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Adjusted Interceptions: Career Totals

by on August 26, 2022
in Defense, Statistics

Yesterday, I did a fairly simple analysis to compare interception numbers across eras. Because I covered the methodology in the previous post, I am not going to regurgitate that information here. Instead, I want to just get right into it. When I did the career adjusted sacks post, I went step-by-step in the same manner I did in the single season article. This time, however, I think we can skip past all that and look at the end results.

Career Adjusted Interception Totals

The first table is sorted by the last column, but you can re-sort by any header you like. Using Rod Woodson as an example, here’s how you read the table: Woodson intercepted 71 passes against 8401 attempts at a 0.85% rate. His passing environment modifier (Mod) is worth 142%, and the softened version of that (Soft) is worth 121%. Taking the average of his actual interceptions and interceptions per 500 attempts in order to account for volume gives us the Mid adjustment, which is 98% in Woodson’s case. Applying my homebrewed league strength multiplier (LSM) gives him a 99% adjustment.

If we multiply Woodson’s 71 interceptions by Mod, Mid, and LSM, we get a whopping 97.7 adjusted interceptions for his career. If we dampen it by multiplying those 71 picks by Soft, Mid, and LSM, Woodson’s career adjusted interceptions come to 83.2, good for the highest mark ever. [1]For the ModTot, that’s 71 * 142% * 98% * 99%. For the SoftTot, that’s 71 * 121% * 98% * 99%.

Using the actual historical average as a baseline appears to be a bit much, going by the numbers it produces. I think having Charles Woodson, Ed Reed, Rod Woodson, a serial rapist, and Aeneas Williams as the top five (by ModTot) is fine; giving Chuck credit for 101 interceptions is a bit much for me. Moving the all time leader in picks, Paul Krause, down to ninth also feels a tad harsh as well. Sure, I think he tends to be overrated by people who look at one number and base their entire evaluation on that single data point, but I also think having such a commanding lead over any modern player should count for something. For this reason, I think the SoftTot column produces results with greater face validity.

The last column gives us a top ten of seven Hall of Famers, one senior candidate who will likely get the necessary votes soon, possibly the best safety of the 1990s who would be in Canton already if he played for Dallas or San Francisco, and a a vile monster who was good at picking off passes and not really much else.

Let’s Be Reasonable

The wacky looking career totals form the table above convinced me to try using a new baseline. I decided to use the last 40 years of football, which incorporates nearly the entire period of open offense football. [2]I refer to football in the wake of the Mel Blount Rule and rules enabling offensive linemen to extend their hands to block in 1978, as well as the subsequent offensive revolution heralded by the … Continue reading When I looked at that timeframe, the historical baseline moved from 4.80% to 3.16%. because of that, I have dubbed the new baseline the Austin Percentage. Having a lower baseline means that fewer players will see their totals go up, and only the most recent players will their totals go up significantly.

The table below is sorted by the last column, but you can sort by any of the headings. Using Krause as our example, read the table thus: Krause picked off 81 passes against 5623 attempts at a 1.44% rate. His volume adjustment is worth 117%, and his league strength multiplier is worth 88%. His Austin figure is 60%, which comes to 80% when the effect is halved. [3]Recall from the first table that his Mod and Soft were 91% and 96% because of the highest baseline. If we apply the Mid, LSM, and Austin modifiers to Krause’s 81 actual interceptions, his total plummets to 49.9, which ranks tenth on the career list. If we replace the Austin modifier with the softened version, Krause’s number falls to just 66.4, which allows him to maintain his place atop the interception mountain. [4]To arrive at the numbers in the Austin column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 60%. To find the results for the HalfTot column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 80%. These figures are rounded and will produce … Continue reading

If you earnestly believe older players relied too much on archaic passing to glean their big interception totals, the Austin column might be for you. Before we find Krause at number ten, only Rod Woodson and Eugene Robinson had any action prior to 1990. Recent ball hawk Richard Sherman is in a fourteen-way tie for 104th place in career interceptions, with 37. However, when Austin 3.16 comes around, Sherman jumps to 18th, which does feel more appropriate for one of the premier turnover artists of recent vintage. In fact, his 8.4 interception boost is the highest number of any player, just beating out the bonuses of 8.3 and 8.1 for fellow playmakers Xavien Howard and Marcus Peters. Wandering mercenary Aqib Talib finds himself pretty high on the career list when looking at the Austin total.

While some recent players saw modest gains, older players saw their totals fall off a cliff with the lower baseline. Emlen Tunnell, a real life hero who picked off 79 passes—but did most of his damage in the 1950s—suffers a reduction of 43.6 from his total. He goes from ranking second on the official list to 54th on the Austin list. That seems a little steep, even to a noted old school player hater like I am. Night Train Lane and Johnny Robinson join Krause and Tunnell as the only other players to lose at least 30 from their totals. Turn-of-the-century players like Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain see almost no change in their career numbers.

I think the last column makes the most sense at first glace. Tunnell, Robinson, and Jim Norton all lose more than 20 from their real numbers, and no one gains more than 3.6. Krause loses 14.6, but because Tunnell lost 22 and his lead over anyone else was huge, he remains in first place. Rod Woodson loses 4.7 from his total, while Charles Woodson and Ed Reed each lose about half a pick, resulting in the three ending pretty clustered, and all close to Krause at the top. While Tunnell has a large reduction, his actual number of interceptions was so high to begin with that he still ranks sixth here.

