Below are 31 questions, where the answer to each question is Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, or tie. All stats are through 2018 and regular season only, unless expressly noted otherwise.

Post your score in the comments! The honor system will be strictly enforced.

1. Which quarterback won more games?

2. Which quarterback has a higher career winning percentage?

3. Which quarterback won the most Super Bowls as a starter?

4. Which quarterback won the most AP MVP awards?

5. Which quarterback earned the most 1st-team All-Pro selections from the Associated Press?

6. Which quarterback made the most Pro Bowls?

7. Which quarterback led the league in completion percentage most often?

8. Which quarterback led the league in TD/INT ratio most often?

9. Which quarterback led the league in passer rating most often?

10. Which quarterback led the league in ANY/A most often?

11. Which quarterback led the league in Passing Touchdowns most often?

12. Which quarterback had fewer (i.e., a better amount of) fumbles?

13. Which quarterback had more rushing TDs?

14. Which quarterback had more rushing yards?

15. Which quarterback had more rushing yards per carry?

The next set of questions cover the statistics produced by each quarterback relative to the other passers of his era. For Young, this looks at the 32 quarterbacks with the most pass attempts from 1985 to 1999; for Rodgers, the sample size is the 32 quarterbacks with the most pass attempts from 2005 to 2018.

16. Which quarterback ranks higher in ANY/A?

17. Which quarterback ranks higher in passer rating?

18. Which quarterback ranks higher in TD percentage?

19. Which quarterback ranks better (i.e., lower) in INT percentage?

20. Which quarterback ranks higher in Yards/Attempt?

21. Which quarterback ranks higher in 4th Quarter Comebacks?

22. Which quarterback ranks higher in Game Winning Drives?

23. Which quarterback had a better (i.e., lower) rank in sack rate?

24. Which quarterback ranked better TD/INT ratio?

25. Which quarterback ranked better in Yards/Completion?

Finally, let’s get to some playoff numbers. Which, like everything else here, isn’t easy.

26. Which quarterback won more playoff games?

27. Which quarterback had a better playoff winning percentage?

The next set of questions look at the quarterbacks with the 15 most pass attempts from ’87 to ’98 (for Young) and ’07 to ’16 (for Rodgers) in playoff games:

28. Which quarterback ranks better in Yards/Attempt?

29. Which quarterback ranks better in Passer Rating?

30. Which quarterback ranks better in rushing yards in the playoffs?

31. Which quarterback ranks better in playoff ANY/A?

How did you do?

Aaron Rodgers threw 50 passes on Sunday, but only threw for 233 yards. That’s very un-Aaron Rodgers like, who entered the day as the active leader in career yards per pass attempt. For his career, Rodgers averaged 7.87 yards per attempt prior to Sunday, but after yesterday’s performance — a 4.66 average — his career average dropped to 7.84.

Was this the worst game of Rodgers’s career? He had a game where he averaged 0.00 yards per attempt on one pass, but I don’t think you want to count that. He averaged 2.67 yards/attempt is a game against the Patriots in 2006, but he didn’t start the game and he threw just 12 passes. Maybe you prefer the 22-pass game against the 2015 Broncos as the worst Y/A game of his career, since he picked up just 3.5 yards per pass. Then again, there’s also this game against the Bills in 2014, where he averaged 4.4 yards per attempt on 42 passes; that feels even worse than the Denver game.

Because of the large variance in pass attempts, it’s hard to figure out what’s the worst Y/A game of a player’s career. But here’s one method I like: if you remove game X from a player’s career, how much does his career Y/A change? The game that causes the biggest change could be considered the best or worst game of that player’s career.

And by this methodology, the game against the Cardinals yesterday was in fact the worst game of Rodgers’s career. His career yards/attempt average is 7.840. Remove the game where he threw 1 pass for 0 yards, and his career Y/A is 7.841.  If instead you removed the 12-pass Patriots game, Rodgers’s career average would be 7.851.  If you instead removed the Denver game, his career average would be 7.858.  If the one game from Rodgers’s career you had to remove was that Bills game, his career Y/A would rise to 7.867.

But if you want to get his career Y/A average to 7.87, then you need to take out yesterday’s game.  That’s the game that has lowered his career average the most.  Take a look: [continue reading…]

Aaron Rodgers has thrown just one interception in 10 games this year. That’s 1 interception on a league-high 385 pass attempts. And this was it:

Damon Huard (2006) holds the current record for interception rate in a season at 0.4%; he threw 1 interception on 244 passes, so to beat him, a quarterback would need to either throw no interceptions and 224 passes (to qualify), 1 interception on more than 244 passes, 2 interceptions on more than 488 passes, or 3 interceptions on more than 672 passes. Rodgers has 1 interception so far this year on 385 pass attempts (0.26%!); he has room to throw one more interception this year and still win the crown, but he probably doesn’t have wiggle room to throw two more.

Josh McCown (2013) had 1 interception on 224 pass attempts (0.4%), putting him second all-time on the single-season list. Tom Brady (2016), Nick Foles (2013), Tom Brady (2010), Dak Prescott (2016), Steve DeBerg (1990), Sam Bradford (2016), and David Garrard (2007) are the only other players to throw fewer than 1 interception for every 100 passes in a season, min 14 pass attempts per team game. (Oh, and Drew Brees has a 0.3% interception rate this year, too: he has 1 interception on 304 passes).

Interceptions rates have plummeted, of course, so it’s hard to truly compare this season by Rodgers to some of the low interceptions of years past. Here’s the league average interception rate in every season since 1970:

Another thing that makes Rodgers’ 2018 interception rate so interesting, particularly compared to Brees, is that Rodgers has thrown a lot of incomplete passes. In fact, he’s thrown more than twice as many incomplete passes as Brees — 147 to 69. The graph below shows every player this season with an interception (no regular quarterback has zero interceptions). The X-Axis shows interceptions; the Y-Axis shows incomplete passes. Rodgers really stands out here, and while you didn’t need the help finding him, I colored his dot in Packers colors:

Rodgers is tied with Joe Flacco for the league lead in incomplete passes at 147, and yet he is also tied with Brees for the fewest interceptions among qualifying passers. That’s how extreme Rodgers has been this year. Consider that Rodgers has thrown an interception on just 0.7% of his incomplete passes; Brees ranks second with an interception on 1.4% of his passes, and nobody else has thrown an interception on fewer than 2.8% of interceptions. Huard in 2006 (1.0%) currently has the record for interception rate on incomplete passes, and that’s another mark Rodgers has in his sights.

It’s been an up-and-down year for Rodgers. For example:

• His winning percentage is below .500, the worst of his career since his first year as a starter in 2008.
• His touchdown rate is below 5.0% for the first time in his career.
• His completion percentage is 62%, the second lowest of his career.

On the other hand, his sack rate is slightly better than his (not very good) career average, his yards/attempt is slightly better than (his remarkably good) career average, he’s averaging more passing yards/game than any season other than 2011, and he’s posting by far the best interception rate of his career, which has been littered with remarkable interception rates.

Rodgers entered the season with a remarkable TD/INT ratio, and it’s only gotten better.  He’s now at 4.20/1, easily the best in history (only Brady and Russell Wilson — both are at 3.02 to 1 — have more than 3 touchdown passes for every interception).  And while it’s been a rough year for Rodgers, he’s in position to set a new record in 2018.

Who are the worst passing teams of the last three years? The Browns are the obvious and correct choice as the worst passing attack, and you won’t hear arguments from many if you include the Texans, Ravens, and 49ers in that group. Those four teams have all averaged 5.7 or fewer net yards per passing attempt since 2015, the simplest measure of passing efficiency.

But the fifth-worst team over the last three years is a shocker: it’s the Green Bay Packers. Yes, Aaron Rodgers missed most of last season (and Brett Hundley was terrible in his stead), but you may not remember that the Packers offense had a lot of struggles in 2015 playing without Jordy Nelson, who has been very instrumental to Rodgers’s success. Yes, Rodgers had his always glowing TD/INT ratio in 2015, but he ranked 32nd out of 36 qualifying passers in NY/A that season.  And Rodgers’s struggles creeped into September of 2016, too, before he finally turned things around.

