After a ten-year career with the Vikings, Adrian Peterson is now headed to New Orleans where he will get to play with Drew Brees.  It will be the second time Peterson has played with a Hall of Fame quarterback, after Brett Favre’s stint with the team beginning in 2009.

In ’09, the Vikings had a Relative ANY/A of +2.05, easily the best passing game the franchise has produced in the last decade.  In fact, the only other time in the last ten years that Minnesota had an above-average ANY/A was last year, when Peterson rushed for just 72 yards in three games.

Most of his time in Minnesota, though, the team’s passing attack has been below-average — or outright bad.  For example, in 2012, Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards.  That represented 17.9% of his career total, and it came when the Vikings had a Relative ANY/A of -0.94.  Overall Peterson has a weighted average RANY/A — i.e., the Vikings RANY/A in each season of Peterson’s career, weighted by the number of rushing yards Peterson had — for his career of -0.52.  Take a look. [continue reading…]

Adrian Peterson has a torn meniscus, which is expected to keep him out until at least December. Given Peterson’s age — he’s 31, with his half-birthday coming yesterday — it’s reasonable to start thinking about whether the end is near for Peterson.

In his last 8 games (excluding playoffs), he rushed 150 times for 529 yards (3.52) with 5 TDs, one fumble, and 26 first downs. Prior to this stretch, Peterson had averaged 159 carries, 786 yards (4.95), 6.5 TDs, 2.24 fumbles, and 37 first downs. Given his performance in the one playoff game during that stretch (23 for 45 with one fumble), including that would only make the numbers look worse.

I came up with a relatively simple adjusted rushing yards metric to measure running back performance (note that in the formula below, rushing TDs are actually worth 20 yards because all rushing TDs are also rushing first downs):

(rushing yards + rushing first downs * 9 + rushing TDs * 11 – fumbles *30) minus (rush attempts * 5)

This is basically a mix of rush efficiency and rush quantity: we take rushing yards, add some other information, and then provide a penalty for each attempt used. The graph below shows Peterson’s game-by-game results for his career, along with, in black, a trailing-8-game average: [continue reading…]

During the 2013 offseason, I wrote 32 articles under the RPO 2013 tag. In my Predictions in Review series, I review those preview articles with the benefit of hindsight. Previously, I reviewed the AFC West, the NFC West, the AFC South, the NFC South, and the AFC North. Today, the NFC North.

The Detroit Lions will win more games in 2013, June 21, 2013

In 2012, Detroit finished 4-12, but they seemed like an obvious pick to have a rebound season. The Lions went 3-9 in games decided by 8 or fewer points that year, which was the worst mark in the league. Since such a poor record is usually a sign of bad luck rather than bad skill, Detroit wouldn’t need to do much to improve on their 4-win season. The Lions had 6.4 Pythagorean wins, and no team fell as far short of their Pythagorean record in 2012 as Detroit. There was one other reason I highlighted as to why Detroit would win more games in 2013: the Lions recovered only 33% of all fumbles that occurred in Detroit games. As a result, the team recovered 7.6 fewer fumbles than expected.

Of course, none of this was a surprise: Vegas pegged Detroit as an average team entering the season. And even though the Lions did finish 7-9, a three-win improvement wasn’t enough to save Jim Schwartz’ job. After a 3-9 record the year before, the 2013 Lions went 4-6 in games decided by 8 or fewer points, which included losses in the team’s final three games.  Detroit did improve when it came to fumble recoveries, but only slightly: the Lions recovered 42.6% of all fumbles in their games in 2013, which was 3.6 recoveries fewer than expected.

What can we learn: When it comes to records in close games and fumble recovery rates, we should expect regression to the mean.  Last year, the Colts (6-1) and Jets (5-1) had the best records in close games; Andrew Luck has been doing this for two years now, but no such benefit of the doubt should be given to the Jets. Meanwhile, Houston (2-9) and Washington (2-7) had the worst records in close games. All else being equal, we would expect both of those teams to improve on their wins total in 2014 (for the 2-14 Texans, it will take some work not to win more games in 2014; and, of course, such rebound seasons are already baked into the Vegas lines).

As far as fumble recovery rates, well, that’s one area where the Jets are hoping for some regression to the mean.

The 2012 Chicago Bears had the Least Strange Season Ever, August 2, 2013

Here’s what I wrote about the 2012 Bears:

The 2012 Bears played two terrible teams, the Titans and the Jaguars. Those were the two biggest blowouts of the season for Chicago. The Bears had five games against really good teams (Seattle, San Francisco, Houston, and the Packers twice): those were the five biggest losses of the season. Chicago had one other loss, which came on the road against the next best team the Bears played, Minnesota.
…
But the Bears didn’t just have a predictable season. That -0.89 correlation coefficient [between Chicago’s opponent’s rating and location-adjusted margin of victory] is the lowest for any 16-game season in NFL history. In other words, Chicago just had the least strange season of the modern era.

This post was not about predicting Chicago’s 2013 season but analyzing a quirky fact I discovered. The Bears struggled against the best teams in 2012, and that cost Lovie Smith his job. In 2013, Chicago’s season was much more normal; in fact, the Bears had a slightly “stranger” season than the average team.

The Bears did manage to defeat the Bengals and Packers (without Aaron Rodgers), but Chicago still finished below .500 against playoff teams thanks to losses to New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Green Bay (with Aaron Rodgers). After a 2-6 performance against playoff teams in 2012, I suppose a 2-3 record is an improvement. But the irony is that the reason Chicago’s season was less normal in 2013 wasn’t due to better play against the best teams, but because Chicago lost to Minnesota and Washington. In the first year post-Lovie, the Bears missed the playoffs because they lost to two of the worst teams in the league, causing them to miss out on the division title by one half-game. Here’s one stat I bet Lovie Smith knows: from 2005 to 2012, Chicago went 30-0 against teams that finished the season with fewer than six wins. As for which teams had the strangest and least strangest seasons in 2013? Check back tomorrow.

Can Adrian Peterson break Emmitt Smith’s rushing record?, August 3, 2013

What a difference a year makes. Eight months ago, the debate regarding whether Adrian Peterson could break Smith’s record was a legitimate talking point. After a “down” season with 1,266 yards in 14 games, nobody is asking that question anymore. Of course, Peterson never had much of a chance of breaking the record anyway, which was the point of my post. Not only had Smith outgained him Peterson through each of their first six seasons, and not only did Smith enter the league a year earlier than Peterson, but Emmitt Smith was also the leader in career rushing yards after a player’s first six seasons.

Peterson just turned 29 years old. He ranks sixth in career rushing yards through age 28, but Smith has a 1,119 yard advantage when it comes to rushing yards through age 28. Barry Sanders has them both beat, of course, but he retired after his age 30 season. The problem for Peterson? He needs to run for 8,241 yards during his age 29+ seasons to break Smith’s record. The career leader in yards after turning 29 is Smith with 7,121 yards.

What can we learn: Unless Peterson finds the fountain of youth, Smith’s record won’t be challenged for a long, long time.

Witnesses to Greatness: Aaron Rodgers Edition, August 30, 2013

In late August, I wondered if we had taken Rodgers’ dominance for granted. After all, he had a career passer rating of 104.9, the best ever. Then in 2013, he produced a passer rating of … 104.9, the fifth best mark among qualifying passers.

Passer rating stinks, as we all know, but Rodgers is dominant in nearly every metric. If we break passer rating down into its four parts we see:

• Entering 2013, Rodgers was the career leader in completion percentage. Drew Brees now holds a 0.1% edge over Rodgers in this category. Rodgers completed 66.6% of his passes last year, the 5th best mark of 2013.
• Rodgers was the career leader in interception rate entering 2013, and still holds that crown. Believe it or not, his 2.1% interception rate last year ranked only 12th.
• With a 5.9% touchdown rate in 2013 (5th best), he remains the active leader in touchdown percentage. Everyone ahead of him on the career list began their career before 1960.
• Rodgers was the active leader in yards/attempt prior to 2013, and then he had another dominant year by producing an 8.7 average (2nd best). He’s now widened his lead in this metric and should remain the active leader for the foreseeable future.

What can we learn: That Rodgers is the man? Of course, this year we got to see that first-hand. The Packers went 6-3 in Rodgers’ 9 starts and 2-4-1 without him, but remember, he threw just two passes in his Bears start, which the Packers lost. Count that as a non-Rodgers game, and Green Bay went 6-2 with him and 2-5-1 without him. From there, one might infer that he added 3.5 wins to the Packers last year, tied for the 4th most ever from a quarterback relative to his backups.

The only area where Rodgers struggles is with sacks, and it’s worth remembering that all of his other rate stats are slightly inflated because they do not include sacks in the denominator. He’s still the man, of course, but sacks, era adjustments, and the fact that he isn’t done producing top seasons is why he “only” ranked 12th and 14th on these lists.

When I went on the Advanced NFL Stats Podcast in late December, I discussed my use of Z-scores to measure the Seattle pass defense. Host Dave Collins asked me if I was planning on using Z-scores to measure other things, like say, Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season. I told him that would be an interesting idea to look at in the off-season.

Well, it’s the off-season. So here’s what I did.

1) For every season since 1932, I recorded the number of rushing yards for the leading rusher for each team in each league. So for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012, this was 2,097.