I am often interested to see where Ken Riley and Dave Brown will fall, relative to one another. Riley has 65 interceptions to Brown’s 62. The Austin adjustment puts Brown ahead, while my preferred adjustment leaves the Bengals legend with a 54.6 to 53.4 lead. Riley never made a Pro Bowl, but he earned first team all pro honors once and second team honors twice. Brown made one Pro Bowl and one all pro second team. Given how close together these two are in terms of actual production, the gap in their public perception is pretty interesting to me. When you consider the fact that Brown was his team’s top corner, while Lemar Parrish was the top corner in Cincinnati until 1977, the issue is further muddled.

I will leave further commentary to the FP faithful, if any remain.

 

References

References
↑1 For the ModTot, that’s 71 * 142% * 98% * 99%. For the SoftTot, that’s 71 * 121% * 98% * 99%.
↑2 I refer to football in the wake of the Mel Blount Rule and rules enabling offensive linemen to extend their hands to block in 1978, as well as the subsequent offensive revolution heralded by the likes of Bill Walsh, Don Coryell, and Joe Gibbs.
↑3 Recall from the first table that his Mod and Soft were 91% and 96% because of the highest baseline.
↑4 To arrive at the numbers in the Austin column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 60%. To find the results for the HalfTot column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 80%. These figures are rounded and will produce slightly different results if you copy and paste to work with them yourself.

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Adjusted Interceptions: Single Seasons

by on August 25, 2022
in Defense

I recently reopened a discussion about sacks Chase started years ago. Today, I’m going to rehash another topic our prolific host has covered time and again (and again): adjusting interceptions for era. Unlike sacks, which have official number dating back to 1982 and unofficial ones published as far back as 1960, interceptions have official records as far back as 1940. This gives us much more data to work with, but it also provides similar challenges that Sid Luckman presents when adjusting passing stats: the game is so different now from what it was in the 1940s that trying to compare the numbers side by side ends up killing newer players when adjusting for dropbacks or hurting older players when adjusting for passing environment. But getting it 85% right is better than not doing anything at all, so I’m going to do it anyway. As I did with the sack posts, I will go through my progressions of adjustments one step at a time, so that you can see how we arrived at the final numbers.

Normalizing for Volume

It stands to reason that intercepting ten passes against 300 attempts is more impressive than intercepting the same number of passes against 600 attempts—at least, as far as getting interceptions is at all impressive when divorced from other aspects of play. Because of this, it is necessary to put players on a more even playing field. Using Bill Dudley‘s frankly ridiculous 1946 season as an example, follow the table like so: Dudley, playing in 1946 for the Steelers, appeared in 11 games and snagged 10 interceptions against 162 opponent pass attempts. That comes to an outlandish 6.17% interception rate. If we adjust for volume by giving all players credit for their interception rate multiplied by 500 attempts, Dudley’s 1946 comes to 30.9 picks per 500 passes. If you look at that number and mutter “well, that’s just too high,” then we are in agreement. Thus, I took the average of their actual picks and their attempts per 500 passes to find the number in the last column, which I have labeled Mid. Using that adjustment instead, Dudley’s season was only good for 20.4 volume-adjusted interceptions.

If we stop here, it’s easy to see the glaring issue: the much higher interception rate in the days of yore leaves us with a list that doesn’t feature it’s first player after the year 2000 until the 210th spot. Even using the mid number, Ty Law‘s 2005 doesn’t show up until 115. Clearly, we need to keep going.

Incorporating League Environment

The next step is to incorporate the league average interception rate for each season. To do this, I used all seasons from 1940-2021 and found the three-year rolling average, with each given year in the middle (So 2017 would include the average of seasons 2016-2018). Then, I found three numbers: the cumulative interception rate from 1940-2021 (4.02%), the average of averages for each year in the sample (5.18%), and the median rate from the sample (5.21%). Then I took the average of those three numbers (4.80%) and used it as the historical baseline.

The next two tables use this step. The first of the two displays adjusted interception rates, while the latter of the two displays adjusted totals. Using Xavien Howard‘s 2020 as an example, read the table thus: Howard played 16 games and had 10 interceptions against 545 attempts, good for a 1.83% pick rate. The rolling average for 2020 is 2.28%, so Howard gets a boost of 210.5% (4.80/2.28) in the column labeled Mod. If you think that’s too higher, I included a softened version, which is the average of Mod and 100% (in this case, the Soft number is 155.2%). When using the Mod figure to adjust his interception rate, Howard gets credit for a rate of 3.86% (that’s 1.83% * 210.5%), the highest number on record. Using the softened version gives him 2.85% (1.83% * 155.2%), which ranks 18th.

This one is interesting to me, because the modified version seems too skewed in favor of modern players, while the softened version doesn’t feel harsh enough toward the old guys. We’ll go to the table below to see what that looks like in terms of interceptions rather just the more abstract percentages.

Incorporating League Environment (Again)

Let’s use J.C. Jackson as our example this time. In 2020, he played 16 games and hauled in 9 interceptions. We know his adjusted rates from the table above. Using the full modifier on his actual interceptions gives him 18.9 adjusted interceptions, while using the soft modifier gives him 14.0. Jackson is the rare current player who actually gets a boost from using per 500 attempt numbers, albeit a small one. Using the full modifier multiplied by his interceptions per 500 attempts (9.1 from the first table) leaves him with 19.2, while using the softened version gives him credit for 14.1. Note, I did not use the Mid figure from the first table, because too many columns makes these things unwieldy, in my opinion. Instead, I saved that for the last table.

Looking at the Mod and Soft multipliers applied to interceptions, without accounting for volume, just leaves us with a huge list of recent players. While I believe modern defenders to be both superior and in a more difficult position because of rules and schemes, I don’t think it makes sense to give them this much of a boost. Especially when the point of this whole exercise is not to measure the quality of a player, but rather use a variety of factors to more appropriately compare his interception totals to those of other defenders. One need only look at the career of Darrelle Revis to know that having a relatively low turnover total doesn’t preclude a player from greatness. And Ken Riley‘s career makes it evident that a player can find himself quite high on the career pick list without having been the best cornerback on his own team during his prime.