Still, we think of him as Aaron freakin’ Rodgers, so it’s jarring to see that — even with half a season of Hundley — Green Bay ranks in the bottom five of any passing stat.  To be sure, NY/A has always been Rodgers’s weakest stat, since his TD rate and INT rate are what have buoyed his success. So let’s instead look at Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, a stat that Rodgers remains the career leader in since 1970.

The graph below shows the trailing 16-game ANY/A average of the Packers passing attack over each 16 game period beginning with the 16th game of the 2008 season (Rodgers’s first as a starter).  The Packers line is in green and yellow; the league average is in black.  As you can see, things are not trending in the right direction, and even as of the middle of 2016, the T16G average was pretty ugly: [continue reading…]

Today at 538: What is wrong with Aaron Rodgers?

From 2008 to 2014, Rodgers averaged 7.34 yards per dropback,¹ according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group. Rodgers’s rate was the second-best during that time period and just 0.01 yards per dropback behind Peyton Manning’s. That sort of dominant play earned Rodgers two MVP awards and helped the Packers win a Super Bowl.

Recently, things haven’t gone quite so well. Rodgers has averaged 5.79 yards per dropback since the start of 2015. Since November of last year, the Packers are just 5-7. And Rodgers is in the middle of a cold spell prolonged enough to prompt his coach to chip in with a vote of confidence — never a great sign. But what’s to blame for the decline — a change in scheme? Rodgers’s skills? The steady physical destruction of his most trusted receivers? That’s tough to untangle, but we can give it a try.

You can read the full article here.

Last night, Aaron Rodgers threw a walk-off, game-winning Hail Mary to Richard Rodgers to beat the Lions. According to Elias, it’s the longest game-winning Hail Mary in NFL history. And yet, perhaps most incredible part of the play was not how long it was, but high high it was:

And here’s how I picture Lions fans during the middle of that pass.

But while this may have been the longest Hail Mary pass in history, it certainly wasn’t the longest walk-off passing touchdown in history.

Also of note: this was the 9th touchdown pass, including playoffs, from Rodgers to Rodgers, which ties the same name passing touchdown NFL record.

This week at the New York Times, we begin with a look at the impressive triplets being groomed in Oakland: quarterback Derek Carr, running back Latavius Murray, and wide receiver Amari Cooper.  They made a bit of history on Sunday:

Against the Browns, Carr threw for 314 yards, Murray rushed for 139 yards, and Cooper gained 134 receiving yards. It was the first time the Raiders had a 300-yard passer, a 100-yard rusher and a 100-yard receiver since 2010. But perhaps more impressive, this game marked only the 12th time since 1970 that any franchise had a 300-yard passer, a 100-yard rusher and a 100-yard receiver, with all three being 25 years or younger.

You can read the full article here.

Also, here is yet another ode to the greatness that is Aaron Rodgers.

 

It has been over three years since Rodgers lost a regular-season game at Lambeau, excluding a November 2013 game against the Bears in which he left the game because of an injury after two pass attempts. Putting aside that contest, the Packers have won 20 consecutive regular-season home games under Rodgers, with an average margin of victory of over 16 points.

…

The raw totals are mind-boggling. In Rodgers’s last 18 games at home (excluding that Bears game), he has completed 394 of 572 passes (68.9 percent) for an incredible 5,212 yards (9.1 yards per attempt), with 48 touchdowns and zero interceptions. During that time, the Packers have gone 17-1 and averaged 34.8 points per game, with the only loss coming in the 2013 playoffs to the San Francisco 49ers.

You can read the full article here.

Adam Steele is back to discuss Marginal YAC, this time in the context of the 2014 season. You can view all of Adam’s posts here.

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Back in September, I posted a three part series introducing Marginal Air Yards and Marginal YAC. Today, I’m going to update the numbers for 2014 and analyze some interesting tidbits from the just completed season. ^[1]A big thanks to Chad Langager at sportingcharts.com for helping me compile this data.

League-wide passing efficiency reached an all-time high in 2014 with a collective 6.13 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average. However, this past season was also the most conservative passing season in NFL history; 2014 saw the highest completion rate ever (62.6%), the lowest interception rate ever (2.5%), and also the lowest air yards per completion rate ever (5.91 Air/C). Passing yards were comprised of 51.4% yards through the air and 48.6% yards after the catch, the most YAC-oriented season in history. ^[2]Even though YAC data only goes back to 1992, I feel safe in using the phrase “all-time” with regard to YAC dependency. The offensive schemes of yesteryear emphasized downfield passing, which … Continue reading This trend shows no sign of reversing itself, so expect more of the same in 2015.

Here are the 2014 Marginal Air Yards (mAir) and Marginal YAC (mYAC) for quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. The 2014 leader in Marginal Air Yards is…Peyton Manning? Yes, the noodle-armed, duck-throwing, over-the-hill Peyton Manning averaged 4.54 Air Yards per pass Attempt; given that the average passer on this list averaged 3.70 Air Yards per pass Attempt, this means Manning averaged 0.84 Air Yards per Attempt over average. Over the course of his 597 attempts, this means Manning gets credited with 500 marginal Air Yards, the most of any quarterback in the NFL. [continue reading…]

This week at the New York Times, a look at the best quarterback in football.

When an athlete is having an excellent season, it is common for the home fans to break out into chants of “M.V.P.” from time to time. This year, in Green Bay, a five-letter cheer may be more appropriate.

“R-E-L-A-X.”

That is what quarterback Aaron Rodgers told Packers fans after a loss to Detroit dropped Green Bay’s record to 1-2. One could understand the fans’ frustration: The Packers scored 16 points and looked overmatched in an opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks; looked inconsistent in a comeback victory over the Jets; then scored 7 points in the Week 3 loss to the Lions. Of course, a bad stretch for Rodgers looks like a great stretch for just about every other quarterback: Through the three games he had still thrown five touchdown passes against one interception.

But the Packers’ offense was struggling: Green Bay ranked 27th in scoring through three games. The passing attack ranked 24th in yards per attempt and the team was tied for 26th in rushing yards. The Packers gained 223 yards of offense against the Lions, the fewest in a game under Rodgers since the 2008 season. The 7 points were the fewest in any game that Rodgers had started for the Packers other than another 7-point effort against the Lions in 2010 when Rodgers left the game with an injury in the first half. For a fan base used to dominant offenses, the 2014 Packers were off to an ugly start.

You can read the full article here.

During the 2013 offseason, I wrote 32 articles under the RPO 2013 tag. In my Predictions in Review series, I review those preview articles with the benefit of hindsight. Previously, I reviewed the AFC West, the NFC West, the AFC South, the NFC South, and the AFC North. Today, the NFC North.

The Detroit Lions will win more games in 2013, June 21, 2013

In 2012, Detroit finished 4-12, but they seemed like an obvious pick to have a rebound season. The Lions went 3-9 in games decided by 8 or fewer points that year, which was the worst mark in the league. Since such a poor record is usually a sign of bad luck rather than bad skill, Detroit wouldn’t need to do much to improve on their 4-win season. The Lions had 6.4 Pythagorean wins, and no team fell as far short of their Pythagorean record in 2012 as Detroit. There was one other reason I highlighted as to why Detroit would win more games in 2013: the Lions recovered only 33% of all fumbles that occurred in Detroit games. As a result, the team recovered 7.6 fewer fumbles than expected.

Of course, none of this was a surprise: Vegas pegged Detroit as an average team entering the season. And even though the Lions did finish 7-9, a three-win improvement wasn’t enough to save Jim Schwartz’ job. After a 3-9 record the year before, the 2013 Lions went 4-6 in games decided by 8 or fewer points, which included losses in the team’s final three games.  Detroit did improve when it came to fumble recoveries, but only slightly: the Lions recovered 42.6% of all fumbles in their games in 2013, which was 3.6 recoveries fewer than expected.

What can we learn: When it comes to records in close games and fumble recovery rates, we should expect regression to the mean.  Last year, the Colts (6-1) and Jets (5-1) had the best records in close games; Andrew Luck has been doing this for two years now, but no such benefit of the doubt should be given to the Jets. Meanwhile, Houston (2-9) and Washington (2-7) had the worst records in close games. All else being equal, we would expect both of those teams to improve on their wins total in 2014 (for the 2-14 Texans, it will take some work not to win more games in 2014; and, of course, such rebound seasons are already baked into the Vegas lines).

