[Editor’s note: this is a repost from last year, with a few updates.]

The first four Super Bowls were all played on grass stadiums: the first Super Bowl was at Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, the Orange Bowl in Miami hosted Super Bowls II and III, and Tulane Stadium in New Orleans was the venue for Super Bowl IV.

But the dreaded AstroTurf revolution came to football in the ’70s. For Super Bowl V, the Orange Bowl in Miami was again the host site, but by now, the natural grass surface had been replaced with Poly-Turf, making it the first Super Bowl played on artificial turf.

The same thing happened the next year, at Super Bowl VI, as Tulane Stadium followed suit and resurfaced its field with Poly-Turf. And after a return to Memorial Coliseum in southern California for Super Bowl VII, the Dolphins and Vikings met in the first Super Bowl played on nylon texturized AstroTurf in Super Bowl VIII at Rice Stadium in Houston:

Four years later, we had our next big change in Super Bowl history: the indoor stadium. Super Bowl XII at the Louisiana Superdome was the first Super Bowl played indoors, and since that was the only option for that era, it was therefore played on the artificial turf known as Astroturf:

For much of the ’80s and ’90s, Super Bowls were played outdoors in California or Florida ^[1]With the lone outdoors exception being Super Bowl XXX, between the Cowboys and Steelers, being played at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona., or in the Louisiana Superdome or Georgia Dome on artificial turf. ^[2]With one Super Bowl each at new domed stadiums with artificial turf in Detroit and Minneapolis. And, as you know, they were usually not very competitive.

Last season, the Patriots and Rams battled in Super Bowl LIII, but for surface purposes, it was the first Patriots/Rams Super Bowl that is the noteworthy one. That’s because Super Bowl XXXVI, again at the Louisiana Superdome, was the very last Super Bowl played on artificial turf:

The following year’s Super Bowl ^[3]Super Bowl XXXVII, between the Raiders and Bucs, was played in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. was on grass, but the 2003 season gave us the first Super Bowl played inside a stadium with a retractable roof and the first Super Bowl played indoors but not on astroturf. The picture above shows Adam Vinatieri after the game-winning kick on Astroturf in the Louisiana Superdome; the photo below shows him two years later in the middle of his game-winning kick on natural grass at NRG Stadium (then Reliant Stadium) in Houston:

The difference is striking. And so is the difference between the old Astroturf and FieldTurf and other modern artificial fields. Astoturf fields had nylon turf fibers with no sand infill that led to field burns and very hard (and sometimes hot) surfaces; the modern synthetic turfs we see usually have grass or artificial fibers, with sand and tiny rubber particles between them, which absorb shock and operate more like the best of natural grass fields.

When the Patriots played the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, the game was played indoors on natural grass at University of Phoenix Stadium, in Glendale, Arizona. Four years later, in Super Bowl XLVI, the teams met again at a stadium with a retractable roof, this time on Field Turf in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Take a look:

There have now been 7 Super Bowls played inside stadiums with a retractable roof: two at Reliant/NRG Stadium in Houston, two at the University of Phoenix Stadium, and one each at the new stadiums in Arlington, Indianapolis, and Atlanta. Every single game was decided by less than a touchdown other than last year’s 13-3 game, which was still competitive throughout. There have also been 3 Super Bowls played indoors on modern artificial turf at pure dome stadiums ^[4]The Steelers/Seahawks Super Bowl XL game at Ford Field in Detroit, the Ravens/49ers Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans (which moved from Astroturf to FieldTurf in … Continue reading since the retirement of the green concrete known as AstroTurf, and two of those three went down to the wire, too.

That means 8 of the 10 Super Bowls played in dome stadiums on field turf or in retractable roof stadiums (with either field turf or natural grass) have been exciting, one-score contests. ^[5]The two outliers: Pittsburgh/Seattle in Detroit, and last season’s Patriots/Rams Super Bowl at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, which features a retractable roof (closed for the game) … Continue reading The small sample size is very small, but it’s logical to think that the pristine nature of the conditions puts everyone on a more even, well, playing field. Games outdoors are subject to the elements, including the one game played outdoors on FieldTurf (the Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford). And games played on the brutal Astroturf had even more complaints about the playing surface.

To put things in perspective, the graph below shows each of the first 53 Super Bowls. The games are listed chronologically, with the year on the X-Axis. The Y-Axis shows the margin of victory in each game, with a circle high up on the chart indicating a blowout, and a circle low next to the X-Axis indicating a close game. And the games have been color-coded based on the playing surface: either Poly-Turf or AstroTurf, a grass field outdoors, or modern artificial turf (or inside a closed stadium on natural grass). And, for the sake of completeness, the Broncos/Seahawks game is listed in a separate color, too, since it’s the most unusual game in terms of playing conditions.

As you can see, the closest games have come in the best surface and playing conditions. There were 15 games played on Astroturf, and the average margin of victory was 15.3 points. There have been 27 Super Bowls played outdoors on natural grass, and the average margin of victory was 15.5 points. There was 1 Super Bowl played outdoors on field turf, and the margin of victory was 35 points.

And then there have been 10 Super Bowls played indoors on field turf or natural grass, and the average margin of victory has been just 5.8 points. Consider that of the last 12 Super Bowls, 9 were played indoors, and all were decided in the final minutes. Of the other 4, they were all played outdoors on natural grass, and three were won by double digits. Is this all just randomness? That is probably the case.

So what can we expect in two weeks at Super Bowl LIV? This will be the record-breaking 11th Super Bowl to be played in the city of Miami. The first 5 were played at the Orange Bowl near downtown Miami, with the last 5 (and soon to be 6) played 14 miles north in Miami Gardens at Joe Robbie Stadium/Pro Player Stadium/Dolphin Stadium/Hard Rock Stadium. The average temperature has been 65 degrees, ranging from 49 to 74 degrees at kickoff. The big weather-related concern is rain: in Super Bowl XLI between the Colts and Bears, the rain impacted not just the game, but the halftime show as well:

That was the only Super Bowl truly impacted by rain: Super Bowl IV in New Orleans had some rain before the game that muddied the field, and it rained in parts of several Super Bowls, including Super Bowl XIII in Miami. Hopefully we have great weather for Super Bowl LIV, which should be a classic matchup between two excellent teams.