Putting it All Together

Below is the final table for today. Here, I have tried to strike a balance between adjusting for volume and adjusting for environment, but I kept battling with myself over whether I preferred full rate modifiers or soft ones. So I decided to just present both and let the reader decide. Using the controversial 2021 Trevon Diggs season, read the table thus: in 16 games, Diggs had 11 interceptions against 612 passes, good for a 1.80% rate. His Mid volume adjustment (from the first table) is worth 91%. That, combined with his 211.2%environmental modifier (Mod from the second table) gives him 21.1 adjusted interceptions in the Mod-Mid column. Using the Soft modifier instead gives him 15.5.

Instead of using the 4.80% historical baseline that I found, Chase most recently used 3.5%. Doing so doesn’t do much to the orders of the lists any, but it does have a significant impact on the totals by degree. So Diggs would still rank first in the Mod-Mid column and second in the Soft-Mid column, but he would have something closer to 15.4 and 12.7 as his adjusted interception total. While these numbers are more or less abstract and don’t really matter, I do think having the lower baseline Chase used produces results that look more realistic, even if the 3.5% figure was chosen at random (and I don’t know if it was or was not chosen at random). In fact, when I looked at career totals, I actually preferred to use an even lower baseline of 3.16%, which represents the last 40 years of football and covers basically the entire period of post-1978 rules changes that help permanently drop leaguewide interception rates below five percent.

When looking at the results above, the last column seems to produce the most even mix of old and new players. Oddly, however, I may prefer the Mod-Mid column when looking at career totals, which we will see later.  [1]How much later, I simply cannot say. Regardless, I think accounting for both volume and passing environment, in some form or fashion, helps put the numbers into more proper context. Even if it does take a little shine off my man Dick Lane.

 

References

References
↑1 How much later, I simply cannot say.

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Adjusted Sacks: Career Totals

by on August 19, 2022
in Defense

Recently, I reintroduced the concept of adjusted sack numbers for individual player seasons. [1]I say recently because Chase published an article about the idea as early as 2015, and I recall reading articles that touched on the issue at the old PFR blog. The logical next step, to me, is to take a look at those stats in the context of full careers. I liked the idea of presenting career data in terms of per-500 dropback metrics and cumulative totals. On top of the methodologies we discussed in the last post, I also wanted to introduce two new ways to look at the information. I hope it proves interesting, and I apologize in advance for my spectacular inability to come up with better acronyms, initialisms, and abbreviations.

Normalized for Volume

The table below contains every player in history with at least 30 sacks (or 30 in the last column) since 1960. Read it thus: Deacon Jones played in 191 games and recorded 173.5 sacks against 5891 dropbacks. His 2.95% career sack rate means he was good for 14.7 sacks per 500 dropbacks over the course of his entire career. If we take his sacks per 500 dropbacks totals from each season and add them together, we get 203.3, which is easily the highest mark ever.

As you probably expected, older players and T.J. Watt dominate the S/500 column. Guys like Robustelli and Marchetti played against offensive linemen hamstrung by rules, while Watt is a quarterback killer still in his prime. When we look in the last column, we can see how much the small differences in each season add up to a big gap between Bruce Smith and Reggie White. Three members of the Purple People Eaters appear in the top eight, though one guy took an additional sixty-ish games to get there.

Also, is it possible that the Hall of Fame actually doesn’t like pass rushers as much as people think?

League Environment Incorporated

In order to account for the easier environment for getting into the backfield long ago, we will use the modified and soft-modified conversions we used in the last article. The table contains any pass rusher who recorded at least 30 actual sacks or reached 30 in either of the last two columns. Read it thus: Alan Page played 218 games and recorded 148.5 sacks against 6348 dropbacks, which is good for a rate of 2.34%. His modifier is worth 91.5%, which becomes 95.7% when softened. For his career, he had 10.7 modified sacks per 500 dropbacks and 11.2 soft-modified sacks per 500 dropbacks. If we take the cumulative totals of those two stats, Page had 160.7 and 169.9, respectively.

When we look at the Soft500 column, we get a fun mix of characters. The Deacon is on top, followed by the younger Watt. Then we get another legend followed by another guy with scant games under his belt. Marchetti and Robustelli have a significant chunk of their careers omitted from this study because Turney and Webster haven’t finished their work on pre-1960 sacks, but the fact that they rank so highly on a per season basis despite not having years prior to their mid-thirties demonstrates how apt they were at pass rushing.

Alex Karras probably would have been in the Hall of Fame earlier were it not for his gambling controversy, while Claude Humphrey likely belongs on more lists of greatest pass rushers. Watch his tape, and you’ll see a guy whose athleticism stands out in the same way that Len Ford‘s did earlier or Julius Peppers‘s did later. Coy Bacon ranks tenth in the SoftTot column. He is a mere 4.3 below Jim Marshall, despite appearing in over one hundred fewer games.

Concentration Accounted For

Now it’s time to take pass rushing depth into consideration by applying a league concentration adjustment to each player. Here’s how to read the table, using Reggie White as an example: White’s career concentration adjustment is worth 1.036, meaning he gets a 3.6% boost to his stats from previous steps. For comparison’s sake, he had 198 actual sacks. When applying the concentration adjustment to his sacks per 500 dropbacks, his number comes to 11.7. If we include the modifier for league sack environment, that number jumps to 12.1. Softening that modifier brings his number down a bit, this time to 11.9. When we add all of White’s single-season figures in concentration-adjusted sacks per 500 dropbacks, his career total is 177.7. The cumulative number for the modified version of that comes to 181.1, and the softened iteration totals 179.4.