As far as fumble recovery rates, well, that’s one area where the Jets are hoping for some regression to the mean.

The 2012 Chicago Bears had the Least Strange Season Ever, August 2, 2013

Here’s what I wrote about the 2012 Bears:

The 2012 Bears played two terrible teams, the Titans and the Jaguars. Those were the two biggest blowouts of the season for Chicago. The Bears had five games against really good teams (Seattle, San Francisco, Houston, and the Packers twice): those were the five biggest losses of the season. Chicago had one other loss, which came on the road against the next best team the Bears played, Minnesota.
…
But the Bears didn’t just have a predictable season. That -0.89 correlation coefficient [between Chicago’s opponent’s rating and location-adjusted margin of victory] is the lowest for any 16-game season in NFL history. In other words, Chicago just had the least strange season of the modern era.

This post was not about predicting Chicago’s 2013 season but analyzing a quirky fact I discovered. The Bears struggled against the best teams in 2012, and that cost Lovie Smith his job. In 2013, Chicago’s season was much more normal; in fact, the Bears had a slightly “stranger” season than the average team.

The Bears did manage to defeat the Bengals and Packers (without Aaron Rodgers), but Chicago still finished below .500 against playoff teams thanks to losses to New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Green Bay (with Aaron Rodgers). After a 2-6 performance against playoff teams in 2012, I suppose a 2-3 record is an improvement. But the irony is that the reason Chicago’s season was less normal in 2013 wasn’t due to better play against the best teams, but because Chicago lost to Minnesota and Washington. In the first year post-Lovie, the Bears missed the playoffs because they lost to two of the worst teams in the league, causing them to miss out on the division title by one half-game. Here’s one stat I bet Lovie Smith knows: from 2005 to 2012, Chicago went 30-0 against teams that finished the season with fewer than six wins. As for which teams had the strangest and least strangest seasons in 2013? Check back tomorrow.

Can Adrian Peterson break Emmitt Smith’s rushing record?, August 3, 2013

What a difference a year makes. Eight months ago, the debate regarding whether Adrian Peterson could break Smith’s record was a legitimate talking point. After a “down” season with 1,266 yards in 14 games, nobody is asking that question anymore. Of course, Peterson never had much of a chance of breaking the record anyway, which was the point of my post. Not only had Smith outgained him Peterson through each of their first six seasons, and not only did Smith enter the league a year earlier than Peterson, but Emmitt Smith was also the leader in career rushing yards after a player’s first six seasons.

Peterson just turned 29 years old. He ranks sixth in career rushing yards through age 28, but Smith has a 1,119 yard advantage when it comes to rushing yards through age 28. Barry Sanders has them both beat, of course, but he retired after his age 30 season. The problem for Peterson? He needs to run for 8,241 yards during his age 29+ seasons to break Smith’s record. The career leader in yards after turning 29 is Smith with 7,121 yards.

What can we learn: Unless Peterson finds the fountain of youth, Smith’s record won’t be challenged for a long, long time.

Witnesses to Greatness: Aaron Rodgers Edition, August 30, 2013

In late August, I wondered if we had taken Rodgers’ dominance for granted. After all, he had a career passer rating of 104.9, the best ever. Then in 2013, he produced a passer rating of … 104.9, the fifth best mark among qualifying passers.

Passer rating stinks, as we all know, but Rodgers is dominant in nearly every metric. If we break passer rating down into its four parts we see:

• Entering 2013, Rodgers was the career leader in completion percentage. Drew Brees now holds a 0.1% edge over Rodgers in this category. Rodgers completed 66.6% of his passes last year, the 5th best mark of 2013.
• Rodgers was the career leader in interception rate entering 2013, and still holds that crown. Believe it or not, his 2.1% interception rate last year ranked only 12th.
• With a 5.9% touchdown rate in 2013 (5th best), he remains the active leader in touchdown percentage. Everyone ahead of him on the career list began their career before 1960.
• Rodgers was the active leader in yards/attempt prior to 2013, and then he had another dominant year by producing an 8.7 average (2nd best). He’s now widened his lead in this metric and should remain the active leader for the foreseeable future.

What can we learn: That Rodgers is the man? Of course, this year we got to see that first-hand. The Packers went 6-3 in Rodgers’ 9 starts and 2-4-1 without him, but remember, he threw just two passes in his Bears start, which the Packers lost. Count that as a non-Rodgers game, and Green Bay went 6-2 with him and 2-5-1 without him. From there, one might infer that he added 3.5 wins to the Packers last year, tied for the 4th most ever from a quarterback relative to his backups.

The only area where Rodgers struggles is with sacks, and it’s worth remembering that all of his other rate stats are slightly inflated because they do not include sacks in the denominator. He’s still the man, of course, but sacks, era adjustments, and the fact that he isn’t done producing top seasons is why he “only” ranked 12th and 14th on these lists.

Green Bay started the season 5-2 and seemed on its way to another playoff berth. But in the first quarter of the team’s eighth game, Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone. The Packers lost that game (technically on Rodgers’ ledger as the starter), and have struggled ever since. In his stead, Seneca Wallace went 0-1, Scott Tolzien went 0-1-1, and then Matt Flynn got a chance to lose on Thanksgiving against the Lions before salvaging a win against the Falcons last Sunday.

Unsurprisingly, Green Bay is much worse without Rodgers. Using his .625 winning percentage as a starter this year, we might presume that the Packers would have won 3.125 out of the team’s five games that he’s missed. Instead, Green Bay has won 1.5 out of five games; that means Rodgers would have provided 1.625 Wins Above the Other QBs on the roster. (If we did not count the Bears game as a Rodgers game, then Rodgers would have provided 2.79 Wins Above the Other QBs.) Rodgers has been ruled out for the Packers’ pivotal week 15 showdown with the Cowboys; a loss there would bring Rodgers’ value up to 2.25 Wins Above the Other Green Bay QBs.

Where does that rank all time? The biggest discrepancy belongs to the 2002 Rams. The Rams started 0-4 under reigning NFL AP MVP Kurt Warner, and then lost the team’s next game when Jamie Martin started in relief of an injured Warner. For the sixth game, the team turned to Marc Bulger, who led the 0-5 team on a five game winning streak before suffering a finger injury just as the starting quarterback was ready to return. Warner started games 11 and 12, but another injury forced Martin started game 13; St. Louis lost all three games. Bulger then returned and won his 14th start. At that point in the year, St. Louis was 6-0 under Bulger and 0-8 under everyone else. In game 15 against Seattle, Bulger was hurt on the St. Louis’ fourth play from scrimmage; Martin came in and the team lost 30-10. The final game of the year was a meaningless one and started by Scott Covington, although Martin took most of the snaps in a victory over the 49ers.

All told, St. Louis went 6-1 in Bulger starts (including the Seahawks game), while the other Rams quarterbacks posted a 1-8 record. Since we would project a 1-8 team to win just 0.78 out of 7 games, Bulger is given credit for being 5.22 Wins Above the Other QBs for the team.

The table below shows all quarterbacks from 1950 to 2013 to produce at least 2 Wins Above the Other QBs for their team. The formula to calculate WAOQBs is simply the difference between the winning percentages with and without the starting quarterback multiplied by the number of starts by the quarterback or by the other quarterbacks on the team, whichever number is smaller. [continue reading…]

Let’s be honest: we all know Aaron Rodgers is great, so we don’t spend much time talking about him. Debating his ability is pointless, so we instead spend countless hours discussing Tony Romo’s intangibles, Tim Tebow’s throwing motion, Colin Kaepernick’s tattoos, and Joe Flacco’s eliteness. Talk radio dies when it discusses Aaron Rodgers: debating the Packers quarterback is as fun as watching paint dry and as illuminating as asking if water is wet.

But we’re doing a disservice to us all when we ignore how great Rodgers is. I mean, we spend lots of time chronicling the feats of Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson — why not Rodgers?

One way to measure Rodgers’ greatness is to look at passer rating. Now we know that passer rating is wildly overrated, so perhaps you shouldn’t be too impressed to hear that Rodgers has the highest passer rating in history. But consider: Rodgers has a career 104.9 passer rating, well ahead of Steve Young, who is second at 96.8. Chad Pennington sits at #13 on the career passer rating list (an example of why this metric is one I don’t use), but Young is closer to Pennington (90.1) than he is to Rodgers. But there’s an even better way to show Rodgers’ dominance in this statistic.

