This week at the New York Times, I look at the surprisingly successful AFC North.

At the midway mark of the season, the A.F.C. North is the best division in football. By the end of the year, it may be viewed as one of the strongest divisions in N.F.L. history.

The Cleveland Browns, the Cincinnati Bengals, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are a combined 14-5-1 when not facing one another, which includes a five-game winning streak (no A.F.C. North team has lost an interdivision game since Oct. 19). That equates to a 72.5 winning percentage; the next-best record in interdivision games belongs to the N.F.C. West, but at 15-9 (62.5) that division is a full 10 percentage points behind the A.F.C. North. Since 1970, only five divisions have won more than 70 percent of interdivision games over the course of a full season.

The numbers may overstate the case because the division has benefited from some fortuitous scheduling. Teams in every division play all four teams from two other divisions each year. This year, the A.F.C. North was lucky to land the A.F.C. South and the N.F.C. South, the two worst divisions in football in 2014. Still, all four teams have winning records. In fact, the 2014 A.F.C. North is only the third division in N.F.L. history in which all of its teams posted a winning record after nine weeks, joining the 2008 N.F.C. East and the 1935 N.F.L. West. This sort of success is close to unprecedented, especially for a division that was an afterthought to many only two months ago. So what has been the secret behind the success of each team in the division?

You can read the full article here.

On Monday, I examined the seasons of the teams in the AFC and NFC East. Today I will do the same for the AFC and NFC North, starting in the AFC.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pre-season Projection: 10 wins
Maximum wins: 11 wins (after weeks 2, 5, and 9)
Minimum wins: 8 (after week 16)
Week 1 comment: Sunday Night was one of the best games I’ve seen from Ben Roethlisberger. An elite team that will be favored to win most weeks, although questions remain about the offensive line, the running backs, and the age of the defense.

Pittsburgh started off 6-3 and looked like a contender, but tanked in the second half of the season once Roethlisberger went down. Even when Roethlisberger returned, the offense never quite looked right. Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman, and Rashard Mendenhall were unexciting plodders, which is an improvement over the 25 carries that went to Baron Batch. No Steeler finished the season with more than two rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown both failed to match last year’s lofty numbers. The potential was there, but the results were not in Pittsburgh in 2012.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh’s defense performed well by conventional measures — through week 16 (which is when they were knocked out of the playoff race), they ranked 1st in yards allowed and first downs allowed, and ranked 2nd in net yards per attempt allowed, rushing yards and rushing yards per carry allowed. But the defense wasn’t really up to Steelers standards — through week 16, they ranked 10th in points allowed and, more damningly, had forced more turnovers than just three teams. Pittsburgh allowed 5 4th quarter game-winning drives, which ultimately cost them the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens

Pre-season Projection: 10 wins
Maximum wins: 11 wins (first after week 3, last after week 13)
Minimum wins: 9 wins (after week 15)
Week 1 comment: Great performance on Monday Night, but I have to imagine missing Terrell Suggs is going to hurt this team. He’s too good to simply expect business as usual in Baltimore, and their schedule (AFC West, NFC East, Houston, New England outside the division) is riddled with traps.

The schedule was riddled with traps, but the Ravens rode some late-game success and excellent special teams to a 9-2 record. At that point, I wrote: I still don’t believe in this team, because they aren’t going to have amazing special teams or amazing 4th and 29 conversions every week.

Joe Flacco had a solid but not great year, while Ray Rice continued to prove effective when given the carries. The big issue for Baltimore was defensively. Through 16 weeks, the Ravens ranked 20th in yards allowed, 18th in NY/A, and 24th in first downs allowed. While the Ravens won the North, 8 games out of Terrell Suggs, 6 games of Ray Lewis, and 6 games of Lardarius Webb simply wasn’t enough to give them the defense Ravens fans were used to seeing.
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Last month, I wondered whether previous Justin Blackmons — i.e., the first receiver selected in the draft — lived up to their lofty draft status. There have been 42 drafts since 1970, but only five times has the highest selected wideout gained the most receiving yards among all rookie receivers. The long-term odds were slightly better, though, as nearly a quarter of those highest selected receivers ended up with the most receiving yards in his draft class.

So how do things look at the running back position? The Bills drafted Willis McGahee knowing he would miss his entire rookie season, while Bo Jackson chose to play baseball instead of playing with the Buccaneers. Ki-Jana Carter and Larry Stegent suffered season-ending injuries in the pre-season of their rookie years, making them inapplicable for our purposes, assuming Richardson stays healthy. What about the other 38 running backs who were the first at their position selected in the draft since the merger?

Over 40% of those highest drafted running backs led their class ^[1]Note that this only includes drafted running backs. in rushing yards as a rookie, while exactly half gained at least 75% as many rushing yards as the the most productive rookie running back. That may not be particularly impressive in the abstract, but represents a much better track record than we saw at the wide receiver position. On the other hand, recent history has not been particularly great: in the past 10 years, arguably every top rookie running back outside of Adrian Peterson disappointed, as even Moreno failed to meet the expectations of many.

