Super Bowl LIII Was Even Lower-Scoring Than You Think

by Chase Stuart on February 4, 2019

Yes, this was the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever. Just as the game ended, I tweeted this graph:

This is the first Super Bowl to ever have less than 20 combined points. Patriots win, 13-3.

X-Axis: Super Bowl number
Y-Axis: Total points scored by both teams pic.twitter.com/bVyKULKYYa

— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) February 4, 2019

But this game was even more anemic than you think, once you consider the two teams in the game. Consider that in the regular season, Los Angeles averaged 32.9 points per game, just 1/16th of a point per game more than the famed ’99 Rams. In fact, the ’18 Rams were the 6th-highest scoring offense to ever make the Super Bowl, behind five other Super Bowl losers: the ’13 Broncos, ’07 Patriots, ’83 Redskins, ’16 Falcons, and ’67 Raiders. But by being held to just 3 points, Los Angeles came in at a whopping 29.9 points below their regular season average. That narrowly (by, in fact, 1/16th of a point per game) bests the ’13 Broncos as the biggest underachieving result in the Super Bowl. There have been 106 teams to play in the Super Bowl, and despite being the 6th-highest scoring team to make it, LA finished as one of just two teams to score only 3 points in the Super Bowl (no team has ever been shut out).

Edelman didn’t score and the Patriots went 3/12 on 3rd downs…. and he was still the best player on the field.

But the Patriots don’t get off easy here. In the regular season, New England averaged 27.3 points per game, but in Super Bowl LIII, the Patriots couldn’t even get halfway to that total. With just 13 points, New England finished 14.3 points below their regular season average, the single worst result by any of the 53 Super Bowl winners.

So there you have it: the Rams were the lowest scoring team (relative to their average) of any team to lose in the Super Bowl, and the Patriots were the lowest scoring team (relative to their average) of any team to win the Super Bowl. With just 16 points, this was the lowest scoring Super Bowl, of course, but it was expected to be the third highest scoring Super Bowl ever! The Over/Under was 55.5 points, which trails only the ’16 Super Bowl (New England/Atlanta, with an O/U of 57.0 points and 62 points actually scored) and the ’09 Super Bowl (New Orleans/Indianapolis, 56.5, 48).

The biggest overachievers in Super Bowl history? Well, that honor belongs to the ’89 49ers, who averaged 27.6 points per game in the regular season and then doubled up on that number in the Super Bowl. The table below is fully sortable and searchable, and shows all 106 teams to make the Super Bowl, and how many more (or less) points they scored in the Super Bowl compared to their regular season average:

Rk	Tm	Year	Super Bowl	Opp	Result	Reg Sea PPG	PF	Diff
1	SFO	1989	SBXXIV	DEN	W 55-10	27.6	55	27.4
2	DAL	1992	SBXXVII	BUF	W 52-17	25.6	52	26.4
3	TAM	2002	SBXXXVII	OAK	W 48-21	21.6	48	26.4
4	CHI	1985	SBXX	NWE	W 46-10	28.5	46	17.5
5	SFO	1994	SBXXIX	SDG	W 49-26	31.6	49	17.4
6	SEA	2013	SBXLVIII	DEN	W 43-8	26.1	43	16.9
7	WAS	1987	SBXXII	DEN	W 42-10	25.3	42	16.7
8	NYG	1986	SBXXI	DEN	W 39-20	23.2	39	15.8
9	BAL	2000	SBXXXV	NYG	W 34-7	20.8	34	13.2
10	PIT	1978	SBXIII	DAL	W 35-31	22.3	35	12.8
11	PHI	2017	SBLII	NWE	W 41-33	28.6	41	12.4
12	GNB	1966	SBI	KAN	W 35-10	23.9	35	11.1
13	RAI	1983	SBXVIII	WAS	W 38-9	27.6	38	10.4
14	NWE	2003	SBXXXVIII	CAR	W 32-29	21.8	32	10.3
15	GNB	1967	SBII	OAK	W 33-14	23.7	33	9.3
16	BAL	2012	SBXLVII	SFO	W 34-31	24.9	34	9.1
17	CAR	2003	SBXXXVIII	NWE	L 29-32	20.3	29	8.7
18	SFO	1984	SBXIX	MIA	W 38-16	29.7	38	8.3
19	DAL	1978	SBXIII	PIT	L 31-35	24	31	7
20	OAK	1976	SBXI	MIN	W 32-14	25	32	7
21	GNB	2010	SBXLV	PIT	W 31-25	24.3	31	6.8
22	WAS	1991	SBXXVI	BUF	W 37-24	30.3	37	6.7
23	GNB	1996	SBXXXI	NWE	W 35-21	28.5	35	6.5
24	DAL	1993	SBXXVIII	BUF	W 30-13	23.5	30	6.5
25	NWE	2016	SBLI	ATL	W 34-28	27.6	34	6.4
26	SFO	2012	SBXLVII	BAL	L 31-34	24.8	31	6.2
27	WAS	1982	SBXVII	MIA	W 27-17	21.1	27	5.9
28	PIT	2008	SBXLIII	ARI	W 27-23	21.7	27	5.3
29	PIT	1979	SBXIV	RAM	W 31-19	26	31	5
30	NWE	2017	SBLII	PHI	L 33-41	28.6	33	4.4
31	OAK	1980	SBXV	PHI	W 27-10	22.8	27	4.3
32	SFO	1981	SBXVI	CIN	W 26-21	22.3	26	3.7
33	DEN	1998	SBXXXIII	ATL	W 34-19	31.3	34	2.7
34	DAL	1977	SBXII	DEN	W 27-10	24.6	27	2.4
35	IND	2006	SBXLI	CHI	W 29-17	26.7	29	2.3
36	SDG	1994	SBXXIX	SFO	L 26-49	23.8	26	2.2
37	DEN	2015	SB50	CAR	W 24-10	22.2	24	1.8
38	PIT	2010	SBXLV	GNB	L 25-31	23.4	25	1.6
39	DEN	1997	SBXXXII	GNB	W 31-24	29.5	31	1.5
40	DAL	1995	SBXXX	PIT	W 27-17	27.2	27	-0.2
41	MIA	1973	SBVIII	MIN	W 24-7	24.5	24	-0.5
42	SEA	2014	SBXLIX	NWE	L 24-28	24.6	24	-0.6
43	NOR	2009	SBXLIV	IND	W 31-17	31.9	31	-0.9
44	NYG	1990	SBXXV	BUF	W 20-19	20.9	20	-0.9
45	RAM	1979	SBXIV	PIT	L 19-31	20.2	19	-1.2
46	NWE	2014	SBXLIX	SEA	W 28-24	29.3	28	-1.3
47	GNB	1997	SBXXXII	DEN	L 24-31	26.4	24	-2.4
48	KAN	1969	SBIV	MIN	W 23-7	25.6	23	-2.6
49	SFO	1988	SBXXIII	CIN	W 20-16	23.1	20	-3.1
50	PHI	2004	SBXXXIX	NWE	L 21-24	24.1	21	-3.1
51	NWE	2001	SBXXXVI	STL	W 20-17	23.2	20	-3.2
52	NWE	2004	SBXXXIX	PHI	W 24-21	27.3	24	-3.3
53	PIT	2005	SBXL	SEA	W 21-10	24.3	21	-3.3
54	DEN	1986	SBXXI	NYG	L 20-39	23.6	20	-3.6
55	NYG	2011	SBXLVI	NWE	W 21-17	24.6	21	-3.6
56	ARI	2008	SBXLIII	PIT	L 23-27	26.7	23	-3.7
57	BUF	1991	SBXXVI	WAS	L 24-37	28.6	24	-4.6
58	MIA	1982	SBXVII	WAS	L 17-27	22	17	-5