The thing that stands out to me is the placement of John Abraham. He is tied for eighteenth on the official sack list but jumps to thirteenth when sorting by the penultimate column. Abraham made five Pro Bowls and three all pro first teams, which doesn’t scream “Hall of Fame,” but he had eight seasons with double digit sacks and two more seasons in which he missed games but still notched 9.5 sacks. In 2003, he played in just seven games but managed 6 sacks. Had he stayed healthy in 2003-04, he likely would have had five consecutive seasons with 10+ sacks after becoming a starter. Abraham was a few injuries away from retiring with eleven seasons in the double digits. I remember watching footage of the highly celebrated Robustelli and thinking his postseasons honors indicate a Reggie White level of play but the tape suggested he was more akin to John Abraham. The per-season numbers in this table support that notion. If the second best Bengals cornerback of the 1970s can make it to Canton, maybe Abraham has a chance at a senior nod one day. [2]Note, I wouldn’t put him in, but with the bar being set at the Sprinkle and Riley level, I don’t think I know what a HOFer is anymore.

Dominance Exalted

The table below displays what I think is a more accurate representation of what we think about when we think about great pass rushers. Instead of career compilation, we’re looking at career value over a given baseline. [3]Refer to the previous article for the methodology. Read the table thus: Jack Youngblood played in 202 games and recorded 151.5 sacks. For his career, his sack rate was 1.04% better than the league baseline, giving him 5.2 extra sacks per 500 dropbacks. When summing his individual seasons in that metric, he was worth 74.3 sacks above baseline. If we apply the concentration adjustment to his career numbers, he was worth 69.8 added sacks. When we get rid of all seasons that are below average and look only at what might be considered peak production, Youngblood’s value jumps to 72.4.

This table is a numeric representation of why Jim Marshall can rank 23rd in career sacks and not make it to the Hall of Fame. For his career, he was barely above the baseline, meaning he was ultimately worth about 19 extra sacks. Compare that with Bacon, who shares a ranking on the unofficial career list. Because his sack performances were more dominant, his career sack value is 54.7, which puts him in elite company. Cedrick Hardman, Simeon Rice, Harvey Martin, and Jack Gregory are a few other players who stand out as dominant sack artists who may be underrated now.

Something New

I figured I would throw in a few new concepts just to round out the discussion. I have long been a fan of Pro Football Reference’s passing index scores, and I have created my own versions of them for several different stats. This time, I applied the methodology to defensive sack rates. Also, because the results of the single season and career numbers still seem to favor older players, despite the entire purpose of this exercise being to translate across eras, I wanted to incorporate the league strength modifiers I have been working on for the past several years. [4]These take into account things like integration vs segregation, positional specialization, league attractiveness vs other sports, pay, the existence of rival leagues, U.S. population of NFL-aged men, … Continue reading People who lament that football today isn’t like the football idealized by marvelous NFL Films creations may not like this.

The below chart shows every player with at least 3000 dropbacks faced. Using Jared Allen as an example, read the table thus: Allen had 134 sacks against 6426 dropbacks for a 2.09% sack rate. His sack rate was nearly a full standard deviation above the median, giving him a sack rate+ of 113.5. [5]Highest on record, min 3000 dropbacks faced. T.J. Watt will take over the top spot soon. He currently has a rate+ of 117.2. Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons are also higher than Allen, though they are … Continue reading His concentration-adjusted career sack value, after accounting for league strength, is 61.1. When we look at only his positive value seasons, it raises slightly to 61.7.

I believe the top ten, as ranked by the last column, is a great list of stellar sacksmiths. A decent era range shows up, and there doesn’t seem to be too much skew toward older or newer players. However, this may be because it more closely lines up with my subjective view of these players, and we love to have our priors confirmed.

The lowest ranked players on the list are linebackers who had a decent number of sacks but played in coverage too often to reasonably compete with edge rushers, as well as interior linemen who played a ton of snaps but weren’t primarily pass rushers.

What stands out to you?

 

References

References
↑1 I say recently because Chase published an article about the idea as early as 2015, and I recall reading articles that touched on the issue at the old PFR blog.
↑2 Note, I wouldn’t put him in, but with the bar being set at the Sprinkle and Riley level, I don’t think I know what a HOFer is anymore.
↑3 Refer to the previous article for the methodology.
↑4 These take into account things like integration vs segregation, positional specialization, league attractiveness vs other sports, pay, the existence of rival leagues, U.S. population of NFL-aged men, number of players playing high school and college football in preceding years, etc.
↑5 Highest on record, min 3000 dropbacks faced. T.J. Watt will take over the top spot soon. He currently has a rate+ of 117.2. Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons are also higher than Allen, though they are much further from reaching the 3000 dropback threshold.

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Adjusted Sacks: Single Seasons

by on August 16, 2022
in Defense

In 2015 (and, again, in 2018), Chase published his methodology for comparing individual sack seasons across eras. At the time, we had only the official numbers available, so the comparisons didn’t capture any performances prior to 1982. Now, thanks to the work of dedicated researchers John Turney and Nick Webster, we have reliable sack data dating back to 1960 (with more likely to come in the future). [1]Thanks to Webster, specifically, we also have the numbers for Len Ford‘s outlandish 1951 campaign. Although I don’t have the same context for that season, I will be including it with … Continue reading With all the new information available, I was excited to pick up where Chase left off and include the additional 22 years of preceding data. Because of the new seasons included, the results of this post will differ from Chase’s, even among players included in the original article, so this should offer some new insight beyond adding names to the list.

