This time last year, the media chorus was signing that the running back position had been severely devalued in the modern NFL. Part of that, no doubt, was true: it is undeniable that less draft capital is being spent on running backs.
When I wrote about the 2014 Running Back Free Agent Market last year and how little they were being paid, I made sure to link to a pretty key point made by Jason Lisk at the Big Lead: the free agent class just wasn’t very good. Last year, the top free agent running backs were Toby Gerhart ($4.5M guaranteed, $7M over the first two years of his contract), Donald Brown ($4, $7), Rashad Jennings ($2.98, $5.25), Maurice Jones-Drew ($1.2, $5.0), Ben Tate ($2.5, $4.35), and Knowshon Moreno ($1.25, $4.25).
In case you forgot, here’s a quick summary of how those backs fared last year:
- Gerhart averaged 3.2 yards per carry over 101 carries and was benched;
- Brown averaged 2.6 YPC over 85 carries and was benched;
- Jennings rushed for 639 yards in 11 games, missing 5 due to injury;
- Jones-Drew averaged 2.2 YPC over 43 carries and is now retired;
- Tate was cut after 106 carries and 8 games;and
- Moreno was limited to 3 games due to injury.
This was an underwhelming class of free agent running backs that somehow fell far, far short of expectations. Then, Chris Johnson joined the class, and signed a two-year, $8M contract with $4M guaranteed. The Jets cut him after one season, where he gained 814 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns in 16 games.
The headlines last year were “running backs aren’t getting paid”, while the real story was “mediocre running backs aren’t getting paid.” This year, we had more than enough test cases to examine that theory. And the results are pretty clear:
- Marshawn Lynch signed a two-year contract extension from the Seahawks on March 6, 2016, where he received a $7.5M signing bonus and his base salary of $4.5M for this season was guaranteed. In other words, he’s getting $12M to run the football for the Seahawks this year.
- The Saints chose not to exercise their fifth year option on Mark Ingram last May, But after a strong 2014, New Orleans signed him to a 4-year, $16M deal on March 8th, with $6.1M fully guaranteed (and a $3.6M signing bonus).
- The Bills traded for LeSean McCoy, and gave him a 5-year, $40.05M contract, which includes a $13.125M signing bonus and a guaranteed 2015 base salary of $2.625. Given the structure of his contract, it’s extremely unlikely that the Bills release him before 2017, which means he should earn $27.3M over the first three years of his contract (including workout bonuses).
- The Eagles responded by signing DeMarco Murray, who received a 5-year, $40M deal as well. He got $18M fully guaranteed at signing. Technically, the Eagles could get out of this contract after two years and save $4M on their 2017 cap, but that means Philadelphia would have paid him $9M/year over the next two seasons. If he makes it to year three, he will have earned $24M over the first three years of his contract.
- Philadelphia also signed Ryan Mathews to a 3-year, $11M deal, with $5M fully guaranteed. That’s more guaranteed money than any back, including Johnson, got last year. For Ryan Mathews!
- Shane Vereen received a 3-year deal worth $12.35M from the Giants, with $4.75M guaranteed. This is the same Vereen who set a career high last year with … 838 yards from scrimmage!
- The Saints also signed C.J. Spiller, and his contract actually tops Ingram’s. According to Adam Schefter, Spiller received a 4-year, $18M deal, with $9 million guaranteed and a $5 million signing bonus. That’s a very nice haul for a player who has scored 20 touchdowns in five seasons, and who has gained 425 and 1,118 yards from scrimmage the past two years.
- On the other side, older backs didn’t fare so well, but I suppose things could have been worse. Frank Gore, who turns 32 in May, picked up a 3-year, $12M deal from the Colts, with $6.5M guaranteed in the form of roster bonuses. To the extent there was a “steal” this year, it was in Baltimore, where 29-year-old Justin Forsett signed a 3-year, $9M deal, with just $3M guaranteed.