Passer rating is made up of four metrics. Let’s take a look at how Rodgers ranks in those four categories:
[continue reading…]

I was on vacation last week, so I provided just a bare bones set of NFL playoff predictions. Technically, my picks went 4-0 on Wildcard Weekend, but that doesn’t count for much when you pick the favorite in every game. With a little more time on my hands, here’s an in-depth preview of Saturday’s games. Tomorrow I’ll be previewing Sunday’s action.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) (+9.5) at Denver Broncos (13-3), Saturday 4:30PM ET

Most of the signs in this game point squarely in the favor of Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Baltimore has wildly underachieved on the road the last few seasons, and in Denver does not seem like the optimal place for that trend to reverse itself. From 2002 to 2010, Manning went 8-0 against the Ravens, including a 2-0 mark in playoff games. If you double his numbers in those games (to approximate a 16-game season), Manning would have thrown for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions, while averaging 7.8 Y/A and 7.9 AY/A to go with a 65.6% completion rate and a 97.7 passer rating. Manning was similarly lethal in Denver’s win over the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this year.
[continue reading…]

Last weekend, I looked at career rushing stats in wins and losses; today I will do the same but for quarterbacks.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all quarterbacks with at least 5,000 career passing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each passer:

– His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
– All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
– His number of career wins, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt (which includes a 20-yard bonus for touchdown passes and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions) in wins ^[1]Unfortunately, I excluded sack data from this study due to its general unavailability for most of the covered time period.
– His number of career losses, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt in losses

The table is sorted by AY/A in wins; unsurprisingly, Aaron Rodgers — who is the career leader in that metric — tops this table, too. In fact, Rodgers is also the leader in AY/A in losses. Note that this table includes all games played by the quarterback, not just his starts.