Normalizing for Volume

The first step is to account for the fact that teams throw the ball more frequently today than they did in the sixties, eighties, or even the aughts. To do this, I am going to do what Chase did, because it seemed like a reasonable first step to me. That first step is to find the number of dropbacks a player’s team faced that season and calculate the percentage of those plays on which he sacked the quarterback. [2]There is a case to be made that one should only include dropbacks in games which players participated. So Jared Allen would only count as having played 14 games in 2007, rather than 16 games. … Continue reading Next, we multiply that number by 500 in order to put pass rushers on a more even playing field.

Take Cleveland Elam‘s 1977, for example. He dropped opposing quarterbacks 17.5 times while the 49ers faced just 312 dropbacks. That gives him an incredible 5.61% sack rate, which translates to 28.0 sacks against 500 dropbacks. [continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 Thanks to Webster, specifically, we also have the numbers for Len Ford‘s outlandish 1951 campaign. Although I don’t have the same context for that season, I will be including it with those from 1960 onward.
↑2 There is a case to be made that one should only include dropbacks in games which players participated. So Jared Allen would only count as having played 14 games in 2007, rather than 16 games. However, I think availability is important and don’t wish to further bolster a player for missing time during the season.

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From the Archives: 2019 GridFe Hall of Fame Defense

by on July 15, 2022
in HOF

The following article originally appeared on the now-defunct GridFe website but never found its way to Football Perspective after Adam Steele and I decided to shut things down in our little corner of the internet. For the sake of having a reference, I have decided to republish in Chase’s space. Below is the article as originally published following the 2018 season.

Last year, I unveiled the GridFe Hall of Fame, a group effort of football diehards dissatisfied with (and unencumbered by the logistical limitations of) the Pro Football Hall of Fame. [1]The GrideFe Hall of Fame Committee comprises research guru Topher Doll, standard human Bryan Frye, actual genius Adam Harstad, enigmatic fount of knowledge Raider Joe, potentate of … Continue reading This Hall of Fame has very few rules outside of a minimum five “yea” votes out of a possible six for enshrinement. We have no waiting period for induction. If it’s obvious that Tom Brady belongs, he’s in; if we need to take some time to put Julio Jones‘s stats into perspective, we will. We don’t have contribution silos. I didn’t vote for John Madden solely as a coach but as a coach, influential broadcaster, and video game pioneer. [continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 The GrideFe Hall of Fame Committee comprises research guru Topher Doll, standard human Bryan Frye, actual genius Adam Harstad, enigmatic fount of knowledge Raider Joe, potentate of prognostication Thomas McDermott, and quarterback aficionado Adam Steele.

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From the Archives: 2019 GridFe Hall of Fame Offense

by on July 14, 2022
in HOF

The following article originally appeared on the now-defunct GridFe website but never found its way to Football Perspective after Adam Steele and I decided to shut things down in our little corner of the internet. For the sake of having a reference, I have decided to republish in Chase’s space. Below is the article as originally published following the 2018 season.

The GridFe Hall of Fame 2019 class features no quarterbacks and is heavy on running backs, tight ends, and linemen. [1]The only quarterback who received votes got just two of them. Meanwhile, several linemen just missed the cut. Unlike the defensive hall of fame class, the offense features no active players. In fact, the most recent player last played in 1988. Perhaps that’s indicative of more clearly worthy defensive players in today’s league, or maybe it simply means more voters have taken a wait-and-see approach with regards to positions that have seen significant stat inflation in recent years. [2]An alternative theory is that we voted for all the worthy offensive players in the inaugural class. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, and Antonio … Continue reading It’s outlandish to believe that with greater talent than ever before, only one hall of fame caliber wide receiver has entered the league in the last twenty years. Is it possible we have exercised too much caution with modern players? I don’t know, but it’s certainly possible. Below are eight inductees for this year’s class. Read and determine for yourself. [3]Others receiving votes: Len Dawson, Curtis Martin, Ollie Matson*, Bobby Mitchell*, Elroy Hirsch, Pete Pihos*, Rayfield Wright*, Jim Tyrer*, Gary Zimmerman*, Joe DeLamielleure*

GridFe Hall of Fame Offense

Marion Motley (1946-1955)
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
5 First Team All Pros (4 AAFC/1 NFL), 1 Pro Bowl, 6 Title Wins, 3 Title Losses, 1 GridFe World Award (AAFC), 1 GridFe Sweetness Award, 1 GridFe Supersonic Award, 7 GridFe Motley Awards (4 AAFC/3 NFL) [4]The Pro Bowl didn’t exist when Motley played in the AAFC, but he was worthy of the honor all four years. [continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 The only quarterback who received votes got just two of them. Meanwhile, several linemen just missed the cut.
↑2 An alternative theory is that we voted for all the worthy offensive players in the inaugural class. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates are still playing. Rob Gronkowski and Joe Thomas were active when we began voting. I suspect with another season to evaluate their careers from a historical perspective, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown will garner more attention. If people are voting for Len Dawson, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger may also join the discussion. Perhaps Marshal Yanda will receive the recognition from us he deserved from national media.
↑3 Others receiving votes: Len Dawson, Curtis Martin, Ollie Matson*, Bobby Mitchell*, Elroy Hirsch, Pete Pihos*, Rayfield Wright*, Jim Tyrer*, Gary Zimmerman*, Joe DeLamielleure*
↑4 The Pro Bowl didn’t exist when Motley played in the AAFC, but he was worthy of the honor all four years.

