Single-Season Receiving Yards Leaders (Above Junk Levels)

by Chase Stuart on June 22, 2016

On Sunday, I discussed single-game receiving yards baselines. You can check that post to see the methodology (using Justin Blackmon as the example), but basically we just remove a certain number of receiving yards from every player in every game, and that player only gets credit for their yards above that baseline.

Based on the discussion with Brad O. in the comments, I’ve decided to use a couple of different baselines. One is a 3X baseline — that means we multiply the number of team games in the NFL (in modern times, that’s 512) by 3, and that’s the number of games in each year that are at or above the baseline. The other is a 2.5X baseline — i.e., we multiply team games by 2.5 to get the threshold number.

In 2015, the junk baseline of 3X was 32 receiving yards. For some players like Julio Jones, who had at least 32 yards in each game, that just means we remove 512 yards from his total of 1,871 receiving yards, giving him 1,359 non-junk yards last year. With a 2.5X baseline, players in 2015 only receive credit for their yards once they hit 40 yards in a game; for Jones, that means subtracting 638 yards from his total, since he had one 38-yard game last year, resulting in 1,233 non-junk yards if we use that threshold. By either standard, that ranks as the 9th best season since 1960.

I used that methodology for every player season since 1960, and pro-rated for non-16 game seasons. The best year, using either baseline, was what Charley Hennigan did in 1961. He had at least 78 yards in 13 games and 0 yards in the 14th game; that makes the calculation pretty easy. The baseline at the 2.5X level was 31 yards, so for Hennigan, we just subtract 31 yards from his total of 1,746 yards in 13 games, or 403 yards, leaving him with 1,343 yards. Then, we multiply that by 16/14 — since his Oilers played a 14-game schedule — to give him a pro-rated 1,535 yards above the baseline.

That’s the top season since 1960. You may want to downgrade him for being in the AFL, of course, but that’s another matter. The table below shows all player seasons that rank in the top 300 based on either the 2.5X measure or the 3X measure:

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Search:

2.5X Rk	Player	Year	Team	Tm G	2.5X Yds	3X Rk	3X Yds
1	Charley Hennigan	1961	HOU	14	1535	1	1654
2	Wes Chandler	1982	SDG	9	1380	4	1451
3	Calvin Johnson	2012	DET	16	1360	2	1468
4	Lance Alworth	1965	SDG	14	1352	3	1462
5	Raymond Berry	1960	BAL	12	1312	5	1408
6	Jerry Rice	1995	SFO	16	1305	6	1392
7	Bill Groman	1960	HOU	14	1290	7	1386
8	Charley Hennigan	1964	HOU	14	1269	8	1381
9	Julio Jones	2015	ATL	16	1233	9	1359
10	Isaac Bruce	1995	STL	16	1232	11	1322
11	Don Maynard	1967	NYJ	14	1226	12	1295
12	Antonio Brown	2015	PIT	16	1210	10	1330
13	Torry Holt	2003	STL	16	1200	14	1280
14	Marvin Harrison	2002	IND	16	1199	13	1290
15	Randy Moss	2003	MIN	16	1146	21	1217
16	Torry Holt	2000	STL	16	1137	16	1227
17	Bobby Mitchell	1963	WAS	14	1135	17	1225
18	Herman Moore	1995	DET	16	1126	19	1222
19	Jimmy Smith	1999	JAX	16	1121	20	1219
20	Lance Alworth	1966	SDG	14	1120	18	1224
21	Marvin Harrison	1999	IND	16	1119	15	1231
22	Josh Gordon	2013	CLE	16	1118	23	1209
23	Bobby Mitchell	1962	WAS	14	1112	22	1209
24	Dwight Clark	1982	SFO	9	1111	27	1191
25	Calvin Johnson	2011	DET	16	1105	24	1203
26	Don Maynard	1968	NYJ	14	1098	30	1178
27	Rod Smith	2000	DEN	16	1097	28	1187
28	Art Powell	1964	OAK	14	1095	26	1199
29	David Boston	2001	ARI	16	1092	29	1182
30	Antonio Brown	2014	PIT	16	1090	25	1202

Showing 1 to 30 of 311 entries

Surprisingly, Randy Moss has 8 seasons in the top 300, most of all players — including Jerry Rice! Rice is at 7 seasons, followed by Don Maynard, Lance Alworth, Marvin Harrison, and Torry Holt, who each have six.

I have included each team in the table above, which allows for some fun searching. Brandon Marshall had a great season for the Jets last year, but it was only the 5th best using this metric. Type “NYG” into the search box, and you’ll see that of the Giants four best years, none came from 1970 to 2010: they were had by Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz recently, or Homer Jones and Del Shofner in the ’60s.

Could you guess the top Eagles season? I doubt it. But Ben Hawkins led the NFL in receiving yards in 1967.

Among the Smiths….. Jimmy has 5 seasons in the top 300, Steve has 4, and Rod has 3. Meanwhile, Jackie has one, too.

The Arizona Cardinals have three top seasons, but none of them came from Larry Fitzgerald.

What stands out to you? And check back tomorrow for a career list.

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