Seattle rushed 24 times for 73 yards tonight against the Cowboys, averaging 3.0 yards per carry.
The Seahawks and Russell Wilson threw for 226 net passing yards on 30 dropbacks, averaging 8.1 yards per pass.
If you knew nothing else but that, you would assume the Seahawks won. After all, that’s a pretty efficient game from the quarterback, and a team would typically run on 44% of all plays in a game that they are winning.
But alas, that was not the case tonight. Let’s look at the last 10 times a team averaged under 3.0 yards per carry, ran on at least 40% of their plays, and lost a playoff game (teams are 56-10 in the playoffs since 1999 when meeting the first two criteria, because teams usually only run that often if they’re running that poorly because they’re leading):
| Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Tm | Year | Date | Time | LTime | Opp | Week | G# | Day | Result | OT | Att | TD | Int | Sk | Rate | NY/A | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | |
| 1 | JAX | 2017 | 2018-01-21 | 3:05 | @ | NWE | 20 | 19 | Sun | L 20-24 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 96.2 | 7.0000 | 32 | 101 | 3.16 | 1 | ||
| 2 | MIN | 2015 | 2016-01-10 | 1:05 | 12:05 | SEA | 18 | 17 | Sun | L 9-10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 82.8 | 4.6296 | 29 | 58 | 2.00 | 0 | ||
| 3 | DEN | 2012 | 2013-01-12 | 4:36 | 2:36 | BAL | 19 | 17 | Sat | L 35-38 | OT | 43 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 86.7 | 5.9348 | 41 | 125 | 3.05 | 0 | |
| 4 | IND | 2010 | 2011-01-08 | 8:15 | 8:15 | NYJ | 18 | 17 | Sat | L 16-17 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 107.7 | 8.1111 | 27 | 93 | 3.44 | 0 | ||
| 5 | NYJ | 2009 | 2010-01-24 | 3:05 | 3:05 | @ | IND | 20 | 19 | Sun | L 17-30 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 99.1 | 9.7419 | 29 | 86 | 2.97 | 0 | |
| 6 | BAL | 2008 | 2009-01-18 | 6:43 | 6:43 | @ | PIT | 20 | 19 | Sun | L 14-23 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 16.0 | 3.7879 | 25 | 73 | 2.92 | 2 | |
| 7 | SDG | 2004 | 2005-01-08 | 8:14 | 5:14 | NYJ | 18 | 17 | Sat | L 17-20 | OT | 42 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 100.1 | 7.0000 | 33 | 100 | 3.03 | 0 | |
| 8 | TEN | 2003 | 2004-01-10 | 8:15 | 8:15 | @ | NWE | 19 | 18 | Sat | L 14-17 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 88.6 | 6.8966 | 26 | 84 | 3.23 | 1 | |
| 9 | OAK | 2001 | 2002-01-19 | 8:05 | 8:05 | @ | NWE | 19 | 18 | Sat | L 13-16 | OT | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 79.1 | 4.7813 | 30 | 77 | 2.57 | 0 |
| 10 | TAM | 1999 | 2000-01-23 | 4:22 | 3:22 | @ | STL | 20 | 18 | Sun | L 6-11 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 28.8 | 3.7059 | 23 | 77 | 3.35 | 0 |
The quarterbacks in those games: Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater (with Adrian Peterson, who happened to have a terrible game but led the NFL in rushing that season), Peyton Manning (under John Fox), Peyton Manning (under Jim Caldwell), a rookie Mark Sanchez, a rookie Joe Flacco, a young Drew Brees (with LaDainian Tomlinson, a first-team All-Pro RB that year), Steve McNair (with Jeff Fisher), Rich Gannon (in a game the Raiders led throughout and well, #tuckrule), and Shaun King.
That consists of 4 bad quarterbacks (the two rookies, Bortles, and King), 2 quarterbacks on teams led by All-Pro RBs (Bridgewater, Brees), and then 4 good quarterbacks similar to Wilson.
The Manning game against the Jets was unjustifiable: Manning played well and yet the Colts had a 50/50 pass/run ratio. This was the sort of poor coaching that made Caldwell a disappointment in Indianapolis.
The Manning game against the Ravens was a little different: he didn’t play quite that well, and this was a game the Broncos usually had the lead. But Fox was famously conservative, and his conservative tendencies may have cost the Broncos a Super Bowl.
The Gannon game was a bit like the Denver/Baltimore game: the Raiders led most of the way and, as you likely recall, there was some pretty bad weather impacting things.
The McNair game had a bit of Jeff Fisher to it, but it was also a weather game: at kickoff, there was a minus-10 windchill.
There was no weather impacting the game tonight. And the Seahawks don’t have an All-Pro running back. They weren’t ahead most of the game. And they don’t have a bad quarterback.
Seattle had the best player on the field in a playoff game and chose not to use him. That’s just bad coaching by offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer (who was also the OC for the Jets in the 2009 game against the Colts), especially when the running game was so ineffective.