2) Next, I calculated the average number of rushing yards of the top rusher of each other team in the NFL. In 2012, the leading rusher on the other 31 teams averaged 974 yards.

3) Then, I calculated the standard deviation of the leading rushers for all teams in the NFL. In 2012, that was 386 yards.

4) Finally, I calculated the Z-score. This is simply the difference between the player’s average and the league average (for Peterson, that’s 1,123), divided by the standard deviation. Peterson’s Z-score was 2.91, good enough for 15th best since 1932. The table below shows the top 250 seasons using this method from 1932 to 2013; it’s fully searchable and sortable, and you can change the number of entries shown by using the dropdown box on the left. [continue reading…]

Two house-keeping notes before we get to today’s post. First, today’s a pretty big day for our friend Neil Paine: he’s getting married. I’ll be there to celebrate with him in Philadelphia, but I know you guys will be with us in spirit. Congrats to Kaitlyn and Neil!

And another set of confetti must be reserve for the seven members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2013: Larry Allen, Cris Carter, Jonathan Ogden, Warren Sapp, Curley Culp, Dave Robinson, and Bill Parcells. Tonight, those men will be inducted into the Hall of Fame, a must-see event for any football fan.

Today’s post focuses on one player already enshrined in Canton and one future Hall of Famer. As a general disclaimer, it’s best not to take too seriously what comes out of the mouths of football players, especially this time of year. That said, Adrian Peterson, part-cyborg, part-Minnesota Vikings running back, recently told Dan Wiederer of the Minneapolis Star Tribute that he thinks he will break Emmitt Smith’s career rushing record:

Q Forget about Eric Dickerson’s record for a minute. Last December, we talked about Emmitt Smith’s record and I told you you were on pace to get there in Week 4 of 2019. You said sooner and promised to come back with a timetable. Emmitt had 18,355 yards. You’re now 9,506 away. We need a week and a year. When do you get there?

A Man. Oh boy. I have to do some calculations. I’ve been in the league seven years. I’m already right around [9,000]. Calculate it out … Let’s think. Maybe get a couple 2,000 yard seasons … I’ve got … Hmmm … 2017.

Q What week in 2017?

A Man. I better go late. I’m already getting too far in front of myself. I’ll say Week 16. There it is. Week 16 in 2017. Whoo. That’s pushing it, huh? But hey, pushing it is the only way to do it. You know it.

Just to break it down for you in full, that gives Peterson 79 games to amass the 9,506 yards he needs to reach Smith. That comes out to a per-game average of 120.3 yards per contest with the assumption that Peterson avoids injury and doesn’t miss a game between now and Week 16 of 2017. Yes, it’s pushing it indeed. But good fun to consider, right?

Let’s talk reality. Peterson has rushed for 8,849 rushing yards in his six-year career, and was 27-years-old last year. The first problem for Peterson is that he was 937 yards behind Smith’s pace before Peterson even entered the league. That’s because Peterson, born in March, entered the league at 22, while Smith, born in May, entered at age 21. Unless you think we should compare the two by seasons and not age — and more on why that’s a bad idea later — we need to give Smith full credit for one extra year. In fact, here’s a chart comparing the two players in career rushing yards through age X. Smith also rushed for slightly more yards from ages 22 to 27 (9223-8849) than Peterson, but when you factor in his age 21 performance, Smith has a big lead on Peterson through age twenty-seven. You might recall I presented a similar chart when comparing Jason Witten to Tony Gonzalez and Jerry Rice.
[continue reading…]

I’ve spent a lot of time this offseason looking at how to grade wide receivers; today I wanted to get some initial thoughts down on paper on running backs.

I’m short on time today, which means a lot of data and not so much theory. One of the more underrated statistics to measure running backs is the number of first downs they produce. I don’t like using Yards per Carry for running backs because that metric is pretty sensitive to outliers. But by using rushing first downs, perhaps we can smooth things out.

We know that the value of a touchdown is about 20 yards, but what is the value of a rushing first down? Being short on time, I took the easy way out. Pro-Football-Reference has produced Expected Points Added for each team’s running game going back to 2000. I decided to run a regression on the team level to best predict rushing EPA based on four rushing statistics. The R^2 was 0.77, but more importantly, here was the best fit formula:

EPA = -16.6 -0.58*Rush + 0.067*Rush_Yd + 1.43*Rush_TD + 1.08*Rush_FD

What interests me is the relationships between the variables. Rushing touchdowns are considered 21.3 times as valuable as rushing yards, which happens to fit in well with our previous assumptions. But more importantly, this tells us that a rushing first down is worth 16.1 rushing yards. That seems pretty high to me, and I reserve the right to adjust this later, but for now, let’s adjust down and say the value of a rushing first down is 15 yards. Now what?
[continue reading…]

At the New York Times Fifth Down Blog this week, I explain my choices for the major awards this season.

Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Generally, the Most Valuable Player award is given to the best quarterback, while the Offensive Player of the Year is usually the player with the most impressive statistics. In the last five years, Tom Brady — first in 2007, and then again in 2010 — is the only player to take home both awards in the same season. Last year, Drew Brees won the award while Aaron Rodgers took home the M.V.P., but running backs Priest Holmes (2002), Jamal Lewis (2003), Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), and Chris Johnson (2009) have all won the award in the last decade. While Calvin Johnson will probably get some support for breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season record for receiving yards, Adrian Peterson has had this award locked up for a month, and finishing the season with 2,097 yards was the icing on the cake.

I don’t think you’ll find too many people arguing about this one. Peterson’s story is outstanding, and it’s hard to argue that he didn’t provide the single most impressive performance by an offensive player this year. Quarterbacks may be more valuable, but it’s hard not to just sit back and admire what Peterson’s done. Johnson’s also had a magnificent season, but he was greatly aided by the Lions also breaking the record for pass attempts in a season.

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Houston Texans

The shine is off the Texans, but there’s no denying that their star lineman has been outstanding this year. If the stars were aligned slightly differently — say, the Texans were streaking towards the end of the year, and Watt had a monster primetime game late — he’d have a legitimate chance at the M.V.P. award. Last month, I talked about how this award was a three-man race with the stars all coming from the 2011 Draft. In that article I also mentioned Geno Atkins as a possible darkhorse, and he’s been ever better since. But Watt has 20.5 sacks and the national reputation as the Sultan of Swatt, so this award is pretty easy to predict.

And well justified. Watt’s production as a 3-4 defensive end is remarkable. He now owns the single-season record for sacks by a player at that position, but he’s far from one dimensional. We know that he is fantastic at tipping passes at the line of scrimmage and is excellent in run support. He’s a complete player in every respect, a dominant force at a position that rarely receives media attention.

I’d select Von Miller as my runner-up and give Atkins the bronze. While Aldon Smith gets more attention because of his lofty sack totals, he’s a one-dimensional player. While he’s outstanding at that one dimension, just being a dominant pass rusher only makes him the fourth best defensive player this year. He also disappeared down the stretch, which not coincidentally began when star defensive end Justin Smith went down with a triceps injury.

Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning missed the entire 2011 season, but as soon as he took the field in 2012 he became the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. A quarterback has won this award each of the last four years — Chad Pennington (2008), Tom Brady (2009), Michael Vick (2010), and Matthew Stafford (2011) — and the trend should continue in 2012. Comeback Player of the Year is a two-man race, and there’s no wrong answer when choosing between Manning and Peterson. If the voters could, surely the majority would pick that Manning and Peterson split the award. If ever an award called for a split, this was it.

Peyton Manning’s neck injury was considered career-threatening this time last year. Many questioned his arm strength in the pre-season and in September, but by the end of the year he was once again the best quarterback in the league. It’s simply splitting hairs picking between Manning and Peterson, who tore two ligaments in his knee just over a year ago and rebounded to rush for 2,000 yards. And let’s at least recognize Jamaal Charles, who in any other year would likely take home the award. The Kansas City running back tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last season, and rebounded to rush for over 1,500 yards in 2012. My guess is that those voters looking for a tiebreaker focus on the fact that Manning missed the entire 2011 season while Peterson ran for 970 yards and 12 touchdowns last year, making Manning more of a “comeback” story.

You can view the full post here.

Yesterday, I noted that Adrian Peterson is averaging nearly two more yards per rush in losses than wins. He’s also averaging a nearly identical number of rushing yards per game in wins and losses.

As you’re about to see, that’s pretty rare. We all know that wins are correlated with rushing yards, so it should come as no surprise that running backs generally gain more rushing yards in wins than in losses.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all players with at least 3,000 rushing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each player:

— His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
— All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
— His number of career wins, and his career rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and rushing yards per game in wins
— His number of career losses, and his career rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and rushing yards per game in losses

The table is sorted by rushing yards per game in wins. Again, for players like Jim Brown or Peterson, they are included but only their stats from 1960 to 2011 are shown. The table only shows the top 50 players, but the search feature works for the entire table, which includes 281 players. In addition, you can click on the drop arrow and change the number of rows shown.

As always, the table is fully sortable. If you click twice on the far right column, you see the career leaders in rushing yards per game in losses. You probably aren’t surprised to see Barry Sanders at the top, but the presence of the running back formerly known as Dom Davis up there is a bit surprising. Steven Jackson is one of the few players who have averaged over 70 rushing yards per game in losses, which jives with the sixth post in Football Perspective history. In addition, Jackson (at least through 2011) and LaDainian Tomlinson form an interesting example of Simpson’s Paradox: Jackson has a higher career rushing yards per game average in both wins (93.9 to 89.9) and losses (71.1 to 63.2), while Tomlinson has the higher career average overall (78.6 to 78.3).

