Steven Jackson and Running Back Records

by Chase Stuart on July 2, 2014

Jackson, presumably walking off the field after a loss.

One of my very first posts at Football Perspective looked at the weighted career winning percentages of various running backs. You can calculate a player’s weighted career winning percentage in lots of ways, but here’s what I did:

Calculate the percentage of yards from scrimmage a running back gained in each season as a percentage of his career yards from scrimmage. For example, if a player gained 10% of his yards from scrimmage in 1999 and the team went 15-1 that season, then 10% of the running back’s weighted winning percentage would be 0.9375. This is designed to align a running back’s best seasons with his team’s records in those years. For example, Emmitt Smith played 2 of his 15 seasons with the Cardinals. But since he gained only 6.5% of his career yards from scrimmage in Arizona, the Cardinals’ records those years count for only 6.5% — and not, say, 13.3% — of his career weighted winning percentage.

Add the weighted winning percentages from each season of the player’s career to get a career weighted winning percentage.

At the time, Steven Jackson had the lowest average adjusted winning percentage of any running back in my study. Since then, Jackson played for the 7-8-1 Rams in 2012 and the 4-12 Falcons in 2013. That upped his adjusted winning percentage from 0.292 to 0.307. Among the 129 running backs in NFL history with at least 7,000 yards from scrimmage, only James Wilder had a worse career adjusted winning percentage.

The running back with the highest adjusted winning percentage is Lawrence McCutcheon, who spent the majority of his career with the Rams before end-of-career cups of coffee with Denver, Seattle, and Buffalo. The table below shows the first and last year for each running back, the teams he played for, his career yards from scrimmage, and his adjusted winning percentage. McCutcheon played on those great Rams teams of the ’70s, gaining the bulk of his yards from ’73 to ’77. As a result, his adjusted winning % is an incredible 0.741:

Rk	Name	First Yr	Last Yr	Teams	YFS	Adj Win%
1	Lawrence McCutcheon	1972	1981	RAM-DEN-SEA-BUF	8377	0.741
2	Chuck Foreman	1973	1980	MIN-NWE	9106	0.733
3	Roger Craig	1983	1993	SFO-RAI-MIN	13100	0.723
4	Terrell Davis	1995	2001	DEN	8887	0.719
5	Franco Harris	1972	1984	PIT-SEA	14407	0.71
6	Jim Taylor	1958	1967	GNB-NOR	10353	0.709
7	Michael Turner	2004	2012	SDG-ATL	7866	0.708
8	Tony Nathan	1979	1987	MIA	7135	0.703
9	Tom Matte	1961	1972	BAL	7515	0.701
10	Alex Webster	1955	1964	NYG	7317	0.694
11	Jim Brown	1957	1965	CLE	14811	0.691
12	Mark van Eeghen	1974	1983	OAK-NWE	8234	0.686
13	Dorsey Levens	1994	2004	GNB-PHI-NYG-PHI	7289	0.686
14	Kevin Faulk	1999	2011	NWE	7308	0.683
15	Calvin Hill	1969	1981	DAL-WAS-CLE	8944	0.682
16	Tony Dorsett	1977	1988	DAL-DEN	16293	0.672
17	Robert Smith	1993	2000	MIN	8110	0.665
18	Thurman Thomas	1988	2000	BUF-MIA	16532	0.663
19	Leroy Kelly	1964	1973	CLE	9555	0.659
20	Frank Gifford	1952	1964	NYG	9043	0.656
21	Ray Rice	2008	2013	BAL	9214	0.655
22	Edgerrin James	1999	2009	IND-ARI-SEA	15610	0.651
23	Lenny Moore	1956	1967	BAL	11213	0.645
24	Marcus Allen	1982	1997	RAI-KAN	17654	0.645
25	Larry Brown Jr.	1969	1976	WAS	8360	0.644
26	Larry Csonka	1968	1979	MIA-NYG-MIA	8901	0.639
27	Eddie George	1996	2004	HOU-TEN-DAL	12668	0.625
28	Rick Casares	1955	1966	CHI-WAS-MIA	7385	0.619
29	Ahman Green	1998	2009	SEA-GNB-HOU-GNB	12088	0.617
30	Garrison Hearst	1993	2004	PHO-ARI-CIN-SFO-DEN	10031	0.606
31	Keith Byars	1986	1998	PHI-MIA-NWE-NYJ	8770	0.604
32	Brian Westbrook	2002	2010	PHI-SFO	10275	0.599
33	Shaun Alexander	2000	2008	SEA-WAS	10973	0.597
34	Ricky Watters	1992	2001	SFO-PHI-SEA	14891	0.593
35	Mike Garrett	1966	1973	KAN-SDG	7491	0.591
36	Wendell Tyler	1977	1986	RAM-SFO	8194	0.585
37	Neal Anderson	1986	1993	CHI	8929	0.584
38	Walter Payton	1975	1987	CHI	21264	0.582
39	Joe Perry	1948	1963	SFO-BAL-SFO	11744	0.581
40	Emmitt Smith	1990	2004	DAL-ARI	21579	0.579
41	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001	2011	SDG-NYJ	18456	0.577
42	Joe Cribbs	1980	1988	BUF-SFO-IND-MIA	7555	0.573
43	Wilbert Montgomery	1977	1985	PHI-DET	9291	0.572
44	Lydell Mitchell	1972	1980	BAL-SDG-RAM	9737	0.571
45	Duce Staley	1997	2006	PHI-PIT	8372	0.571
46	Earnest Byner	1984	1997	CLE-WAS-CLE-BAL	12866	0.563
47	John Riggins	1971	1985	NYJ-WAS	13442	0.563
48	Mike Alstott	1996	2006	TAM	7372	0.559
49	Curt Warner	1983	1990	SEA-RAM	8311	0.556
50	Jamal Lewis	2000	2009	BAL-CLE	12486	0.556
51	Stephen Davis	1996	2006	WAS-CAR-STL	9546	0.554
52	Curtis Martin	1995	2005	NWE-NYJ	17430	0.553
53	Matt Forte	2008	2013	CHI	9585	0.552
54	Antowain Smith	1997	2005	BUF-NWE-TEN-NOR	7863	0.55
55	Marshall Faulk	1994	2005	IND-STL	19154	0.549
56	Ken Willard	1965	1974	SFO-STL	8289	0.547
57	LeSean McCoy	2009	2013	PHI	7600	0.546
58	Marshawn Lynch	2007	2013	BUF-SEA	8921	0.546
59	Eric Dickerson	1983	1993	RAM-IND-RAM-IND-RAI-ATL	15396	0.543
60	Clem Daniels	1960	1968	DTX-OAK-SFO	8452	0.542
61	Warrick Dunn	1997	2008	TAM-ATL-TAM	15306	0.54
62	Terry Allen	1991	2001	MIN-WAS-NWE-NOR-BAL	10215	0.54
63	DeAngelo Williams	2006	2013	CAR	8204	0.538
64	Sam Cunningham	1973	1982	NWE	7358	0.538
65	Jerome Bettis	1993	2005	RAM-STL-PIT	15111	0.537
66	Priest Holmes	1997	2007	BAL-KAN	11134	0.537
67	Bill Brown	1961	1974	CHI-MIN	9021	0.534
68	Fred Taylor	1998	2010	JAX-NWE	14079	0.531
69	Tiki Barber	1997	2006	NYG	15632	0.527
70	Hugh McElhenny	1952	1964	SFO-MIN-NYG-DET	8528	0.526
71	Delvin Williams	1974	1981	SFO-MIA-GNB	7013	0.524
72	Freeman McNeil	1981	1992	NYJ	11035	0.524
73	Don Perkins	1961	1968	DAL	7527	0.523
74	Ricky Williams	1999	2011	NOR-MIA-BAL	12615	0.523
75	Chester Taylor	2002	2011	BAL-MIN-CHI-ARI	7064	0.523
76	Tony Collins	1981	1990	NWE-MIA	7003	0.519
77	Adrian Peterson	2007	2013	MIN	11812	0.517
78	James Brooks	1981	1992	SDG-CIN-CLE-TAM	11583	0.516
79	Clinton Portis	2002	2010	DEN-WAS	11941	0.515
80	Frank Gore	2005	2013	SFO	12739	0.515
81	Deuce McAllister	2001	2008	NOR	7816	0.513
82	Abner Haynes	1960	1967	DTX-KAN-DEN-MIA-NYJ	8165	0.511
83	Ronnie Harmon	1986	1997	BUF-SDG-HOU-CHI-TEN	8850	0.509
84	Chris Johnson	2008	2013	TEN	9968	0.508
85	William Andrews	1979	1986	ATL	8633	0.507
86	George Rogers	1981	1987	NOR-WAS	7544	0.507
87	Mike Pruitt	1976	1986	CLE-BUF-KAN	9238	0.506
88	Reggie Bush	2006	2013	NOR-MIA-DET	8404	0.506
89	Rodney Hampton	1990	1997	NYG	8206	0.503
90	John Henry Johnson	1954	1966	SFO-DET-PIT-HOU	8281	0.503
91	Thomas Jones	2000	2011	ARI-TAM-CHI-NYJ-KAN	12614	0.501
92	John Williams	1986	1995	SEA-PIT	9662	0.5
93	Willis McGahee	2004	2013	BUF-BAL-DEN-CLE	9813	0.498
94	Ottis Anderson	1979	1992	STL-NYG	13335	0.494
95	Billy Sims	1980	1984	DET	7178	0.494
96	Barry Sanders	1989	1998	DET	18190	0.493
97	Darrin Nelson	1982	1992	MIN-SDG-MIN	7001	0.488
98	Joe Washington	1977	1985	SDG-BAL-WAS-ATL	8252	0.486
99	James Stewart	1995	2002	JAX-DET	7556	0.474
100	Joe Morrison	1959	1972	NYG	7467	0.473
101	Earl Campbell	1978	1985	HOU-NOR-HOU-NOR	10213	0.473
102	Larry Johnson	2003	2011	KAN-CIN-KAN-WAS-MIA	7596	0.466
103	Chuck Muncie	1976	1984	NOR-SDG	9025	0.465
104	Ted Brown	1979	1986	MIN	7396	0.462
105	Donny Anderson	1966	1974	GNB-STL	7244	0.457
106	MacArthur Lane	1968	1978	STL-GNB-KAN	7442	0.456
107	John David Crow	1958	1968	CRD-STL-SFO	8662	0.456
108	Greg Pruitt	1973	1984	CLE-RAI	8741	0.454
109	Charlie Garner	1994	2004	PHI-SFO-OAK-TAM	10808	0.452
110	Eric Metcalf	1989	2002	CLE-ATL-SDG-ARI-CAR-WAS-GNB	7964	0.452
111	Ronnie Brown	2005	2013	MIA-PHI-SDG	7250	0.44
112	Michael Pittman	1998	2008	ARI-TAM-DEN	9139	0.439
113	Dick Bass	1960	1969	RAM	7258	0.438
114	Herschel Walker	1986	1997	DAL-MIN-PHI-NYG-DAL	13084	0.43
115	Timmy Brown	1959	1968	GNB-PHI-BAL	7261	0.423
116	Corey Dillon	1997	2006	CIN-NWE	13154	0.42
117	Jamaal Charles	2008	2013	KAN	7798	0.418
118	Travis Henry	2001	2007	BUF-TEN-DEN	7037	0.413
119	Tony Galbreath	1976	1987	NOR-MIN-NYG	8138	0.413
120	Maurice Jones-Drew	2006	2013	JAX	10944	0.41
121	Floyd Little	1967	1975	DEN	8741	0.407
122	Larry Centers	1990	2003	PHO-ARI-WAS-BUF-NWE	8985	0.406
123	Chris Warren	1990	2000	SEA-DAL-PHI	9631	0.403
124	Gerald Riggs	1982	1991	ATL-WAS	9704	0.38
125	O.J. Simpson	1969	1979	BUF-SFO	13378	0.374
126	Fred Jackson	2007	2013	BUF	7260	0.367
127	Ollie Matson	1952	1966	CRD-RAM-DET-PHI	8458	0.313
128	Steven Jackson	2004	2013	STL-ATL	14193	0.307
129	James Wilder	1981	1990	TAM-DET-WAS	9508	0.294

