPC	Succ	Rate	Ovr50%
1	C.J. Spiller	buf	12	136	901	6.63	84	61.8%	16
2	Willis McGahee	den	10	165	725	4.39	98	59.4%	15.5
3	Andre Brown	nyg	10	73	385	5.27	51	69.9%	14.5
4	Marshawn Lynch	sea	12	247	1119	4.53	135	54.7%	11.5
5	Ryan Mathews	sdg	10	155	620	4	85	54.8%	7.5
6	Kendall Hunter	sfo	11	71	367	5.17	43	60.6%	7.5
7	Stevan Ridley	nwe	12	224	1009	4.5	119	53.1%	7
8	Marcel Reece	rai	12	53	248	4.68	33	62.3%	6.5
9	Adrian Peterson	min	12	234	1446	6.18	123	52.6%	6
10	Fred Jackson	buf	9	98	386	3.94	55	56.1%	6
11	Daniel Thomas	mia	10	84	303	3.61	48	57.1%	6
12	Shonn Greene	nyj	12	207	799	3.86	109	52.7%	5.5
13	Ahmad Bradshaw	nyg	11	183	830	4.54	97	53%	5.5
14	Pierre Thomas	nor	12	89	425	4.78	50	56.2%	5.5
15	Daryl Richardson	ram	12	77	431	5.6	43	55.8%	4.5
16	Frank Gore	sfo	12	193	941	4.88	100	51.8%	3.5
17	Bryce Brown	phi	12	73	485	6.64	40	54.8%	3.5
18	Arian Foster	htx	12	266	1044	3.92	136	51.1%	3
19	Justin Forsett	htx	12	58	361	6.22	32	55.2%	3
20	Bilal Powell	nyj	10	69	268	3.88	37	53.6%	2.5
21	Joique Bell	det	12	57	326	5.72	31	54.4%	2.5
22	Danny Woodhead	nwe	12	53	211	3.98	29	54.7%	2.5
23	DeMarco Murray	dal	6	96	422	4.4	50	52.1%	2
24	Alfred Morris	was	12	229	1103	4.82	116	50.7%	1.5
25	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	cin	12	225	884	3.93	114	50.7%	1.5
26	LeSean McCoy	phi	10	175	742	4.24	89	50.9%	1.5
27	Reggie Bush	mia	12	164	726	4.43	83	50.6%	1
28	Mark Ingram	nor	12	97	351	3.62	49	50.5%	0.5
29	Cedric Benson	gnb	5	71	248	3.49	36	50.7%	0.5
30	James Starks	gnb	6	69	252	3.65	34	49.3%	-0.5
31	Chris Johnson	oti	12	202	981	4.86	100	49.5%	-1
32	Michael Bush	chi	12	110	384	3.49	54	49.1%	-1
33	Maurice Jones-Drew	jax	6	84	411	4.89	41	48.8%	-1
34	Mikel Leshoure	det	10	157	591	3.76	77	49%	-1.5
35	Vick Ballard	clt	12	125	465	3.72	61	48.8%	-1.5
36	Felix Jones	dal	12	98	349	3.56	47	48%	-2
37	Peyton Hillis	kan	9	58	192	3.31	27	46.6%	-2
38	Bernard Pierce	rav	12	59	247	4.19	27	45.8%	-2.5
39	Jamaal Charles	kan	12	220	1052	4.78	107	48.6%	-3
40	Donald Brown	clt	10	106	410	3.87	50	47.2%	-3
41	Jackie Battle	sdg	12	52	222	4.27	23	44.2%	-3
42	Steven Jackson	ram	12	193	767	3.97	93	48.2%	-3.5
43	Jonathan Dwyer	pit	9	114	480	4.21	53	46.5%	-4
44	Ronnie Hillman	den	10	56	227	4.05	23	41.1%	-5
45	Ray Rice	rav	12	197	859	4.36	93	47.2%	-5.5
46	DeAngelo Williams	car	12	103	359	3.49	46	44.7%	-5.5
47	Isaac Redman	pit	10	93	342	3.68	40	43%	-6.5
48	Jonathan Stewart	car	9	93	336	3.61	40	43%	-6.5
49	Ryan Williams	crd	5	57	169	2.96	22	38.6%	-6.5
50	Doug Martin	tam	12	234	1116	4.77	110	47%	-7
51	Trent Richardson	cle	12	221	802	3.63	103	46.6%	-7.5
52	LaRod Stephens-Howling	crd	10	90	303	3.37	37	41.1%	-8
53	Rashad Jennings	jax	10	100	282	2.82	41	41%	-9
54	Jacquizz Rodgers	atl	12	67	272	4.06	24	35.8%	-9.5
55	Michael Turner	atl	12	179	673	3.76	79	44.1%	-10.5
56	Chris Wells	crd	5	61	146	2.39	20	32.8%	-10.5
57	Matt Forte	chi	11	173	723	4.18	75	43.4%	-11.5
58	Alex Green	gnb	10	107	348	3.25	40	37.4%	-13.5
59	Darren McFadden	rai	8	137	448	3.27	54	39.4%	-14.5

We can also look at things on the team level:

Rk	Tm	Rush	Yards	YPC	Succ	Rate
1	buf	279	1464	5.25	161	57.7%
2	nyg	291	1352	4.65	163	56%
3	nwe	364	1631	4.48	201	55.2%
4	sfo	284	1378	4.85	155	54.6%
5	sea	310	1324	4.27	166	53.5%
6	den	290	1195	4.12	154	53.1%
7	nyj	309	1243	4.02	163	52.8%
8	mia	289	1195	4.13	152	52.6%
9	phi	261	1287	4.93	137	52.5%
10	htx	370	1597	4.32	193	52.2%
11	nor	248	1087	4.38	129	52%
12	cin	277	1203	4.34	142	51.3%
13	min	266	1573	5.91	136	51.1%
14	clt	269	1017	3.78	137	50.9%
15	ram	274	1231	4.49	139	50.7%
16	was	255	1207	4.73	129	50.6%
17	kan	335	1482	4.42	168	50.1%
18	sdg	276	1074	3.89	137	49.6%
19	dal	242	913	3.77	120	49.6%
20	oti	217	1004	4.63	107	49.3%
21	det	254	1055	4.15	125	49.2%
22	cle	259	968	3.74	124	47.9%
23	rav	268	1148	4.28	128	47.8%
24	tam	276	1275	4.62	127	46%
25	car	221	765	3.46	101	45.7%
26	rai	239	921	3.85	109	45.6%
27	gnb	265	906	3.42	119	44.9%
28	chi	311	1217	3.91	139	44.7%
29	pit	289	1084	3.75	129	44.6%
30	jax	231	866	3.75	102	44.2%
31	atl	255	961	3.77	105	41.2%
32	crd	240	752	3.13	94	39.2%

The Falcons have the 2nd worst rushing success rate, which helps explain why they’re the most pass-happy offense in the NFL.
Buffalo has an incredible running game but not much else. C.J. Spiller has been outstanding and Fred Jackson has been very good; unfortunately, the Bills have only outrushed their opponents by 105 yards and have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns compared to 9 by the offense.
Having Tom Brady helps, but the New England running game has been fantastic this season. Stevan Ridley may not have the most challenging job in the world, but he still should be in the running for employee of the month.
Last year (as of November 17th), Maurice Jones-Drew led all running backs in successful runs and had a solid 50% success rate. But on the team level the Jaguars were below average because of the other running backs, namely Deji Karim and his 37% success rate. This year, MJD has a 49% success rate while backup Rashad Jennings is at only 41%.
If the Bears are expecting to win with their defense and running game, they can’t rank in the bottom five in rush success rate. Chalk that up to the offensive line, as both Matt Forte (57th in success rate) and Michael Bush (3.5 YPC) have had their struggles.
Despite the very real evidence that the Jets running game is anemic — New York ranks 26th in yards per carry and five of the team’s eight rushing touchdowns came in garbage time/blowouts — Shonn Greene, Bilal Powell, and company (but not Tim Tebow) place the Jets 7th in success rate. They are not explosive players by any means, but the Jets lead the NFL on third-and-one conversion rate on rushing plays (12 of 13).

We also can rank teams by their rush success on defense:

Rk	Tm	Rush	Yards	YPC	Succ	Rate
1	sfo	263	902	3.43	112	42.6%
2	ram	265	1001	3.78	114	43%
3	htx	217	853	3.93	95	43.8%
4	chi	233	1012	4.34	105	45.1%
5	rai	284	1345	4.74	129	45.4%
6	tam	241	861	3.57	112	46.5%
7	min	281	997	3.55	131	46.6%
8	phi	283	1112	3.93	133	47%
9	den	290	1041	3.59	137	47.2%
10	sea	232	1027	4.43	110	47.4%
11	dal	286	1217	4.26	136	47.6%
12	mia	266	960	3.61	127	47.7%
13	was	224	946	4.22	107	47.8%
14	sdg	257	1030	4.01	125	48.6%
15	kan	286	1341	4.69	140	49%
16	det	251	1123	4.47	123	49%
17	car	294	1385	4.71	149	50.7%
18	clt	264	1260	4.77	134	50.8%
19	gnb	267	1181	4.42	137	51.3%
20	nor	302	1537	5.09	155	51.3%
21	oti	318	1379	4.34	164	51.6%
22	cin	246	1078	4.38	128	52%
23	buf	300	1418	4.73	158	52.7%
24	rav	337	1374	4.08	178	52.8%
25	atl	274	1243	4.54	145	52.9%
26	nyg	255	1151	4.51	135	52.9%
27	crd	310	1363	4.4	165	53.2%
28	nyj	333	1424	4.28	178	53.5%
29	jax	343	1466	4.27	184	53.6%
30	cle	294	1279	4.35	158	53.7%
31	pit	258	1012	3.92	141	54.7%
32	nwe	260	1057	4.07	146	56.2%

The 49ers may have fallen slightly from their perch atop the traditional rushing categories, but remain extremely stout against the run. That may have been why Jeff Fisher chose to have Greg Zuerlein kick a 54-yard field goal in overtime rather than try to convert on 4th and 1 against the 49ers.
The Patriots are interesting. According to success rate, New England has the worst rush defense in the NFL, but the team ranks in the top 10 in both rushing yards and yards per carry allowed. That might merit further investigating. For what it’s worth, the Patriots also ranked last in rush success when I wrote this article last year. When advanced statistics show New England to be better than traditional metrics, we like to say that that’s why Bill Belichick is a genius. When the tide turns the other way, we question the statistic. Those Super Bowl rings come with perks.
Similarly, the Steelers rank in the top 6 in both rushing yards and rushing YPC allowed, but are 31st in rush success rate allowed. It’s worth remembering that the data are not identical — traditional rushing stats include runs by non-running backs and third-and-long carries — but I’m a little surprised to see these results. Of course, that isn’t a bad thing, and might simply mean that the Steelers and Patriots are much worse against the run than we realize..
Tampa Bay is currently having the most remarkable turnaround possible with their rush defense — the Bucs still rank 1st in both rushing yards and yards per carry allowed. They also come off as very strong in rush success rate.

Tagged as: Adrian Peterson, C.J. Spiller

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