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	Pos	W	Rsh_W	Yd_W	YPC_W	Yd/G_W	L	Rsh_L	Yd_L	YPC_L	Yd/G_L
1	Jim Brown	1960--1965	cle	FB	55	1176	6590	5.6	119.8	25	384	1706	4.44	68.2
2	Terrell Davis	1995--2001	den	RB	58	1415	6867	4.85	118.4	28	444	1880	4.23	67.1
3	Barry Sanders	1989--1998	det	RB	75	1670	8526	5.11	113.7	84	1483	7129	4.81	84.9
4	Eric Dickerson	1983--1993	ram-clt-rai-atl	RB	74	1776	8411	4.74	113.7	78	1368	5572	4.07	71.4
5	O.J. Simpson	1969--1979	buf-sfo	RB	43	950	4818	5.07	112	92	1442	6351	4.4	69
6	Earl Campbell	1978--1985	oti-nor	RB	50	1209	5409	4.47	108.2	70	1113	4418	3.97	63.1
7	Adrian Peterson	2007--2011	min	RB	38	792	4002	5.05	105.3	38	685	3018	4.41	79.4
8	Chris Johnson	2008--2011	oti	RB	36	772	3776	4.89	104.9	28	426	1941	4.56	69.3
9	Clinton Portis	2002--2010	den-was	RB	58	1281	6051	4.72	104.3	59	1019	4086	4.01	69.3
10	Arian Foster	2009--2011	htx	RB	20	428	2077	4.85	103.9	16	282	1305	4.63	81.6
11	Emmitt Smith	1990--2004	dal-crd	RB	135	3036	13198	4.35	97.8	108	1722	6743	3.92	62.4
12	Jamal Lewis	2000--2009	rav-cle	RB	74	1653	7193	4.35	97.2	63	1019	3840	3.77	61
13	Walter Payton	1975--1987	chi	RB	113	2460	10975	4.46	97.1	86	1558	6383	4.1	74.2
14	Larry Johnson	2003--2011	kan-cin-was-mia	RB	40	813	3842	4.73	96.1	43	627	2413	3.85	56.1
15	Edgerrin James	1999--2009	clt-crd-sea	RB	99	2251	9469	4.21	95.6	62	995	3629	3.65	58.5
16	Billy Sims	1980--1984	det	RB	30	603	2861	4.74	95.4	32	554	2378	4.29	74.3
17	Curtis Martin	1995--2005	nwe-nyj	RB	96	2235	9134	4.09	95.1	82	1465	5762	3.93	70.3
18	Frank Gore	2005--2011	sfo	RB	47	939	4422	4.71	94.1	55	743	3366	4.53	61.2
19	Jamaal Charles	2008--2011	kan	RB	16	218	1504	6.9	94	34	290	1605	5.53	47.2
20	Steven Jackson	2004--2011	ram	RB	37	769	3473	4.52	93.9	80	1388	5688	4.1	71.1
21	Shaun Alexander	2000--2008	sea-was	RB	73	1506	6607	4.39	90.5	59	850	3410	4.01	57.8
22	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001--2011	sdg-nyj	RB	104	2048	9346	4.56	89.9	76	1257	4806	3.82	63.2
23	Corey Dillon	1997--2006	cin-nwe	RB	72	1391	6460	4.64	89.7	86	1347	5289	3.93	61.5
24	Rudi Johnson	2001--2008	cin-det	RB	41	901	3672	4.08	89.6	52	629	2363	3.76	45.4
25	Eddie George	1996--2004	oti-dal	RB	90	2094	7863	3.76	87.4	60	977	3354	3.43	55.9
26	Wilbert Montgomery	1977--1985	phi-det	RB	55	1016	4766	4.69	86.7	54	652	2513	3.85	46.5
27	Fred Taylor	1998--2010	jax-nwe	RB	89	1588	7674	4.83	86.2	72	1075	4634	4.31	64.4
28	Jamal Anderson	1994--2001	atl	RB	37	767	3189	4.16	86.2	47	632	2423	3.83	51.6
29	Gale Sayers	1965--1971	chi	RB	29	426	2492	5.85	85.9	36	510	2122	4.16	58.9
30	Barry Foster	1990--1994	pit	RB	35	704	2997	4.26	85.6	23	275	1230	4.47	53.5
31	Curt Warner	1983--1990	sea-ram	RB	55	1133	4704	4.15	85.5	48	636	2389	3.76	49.8
32	Matt Forte	2008--2011	chi	RB	35	661	2985	4.52	85.3	27	395	1398	3.54	51.8
33	Cookie Gilchrist	1962--1967	buf-den-mia	FB	34	625	2871	4.59	84.4	31	372	1381	3.71	44.5
34	William Andrews	1979--1986	atl	RB	43	749	3609	4.82	83.9	42	586	2439	4.16	58.1
35	Marshall Faulk	1994--2005	clt-ram	RB	99	1774	8307	4.68	83.9	89	1227	4574	3.73	51.4
36	John Henry Johnson	1960--1966	pit-oti	FB-HB	32	589	2682	4.55	83.8	38	435	1718	3.95	45.2
37	Tony Dorsett	1977--1988	dal-den	RB	121	2237	10137	4.53	83.8	68	1001	3985	3.98	58.6
38	Jerome Bettis	1993--2005	ram-pit	RB	111	2333	9274	3.98	83.5	93	1345	5062	3.76	54.4
39	Priest Holmes	1997--2007	rav-kan	RB	61	1093	5077	4.65	83.2	49	729	3316	4.55	67.7
40	Ricky Watters	1992--2001	sfo-phi-sea	RB	91	1823	7552	4.14	83	63	963	3720	3.86	59
41	Jim Nance	1965--1973	nwe-nyj	RB	30	571	2455	4.3	81.8	62	680	2585	3.8	41.7
42	Robert Smith	1993--2000	min	RB	63	1039	5146	4.95	81.7	41	517	2262	4.38	55.2
43	George Rogers	1981--1987	nor-was	RB	53	1009	4326	4.29	81.6	45	772	3128	4.05	69.5
44	Jim Taylor	1960--1967	gnb-nor	FB	81	1468	6576	4.48	81.2	31	401	1582	3.95	51
45	Travis Henry	2001--2007	buf-oti-den	RB	36	672	2906	4.32	80.7	52	816	3180	3.9	61.2
46	Willie Parker	2004--2009	pit	RB	55	977	4436	4.54	80.7	27	403	1413	3.51	52.3
47	Ray Rice	2008--2011	rav	RB	45	792	3627	4.58	80.6	22	274	1194	4.36	54.3
48	Maurice Jones-Drew	2006--2011	jax	RB	45	776	3616	4.66	80.4	50	722	3286	4.55	65.7
49	Deuce McAllister	2001--2008	nor	RB	50	913	4017	4.4	80.3	47	543	2240	4.13	47.7
50	Thurman Thomas	1988--2000	buf-mia	RB	130	2373	10378	4.37	79.8	71	843	3138	3.72	44.2
51	Terry Allen	1991--2001	min-was-nwe-nor-rav	RB	69	1303	5504	4.22	79.8	65	890	3263	3.67	50.2
52	Fred Jackson	2007--2011	buf	RB	25	393	1980	5.04	79.2	40	424	1814	4.28	45.4
53	Jonathan Stewart	2008--2011	car	RB	28	414	2217	5.36	79.2	35	314	1295	4.12	37
54	Franco Harris	1972--1984	pit-sea	RB	136	2553	10682	4.18	78.5	55	776	2924	3.77	53.2
55	John Riggins	1971--1985	nyj-was	RB	103	2048	8088	3.95	78.5	79	1119	4260	3.81	53.9
56	Tiki Barber	1997--2006	nyg	RB	80	1277	6269	4.91	78.4	80	1054	4632	4.39	57.9
57	Lydell Mitchell	1972--1980	clt-sdg-ram	RB	58	1103	4472	4.05	77.1	49	645	2280	3.53	46.5
58	Ricky Williams	1999--2011	nor-mia-rav	RB	81	1486	6221	4.19	76.8	70	967	3868	4	55.3
59	Greg Bell	1984--1990	buf-ram-rai	RB	35	596	2641	4.43	75.5	50	684	2676	3.91	53.5
60	Marshawn Lynch	2007--2011	buf-sea	RB	31	592	2337	3.95	75.4	43	568	2338	4.12	54.4
61	Stephen Davis	1996--2006	was-car-ram	RB	72	1234	5422	4.39	75.3	63	807	3101	3.84	49.2
62	LeSean McCoy	2009--2011	phi	RB	28	427	2100	4.92	75	20	225	996	4.43	49.8
63	Domanick Williams	2003--2005	htx	RB	12	226	898	3.97	74.8	28	544	2297	4.22	82
64	Hoyle Granger	1966--1972	oti-nor	RB	27	443	2013	4.54	74.6	38	358	1530	4.27	40.3
65	DeAngelo Williams	2006--2011	car	RB	38	557	2833	5.09	74.6	43	451	2277	5.05	53
66	Rodney Hampton	1990--1997	nyg	RB	56	1048	4122	3.93	73.6	51	826	2969	3.59	58.2
67	Ahman Green	1998--2009	sea-gnb-htx	RB	89	1416	6545	4.62	73.5	63	759	3181	4.19	50.5
68	Earnest Jackson	1983--1988	sdg-phi-pit	RB	31	544	2279	4.19	73.5	44	515	1888	3.67	42.9
69	Lawrence McCutcheon	1973--1981	ram-den-sea-buf	RB	75	1243	5462	4.39	72.8	38	422	1693	4.01	44.6
70	Freeman McNeil	1981--1992	nyj	RB	71	1132	5109	4.51	72	75	782	3364	4.3	44.9
71	Rashard Mendenhall	2008--2011	pit	RB	37	646	2643	4.09	71.4	17	228	954	4.18	56.1
72	Warrick Dunn	1997--2008	tam-atl	RB	98	1618	6996	4.32	71.4	92	1167	4371	3.75	47.5
73	Cedric Benson	2005--2011	chi-cin	RB	50	925	3568	3.86	71.4	45	647	2446	3.78	54.4
74	Natrone Means	1993--1999	sdg-jax	RB	55	1004	3917	3.9	71.2	39	549	1948	3.55	49.9
75	Gary Brown	1991--1999	oti-sdg-nyg	RB	40	619	2841	4.59	71	35	424	1476	3.48	42.2
76	Michael Turner	2004--2011	sdg-atl	RB	76	1130	5391	4.77	70.9	38	376	1457	3.88	38.3
77	Christian Okoye	1987--1992	kan	RB	44	780	3120	4	70.9	35	447	1771	3.96	50.6
78	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1996--2000	mia-cle-clt	RB	33	651	2339	3.59	70.9	31	388	1188	3.06	38.3
79	Garrison Hearst	1993--2004	crd-cin-sfo-den	RB	76	1210	5385	4.45	70.9	55	681	2840	4.17	51.6
80	Joe Morris	1982--1991	nyg-cle	RB	63	1103	4460	4.04	70.8	50	448	1678	3.75	33.6
81	Johnny Johnson	1990--1994	crd-nyj	RB	24	428	1685	3.94	70.2	47	618	2393	3.87	50.9
82	Thomas Jones	2000--2011	crd-tam-chi-nyj-kan	RB	88	1541	6154	3.99	69.9	99	1262	4950	3.92	50
83	Chuck Muncie	1976--1984	nor-sdg	RB	51	817	3554	4.35	69.7	65	854	3664	4.29	56.4
84	Chuck Foreman	1973--1980	min-nwe	RB	77	1324	5318	4.02	69.1	38	426	1409	3.31	37.1
85	Ottis Anderson	1979--1992	crd-nyg	RB	94	1630	6489	3.98	69	80	1033	4217	4.08	52.7
86	Larry Csonka	1968--1979	mia-nyg	RB	91	1387	6223	4.49	68.4	64	691	2587	3.74	40.4
87	Randy McMillan	1981--1986	clt	RB	20	282	1365	4.84	68.3	66	695	2484	3.57	37.6
88	John Brockington	1971--1977	gnb-kan	RB	36	637	2456	3.86	68.2	54	651	2308	3.55	42.7
89	Ryan Grant	2007--2011	gnb	RB	45	670	3052	4.56	67.8	22	313	1291	4.12	58.7
90	Willis McGahee	2004--2011	buf-rav-den	RB	66	1042	4415	4.24	66.9	61	859	3359	3.91	55.1
91	Ron A. Johnson	1969--1975	cle-nyg	RB	37	629	2426	3.86	65.6	41	533	1729	3.24	42.2
92	Joe Cribbs	1980--1988	buf-sfo-mia	RB	55	834	3580	4.29	65.1	49	523	1961	3.75	40
93	Marcus Allen	1982--1997	rai-kan	RB	145	2221	9433	4.25	65.1	91	1068	4157	3.89	45.7
