Yesterday, I noted that the rate of passing touchdowns has been relatively stable throughout NFL history. But that doesn’t mean the type of passing touchdown hasn’t changed.

In the post-World War II era, the average length of touchdown pass was occasionally over 30 yards! Today, the average length of each touchdown pass is below 20 yards, and it’s been
for every season since 2006. Most of the change came in the ’60s and early ’70s, as opposed to the many changes in passing statistics that are the result of the west coast offense.

The graph below shows the average length of touchdown passes in each professional football season (combining the AFL, AAFC, and NFL) since 1940.

Unsurprisingly, the percentage of touchdown passes that were at least 20 yards, at least 30 yards, at least 40 yards, or at least 50 yards have also all declined. And the rates have been pretty similar: on average, there has been a decrease of about one-third in percentage of touchdowns from each long distance. In 1950, 47% of all touchdown passes went for at least 30+ yards. As recently as 1968, nearly 20% of all touchdown passes were at least 50+ yards long; in modern times, that number is usually below 10%. The graph below shows such data:

What we are seeing, of course, is the rise of the short touchdown pass. Nearly 50% of all touchdown passes are now from 10 yards in or closer! Even more remarkable, about 30% are within 5 yards, and last season, one in every eight touchdown passes was from 1 or 2 yards!

What do you think?