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	PYD	Win	TD%_W	INT%_W	Y/A_W	AY/A_W	Loss	TD%_L	INT%_L	Y/A_L	AY/A_L
1	Aaron Rodgers	2005--2011	gnb	19147	49	7.6%	1.3%	8.7	8.3	27	4.3%	2.5%	7.4	6.4
2	Matt Schaub	2004--2011	atl-htx	17936	48	5.3%	1.7%	8.7	8.1	53	3.5%	3.3%	7.2	5.8
3	Tony Romo	2005--2011	dal	21666	60	6.6%	2.1%	8.7	7.9	43	4.3%	3.4%	7	5.5
4	Kurt Warner	1998--2009	ram-nyg-crd	36296	81	6.8%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	57	3.3%	4.4%	7.2	5.3
5	Daunte Culpepper	1999--2009	min-mia-rai-det	25133	45	7.1%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	64	3.3%	4%	6.9	5.1
6	Bob Berry	1965--1975	min-atl	9197	32	7.4%	2.3%	8.6	7.7	36	4.2%	7.4%	7.1	3.8
7	Steve Young	1985--1999	tam-sfo	36450	125	6.8%	1.7%	8.3	7.6	60	2.9%	4.2%	7.2	5.3
8	Philip Rivers	2004--2011	sdg	26105	69	6.2%	2.3%	8.5	7.6	39	4%	3.1%	7.3	6
9	Ben Roethlisberger	2004--2011	pit	29729	90	5.7%	2.2%	8.4	7.6	38	3.7%	4.9%	7.2	5
10	John Friesz	1990--2000	sdg-was-sea-nwe	8699	19	5%	1%	7.8	7.5	38	2.6%	4%	5.8	4
11	Bart Starr	1960--1971	gnb	22810	99	6.6%	2.9%	8.6	7.5	41	2.4%	5.9%	6.7	4.1
12	Don Meredith	1960--1968	dal	17750	51	8.5%	3.3%	8.8	7.5	50	3.5%	6%	6.2	3.6
13	Drew Brees	2001--2011	sdg-nor	43722	97	6.5%	1.7%	8	7.4	66	3.4%	3.7%	6.7	5.1
14	Ken O'Brien	1984--1993	nyj-phi	25598	56	5.8%	1.7%	8	7.4	72	2.1%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
15	J.P. Losman	2004--2011	buf-rai-mia	6271	17	5.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.4	28	2.5%	4.4%	6.1	4.1
16	Trent Green	1997--2008	was-ram-kan-mia	28794	59	5.3%	2.1%	8.2	7.3	63	3.6%	3.8%	7.1	5.5
17	Rob Johnson	1995--2003	jax-buf-tam-was-rai	5947	20	4.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.3	25	2.8%	3.6%	6.7	5.1
18	Chad Pennington	2000--2010	nyj-mia	19241	46	5.1%	1.2%	7.7	7.3	49	3.2%	4.1%	6.6	4.9
19	Boomer Esiason	1984--1997	cin-nyj-crd	38520	89	6.6%	2.4%	8.2	7.3	103	3.3%	4.4%	6.5	4.6
20	Neil Lomax	1981--1988	crd	23156	48	6.4%	2.1%	8.1	7.3	59	3%	3.3%	6.6	5.2
21	David Garrard	2002--2010	jax	16489	45	5.3%	1.4%	7.8	7.3	44	2.7%	3.4%	6.4	4.9
22	Matthew Stafford	2009--2011	det	8220	13	8.1%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	17	3.4%	4.4%	6.3	4.4
23	Joe Montana	1979--1994	sfo-kan	46323	140	6.4%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	60	2.7%	3.4%	6.3	4.9
24	Eddie LeBaron	1960--1963	dal	5331	11	12.5%	5.5%	9.4	7.2	31	4.7%	8.7%	7.1	3.3
25	Peyton Manning	1998--2010	clt	60217	150	6.3%	1.9%	8	7.2	77	3.9%	4.1%	6.9	5.2
26	Ed Brown	1960--1965	chi-pit-clt	7723	35	7.7%	5.8%	9.7	7.2	33	2.9%	8.8%	6.5	2.6
27	Wade Wilson	1981--1998	min-atl-nor-dal-rai	18605	66	6.1%	2.6%	8.3	7.2	63	2.4%	5.3%	6.2	3.9
28	Jay Cutler	2006--2011	den-chi	18637	42	6.6%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	38	2.7%	4.6%	6.5	4.5
29	Josh Freeman	2009--2011	tam	8898	17	5.6%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	24	2.8%	4.6%	6.1	4.1
30	Tom Brady	2000--2011	nwe	45264	140	6.1%	1.6%	7.8	7.2	43	3.6%	4.2%	6.3	4.5
31	Matt Moore	2007--2011	car-mia	5137	17	6.2%	1.8%	7.8	7.1	19	2.8%	5%	6.2	4
32	Chris Chandler	1988--2004	clt-tam-crd-ram-oti-atl-chi	29212	72	5.9%	2.6%	8.2	7.1	105	3.1%	4.4%	6.4	4.4
33	Len Dawson	1960--1975	cle-kan	30112	105	8.7%	3.6%	8.6	7.1	64	3.2%	6.3%	6.6	3.8
34	Joe Flacco	2008--2011	rav	15348	49	4.6%	1.2%	7.6	7.1	24	3%	4.4%	5.9	4
35	Trent Edwards	2007--2010	buf-jax	6019	14	4%	1.6%	7.7	7.1	22	2%	4.3%	5.7	3.8
36	Jeff Garcia	1999--2009	sfo-cle-det-phi-tam	26894	63	5.4%	1.3%	7.5	7.1	68	3.4%	3.1%	6.4	5.1
37	Ken Anderson	1971--1986	cin	34159	100	6.2%	2.4%	8	7.1	92	2.7%	4.7%	6.7	4.7
38	Rudy Bukich	1960--1968	pit-chi	7865	30	7.5%	3.5%	8.5	7	35	3.5%	8.6%	6	2.3
39	Troy Aikman	1989--2000	dal	36791	105	4.8%	2.1%	7.9	7	76	2.1%	4.1%	6	4.2
40	Damon Huard	1998--2008	mia-nwe-kan	6349	20	4.9%	1.1%	7.4	7	24	2%	4.3%	5.8	4
41	Jim Everett	1986--1997	ram-nor-sdg	35957	66	5.7%	2.6%	8.1	7	97	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
42	Roger Staubach	1969--1979	dal	25491	106	6.1%	2.5%	8	7	44	3.5%	6.3%	6.7	3.9
43	Bert Jones	1973--1982	clt-ram	18589	47	6.4%	3.1%	8.2	7	58	3.6%	4.6%	6.3	4.3
44	Frank Reich	1985--1998	buf-car-nyj-det	6858	39	8.8%	2.1%	7.7	7	39	3.3%	4.3%	6.3	4.4
45	Jeff Hostetler	1986--1997	nyg-rai-was	17464	70	5.5%	1.9%	7.7	7	40	2.3%	4.1%	6.3	4.5
46	Dan Fouts	1973--1987	sdg	45165	91	5.9%	3.2%	8.3	6.9	95	3.1%	5.5%	7.1	4.7
47	Bill Kenney	1980--1988	kan	17374	37	5.9%	2.5%	8	6.9	49	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
48	Y.A. Tittle	1960--1964	sfo-nyg	11542	40	8.9%	4.3%	8.7	6.9	23	2.5%	6.9%	5.7	2.7
49	Mark Brunell	1994--2011	gnb-jax-was-nor-nyj	33905	99	4.8%	1.8%	7.6	6.9	91	3.2%	2.9%	6.2	4.9
50	Aaron Brooks	2000--2006	nor-rai	20822	41	5.8%	1.6%	7.5	6.9	54	3.3%	4.1%	6.4	4.7
51	Patrick Ramsey	2002--2008	was-nyj-den	5929	16	5.2%	2.3%	7.8	6.9	24	3.1%	3.8%	5.8	4.2
52	Scott Mitchell	1992--2001	mia-det-rav-cin	15925	40	6%	2.1%	7.7	6.9	45	2.6%	4.6%	5.9	3.9
53	Randy Wright	1984--1988	gnb	7106	12	5.4%	3.4%	8.3	6.9	33	2.2%	5.5%	5.9	3.5
54	Rich Gannon	1987--2004	min-was-kan-rai	30434	91	5.5%	1.5%	7.4	6.9	71	3%	3.6%	6.2	4.6
55	Earl Morrall	1960--1976	det-nyg-clt-mia	17529	92	7.9%	4.8%	8.9	6.9	44	4.2%	6.9%	6.6	3.6
56	Sonny Jurgensen	1960--1974	phi-was	31546	74	7.7%	3.9%	8.4	6.9	79	4.5%	4.9%	6.8	4.7
57	Steve DeBerg	1978--1998	sfo-den-tam-kan-mia-atl	34752	72	5.4%	2.3%	7.8	6.9	114	3.2%	4.9%	6.4	4.2
58	Steve Beuerlein	1988--2003	rai-dal-crd-jax-car-den	24317	64	5.6%	2.3%	7.8	6.8	66	3.4%	4.2%	6.8	5
59	Fran Tarkenton	1961--1978	min-nyg	48806	131	6.8%	2.8%	8	6.8	117	3.6%	5.5%	6.5	4.1
60	John Brodie	1960--1973	sfo	30783	78	6.7%	3.3%	8.2	6.8	79	3.3%	6%	6.1	3.5
61	Doug Flutie	1986--2005	chi-nwe-buf-sdg	15209	48	5.2%	2.4%	7.8	6.8	45	2.9%	3.9%	6	4.3
62	Johnny Unitas	1960--1973	clt-sdg	32335	107	6.3%	3.8%	8.4	6.8	59	2.7%	7.3%	6.5	3.2
63	Joe Namath	1965--1977	nyj-ram	28299	68	6.4%	4%	8.5	6.8	71	3.3%	6.8%	6.5	3.5
64	Matt Ryan	2008--2011	atl	14832	43	6.1%	1.9%	7.5	6.8	22	2.4%	3%	6.1	4.8
65	Craig Erickson	1992--1997	tam-clt-mia	7625	18	4.8%	2.7%	7.9	6.8	34	3.2%	3.9%	6.5	4.8
66	Marc Bulger	2002--2009	ram	23758	42	4.9%	2.6%	7.8	6.8	57	3.1%	3.3%	6.8	5.4
67	Matt Cassel	2005--2011	nwe-kan	11769	42	5.1%	2%	7.6	6.8	30	3.5%	3.3%	5.7	4.3
68	Tom Flores	1960--1969	rai-buf-kan	11960	40	8.3%	3.8%	8.3	6.8	44	2.8%	6.7%	5.7	2.8
69	Phil Simms	1979--1993	nyg	35141	102	5.3%	2.5%	7.7	6.7	72	3%	4.3%	6.4	4.6
70	Derek Anderson	2006--2011	cle-crd-car	9148	21	5.5%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	32	2.7%	4.6%	5.7	3.6
71	Michael Vick	2001--2011	atl-phi	18889	65	5.8%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	51	2.8%	3.4%	6.3	4.9
72	Brett Favre	1991--2010	atl-gnb-nyj-min	77693	201	6.3%	2.2%	7.6	6.7	125	3.2%	4.9%	6.4	4.3
73	Craig Morton	1965--1982	dal-nyg-den	29143	118	6.7%	3.7%	8.2	6.7	82	2.6%	6.5%	6.2	3.4
74	Steve Pelluer	1985--1990	dal-kan	6870	17	3.3%	2.2%	7.6	6.7	26	2.9%	4.7%	6.9	4.8