94	Antowain Smith	1997--2005	buf-nwe-oti-nor	RB	75	1248	4872	3.9	65	61	674	2559	3.8	42
95	Larry Brown	1969--1976	was	RB	69	1171	4441	3.79	64.4	35	464	1780	3.84	50.9
96	Kevin Jones	2004--2008	det-chi	RB	22	326	1415	4.34	64.3	41	469	1761	3.75	43
97	Floyd Little	1967--1975	den	RB	45	738	2880	3.9	64	67	820	3187	3.89	47.6
98	Wendell Tyler	1977--1986	ram-sfo	RB	71	931	4510	4.84	63.5	46	550	2443	4.44	53.1
99	Ricky Bell	1977--1982	tam-sdg	RB	25	397	1588	4	63.5	38	462	1591	3.44	41.9
100	Abner Haynes	1960--1967	kan-den-mia-nyj	HB	48	601	3046	5.07	63.5	60	439	1592	3.63	26.5
101	Cadillac Williams	2005--2011	tam-ram	RB	33	505	2094	4.15	63.5	50	568	1993	3.51	39.9
102	Clem Daniels	1960--1968	kan-rai-sfo	RB	51	689	3236	4.7	63.5	49	401	1669	4.16	34.1
103	Pete Johnson	1977--1984	cin-sdg-mia	RB	64	1028	3995	3.89	62.4	50	538	1879	3.49	37.6
104	Leonard Russell	1991--1996	nwe-den-ram-sdg	RB	31	549	1934	3.52	62.4	51	615	2039	3.32	40
105	Bam Morris	1994--1999	pit-rav-chi-kan	RB	39	605	2423	4	62.1	37	444	1636	3.68	44.2
106	Rueben Mayes	1986--1993	nor-sea	RB	36	555	2233	4.02	62	40	314	1262	4.02	31.6
107	Errict Rhett	1994--2000	tam-rav-cle	RB	36	635	2213	3.49	61.5	42	539	1930	3.58	46
108	Anthony Thomas	2001--2007	chi-dal-nor-buf	RB	39	628	2395	3.81	61.4	49	431	1532	3.55	31.3
109	James Wilder	1981--1990	tam-det	RB	32	481	1964	4.08	61.4	86	1123	4160	3.7	48.4
110	Joseph Addai	2006--2011	clt	RB	62	943	3804	4.03	61.4	26	310	1270	4.1	48.8
111	Marion Butts	1989--1995	sdg-nwe-oti	RB	50	766	3067	4	61.3	55	601	2262	3.76	41.1
112	Matt Snell	1964--1972	nyj	RB	42	641	2573	4.01	61.3	35	435	1849	4.25	52.8
113	Delvin Williams	1974--1980	sfo-mia	RB	51	745	3115	4.18	61.1	47	588	2525	4.29	53.7
114	James Brooks	1981--1992	sdg-cin-cle-tam	RB	83	976	5060	5.18	61	86	767	3118	4.07	36.3
115	Kevin Mack	1985--1993	cle	RB	51	753	3109	4.13	61	54	645	2438	3.78	45.1
116	Mike Thomas	1975--1980	was-sdg	RB	52	796	3163	3.97	60.8	28	319	1148	3.6	41
117	Neal Anderson	1986--1993	chi	RB	68	992	4130	4.16	60.7	49	604	2315	3.83	47.2
118	Paul Lowe	1960--1969	sdg-kan	HB	66	767	3998	5.21	60.6	28	228	1075	4.71	38.4
119	DeShaun Foster	2003--2008	car-sfo	RB	47	689	2833	4.11	60.3	33	323	1138	3.52	34.5
120	Napoleon Kaufman	1995--2000	rai	RB	46	512	2760	5.39	60	46	467	2036	4.36	44.3
121	Mike Garrett	1966--1973	kan-sdg	RB	62	823	3712	4.51	59.9	41	477	1703	3.57	41.5
122	Dave Hampton	1969--1976	gnb-atl-phi	RB	36	547	2144	3.92	59.6	55	583	2296	3.94	41.7
123	Leroy Kelly	1964--1973	cle	RB	92	1268	5465	4.31	59.4	49	538	2145	3.99	43.8
124	Sam Cunningham	1973--1982	nwe	RB	53	800	3133	3.92	59.1	52	615	2430	3.95	46.7
125	Duce Staley	1997--2006	phi-pit	RB	66	923	3881	4.2	58.8	52	621	2368	3.81	45.5
126	Charlie Garner	1994--2004	phi-sfo-rai-tam	RB	69	830	4035	4.86	58.5	82	784	3503	4.47	42.7
127	Mike Rozier	1985--1991	oti-atl	RB	45	654	2622	4.01	58.3	52	560	2022	3.61	38.9
128	Brian Westbrook	2002--2010	phi-sfo	RB	80	971	4660	4.8	58.3	49	529	2206	4.17	45
129	Mark van Eeghen	1974--1983	rai-nwe	RB	96	1393	5561	3.99	57.9	41	432	1714	3.97	41.8
130	Julius Jones	2004--2010	dal-sea-nor	RB	48	684	2775	4.06	57.8	48	636	2472	3.89	51.5
131	Marion Barber	2005--2011	dal-chi	RB	59	783	3407	4.35	57.7	44	414	1524	3.68	34.6
132	James Stewart	1995--2002	jax-det	RB	54	828	3108	3.75	57.6	53	681	2895	4.25	54.6
133	Eddie Lee Ivery	1979--1986	gnb	RB	35	407	2014	4.95	57.5	34	244	891	3.65	26.2
134	Ken Willard	1965--1974	sfo-crd	RB	69	1003	3955	3.94	57.3	58	579	1963	3.39	33.8
135	Mike Pruitt	1976--1986	cle-buf-kan	RB	67	944	3840	4.07	57.3	76	921	3605	3.91	47.4
136	Marv Hubbard	1969--1977	rai-det	RB	66	767	3773	4.92	57.2	24	225	867	3.85	36.1
137	Gerald Riggs	1982--1991	atl-was	RB	62	894	3544	3.96	57.2	72	1110	4690	4.23	65.1
138	Ronnie Brown	2005--2011	mia-phi	RB	43	596	2448	4.11	56.9	50	586	2522	4.3	50.4
139	Adrian Murrell	1993--2003	nyj-crd-was-dal	RB	44	637	2494	3.92	56.7	72	765	2862	3.74	39.8
140	Don Perkins	1961--1968	dal	FB-HB	55	758	3107	4.1	56.5	51	754	3079	4.08	60.4
141	Lamar Smith	1994--2003	sea-nor-mia-car	RB	54	811	3043	3.75	56.4	58	565	2030	3.59	35
142	Mike Anderson	2000--2007	den-rav	RB	58	716	3254	4.54	56.1	40	250	976	3.9	24.4
143	J.D. Smith	1960--1966	sfo-dal	FB-HB	33	451	1850	4.1	56.1	36	411	1564	3.81	43.4
144	Ted Brown	1979--1986	min	RB	50	660	2799	4.24	56	56	499	1907	3.82	34.1
145	Dick Bass	1960--1969	ram	FB-HB	47	590	2612	4.43	55.6	59	567	2504	4.42	42.4
146	Sammy Winder	1982--1990	den	RB	80	1195	4443	3.72	55.5	52	423	1356	3.21	26.1
147	Emerson Boozer	1966--1975	nyj	RB	54	774	2984	3.86	55.3	58	518	2092	4.04	36.1
148	Ed Podolak	1969--1977	kan	RB	48	655	2630	4.02	54.8	47	423	1482	3.5	31.5
149	Earnest Byner	1984--1997	cle-was-rav	RB	111	1522	6064	3.98	54.6	102	757	3034	4.01	29.7
150	Brandon Jacobs	2005--2011	nyg	RB	71	862	3869	4.49	54.5	39	336	1441	4.29	36.9
151	Roger Craig	1983--1993	sfo-rai-min	RB	127	1658	6873	4.15	54.1	53	529	2106	3.98	39.7
152	Mel Farr	1967--1973	det	RB	31	377	1677	4.45	54.1	27	292	960	3.29	35.6
153	Bobby Humphrey	1989--1992	den-mia	RB	33	422	1781	4.22	54	22	342	1338	3.91	60.8
154	Jim Otis	1970--1978	nor-kan-crd	RB	57	782	3057	3.91	53.6	51	391	1335	3.41	26.2
155	Chris Warren	1990--2000	sea-dal-phi	RB	70	872	3743	4.29	53.5	91	948	4061	4.28	44.6
156	Ahmad Bradshaw	2007--2011	nyg	RB	52	565	2780	4.92	53.5	27	246	917	3.73	34
157	John Stephens	1988--1993	nwe-gnb-kan	RB	28	410	1477	3.6	52.8	59	535	1963	3.67	33.3
158	Gary W. Anderson	1985--1993	sdg-tam-det	RB	36	420	1899	4.52	52.8	73	449	1510	3.36	20.7
159	Otis Armstrong	1973--1980	den	RB	58	721	3055	4.24	52.7	39	321	1408	4.39	36.1
160	Mercury Morris	1969--1976	mia-sdg	RB	74	737	3896	5.29	52.6	33	161	682	4.24	20.7
161	Kevan Barlow	2001--2006	sfo-nyj	RB	37	451	1946	4.31	52.6	50	583	2074	3.56	41.5
162	Tom Sullivan	1972--1978	phi-cle	RB	26	375	1359	3.62	52.3	51	483	1683	3.48	33
163	Reggie Cobb	1990--1996	tam-gnb-jax-nyj	RB	29	407	1514	3.72	52.2	62	670	2255	3.37	36.4
164	Hewritt Dixon	1963--1970	den-rai	RB-TE	55	677	2861	4.23	52	38	161	553	3.43	14.6
165	Altie Taylor	1969--1976	det-oti	RB	54	718	2794	3.89	51.7	45	417	1406	3.37	31.2
166	Tony Collins	1981--1990	nwe-mia	RB	56	682	2885	4.23	51.5	53	556	1962	3.53	37
167	Sherman Smith	1976--1983	sea-sdg	RB	35	403	1792	4.45	51.2	53	431	1728	4.01	32.6
168	Justin Fargas	2003--2009	rai	FB	25	287	1278	4.45	51.1	65	540	2091	3.87	32.2
169	Edgar Bennett	1992--1999	gnb-chi	RB	64	899	3264	3.63	51	47	379	1289	3.4	27.4
170	Terry Metcalf	1973--1981	crd-was	RB-WR	46	499	2341	4.69	50.9	36	282	1216	4.31	33.8
171	Calvin Hill	1969--1981	dal-was-cle	RB	96	1145	4884	4.27	50.9	54	395	1559	3.95	28.9
172	Michael Vick	2001--2011	atl-phi	QB	65	459	3287	7.16	50.6	51	297	2165	7.29	42.5
173	MacArthur Lane	1968--1978	crd-gnb-kan	RB	52	602	2620	4.35	50.4	67	551	1884	3.42	28.1
174	Larry Kinnebrew	1983--1990	cin-buf	RB	37	458	1863	4.07	50.4	40	328	1287	3.92	32.2
175	Gerry Ellis	1980--1986	gnb	RB	46	479	2314	4.83	50.3	54	350	1499	4.28	27.8
176	Barry Word	1987--1993	nor-kan-min	RB	45	541	2235	4.13	49.7	24	223	859	3.85	35.8
177	Johnny Roland	1966--1973	crd-nyg	RB	40	501	1968	3.93	49.2	47	427	1458	3.41	31
178	Herschel Walker	1986--1997	dal-min-phi-nyg	RB	84	962	4122	4.28	49.1	106	1020	4235	4.15	40
179	Curtis Dickey	1980--1986	clt-cle	RB	30	383	1467	3.83	48.9	51	553	2545	4.6	49.9
180	Keith Lincoln	1961--1968	sdg-buf	FB-HB	47	440	2294	5.21	48.8	38	308	1255	4.07	33
181	Boobie Clark	1973--1980	cin-oti	RB	48	601	2311	3.85	48.1	31	225	837	3.72	27
182	Clarence Davis	1971--1978	rai	RB	73	759	3511	4.63	48.1	25	166	625	3.77	25
183	Michael Pittman	1998--2008	crd-tam-den	RB	69	782	3315	4.24	48	81	665	2499	3.76	30.9
184	Tom Woodeshick	1963--1972	phi-crd	RB	31	346	1483	4.29	47.8	50	456	1922	4.21	38.4
185	Tyrone Wheatley	1995--2004	nyg-rai	RB	67	818	3185	3.89	47.5	61	492	1878	3.82	30.8
186	Charley Tolar	1960--1966	oti	FB	46	576	2173	3.77	47.2	42	354	1183	3.34	28.2
187	Frank Pollard	1980--1988	pit	RB	52	551	2448	4.44	47.1	50	447	1772	3.96	35.4