Among active runners with at least 7,000 yards from scrimmage, Ray Rice has the highest adjusted winning percentage at 0.655. The Ravens have posted a 62-34 record since Rice was drafted by Baltimore in 2008; that’s a winning percentage of 0.646. Rice’s adjusted winning percentage is slightly higher largely because Baltimore had a 0.594 winning percentage in ’08 and ’13, Rice’s two worst years.

Maurice Jones-Drew has an adjusted winning percentage of 0.410, which comes in at #120 on the list of 129 backs. Buffalo’s Fred Jackson has an adjusted winning percentage of 0.367, which ranks 126th. At least for me, that really puts in perspective how bad Steven Jackson’s teams have been: despite winning 6% fewer games, he only comes in two slots below Jackson.

Five running backs have 18,000 yards from scrimmage: Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Barry Sanders. You won’t be surprised to see Sanders have the lowest adjusted winning percentage in that group at 0.493. But Payton, Tomlinson, and Smith all have adjusted winning percentages of 58%, yet it seems as though only one of those players gets remembered as playing for dominant teams.

McCutcheon and Chuck Foreman each made 5 Pro Bowls; Roger Craig has been a Hall of Fame finalist, and Terrell Davis has a pretty strong HOF case, too. Those four backs also have the four highest adjusted winning percentages. That’s pretty interesting, although I’m not quite sure what it means. I do think each player has been a bit marginalized because they played for great teams, and I suppose the numbers here support that theory.

Thomas Jones has an adjusted winning percentage of 0.501, but that only places him at #91 on the list. The fact that 71% of the running backs with at least 7,000 yards from scrimmage had a career adjusted winning record says something, although it is probably too difficult to separate causation from correlation here.

Tagged as: Steven Jackson

{ 10 comments }