75	Dan Marino	1983--1999	mia	65871	155	5.7%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	105	4.1%	3.9%	6.8	5.1
76	Donovan McNabb	1999--2011	phi-was-min	40859	106	5.4%	2%	7.4	6.7	74	2.9%	2.6%	6.1	5
77	Dave Krieg	1980--1998	sea-kan-det-crd-chi-oti	40042	113	6.7%	3%	7.9	6.7	98	3%	4.4%	6.5	4.5
78	Warren Moon	1984--2000	oti-min-sea-kan	52195	108	5.5%	2.6%	7.7	6.6	110	3.1%	4.2%	6.8	4.9
79	Jim Kelly	1986--1996	buf	39330	110	6.1%	3.2%	8	6.6	67	3.1%	4.6%	6.6	4.6
80	John Hadl	1962--1977	sdg-ram-gnb-oti	33941	103	7%	3.7%	8.2	6.6	92	3.3%	7.8%	6.1	2.7
81	Bernie Kosar	1985--1996	cle-dal-mia	25254	67	4.8%	1.9%	7.4	6.6	66	3.1%	3.4%	6.6	5.1
82	Jake Delhomme	1999--2011	nor-car-cle-htx	22822	65	5.5%	2.9%	7.8	6.6	45	3.1%	4.2%	6.6	4.8
83	Vince Evans	1977--1995	chi-rai	9511	37	7.1%	3.8%	8.2	6.6	57	2.4%	6%	6.3	3.6
84	John Elway	1983--1998	den	56439	163	5%	2.6%	7.7	6.6	92	2.8%	3.9%	6.3	4.6
85	Drew Bledsoe	1993--2006	nwe-buf-dal	45946	102	5.1%	1.9%	7.4	6.6	99	2.4%	4.2%	5.9	4
86	Jason Campbell	2006--2011	was-rai	14417	32	3.8%	1.7%	7.3	6.6	39	3.3%	2.7%	6.4	5.3
87	Pete Liske	1964--1972	nyj-den-phi	5170	16	7%	2.6%	7.6	6.6	23	2.2%	8.2%	5.9	2.3
88	Jeff George	1990--2001	clt-atl-rai-min-was	28603	48	5.5%	2.7%	7.7	6.6	85	3.2%	2.9%	6.6	5.4
89	Alex Smith	2005--2011	sfo	13038	33	4.4%	1.1%	7	6.6	39	2.9%	4.3%	6	4.1
90	Jim Zorn	1976--1987	sea-gnb-tam	21249	52	4.9%	2.9%	7.8	6.6	68	2.8%	5.4%	6.1	3.7
91	Lynn Dickey	1971--1985	oti-gnb	23914	52	6.5%	4.4%	8.4	6.6	76	3.5%	6.6%	7	4.1
92	Jon Kitna	1997--2011	sea-cin-det-dal	30104	56	5.7%	2%	7.4	6.6	86	2.8%	4.7%	6.3	4.3
93	Eric Hipple	1981--1989	det	11009	30	6.3%	3%	7.8	6.6	36	1.8%	5.5%	6.4	4
94	Bob Griese	1967--1980	mia	26559	108	7.4%	3.9%	8.1	6.5	62	3.5%	6.4%	6.4	3.5
95	Chris Miller	1987--1999	atl-ram-den	19789	37	5.7%	2.4%	7.5	6.5	63	3.6%	4.2%	6.3	4.5
96	Gus Frerotte	1994--2008	was-det-den-cin-min-mia-ram	21666	58	5.1%	2.7%	7.6	6.5	60	2.5%	4.1%	6.2	4.4
97	Matt Hasselbeck	1999--2011	gnb-sea-oti	35891	91	5.1%	2.4%	7.5	6.5	80	3%	3.4%	6.3	4.8
98	Tarvaris Jackson	2006--2011	min-sea	7239	27	4.5%	3.1%	7.8	6.5	23	2.8%	3.4%	5.8	4.3
99	Jeff Blake	1992--2005	nyj-cin-nor-rav-crd-phi-chi	21711	42	5.1%	2.1%	7.4	6.5	77	3.6%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
100	Tony Eason	1983--1990	nwe-nyj	11703	35	5.1%	2.8%	7.7	6.5	31	3.3%	3.4%	6.7	5.2
101	Jim Harbaugh	1987--2000	chi-clt-rav-sdg	27194	78	4.8%	2.1%	7.3	6.5	93	2.3%	3.6%	6.2	4.6
102	Don Majkowski	1987--1996	gnb-clt-det	12906	34	4.8%	2.8%	7.7	6.5	43	2.6%	4.2%	6	4.2
103	Gary Hogeboom	1982--1989	dal-clt-crd	9598	31	5.1%	2.6%	7.5	6.5	28	2.7%	6.1%	6.7	4
104	Joe Theismann	1974--1985	was	26988	95	6%	2.8%	7.6	6.5	59	2.4%	5.1%	6.3	4.1
105	Randall Cunningham	1985--2001	phi-min-dal-rav	32405	98	6.1%	2.6%	7.6	6.5	73	3.1%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
106	Byron Leftwich	2003--2010	jax-atl-pit-tam	10439	30	5%	1.6%	7.1	6.5	31	2.6%	3.5%	6.2	4.7
107	Tony Banks	1996--2005	ram-rav-was-htx	15315	43	5.2%	2.2%	7.4	6.5	52	2%	3.7%	5.9	4.3
108	Bobby Hebert	1985--1996	nor-atl	22331	63	5.2%	3%	7.7	6.5	55	3.5%	5%	6.2	4.1
109	Greg Landry	1968--1984	det-clt-chi	16100	55	6.7%	3.9%	8.1	6.5	65	2.5%	4.7%	6.3	4.2
110	Eli Manning	2004--2011	nyg	30095	77	5.5%	2.2%	7.3	6.4	54	3.7%	4.5%	6.7	4.7
111	Jay Fiedler	1998--2005	min-jax-mia-nyj	12499	50	5%	2.6%	7.5	6.4	29	2.5%	5.9%	6	3.4
112	Stan Humphries	1989--1997	was-sdg	18538	55	4.4%	2.3%	7.4	6.4	39	2.2%	5.1%	5.9	3.7
113	Jim Plunkett	1971--1986	nwe-sfo-rai	28175	85	5.6%	3.4%	7.9	6.4	82	3.2%	7.1%	6.4	3.2
114	Elvis Grbac	1994--2001	sfo-kan-rav	17492	61	4.8%	2.4%	7.4	6.4	39	3.1%	4.4%	6.2	4.3
115	Richard Todd	1976--1985	nyj-nor	21636	51	5.2%	3.6%	7.9	6.4	70	3.2%	7%	6.2	3.1
116	Steve Grogan	1975--1990	nwe	27457	80	6.7%	4.3%	8.2	6.4	71	3.5%	7.2%	6.8	3.6
117	Frank Ryan	1960--1970	ram-cle-was	15833	66	9.3%	4.4%	8.2	6.4	42	4%	6.1%	6.6	3.9
118	Carson Palmer	2004--2011	cin-rai	25659	50	5.9%	2.9%	7.6	6.4	59	3.8%	3.5%	6.9	5.3
119	Shaun Hill	2005--2011	min-sfo-det	6209	18	5.5%	1.8%	7.1	6.4	16	3.2%	2.8%	6.3	5.1
120	Mark Rypien	1988--2001	was-cle-ram-phi-clt	20249	58	5.7%	3.3%	7.7	6.4	47	2.9%	3.6%	6.5	4.9
121	Bubby Brister	1986--2000	pit-phi-nyj-den-min	14801	47	5.7%	2.3%	7.3	6.4	51	1.9%	4.3%	5.9	3.9
122	Kerry Collins	1995--2011	car-nor-nyg-rai-oti-clt	42478	92	4.4%	2.1%	7.2	6.4	113	2.7%	4%	6.1	4.3
123	Steve McNair	1995--2007	oti-rav	33068	100	4.6%	2.1%	7.2	6.4	72	2.6%	3.4%	6.4	4.9
124	Charlie Batch	1998--2011	det-pit	10610	40	5.2%	2.8%	7.5	6.3	37	3.1%	3.4%	6.6	5.1
125	Bill Nelsen	1963--1972	pit-cle	15004	46	6.5%	4.1%	8	6.3	43	3%	7.2%	6.5	3.4
126	Charley Johnson	1961--1975	crd-oti-den	24410	68	7.3%	4.7%	8.3	6.3	70	3%	5.9%	6.3	3.6
127	Steve Bartkowski	1975--1986	atl-ram	24916	60	5.9%	3.1%	7.6	6.3	73	3.5%	5.2%	6.5	4.3
128	Sam Bradford	2010--2011	ram	5676	8	4.1%	1.5%	6.9	6.3	18	1.9%	2.5%	5.6	4.5
129	Gary Danielson	1977--1988	det-cle	14000	42	4.9%	2.9%	7.5	6.3	43	3.5%	5.3%	6.7	4.4
130	Brian Sipe	1974--1983	cle	23896	60	6%	3.2%	7.6	6.3	62	3%	5.4%	6.2	3.8
131	Jay Schroeder	1985--1994	was-rai-cin-crd	20854	71	5.2%	2.7%	7.4	6.3	50	2.7%	5.3%	6.6	4.3
132	Virgil Carter	1968--1976	chi-cin-sdg	5127	21	5.7%	3%	7.5	6.3	24	2.1%	4.7%	5.6	3.5
133	Tommy Kramer	1977--1990	min-nor	25651	64	5.9%	2.8%	7.4	6.3	66	2.9%	5.7%	6.2	3.7
134	Brad Johnson	1994--2008	min-was-tam-dal	30457	102	4.6%	2.1%	7.1	6.2	70	2.9%	3.9%	6.2	4.5
135	Kelly Holcomb	1995--2007	tam-clt-cle-buf-min	6453	9	5.5%	3.4%	7.7	6.2	29	4%	4.5%	6.5	4.6
136	Quincy Carter	2001--2004	dal-nyj	6491	20	4.7%	2.2%	7.1	6.2	18	1.8%	5.3%	5.9	3.5
137	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005--2011	ram-cin-buf	10936	22	6.2%	2.4%	7.2	6.2	34	2.9%	4.5%	5.9	3.9
138	Neil O'Donnell	1991--2003	pit-nyj-cin-oti	23399	72	5%	2%	7	6.2	58	2.5%	2.3%	6.3	5.4
139	James Harris	1969--1979	buf-ram-sdg	8479	44	5.8%	4.2%	8	6.2	34	1.8%	6.6%	6	3.1
140	Brian Griese	1998--2008	den-mia-tam-chi	19440	53	5.2%	2.8%	7.4	6.2	40	3.3%	4.2%	6.6	4.7
141	Terry Bradshaw	1970--1983	pit	31822	125	7%	4.3%	8	6.2	62	3%	7.3%	6.1	2.9
142	Bill Munson	1964--1979	ram-det-sea-sdg-buf	12940	41	6.4%	2.6%	7.2	6.2	58	2.8%	5%	6.1	3.9
143	Steve Tensi	1966--1970	sdg-den	5558	15	8.5%	4.4%	8	6.1	29	3.5%	5.7%	5.8	3.3
144	Jeff Kemp	1981--1991	ram-sfo-sea-phi	6403	28	6.7%	2.9%	7.3	6.1	26	1.9%	5.5%	6.3	3.8
145	Ty Detmer	1993--2001	gnb-phi-sfo-cle-det	6499	18	4.9%	2.5%	7.1	6.1	24	2.7%	4.6%	6.5	4.4
146	Billy Wade	1960--1966	ram-chi	11390	34	6.1%	3.5%	7.6	6.1	33	3.8%	6.3%	6.4	3.7
147	Dave M. Brown	1992--2000	nyg-crd	10304	29	4.1%	2.5%	7.2	6.1	42	1.9%	4.2%	5.8	4
148	Mark Sanchez	2009--2011	nyj	10364	30	5.1%	2%	6.9	6.1	22	2.9%	5%	6.2	4
149	Joe Ferguson	1973--1990	buf-det-tam-clt	30631	83	6.4%	3.1%	7.4	6.1	107	3%	5.8%	6.1	3.5
150	Norm Snead	1961--1976	was-phi-min-nyg-sfo	30797	57	6.9%	4.3%	7.9	6.1	114	3.5%	6.7%	6.7	3.7