188	Lorenzo White	1988--1995	oti-cle	RB	54	612	2538	4.15	47	59	526	1968	3.74	33.4
189	Ron Dayne	2000--2007	nyg-den-htx	RB	54	693	2537	3.66	47	42	320	1271	3.97	30.3
190	Walter Abercrombie	1982--1988	pit-phi	RB	45	516	2113	4.09	47	42	369	1423	3.86	33.9
191	Harvey Williams	1991--1998	kan-rai	RB	53	632	2487	3.94	46.9	55	411	1528	3.72	27.8
192	Don Calhoun	1974--1981	buf-nwe	RB	55	577	2532	4.39	46	39	288	1044	3.63	26.8
193	Greg Hill	1994--1999	kan-ram-det	RB	53	579	2439	4.21	46	28	196	795	4.06	28.4
194	Roland Harper	1975--1982	chi	RB	34	398	1554	3.9	45.7	40	364	1501	4.12	37.5
195	Rob Carpenter	1977--1986	oti-nyg-ram	RB	76	904	3449	3.82	45.4	48	354	1246	3.52	26
196	Dexter Bussey	1974--1984	det	RB	57	578	2571	4.45	45.1	76	628	2551	4.06	33.6
197	Wray Carlton	1960--1967	buf	HB-FB	43	472	1935	4.1	45	38	338	1402	4.15	36.9
198	John David Crow	1960--1968	crd-sfo	HB-TE	52	539	2324	4.31	44.7	45	355	1425	4.01	31.7
199	Mike Alstott	1996--2006	tam	RB	89	1002	3948	3.94	44.4	79	469	1481	3.16	18.7
200	Dalton Hilliard	1986--1993	nor	RB	65	762	2864	3.76	44.1	44	383	1364	3.56	31
201	Joe Washington	1977--1985	sdg-clt-was-atl	RB	64	672	2819	4.19	44	62	542	2076	3.83	33.5
202	Wilbur Jackson	1974--1982	sfo-was	RB	36	371	1574	4.24	43.7	60	608	2305	3.79	38.4
203	Nick Pietrosante	1960--1967	det-cle	FB	50	520	2185	4.2	43.7	36	306	1241	4.06	34.5
204	Mario Bates	1994--2000	nor-crd-det	RB	38	440	1644	3.74	43.3	53	416	1439	3.46	27.2
205	Les Josephson	1964--1974	ram	RB	58	552	2501	4.53	43.1	35	200	628	3.14	17.9
206	Reggie Bush	2006--2011	nor-mia	RB	45	429	1938	4.52	43.1	36	349	1438	4.12	39.9
207	Rocky Bleier	1968--1980	pit	RB	85	861	3602	4.18	42.4	36	207	740	3.57	20.6
208	Chris Brown	2003--2009	oti-htx	RB	32	302	1352	4.48	42.3	38	442	1781	4.03	46.9
209	James R. Jones	1983--1992	det-sea	FB-TE	37	429	1555	3.62	42	75	575	2024	3.52	27
210	Charlie H. Smith	1968--1975	rai-sdg	RB	66	721	2751	3.82	41.7	22	173	715	4.13	32.5
211	Don Woods	1974--1980	sdg-sfo	RB	29	338	1205	3.57	41.6	40	425	1882	4.43	47.1
212	Wayne Morris	1976--1984	crd-sdg	RB	47	496	1951	3.93	41.5	64	399	1432	3.59	22.4
213	LaMont Jordan	2001--2009	nyj-rai-nwe-den	RB	53	467	2180	4.67	41.1	60	469	1770	3.77	29.5
214	Ernie Green	1962--1968	cle	HB-FB	64	556	2621	4.71	41	27	134	654	4.88	24.2
215	Doug Kotar	1974--1981	nyg	RB	31	324	1253	3.87	40.4	58	576	2127	3.69	36.7
216	Dorsey Levens	1994--2004	gnb-phi-nyg	RB	104	1028	4182	4.07	40.2	48	380	1475	3.88	30.7
217	Charles White	1980--1988	cle-ram	RB	51	487	2039	4.19	40	51	303	1068	3.52	20.9
218	Craig Heyward	1988--1998	nor-chi-atl-ram-clt	RB	71	647	2837	4.38	40	72	407	1518	3.73	21.1
219	Reuben Droughns	2001--2008	det-den-cle-nyg	RB	50	478	1993	4.17	39.9	47	459	1638	3.57	34.9
220	Johnny Hector	1983--1992	nyj	RB	58	569	2306	4.05	39.8	63	489	2007	4.1	31.9
221	Harold Green	1990--1998	cin-ram-atl	RB	47	442	1866	4.22	39.7	78	720	2554	3.55	32.7
222	Amos Marsh	1961--1967	dal-det	HB-FB	31	264	1222	4.63	39.4	52	412	1655	4.02	31.8
223	Dave Osborn	1965--1976	min-gnb	RB	82	886	3232	3.65	39.4	47	352	1312	3.73	27.9
224	Cid Edwards	1968--1975	crd-sdg-chi	RB	29	235	1143	4.86	39.4	49	418	1670	4	34.1
225	Tom Matte	1961--1972	clt	RB	94	942	3700	3.93	39.4	43	298	1147	3.85	26.7
226	John L. Williams	1986--1995	sea-pit	FB	81	739	3172	4.29	39.2	75	531	1939	3.65	25.9
227	Ladell Betts	2002--2010	was-nor	RB	52	481	2016	4.19	38.8	60	356	1355	3.81	22.6
228	Walt Garrison	1966--1974	dal	RB	87	777	3319	4.27	38.1	37	236	975	4.13	26.4
229	Michael Bennett	2001--2010	min-kan-tam-sdg-rai	RB	47	424	1788	4.22	38	60	440	2008	4.56	33.5
230	Wendell Hayes	1963--1974	dal-den-kan	RB	62	587	2349	4	37.9	58	401	1445	3.6	24.9
231	Willie Ellison	1967--1974	ram-kan	RB	55	490	2062	4.21	37.5	26	248	1016	4.1	39.1
232	Essex Johnson	1968--1976	cin-tam	RB	48	399	1789	4.48	37.3	65	329	1461	4.44	22.5
233	Jim Kiick	1968--1977	mia-den	RB	80	791	2972	3.76	37.2	34	313	1056	3.37	31.1
234	Stump Mitchell	1981--1989	crd	RB	51	439	1890	4.31	37.1	64	514	2573	5.01	40.2
235	John Fuqua	1969--1976	nyg-pit	RB	57	524	2101	4.01	36.9	37	239	1087	4.55	29.4
236	Robert Newhouse	1972--1983	dal	RB	115	1030	4237	4.11	36.8	42	304	1198	3.94	28.5
237	Curtis McClinton	1962--1968	kan	FB-TE	58	517	2134	4.13	36.8	32	242	978	4.04	30.6
238	Leroy Hoard	1990--1999	cle-rav-car-min	RB	76	677	2796	4.13	36.8	70	392	1397	3.56	20
239	Merril Hoge	1987--1994	pit-chi	RB	56	505	2027	4.01	36.2	54	359	1359	3.79	25.2
240	Charlie Harraway	1966--1973	cle-was	RB	62	588	2240	3.81	36.1	34	275	921	3.35	27.1
241	Larry Garron	1960--1968	nwe	HB-FB	52	457	1877	4.11	36.1	37	260	919	3.53	24.8
242	Correll Buckhalter	2001--2010	phi-den	RB	62	490	2222	4.53	35.8	48	222	959	4.32	20
243	Erric Pegram	1991--1997	atl-pit-sdg-nyg	RB	58	564	2067	3.66	35.6	41	327	1450	4.43	35.4
244	Carl Garrett	1969--1977	nwe-chi-nyj-rai	RB	50	435	1752	4.03	35	64	604	2478	4.1	38.7
245	Rickey Young	1975--1983	sdg-min	RB	58	528	2032	3.85	35	73	472	1605	3.4	22
246	Greg Pruitt	1973--1984	cle-rai	RB	88	614	3078	5.01	35	71	577	2517	4.36	35.5
247	Darrin Nelson	1982--1992	min-sdg	RB	73	583	2545	4.37	34.9	76	483	2067	4.28	27.2
248	Lenny Moore	1960--1967	clt	RB-WR	58	467	2011	4.31	34.7	33	247	986	3.99	29.9
249	Donny Anderson	1966--1974	gnb-crd	RB	68	594	2349	3.95	34.5	57	589	2256	3.83	39.6
250	Kenneth Davis	1986--1994	gnb-buf	RB	77	603	2656	4.4	34.5	54	333	1371	4.12	25.4
251	Tommy Mason	1961--1971	min-ram-was	RB	61	544	2102	3.86	34.5	55	424	1855	4.38	33.7
252	Chester Taylor	2002--2011	rav-min-chi-crd	RB	86	726	2953	4.07	34.3	70	470	1932	4.11	27.6
253	Tony Nathan	1979--1987	mia	RB	89	636	3047	4.79	34.2	45	214	950	4.44	21.1
254	Dominic Rhodes	2001--2010	clt-rai	RB	70	578	2387	4.13	34.1	40	334	1306	3.91	32.7
255	Timmy Brown	1960--1968	phi-clt	RB	51	390	1724	4.42	33.8	53	463	2005	4.33	37.8
256	Dick Hoak	1961--1970	pit	RB-WR	43	413	1420	3.44	33	79	638	2307	3.62	29.2
257	Bill Mathis	1960--1969	nyj	FB-HB	66	615	2164	3.52	32.8	60	417	1380	3.31	23
258	Earl Gros	1962--1970	gnb-phi-pit-nor	FB	44	348	1441	4.14	32.8	52	455	1673	3.68	32.2
259	Bill Brown	1961--1974	chi-min	RB	96	893	3138	3.51	32.7	77	709	2461	3.47	32
260	Anthony Johnson	1990--2000	clt-nyj-chi-car-jax	RB	53	482	1712	3.55	32.3	74	371	1389	3.74	18.8
261	Jess Phillips	1968--1977	cin-nor-rai-nwe	RB	62	444	1980	4.46	31.9	61	451	1601	3.55	26.2
262	Terry Kirby	1993--2002	mia-sfo-cle-rai	RB	68	538	2156	4.01	31.7	51	305	1019	3.34	20
263	Ronnie Bull	1962--1971	chi-phi	RB	60	520	1896	3.65	31.6	49	327	1248	3.82	25.5
264	Norm Bulaich	1970--1979	clt-phi-mia	RB	72	552	2275	4.12	31.6	46	300	1195	3.98	26
265	John Cappelletti	1974--1983	ram-sdg	RB	77	676	2410	3.57	31.3	34	183	624	3.41	18.4
266	Sammy Morris	2000--2011	buf-mia-nwe-dal	RB	65	443	1989	4.49	30.6	65	294	1073	3.65	16.5
267	Pete Banaszak	1966--1978	rai	RB	113	867	3453	3.98	30.6	40	185	637	3.44	15.9
268	Cullen Bryant	1973--1987	ram-sea	RB	95	718	2746	3.82	28.9	52	244	965	3.95	18.6
269	Maurice Morris	2002--2011	sea-det	RB	76	535	2169	4.05	28.5	76	374	1600	4.28	21.1
270	Randall Cunningham	1985--2001	phi-min-dal-rav	QB	98	486	2701	5.56	27.6	73	334	2475	7.41	33.9
271	Tony Galbreath	1976--1987	nor-min-nyg	RB	79	504	2124	4.21	26.9	90	544	2021	3.72	22.5
272	Matt Suhey	1980--1989	chi	RB	84	602	2257	3.75	26.9	59	269	845	3.14	14.3
273	Kordell Stewart	1995--2005	pit-chi-rav	QB	76	410	1992	4.86	26.2	54	204	1164	5.71	21.6
274	Steve Young	1985--1999	tam-sfo	QB	125	550	3236	5.88	25.9	60	268	1597	5.96	26.6
275	Steve McNair	1995--2007	oti-rav	QB	100	479	2488	5.19	24.9	72	245	1457	5.95	20.2
276	Donovan McNabb	1999--2011	phi-was-min	QB	106	458	2391	5.22	22.6	74	229	1488	6.5	20.1
277	Kevin Faulk	1999--2011	nwe	RB	125	653	2743	4.2	21.9	54	299	1289	4.31	23.9
278	Preston Pearson	1968--1980	clt-pit-dal	RB	118	607	2380	3.92	20.2	58	377	1331	3.53	22.9
279	Keith Byars	1986--1998	phi-mia-nwe-nyj	FB-TE	119	537	1893	3.53	15.9	79	318	1154	3.63	14.6
280	John Elway	1983--1998	den	QB	163	598	2279	3.81	14	92	266	1553	5.84	16.9
281	Fran Tarkenton	1961--1978	min-nyg	QB	131	390	1710	4.38	13.1	117	292	1934	6.62	16.5