Year	Running Back	Team	Pick	College	Rush Yds	% of Leader	Top Rookie
2011	Mark Ingram	NOR	28	Alabama	474	0.53	DeMarco Murray
2010	C.J. Spiller	BUF	9	Clemson	283	0.42	Ryan Mathews
2009	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	12	Georgia	947	1.00	Knowshon Moreno
2008	Darren McFadden	OAK	4	Arkansas	499	0.39	Steve Slaton
2007	Adrian Peterson	MIN	7	Oklahoma	1341	1.00	Adrian Peterson
2006	Reggie Bush	NOR	2	USC	565	0.52	Joseph Addai
2005	Ronnie Brown	MIA	2	Auburn	907	0.77	Cadillac Williams
2004	Steven Jackson	STL	24	Oregon St.	673	0.59	Kevin Jones
2003	Willis McGahee	BUF	23	Miami (FL)	--	--	Domanick Williams
2002	William Green	CLE	16	Boston Col.	887	0.59	Clinton Portis
2001	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	5	TCU	1236	1.00	LaDainian Tomlinson
2000	Jamal Lewis	BAL	5	Tennessee	1364	0.92	Mike Anderson
1999	Edgerrin James	IND	4	Miami (FL)	1553	1.00	Edgerrin James
1998	Curtis Enis	CHI	5	Penn St.	497	0.41	Fred Taylor
1997	Warrick Dunn	TAM	12	Florida St.	978	0.87	Corey Dillon
1996	Lawrence Phillips	STL	6	Nebraska	632	0.46	Eddie George
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	CIN	1	Penn St.	--	--	Curtis Martin
1994	Marshall Faulk	IND	2	San Diego St.	1282	1.00	Marshall Faulk
1993	Garrison Hearst	PHO	3	Georgia	264	0.18	Jerome Bettis
1992	Tommy Vardell	CLE	9	Stanford	369	0.65	Vaughn Dunbar
1991	Leonard Russell	NWE	14	Arizona St.	959	1.00	Leonard Russell
1990	Blair Thomas	NYJ	2	Penn St.	620	0.66	Emmitt Smith
1989	Barry Sanders	DET	3	Oklahoma St.	1470	1.00	Barry Sanders
1988	Gaston Green	RAM	14	UCLA	117	0.10	John Stephens
1987	Alonzo Highsmith	HOU	3	Miami (FL)	106	0.16	Christian Okoye
1986	Bo Jackson	TAM	1	Auburn	--	--	Rueben Mayes
1985	George Adams	NYG	19	Kentucky	498	1.00	George Adams
1984	Greg Bell	BUF	26	Notre Dame	1100	1.00	Greg Bell
1983	Eric Dickerson	RAM	2	SMU	1808	1.00	Eric Dickerson
1982	Darrin Nelson	MIN	7	Stanford	136	0.20	Marcus Allen
1981	George Rogers	NOR	1	South Carolina	1674	1.00	George Rogers
1980	Billy Sims	DET	1	Oklahoma	1303	1.00	Billy Sims
1979	Ottis Anderson	STL	8	Miami (FL)	1605	1.00	Ottis Anderson
1978	Earl Campbell	HOU	1	Texas	1450	1.00	Earl Campbell
1977	Ricky Bell	TAM	1	USC	436	0.43	Tony Dorsett
1976	Chuck Muncie	NOR	3	California	659	1.00	Chuck Muncie
1975	Walter Payton	CHI	4	Jackson St.	679	0.74	Mike Thomas
1974	Bo Matthews	SDG	2	Colorado	328	0.28	Don Woods
1973	Otis Armstrong	DEN	9	Purdue	90	0.09	Boobie Clark
1972	Franco Harris	PIT	13	Penn St.	1055	1.00	Franco Harris
1971	John Riggins	NYJ	6	Kansas	769	0.70	John Brockington
1970	Larry Stegent	STL	8	Texas A&M	--	--	Duane Thomas

Richardson is the favorite to be the most productive rookie running back, although “the field” appears to be a more enticing proposition. But Cleveland drafted Richardson for what he can do for the next five or ten years, which will ultimately be much more significant than how he performs in 2012. Even if the highest drafted running back is unlikely to lead his draft class in rushing yards as a rookie, is he more likely (than the field) to lead his draft class in career rushing yards?
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In the first post at Football Perspective, I noted that A.J. Green became the first player in over 25 years to be the first wide receiver drafted and then lead all rookies in receiving yards during his rookie season. It’s a good thing that Green has a knack for bucking trends, because he’s going to want to do it again.

Ten years ago, Doug Drinen wondered how often the top rookie wide receiver ended up having the best career among his classmates. At the time, he was discussing Chris Chambers — yes, he was the top rookie in 2001 — and was surprised by the results.

The research showed that for the period between 1981 and 2000, the top rookie receiver almost never ended up as the top wideout from his class. Doug was correct in speculating that because of that track record, Chambers was a bad bet to end up being the best receiver among all 2001 rookies, despite Chambers having had the best rookie year.

Here’s a look at the top rookie receivers from 2001 based on receiving yards, along with three other notable wideouts:

As it turned out, Chris Chambers, Rod Gardner, Koren Robinson and Snoop Minnis weren’t as successful as Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson/Ochocinco, Steve Smith and Santana Moss.

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