151	Dennis Shaw	1970--1975	buf-crd	6347	12	5.9%	5.3%	8.4	6.1	34	2.8%	8.1%	6.5	2.9
152	Vince Ferragamo	1977--1986	ram-buf-gnb	12564	35	7.1%	3.7%	7.6	6.1	42	2.9%	7.1%	6.5	3.4
153	Jake Plummer	1997--2006	crd-den	30593	74	4.7%	2.5%	7.1	6.1	75	2.9%	4.8%	6.4	4.3
154	Tommy Maddox	1992--2005	den-ram-nyg-pit	8754	27	5.9%	3.2%	7.4	6.1	28	2.6%	5.3%	6.1	3.7
155	Daryle Lamonica	1963--1974	buf-rai	21082	104	7.8%	4.6%	8	6.1	37	3%	7.3%	6	2.8
156	Kyle Orton	2005--2011	chi-den-kan	14532	36	4.5%	1.9%	6.8	6.1	35	3%	3.1%	6.4	5
157	Roman Gabriel	1962--1977	ram-phi	29780	87	5.7%	2.6%	7.1	6.1	79	3.2%	4%	5.8	4.1
158	Bob Lee	1969--1980	min-atl-ram	5416	60	5.9%	4.8%	8.1	6.1	24	1.2%	6.2%	5	2.3
159	David Carr	2002--2010	htx-car-nyg-sfo	14433	32	3.4%	2.2%	7	6.1	61	2.7%	3.4%	6.2	4.7
160	Jack Trudeau	1986--1995	clt-nyj-car	10494	25	3.2%	2.4%	7.1	6	43	2.3%	5.2%	5.8	3.5
161	Steve Fuller	1979--1986	kan-chi	7454	33	4%	3.5%	7.5	6	29	1.9%	4%	6.2	4.5
162	Danny White	1976--1988	dal	24243	124	5.8%	4%	7.7	6	59	4%	5.3%	6.7	4.4
163	Archie Manning	1971--1984	nor-oti-min	23911	37	4.4%	3.2%	7.4	6	110	3.1%	5.1%	6.3	4.1
164	Ken Stabler	1970--1984	rai-oti-nor	30579	110	6.6%	4.6%	7.9	6	64	3%	7.3%	6.5	3.3
165	Doug Williams	1978--1989	tam-was	18108	49	5.4%	2.8%	7.2	6	45	3.1%	4.8%	6.5	4.4
166	Joe Pisarcik	1977--1984	nyg-phi	5552	25	4.6%	4.1%	7.8	6	32	2.1%	5.7%	5.7	3.1
167	Jim McMahon	1982--1996	chi-sdg-phi-min-crd-gnb	19260	86	4.5%	3.3%	7.4	6	40	2.6%	3.8%	6.4	4.8
168	Milt Plum	1960--1969	cle-det-ram-nyg	13335	46	6.9%	4.9%	8.1	6	40	3.1%	6%	6.3	3.7
169	Ron Jaworski	1974--1989	ram-phi-mia-kan	29859	89	5.4%	2.9%	7.2	6	79	3.4%	4.8%	6.5	4.4
170	Rodney Peete	1989--2004	det-dal-phi-was-car	16636	55	4.3%	3.4%	7.5	6	48	2.2%	4.3%	6.5	4.6
171	Vinny Testaverde	1987--2007	tam-cle-rav-nyj-dal-nwe-car	47553	102	5.3%	3.1%	7.3	6	137	3.3%	4.5%	6.7	4.7
172	Billy Kilmer	1961--1978	sfo-nor-was	21555	88	6.7%	3.7%	7.5	6	81	3.3%	5.9%	6.1	3.5
173	Tim Couch	1999--2003	cle	11131	22	5.5%	3.2%	7.3	6	40	2.7%	4.3%	6	4.1
174	Erik Kramer	1987--1999	atl-det-chi-sdg	16336	38	4.9%	2.4%	7	6	48	3.4%	4.1%	6.5	4.7
175	Trent Dilfer	1994--2007	tam-rav-sea-cle-sfo	21489	68	5.3%	2.7%	7.1	6	65	2%	5.1%	6	3.7
176	Mike Pagel	1982--1993	clt-cle-ram	9593	22	4.5%	2.6%	7.1	6	53	2.9%	4.9%	6	3.8
177	Kordell Stewart	1995--2005	pit-chi-rav	15490	76	3.5%	2.1%	6.8	5.9	54	2.7%	5.6%	5.5	3
178	Chad Henne	2008--2011	mia	7114	14	3.6%	1.7%	6.6	5.9	20	2.4%	4.6%	6.7	4.7
179	Jim Hart	1966--1984	crd-was	35156	93	5.7%	4%	7.6	5.9	103	2.9%	5.5%	6.2	3.8
180	Vince Young	2006--2011	oti-phi	9102	35	4.5%	3%	7.1	5.9	27	2.2%	4.9%	6.5	4.3
181	Josh McCown	2002--2011	crd-det-rai-car-chi	6998	15	4.2%	1.6%	6.5	5.9	36	2.9%	5.2%	6.2	3.9
182	Mark Malone	1981--1989	pit-sdg-nyj	10733	29	6.3%	3%	7.1	5.8	44	2.3%	5.9%	5.8	3.2
183	Babe Parilli	1960--1969	rai-nwe-nyj	18778	64	7.1%	4.1%	7.5	5.8	47	3.2%	7.5%	5.9	2.5
184	Don Strock	1974--1988	mia-cle	5913	37	7.1%	3.6%	7.3	5.8	30	4.5%	7.3%	6.6	3.3
185	Dick Wood	1962--1966	sdg-nyj-rai-mia	7153	17	7.1%	3.4%	7.2	5.8	28	2.6%	7.3%	5.3	2.1
186	Shaun King	1999--2004	tam-crd	5057	19	5.9%	2.3%	6.7	5.8	16	1.1%	4.1%	5.5	3.7
187	Pat Haden	1976--1981	ram	10024	41	4.4%	2.9%	7	5.8	26	3.1%	7.1%	6.4	3.3
188	Bobby Douglass	1969--1978	chi-sdg-nor-gnb	6493	16	6.2%	3.5%	7.2	5.8	57	2.1%	5.8%	5.1	2.5
189	Cotton Davidson	1960--1968	kan-rai	11451	30	6.5%	4.1%	7.5	5.7	40	2.9%	7.2%	6.3	3.1
190	Steve Bono	1985--1999	min-pit-sfo-kan-gnb-ram-car	10576	49	4.6%	1.8%	6.4	5.7	26	2.5%	3.7%	5.7	4.1
191	Marc Wilson	1980--1990	rai-nwe	14526	39	5.8%	4%	7.4	5.7	42	2.8%	5.8%	6.5	3.9
192	Billy Joe Tolliver	1989--1999	sdg-atl-oti-kan-nor	10760	24	5%	2.6%	6.8	5.7	53	3%	4.1%	6.1	4.4
193	Rick Mirer	1993--2003	sea-chi-nyj-sfo-rai	11969	27	3.9%	2.4%	6.6	5.6	52	1.8%	4.4%	5.5	3.5
194	Steve Ramsey	1970--1976	nor-den	6437	23	5.4%	5.9%	8.1	5.6	28	2.4%	6.5%	6.3	3.4
195	Jacky Lee	1960--1969	oti-den-kan	6191	30	9%	7%	8.5	5.5	29	4%	6.9%	6.6	3.6
196	Hugh Millen	1987--1995	ram-atl-nwe-den	6440	8	2.3%	4.2%	7.4	5.5	30	2.4%	3.6%	6.8	5.2
197	Jim Ninowski	1960--1969	det-cle-was-nor	6953	33	4.3%	4.5%	7.5	5.5	27	2.6%	7.4%	6.2	2.9
198	Dave Wilson	1981--1988	nor	7007	16	4.2%	5.2%	7.8	5.5	37	3.1%	5.5%	6.2	3.8
199	Kyle Boller	2003--2011	rav-ram-rai	8931	30	4.1%	1.7%	6.2	5.5	36	2.6%	4.7%	5.7	3.6
200	Joey Harrington	2002--2007	det-mia-atl	14693	27	4.4%	2.2%	6.4	5.5	55	2.5%	3.8%	5.5	3.9
201	Todd Blackledge	1983--1989	kan-pit	5366	22	5.2%	3.4%	6.9	5.5	22	1.7%	5.2%	5.3	2.9
202	Mike Tomczak	1985--1999	chi-gnb-cle-pit	16963	79	3.8%	3.9%	7.1	5.5	59	3.4%	5.3%	6.6	4.2
203	Mike Livingston	1968--1979	kan	11295	37	4.4%	3.2%	6.8	5.5	52	2.4%	5.7%	6.2	3.7
204	Danny Kanell	1996--2003	nyg-atl-den	5328	14	5.3%	2.5%	6.5	5.5	25	2.2%	4%	4.9	3.2
205	Steve Dils	1980--1988	min-ram-atl	5816	18	3.5%	2.6%	6.5	5.4	29	2.4%	3.6%	5.7	4.1
206	Jack Thompson	1979--1984	cin-tam	5329	15	5.3%	1.8%	6.1	5.4	30	3.5%	6.2%	6.3	3.6
207	Kent Graham	1992--2001	nyg-crd-pit-was	7801	27	4.4%	1.6%	6	5.4	33	1.8%	3.1%	5.7	4.3
208	David Woodley	1980--1985	mia-pit	9203	38	4.4%	3.5%	6.9	5.4	24	3%	7.4%	6.3	3.1
209	Randy Johnson	1966--1976	atl-nyg-was-gnb	8329	14	7.8%	4.4%	7.2	5.4	58	3.2%	7.6%	6.3	3
210	Rex Grossman	2003--2011	chi-htx-was	11015	30	4.7%	3.3%	6.8	5.4	27	2.3%	4.3%	6.2	4.3
211	Jim Miller	1995--2002	pit-chi	6410	20	3.9%	2.9%	6.6	5.3	18	3%	3.2%	5.6	4.3
212	Dan Pastorini	1971--1983	oti-rai-ram-phi	19469	62	4.6%	4.2%	7.1	5.3	81	2.5%	6.1%	5.4	2.7
213	Paul McDonald	1980--1984	cle	5550	12	3.8%	3.4%	6.8	5.3	23	2.8%	5.1%	7	4.7
214	George Blanda	1960--1975	oti-rai	22029	142	8.4%	6%	7.8	5.3	79	3.9%	8%	6.1	2.5
215	Jack Kemp	1960--1969	sdg-buf	22256	71	4.6%	5.2%	7.5	5.2	46	2.2%	7.1%	6.2	3
216	David Whitehurst	1977--1983	gnb	6205	21	6.1%	5.3%	7.4	5.1	30	1.1%	5.4%	5.7	3.3
217	Zeke Bratkowski	1960--1971	chi-ram-gnb	8005	30	4.7%	5.5%	7.5	5.1	45	3.5%	8.9%	6.6	2.7
218	Steve Spurrier	1967--1976	sfo-tam	6878	48	6.4%	4.9%	7.1	5.1	53	2.2%	5.2%	5.4	3.1
219	Joe Kapp	1967--1970	min-nwe	6746	26	6.6%	6.2%	7.7	5.1	26	2.2%	8.1%	5.7	2.1
220	Bob Avellini	1975--1984	chi	7288	30	4.2%	5.9%	7.5	5	36	2.3%	6.8%	5.7	2.7
221	Frank Tripucka	1960--1963	den	7676	13	5.1%	5.9%	7.5	5	29	3.3%	6.7%	5.2	2.3
222	Pete Beathard	1964--1973	kan-oti-crd-ram	8544	40	4.5%	5.3%	7.2	4.9	34	2.5%	7.3%	5.6	2.4
223	Gary Cuozzo	1963--1972	clt-nor-min-crd	7688	47	4.6%	3.9%	6.5	4.9	35	2.9%	5.7%	6	3.5
224	Al Dorow	1960--1962	nyj-buf	5732	14	5.7%	5%	6.9	4.8	18	4.7%	8.5%	5.8	2.1
225	Steve Walsh	1989--1999	dal-nor-chi-ram-tam-clt	8248	27	3.9%	3.2%	6.2	4.8	34	2.4%	4.5%	5.9	3.9
226	Mike Phipps	1970--1981	cle-chi	10806	50	4.5%	3.7%	6.4	4.8	51	1.7%	8.4%	5.3	1.6
227	Scott Brunner	1980--1985	nyg-crd	6843	16	3.7%	3.7%	6.3	4.7	29	3%	5.8%	6.2	3.6
228	Jack Concannon	1964--1975	phi-chi-gnb-det	6270	27	4.6%	4.3%	6.5	4.6	32	2.5%	6.8%	5.1	2.1
229	Mike Taliaferro	1964--1972	nyj-nwe-buf	5241	19	8.2%	4.7%	6.3	4.4	41	2.2%	7.2%	5.1	1.9