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Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Value: Full Careers

by on September 4, 2021
in G.O.A.T., Quarterbacks, Statistics

We’ve come to the end of the line. After several posts ranking and reranking, thinking and rethinking, quarterbacks with Total Adjusted Yards per Play and its descendants, this is the one I imagine most readers really want to see. Today, we are looking at measured performance in the regular season and playoffs combined. This is where guys like Y.A. Tittle, who feasted in the regular season but nearly always faltered in the postseason, see their positions fall down the list. Where passers like Jim Plunkett, whose regular season performances left much to be desired but went full tilt bozo in the playoffs, rise up the ranks. As far as the NFL record book is concerned, the playoffs don’t count toward career stats or win-loss totals. While I understand not rewarding players for getting to participate in more games, I can see the argument that it is equally unfair not to reward them for playing well enough to continue the march toward a championship. In order to balance those ideas, I have only counted playoff performances that measured above average by TAY/P.

A quick word on the numbers I’m using. You can find more detail in previous articles in the series, but this should be sufficient to introduce the rookies and refresh the veterans. [continue reading…]

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Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Value: Full Seasons

by on September 3, 2021
in Quarterbacks, Statistics

We’re back at it with quarterback rankings based on Total Adjusted Yards per Play and its abundant offspring. This time, we’re getting into combined regular and postseason stats for single seasons. For the purposes of this article, I will refer to this as a full season. None of the stats are new and have been explained in what I hope is sufficient detail in previous posts. [1]Here are links for the base methodology, the introduction of Z Value and positive value, the methodology and refinement of championship leverage, and a brief explanation of retroactive leverage. Fun … Continue reading As fun as it would be to call this “the greatest quarterback seasons in history!” or something like that, I seem to have a deeply held grudge against page views and web traffic, because I can’t get behind calling it anything of the sort. This is one measure of how much quarterbacks produced in a given full season. I believe it is the best measure when trying to compare across eras in which superior metrics don’t exist, but that’s about as far as I can go on the hubris tip. Anyway, these are my numbers. I hope you like them. [continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 Here are links for the base methodology, the introduction of Z Value and positive value, the methodology and refinement of championship leverage, and a brief explanation of retroactive leverage. Fun fact: with the addition of a game to the schedule, championship leverage will increase for the 2021 season!

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Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Value: Postseason Careers

by on September 2, 2021
in Quarterbacks, Statistics

We have already looked at postseason performance in single games and single seasons. Today, we’re finally having a go at full playoff careers. All of the metrics I am using today have been explained, in great detail, in the previous four posts, so I am not going to belabor the point here. I will, however, remind the reader that Total Adjusted Yards per Play, and its many variants, is just one approach to measuring quarterback performance. It doesn’t account for weather, and it is not adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses (not yet, at least). Moreover, these numbers are based on box score stats and do not include more granular information, like time on the clock, field position, and yards to go on a set of downs. A four yard pass on 1st and 10 is much less valuable than a four yard pass on 3rd and 3, but TAY/P treats them equally. This is by design, because the goal of this metric is to do the best possible job of comparing quarterbacks across eras. I can’t do that with DVOA or EPA/P, because the play by play data just don’t go back far enough. However, when I looked into the correlations of TAY/P with more granular metrics, the r value tended to land between .93 and .94 (even for ESPN’s QBR, with its often wacky use of win probability). This suggests, to me, that most of these issues smooth themselves over in the long run. [continue reading…]

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Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Value: Single Postseasons

by on September 1, 2021
in Quarterbacks, Statistics

Yesterday, we looked at playoff performance in individual playoff games, as measured by Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and its copious derivatives). Today, I’m taking the next logical step and looking at performance over a full postseason in any given year. In other words, instead of examining who produced the most in the Super Bowl last year, I am determining who produced the most over the entire 2020 playoffs. By that, I mean who produced the most as measured by this particular set of numbers. They happen to be my preferred numbers for comparing across eras, but your mileage may vary.

For the uninitiated, here is a brief rundown of the metrics used:

Total Adjusted Yards per Play is like ANY/A with rushing included. It is (pass yards -sack yards + rush yards + 20*pass TDs + 20*rush TDs – 45*interceptions – 25*fumbles) / (passes + sacks + rushes). This version of TAY/P doesn’t include first downs, since I only have reliable first down data back to 1991 and want to make the playing field as level as possible when comparing back to 1936. [continue reading…]

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Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Postseason Game Value

by on August 31, 2021
in Quarterbacks, Statistics

Before the 2021 season starts, I figured I would try to add a little more to the Total Adjusted Yardage information I have been posting. Today, I want to discuss the same stats as before, as well as a few additions, for every postseason game in which a quarterback had at least five action plays. Not all information is complete, as sacks are unavailable prior to 1948. However, I’m working with what I have and not looking back. [1]If you want to look at all the raw data, including quarterbacks with just one plays, you can check out this Google sheet. Because this is the postseason, it is inherently worth more with regard to both earning a championship and establishing one’s legacy. Therefore, I am going to include championship leverage in the discussion. I don’t have much to say, so let’s get to the numbers. [continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 If you want to look at all the raw data, including quarterbacks with just one plays, you can check out this Google sheet.

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Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Career Value

by on August 24, 2021
in Quarterbacks, Statistics

Yesterday, we looked at the best (and worst) regular season performances, as measured by Total Adjusted Yards per Play and its many derivatives. Today, it’s time to look into total career values. Keep in mind, these figures don’t include the postseason, where many legends cemented or defined their legacies. We will get to that later, I promise.