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Adrian Peterson is having an incredible season. He’s likely to hit the 2,000-yard mark on Sunday, and he’s also chasing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. But his splits this year are…interesting.

The table below shows Adrian Peterson’s game logs. These display his traditional statistics, along with his Win Probability added, Expected Points Added, and Success Rate, all courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats; finally I have added the Vikings SRS score for that particularly game (on the season, Minnesota has an SRS of +3.0).

G#	Opp	W/L	Score	Rsh	Yds	YPC	TD	RecYds	WPA	EPA	SR(%)	SRS
1	JAX	W	26-23	17	84	4.9	2	3	0.17	2.5	50	-12.2
2	IND	L	20-23	16	60	3.8	0	20	-0.02	-2.2	40	-5.7
3	SFO	W	24-13	25	86	3.4	0	21	-0.1	-2.4	33.3	18.3
4	DET	W	20-13	21	102	4.9	0	20	0.05	1.8	40	7.5
5	TEN	W	30-7	17	88	5.2	0	15	-0.12	-1.5	33.3	9.3
6	WAS	L	26-38	17	79	4.6	0	50	-0.06	1.6	42.3	-5.9
7	ARI	W	21-14	23	153	6.7	1	6	0.12	0.4	33.3	0.8
8	TAM	L	17-36	15	123	8.2	1	4	-0.07	0.7	43.8	-22.9
9	SEA	L	20-30	17	182	10.7	2	11	0.37	9.5	52.4	5.7
10	DET	W	34-24	27	171	6.3	1	5	0.04	-0.7	25	4.5
11	CHI	L	10-28	18	108	6	0	30	-0.03	0.8	60	-7.8
12	GNB	L	14-23	21	210	10	1	10	0.42	10.4	43.5	1.5
13	CHI	W	21-14	31	154	5	2	16	0.24	2.3	45.5	11.2
14	STL	W	36-22	24	212	8.8	1	0	0.21	6.9	45.8	16.8
15	HOU	W	23-6	25	86	3.4	0	4	-0.1	-5	25.9	24.5
Total				314	1898	6	11	215	1.12	25.1	40.2	3

