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Super Bowl Champions, by Draft Value

The New England Patriots won Super Bowl LI, but it wasn’t because the team was packed full of high draft picks. Of the five Patriots who had more than 10 points of AV, only one was drafted in the first four rounds. Regular readers know that I created an AV-based draft value chart, which assigns points to each draft pick based on the expected marginal production produced by that pick.

Well, you can calculate a team’s weighted average draft value by doing the following:

  • Calculate the draft value spent on each player on the roster who produced at least 1 point of AV that season.
  • Calculate the percentage of team AV produced by each player. This is key, otherwise Chris Long would skew the results in the wrong direction.
  • Multiply the results in steps 1 and 2, and then sum those values.

Here’s how it would work with the 2016 Patriots, who had an average draft value (as a roster, and weighted by AV) of 6.72.

As it turns out, 6.72 — which is roughly equivalent to the 79th pick in the draft — is really low for a Super Bowl champion, although not for the Patriots. The ’03 Patriots were a little different, but the other four New England teams that won the Super Bowl all rank 40th or lower among the 51 Super Bowl champions in terms of average draft value. The 2016 edition was the lowest ranked of the group, ahead of just three other Super Bowl champions.

The ’87 Skins were a little weird, because they have replacement players mixed in with AV. There was a strike in ’82, of course, too, but no replacement players were used that year, so those values are truly representative of the team that won it all. The only other team below New England was the ’13 Seahawks, who also found some late round draft picks that turned into stars.

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