59	DAL	1971	SBVI	MIA	W 24-3	29	24	-5
60	NWE	1996	SBXXXI	GNB	L 21-35	26.1	21	-5.1
61	CIN	1981	SBXVI	SFO	L 21-26	26.3	21	-5.3
62	PIT	1975	SBX	DAL	W 21-17	26.6	21	-5.6
63	ATL	2016	SBLI	NWE	L 28-34	33.8	28	-5.8
64	PIT	1974	SBIX	MIN	W 16-6	21.8	16	-5.8
65	NYG	2007	SBXLII	NWE	W 17-14	23.3	17	-6.3
66	BUF	1992	SBXXVII	DAL	L 17-52	23.8	17	-6.8
67	BAL	1970	SBV	DAL	W 16-13	22.9	16	-6.9
68	OAK	2002	SBXXXVII	TAM	L 21-48	28.1	21	-7.1
69	BUF	1993	SBXXVIII	DAL	L 13-30	20.6	13	-7.6
70	BUF	1990	SBXXV	NYG	L 19-20	26.8	19	-7.8
71	MIN	1976	SBXI	OAK	L 14-32	21.8	14	-7.8
72	DAL	1975	SBX	PIT	L 17-21	25	17	-8
73	DAL	1970	SBV	BAL	L 13-16	21.4	13	-8.4
74	PIT	1995	SBXXX	DAL	L 17-27	25.4	17	-8.4
75	TEN	1999	SBXXXIV	STL	L 16-23	24.5	16	-8.5
76	ATL	1998	SBXXXIII	DEN	L 19-34	27.6	19	-8.6
77	IND	2009	SBXLIV	NOR	L 17-31	26	17	-9
78	DEN	1977	SBXII	DAL	L 10-27	19.6	10	-9.6
79	CHI	2006	SBXLI	IND	L 17-29	26.7	17	-9.7
80	STL	1999	SBXXXIV	TEN	W 23-16	32.9	23	-9.9
81	CIN	1988	SBXXIII	SFO	L 16-20	28	16	-12
82	DEN	1989	SBXXIV	SFO	L 10-55	22.6	10	-12.6
83	NWE	1985	SBXX	CHI	L 10-46	22.6	10	-12.6
84	NYG	2000	SBXXXV	BAL	L 7-34	20.5	7	-13.5
85	MIA	1972	SBVII	WAS	W 14-7	27.5	14	-13.5
86	NYJ	1968	SBIII	BAL	W 16-7	29.9	16	-13.9
87	PHI	1980	SBXV	OAK	L 10-27	24	10	-14
88	MIN	1973	SBVIII	MIA	L 7-24	21.1	7	-14.1
89	NWE	2018	SBLIII	LAR	W 13-3	27.3	13	-14.3
90	STL	2001	SBXXXVI	NWE	L 17-20	31.4	17	-14.4
91	NWE	2011	SBXLVI	NYG	L 17-21	32.1	17	-15.1
92	DEN	1987	SBXXII	WAS	L 10-42	25.3	10	-15.3
93	MIA	1984	SBXIX	SFO	L 16-38	32.1	16	-16.1
94	MIN	1974	SBIX	PIT	L 6-16	22.1	6	-16.1
95	WAS	1972	SBVII	MIA	L 7-14	24	7	-17
96	SEA	2005	SBXL	PIT	L 10-21	28.3	10	-18.3
97	OAK	1967	SBII	GNB	L 14-33	33.4	14	-19.4
98	MIA	1971	SBVI	DAL	L 3-24	22.5	3	-19.5
99	MIN	1969	SBIV	KAN	L 7-23	27.1	7	-20.1
100	CAR	2015	SB50	DEN	L 10-24	31.3	10	-21.3
101	BAL	1968	SBIII	NYJ	L 7-16	28.7	7	-21.7
102	KAN	1966	SBI	GNB	L 10-35	32	10	-22
103	NWE	2007	SBXLII	NYG	L 14-17	36.8	14	-22.8
104	WAS	1983	SBXVIII	RAI	L 9-38	33.8	9	-24.8
105	DEN	2013	SBXLVIII	SEA	L 8-43	37.9	8	-29.9
106	LAR	2018	SBLIII	NWE	L 3-13	32.9	3	-29.9

The Patriots have actually scored below their expectation in 6 of the 9 Super Bowls under Brady and Belichick, with Super Bowl LIII being the worst offender in a winning effort and Super Bowl XLII being the worst performance overall. With better defenses in the Super Bowl, this isn’t too surprising: 67 of the 106 teams (63%) scored fewer points in the Super Bowl than they averaged during the regular season.

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