Peterson has only had two games this season where he averaged fewer than 3.5 yards per carry. Those two games were, without question, the two most impressive wins of the year for the Vikings. Peterson had identical stat lines of 25 carries/86 yards/0 touchdowns in shocking upsets over the 49ers and Texans.
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A double post at the New York Times this week.

Did you know that Alex Smith is seven attempts away from qualifying for eligibility for certain rate-based statistics? If Jim Harbaugh wants to game the system — and this is Harbaugh — he could ptobably that Smith breaks the completion percentage record, set by Drew Brees in 2011.

I also looked at how the playoff field will be very familiar this year:

With two weeks remaining in the N.F.L. regular season, seven teams have clinched a playoff berth and several more can clinch this weekend. Chances are, two weeks from now, the teams in the playoffs will look pretty familiar to N.F.L. fans.

In the A.F.C. in 2011, the Patriots, the Ravens, the Texans and the Broncos won the East, North, South and West Divisions. New England, Houston and Denver have already clinched their divisions in 2012, and even the free-falling Ravens are still the favorites to win the A.F.C. North. That would give the conference four repeat division winners, a first since the league moved to the four-division format in 2002.

Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals were the two wild-card teams. Well, those two teams are currently battling for a wild-card spot, and it would be a surprise if both teams are left out of the playoffs. That would leave one spot in the A.F.C., which is most likely going to go to the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts did not make the playoffs in 2011 — in fact, the team had the worst record in the league — but they did make the playoffs every year from 2002 to 2010.

From 2009 to 2011, half of the conference — the Ravens (6), Jets (6), Patriots (5), Steelers (4), Colts (4), Broncos (2), Texans (2), and Bengals (2) — played in 31 of the A.F.C.’s 33 playoff games, and barring the miraculous (the 6-8 Dolphins are technically still alive), that won’t change this year. The last time a Tom Brady-led team didn’t make the playoffs was in 2002; the last time Peyton Manning’s team missed out on the postseason was in 2001. In the A.F.C., some things never change.

The N.F.C. features only slightly more turnover. Green Bay is going to the playoffs for the fourth straight season while Atlanta will be there for the fourth time in the five-year Matt Ryan/Mike Smith“>Mike Smith era. San Francisco has a good chance of securing a first-round bye for the second year in a row. That leaves just three remaining spots.

Seattle, winner of a playoff game just two years ago, is likely to be back in the postseason as well. The Giants, winners of two of the last five Super Bowls, will make the playoffs if they win their final two games. Chicago and Dallas are no strangers to the playoffs, and one might make it again this year. The real “surprise” teams in the N.F.C. are Minnesota — which did go to the N.F.C. championship game three years ago — and Washington. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were the first two picks in the draft and may power their teams to the playoffs this year. When it comes to the 2012 season, that qualifies as unpredictable.

Your weekly updates on Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson

At this point, it’s getting impossible to write a statistical column without talking about Adrian Peterson“>Adrian Peterson. The Vikings gained just 322 yards against the Rams on Sunday, but Adrian Peterson“>Adrian Peterson ran for 212, accounting for 66 percent of the Minnesota offense. It was the fourth time this season — and in the last two months — that Peterson has rushed for at least 8 yards per carry on 15-plus carries; since 1960, only Barry Sanders (5) and Peterson have accomplished such a feat in a season.

In one of the most incredible stats of this or any year, Peterson has rushed for 1,313 yards in his last eight games, the most by a player in an eight-game stretch since at least 1960. From 1960 to 2011, only four men rushed for 1,200 yards in that span. In 1977, Walter Payton rushed for 1,221 yards over an eight-game stretch; three years later, Earl Campbell rushed for 1,245 yards in half a season. In 2005, Kansas City’s Larry Johnson gained 1,244 rushing yards in the last eight games of the year. Before Peterson, Eric Dickerson held the record for rushing yards in an eight-game stretch; Dickerson rushed for 1,292 yards in the last five games of the ’84 season and the first three games of 1985.

For more on Peterson and Calvin Johnson, along with some interesting week 15 stats, check the full article here.

Grading running backs can be tricky; rushing yards tell much of the story but remain a function of opportunity (itself an indicator of talent). Yards per carry sounds nice but often is more misleading than revealing. Last year at Smartfootball.com I analyzed team rushing games using rush success rate, and I will do the same today. Success rate has been around for awhile – The Hidden Game of Football wrote about it in the late ’80s and Football Outsiders has been tracking it for close to a decade. Everyone has their own unique definition, it seems; here is mine.

• I started with every play from scrimmage where a running back was credited with a carry. I then removed all instances of 3rd or 4th down carries where the back needed to gain more than 5 yards for a first down, since the primary goal in these situations usually isn’t to get the first down. However, on the rare occasions where a running back did convert for the first down, those plays were kept in the data set. This has only happened 20 times this season.
• On 3rd and 4th down, a success is a rush that gains a first down (or touchdown). A failure is every carry that does not result in a first down.
• On 2nd down, a success is achieved when the player gains at least 50% of the yards needed for the first down. This means that 2nd-and-8 runs are failures unless they pick up 4 yards; on 2nd-and-7, the running back must also gain at least 4 yards. A rush for one yard on 2nd-and-3 is a failure, and so on.
• On 1st down, a running back is credited with a successful carry if he gains at least 40% of the yards needed; therefore, four yards are required on 1st-and-10 before the running back is given credit. On 1st and goal from the 5, a two-yard gain would be considered a success.