[continue reading…]

In 2006, I took a stab at ranking every quarterback in NFL history. Two years later, I acquired more data and made enough improvements to merit publishing an updated and more accurate list of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen. In 2009, I tweaked the formula again, and published a set of career rankings, along with a set of strength of schedule, era and weather adjustments, and finally career rankings which include those adjustments and playoff performances.

If nothing else, that was three years ago, so the series was due for an update. I’ve also acquired more data, enabling me to tweak the formula to better reflect player performance. But let’s start today with an explanation of the methodology I’m using. To rank a group of players, you need to decide which metric you’re ordering the list by. I’ll get to all of the criteria I’m not using in a little bit, but the formula does use each of the following: pass attempts, passing touchdowns, passing yards, interceptions, sacks, sack yards lost, fumbles, fumbles recovered, rush attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Most importantly, the formula is adjusted for era and league.

So where do we begin? We start with plain old yards per attempt. I then incorporate sack data by removing sack yards from the numerator and adding sacks to the denominator ^[1]I have individual sack data for every quarterback since 1969. For seasons before then, I have team sack data going back to 1949. For seasons before 1950, I ignored sacks; for seasons between 1950 … Continue reading. To include touchdowns and pass attempts, I gave a quarterback 20 yards for each passing touchdown and subtracted 45 yards for each interception. This calculation — (Pass Yards + 20 * PTD – 45 * INT – Sack Yards Lost) / (Sacks + Pass Attempts) forms the basis for Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, one of the key metrics I use to evaluate quarterbacks.

For purposes of this study, I did some further tweaking. I’m including rushing touchdowns, because our goal is to measure quarterbacks as players. There’s no reason to separate rushing and passing touchdowns from a value standpoint, so all passing and rushing touchdowns are worth 20 yards and are calculated in the numerator of Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. To be consistent, I also include rushing touchdowns in the denominator of the equation. This won’t change anything for most quarterbacks, but feels right to me. A touchdown is a touchdown.
[continue reading…]