Because I apparently hate driving traffic to the site, I will not title this anything to do with the greatest or best quarterback. Instead, I want to be honest about the fact that the results below are simply one measurement of career performance and are not meant to be definitive. I do believe it is the best approach I have seen when it comes to using numbers to compare quarterbacks across eras, but it isn’t perfect. When you see “Johnny Unitas,” what you are really seeing is Unitas, throwing to Raymond Berry, John Mackey, Lenny Moore, Jim Mutscheller, and Jimmy Orr, handing off to Alan Ameche, and standing behind Jim Parker and Bob Vogel, while glancing over at Weeb Ewbank and Don Shula standing on the sidelines. When you see “John Elway,” what you are really seeing is Elway throwing to a ragtag group of receivers, playing behind a ho hum offensive line, and under the tutelage of an unimaginative head coach during his prime, before getting basically the opposite of that late in his career. The average reader at Football Perspective has a good grip on both history and stat and should have little trouble contextualizing the numbers presented today. [continue reading…]

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Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Value: Single Seasons

by on August 23, 2021
in Quarterbacks, Statistics

It has been a while since I published anything specifically relating to my niche homebrewed metric, Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). It has been longer, still, since Chase has posted his latest entry into the corpus of his legendary QBGOAT series. I figured I would kill one bird and dizzy another with one stone. This post is specifically about TAY/P and its derivatives. It is not a treatise on the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Instead, it is a look at how several quarterbacks have fared in a few different variations of a single measurement since 1932. If you want to view it as a GOAT list, you are free to do so, though I would not encourage it. I believe statistics should be used to support your argument rather than serve as the entirety of your argument.

I am not under the delusion that this is the premier metric to use when evaluating quarterbacks. I prefer a holistic approach that includes everything from simple box score stats to convoluted algorithms and subjective grades. I consider EPA/P, DVOA, and Total QBR to be superior measurements. [1]CPOE is a useful stat when trying to get a better idea, from the numbers, who was more or less accurate than their actual completion rate may have indicated. ANY/A is good but only looks at … Continue reading The only problem is that they don’t cover a large enough portion of NFL history to make comparisons. Thus, I continue to use TAY/P because it uses simple box score numbers to create a metric that can compare quarterbacks dating back as far as we have box scores. [2]With some caveats. We have full stats dating back to 1967. Prior to that, we don’t have full sack and sack yardage information for the AFL. We have data for sack yardage lost in the NFL dating … Continue reading [continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 CPOE is a useful stat when trying to get a better idea, from the numbers, who was more or less accurate than their actual completion rate may have indicated. ANY/A is good but only looks at dropbacks. Success rate is usually instructive when looking at how a quarterback leads an offense, but it is defined differently by different entities and, thus, can be difficult to discuss without first defining the term. I prefer to count plays with positive EPA successful, rather than the 40/70/100 division or some variation thereof.
↑2 With some caveats. We have full stats dating back to 1967. Prior to that, we don’t have full sack and sack yardage information for the AFL. We have data for sack yardage lost in the NFL dating back to 1947, but we don’t know the number of sacks themselves prior to 1963. We have precious little sack information for the AAFC. In the NFL, we don’t have fumble data earlier than 1945, and we don’t have fumbles or for the AAFC at all. Prior to 1936, NFL teams didn’t even play the same number of games, which makes serious analysis tricky. And before 1932, we only have touchdowns. This all ignores the fact that yards are awarded a whole numbers, even when only half yards are gained. A touchdown from the one inch line still counts as a one yard run, by rule. On one play, that is a small deal, but over the course of a long career, it can add up (or take away). Though it mostly evens out.

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Automatic Awards

by on August 17, 2021
in Awards

Named in honor of Automatic Otto Graham, the Automatic Award goes to the most valuable player in the league each season. Given the value of passing for most of NFL (and AFL and AAFC) history, this award will almost always go to a quarterback. He touches the live ball more than any other player, has by far the largest impact on the outcome of his team’s success, and is arguably the most important position in team sports. [1]I don’t know much about other sports, but I have been told goalies play a pretty outsized role in winning hockey games. In basketball, I don’t know if there is necessarily a single … Continue reading By and large, I am going to give preference to players on successful teams, with the possibly flawed idea that a player may have been valuable on a bad team, but it’s hard to call him most valuable if he had a losing squad. I try my best to separate a player’s contributions from those of his teammates, but I still attempt to recognize historically dominant seasons that come on teams with other great players. After all, it is difficult to disentangle a quarterback from his receivers and protectors, a running back from his blockers, or any player from his coaches, and I don’t want to take away too much credit from a guy just because of his perceived advantages.

I have chosen most valuable players for every season back to 1920. However, given the paucity of recorded stats, as well as the nigh nonexistence of film to study, I decided to publish only the results dating back to 1946. At that point, we have nearly the same box score numbers that we have today, and there is enough game footage available to paint a fairly reliable picture of a player’s performance. Obviously, with less information the further back we go, I have less confidence in my selections with each additional year we travel into the past. At the same time, because I know it is more difficult to come to conclusions about those seasons, I’m less torn up about picking players in a tossup scenario. Today, with abundant information at my fingertips, I find myself going back and forth over two or three players almost every year, talking myself in and out of their respective qualifications to the point that words start to lose meaning and I shrink into myself like Demeter of myth.
[continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 I don’t know much about other sports, but I have been told goalies play a pretty outsized role in winning hockey games. In basketball, I don’t know if there is necessarily a single position that is the most important, but it definitely appears to be the team sport in which the best player can have the largest impact.

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The Grand List Chart

by on July 12, 2021
in History

After about 215000 words and nearly 400 pages, the Grand List is finally over. [1]That’s 391 pages in Times New Roman, 12 font in Word. The list also contained at least six trillion typos, but hopefully no factual inaccuracies. Before I get to updating the list to include the 2020 season, I want to consolidate some of the information from the project.