The league average success rate by these rules is 49.8%. The table below lists all running backs with at least 50 carries, along with their number of rushes (which excludes the excluded carries), number of successful runs, and their success rate. The table is sorted by the far right column, which shows how many successes over 50% of their runs the player had. In the event of a tie, the player with more carries was ranked higher.
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This week at the New York Times, I blush when discussing Andrew Luck, praise the great Calvin Johnson as he tries to surpass Jerry Rice (but with a caveat), and take a look at some other random stats (including some absurd numbers from Adrian Peterson). Trivia: Brandon Marshall has gained over 1,000 yards on both the Bears and Broncos in seasons in which Jay Cutler was his primary quarterback both seasons. Can you name the only two other wide receivers to gain 1,000 yards with multiple teams but the same passer?

It’s not supposed to be this easy.

Sure, Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers followed Joe Montana and Brett Favre and excelled, but the fact that those examples are so memorable shows that they are the exception to the rule.

You’re not supposed to be able to replace a Hall of Fame quarterback with another star. In Indianapolis, the Colts got a taste of what life is often like for a team in the first year after a franchise quarterback’s exit: Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins earned every bit of their combined 2-14 record in 2011. But after the Colts bottomed out, Indianapolis’s fortunes changed dramatically. With the first pick in the 2012 draft, the team selected Stanford’s Andrew Luck, and the Colts appear set to be an annual contender for the next decade. Again.

Luck ranks fourth in passing yards this season, and he has shouldered the load for a Colts team that is below average in rushing, stopping the run and stopping the pass. Luck ranks “only” 19th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt and 14th in Net Yards per Attempt, unimpressive numbers only outside of the context of a rookie quarterback playing for what was the worst team in the N.F.L. a year ago. Luck passes the eye test and at least one advanced metric (before last night’s game, Luck ranked 6th in ESPN’s Total QBR), but part of what’s impressive about him is that even when he isn’t playing well, he remains capable of carrying his team to victory. Luck struggled for much of the game against Detroit on Sunday but still managed to pull out a most improbable victory.

In the first 56 minutes of the game, Luck was 17 for 39 for 279 yards with three interceptions. His team trailed the Lions, 33-21, with under three minutes remaining. At that point, Advanced NFL Stats calculated Indianapolis’s odds of winning at 2 percent.

But Luck led them on two scoring drives, and the Colts became just the seventh team to win a game despite trailing by 12 or more points with so little time remaining since 2000. Two of the other instances involved Peyton Manning with the Colts. In 2003, Manning led the Colts on a marvelous comeback against the Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football.” Six years later, Indianapolis trailed New England, 34-21, with 2:30 remaining. A Colts touchdown was followed by three Patriots plays that gained 8 yards, setting up Bill Belichick’s infamous 4th-and-2 decision.

It will be a long time before Luck could be considered anywhere near Manning’s class in terms of body of work, but his performance against the Lions is now alongside many of Manning’s memories in the annals of great Colts moments. Luck’s game-winning touchdown to Donnie Avery was just the 13th game-winning touchdown pass in the final seconds of a game since 2000.

Statistically, Andrew Luck may not be having the best year, but he has played an enormous part in the Colts’ magical run. At 8-4, the Colts are almost certainly going to make the playoffs; if they do, they will join the 2008 Miami Dolphins and 1982 Patriots on the list of N.F.L. teams to make the playoffs a year after going 2-14 or worse.

Luck will also set a couple of rookie records. With the game-winning drive he led against the Lions, he tied Ben Roethlisberger and Vince Young for the most fourth-quarter game-winning drives (five) by a rookie quarterback. By defeating Detroit and earning his eighth win, he broke a tie with Sam Bradford and now has the most wins among rookie quarterbacks selected first over all since 1950. Luck’s next victory will give him nine wins this season, tying him with Chris Chandler for the franchise record for wins by a rookie quarterback.

Calvin Johnson and the Lions’ Passing Game

Calvin Johnson led the league with 1,681 receiving yards last season and was named a first-team All-Pro by The Associated Press for the first time in his career. His encore performance may be even better.

He has gained a mind-boggling 1,428 receiving yards this season, joining Elroy Hirsch (1,495 yards in 1951) on the short list of N.F.L. players to top the 1,400-yard mark in a team’s first 12 games (in the A.F.L., Charley Hennigan and Lance Alworth each reached that mark once as well).

You can read the full post (and the answer to the trivia question) here.

This week at the New York Times I looked at several interesting statistical developments in both the 2012 season and in week 10.

Even in today’s pass-happy N.F.L., it pays to have one of the best running backs. In one of the bigger surprises of the season, the best of the best is Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson.

He’s a four-time Pro Bowler and a two-time first-team All-Pro selection, but few expected a big year out of Peterson. That’s because last year, on Christmas Eve, Peterson tore the anterior cruciate ligament and medial collateral ligament in his left knee against the Redskins. Such a brutal injury often permanently robs a player of his elite ability; the rule of thumb tells us that it’s not until the second full season after the injury that the player regains his old form, if he ever does.

An injury so late in the 2011 season had most people figuring his 2012 season would be a lost year. Instead, Peterson leads the league in rushing with 1,128 yards and is on pace for a remarkable 1,804. Peterson is the first player since 2009 to rush for 1,100 yards in his team’s first 10 games, and he’s showing no signs of slowing. He has rushed for 629 yards in his last four games, including an impressive 171 rushing yards in a victory over the Lions on Sunday.

Peterson is also averaging 5.75 yards per rush the season, the most among players with at least 100 carries. He joins Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders and Chris Johnson as players with 1,100 or more rushing yards and such a high yards-per-carry average after his team’s first ten games.

Minnesota’s passing game ranks 26th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt and last in the league in yards per completion, a sign of an offense that doesn’t stretch the field through the air. But despite a passing attack that doesn’t scare any defense, thanks to Peterson, Minnesota is 6-4 and a potential playoff team.

The Return of Megatron

For most of the season, N.F.L. fans wondered what was wrong with Calvin Johnson. It wasn’t until the final minutes of Detroit’s loss to the Vikings on Sunday that Matthew Stafford and Johnson connected on a touchdown pass this season (Johnson did catch a touchdown pass from Shaun Hill earlier this year). Well, after a 207-yard game against Minnesota, Johnson is again leading the league in receiving yards. With 974 yards in nine games, Johnson is actually ahead of last year’s pace, when he gained a league-high 1,681 yards. The big difference: in 2011, he caught 16 touchdown passes, but he has only two in 2012.

Continued Dominance in New England

When it comes to the Patriots, mind-boggling offensive numbers are the norm. That means we occasionally ignore just how impressively the New England machine is operating. The Patriots lead the league in points scored, yards gained and first downs. Since 1990, only the 1993 49ers, the 1997 Broncos, the 2001 Rams and the 2007 Patriots have finished first in each metric.

The Patriots are averaging 33.2 points per game, 3.1 points more than the second-place Broncos. At 430.3 yards per game, the Patriots far outpace the rest of the league; Detroit (406.1) is the only other team averaging more than 400 yards per game.

But where New England really stands out is the 259 first downs it has gained. Last year, New Orleans set the N.F.L. record for first downs in a season with 416; the 2011 Patriots also broke the old record (held by the 2003 Kansas City Chiefs) with 399. This year’s team is on pace for an incredible 460 first downs. And the Patriots are on pace to crush the record in a surprising way: New England leads the N.F.L. in rushing first downs with 92, and Stevan Ridley leads all running backs with 54 rushing first downs.

You can read the full article here.

The Maurice Jones-Drew holdout is slightly different than the typical holdouts we see every summer. As a 27-year-old running back, Jones-Drew is seeking his last big contract. But with a new owner and regime in Jacksonville, management is understandably hesitant to give a large contract to a player who already has two years remaining on his deal. The difference between Jones-Drew and most players is that this is his last chance to cash in. If he plays out his contract, even if he plays well the next two seasons, he’s unlikely to get a huge deal in 2014.

Would that be fair? I would hope that some of those writers who argued in favor of reducing rookie contracts would find such a result unjust, as a talented, star player should be rewarded with a big contract. ^[1]This is obviously shtick, but I do find it hypocritical for owners to argue against paying “unproven” players and then to argue against paying aging players who “have little … Continue reading But even if he performs well in 2012 and 2013, by 2014, Jones-Drew would be a 29-year-old runner who had just endured five years of punishment as a workhorse running back. No team would sign him to a large contract at that point, as he could not be expected to continue to produce at such a high level.

When it comes to running backs, it is understood that they must try to maximize their salaries when they are young, as big paydays for older runners are few and far between. But in this situation, some have argued that since this is Jones-Drew’s second contract, he should honor his deal (or, alternatively, that we should be less sympathetic to his cause). In 2009, Jones-Drew signed his second contract, and the argument goes that unlike a rookie contract — where players have almost no leverage — Jones-Drew already had his bite at the apple. But that argument ignores the fact that Jones-Drew’s rookie contract remains part of his current predicament.
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Yesterday, we took a look at the franchise leaders in various passing categories. Let’s do the same for running backs today. The first list shows the leaders in career rushing yards for each franchise; the last column shows the last year that running back played for that franchise:

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