By design, there were five special teamers and six return men on the team. After that, I went with the players I felt were the best, irrespective of position. Without separating premodern from modern players, and counting two way players by their offensive positions, here is a positional breakdown of the list:

  • 90 quarterbacks
  • 118 running backs
  • 10 blocking fullbacks
  • 122 wide receivers or ends
  • 41 tight ends
  • 77 offensive tackles
  • 72 offensive guards
  • 44 offensive centers
  • 75 defensive ends
  • 83 defensive tackles
  • 111 linebackers
  • 65 cornerbacks
  • 62 safeties
  • 10 kickers
  • 9 punters

Given the number of players at each position that occupy the field at the same time, which has fluctuated as the league has evolved, I don’t think the numbers are too far off from whatever the ideal is. The relative lack of defensive players is explained by the fact that the premodern players played on both side of the ball. So when I count Baugh as a quarterback, I am ignoring his work at safety to avoid double counting, though he obviously played on defense for much of his career. In theory, there should be about the same number of tackles and guards, and that number should be about twice as high as centers. However, it looks like centers are a little high, so I may have been too generous there, or not generous enough with guards and tackles. When looking at the older players, I remember having the impression that, for one reason or another, centers tended to be better on defense. That may explain some of the high number. I think I am a little low on defensive backs, and I will try to further examine my own thoughts on that as I continue to update the list as I gather new information.

When I update the list to include the 2020 seasons, as well as additional study I have done on older players in the time since I began writing the list, I have considered removing special teams players and giving them their own special section. It always felt weird putting even the best kickers on par with a Hall of Fame level defensive end or wide receiver. Hekker and Tucker were right between Tingelhoff and Dorsett on the original list, and I still feel conflicted about that. I believe they are the best ever at their roles, but they barely step foot on the field. I would much rather create a separate section just for guys like them, Hester, and Tasker so I can make room on the top 1000 for players like Joel Bitonio, Joe Thuney, Tre’Davious White, or Tyrann Mathieu. I’d love to hear the opinion of the Football Perspective readership, whom I consider one of the smartest I’ve had the pleasure of encountering. [continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 That’s 391 pages in Times New Roman, 12 font in Word. The list also contained at least six trillion typos, but hopefully no factual inaccuracies.

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The Grand List, part 25

by on July 9, 2021
in History

We finally made it. This marks the last installment of the Grand List, a countdown of the top one thousand players in pro football history (who spent at least some time in the NFL). I began publishing this list in March 2020, right after the NFL’s centennial season, and had the aspirational goal of publishing the full list before the 2020 season started. By the beginning of the season, I had 399 players remaining. I focused on the 2020 season live rather than trying to work on the list while the season was still ongoing, and I picked back up in March 2021. In order to be fair to active players named in the first 600 players, I made the choice to ignore the 2020 season entirely when moving forward with the list. That means I had to pretend dominant performances from Mahomes, Rodgers and Donald didn’t happen, or that Brady didn’t win another title with a new team and scheme. When I am done with the list, I will make an update to include not only the new information form the 2020 season, but also more film study I hadn’t yet conducted for older seasons. [1]Players who had great 2020 seasons will see their status rise—sometimes significantly. There are some older players for whom I had only seen a handful of full games, and adding to the body of … Continue reading

My typical caveats apply here:

  • These are based solely on my opinion. I’d like to think that it is a pretty well-reasoned and informed opinion, but it is an opinion nonetheless. As my late grandfather, who got me in to studying the game thirty years ago, used to say: “Opinions are like assholes. Everybody has one, and they all stink.” I haven’t sniffed everyone’s opinion, but I think it’s fair to say we all have one others would consider less than rosy. If you find mine appalling and would like to let me know, do so in the comments. Undue praise and deserved criticism are welcome. Please send personal attacks to DeleteSansReading@gmail.com.
  • Ordinal rankings tend to imply a level of separation that is sometimes essentially nonexistent. I could see arguments for players 2-6 to be in any order. Ditto players 9-20. At some point, it comes down to preference and best-guessing.
  • Building on that, rankings are somewhat fluid. Because of the amount of time I have spent studying and thinking about football, I can easily talk myself into and out of an argument for or against a player. With the exception of number one, my placement of most players moved around, sometimes significantly, while constructing the list. When I publish the update, many players will see large changes in rank.
  • It’s just football. It probably seems silly to say something like this after writing 200,000+ words for a trivial list, but it’s just entertainment. This stuff doesn’t really matter to me beyond that.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.
The Grand List, part 22: Includes players 149-101.
The Grand List, part 23: Includes players 100-51.
The Grand List, part 24: Includes players 50-21.

Let’s wrap it up.

[continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 Players who had great 2020 seasons will see their status rise—sometimes significantly. There are some older players for whom I had only seen a handful of full games, and adding to the body of evidence actually decreased my opinion of them. A few players who weren’t on the original list at all will knock off some lower ranking players from the initial list. I am constantly updating my opinions based on new information; I reserve the right to get smarter.

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The Grand List, part 24

by on July 2, 2021
in History

This marks the penultimate section of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in pro football history (or something like that). Keep in mind, of course, that I have purposely excluded the 2020 season because I began publishing the list before the season started. It feels a little silly to write as though the past season didn’t happen, but I don’t think it would be fair to count a season for higher ranked players that I didn’t include for lower ranked players. Today’s section covers players 50 through 21, and the top 20 will follow when I get around to it. This range includes many players often considered the greatest of all time at their respective positions, a few modern players who are probably higher here than they appear on most lists, and the last of the premodern stars. I have little doubt everyone who reads will be in complete agreement with these choices.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.
The Grand List, part 22: Includes players 149-101.
The Grand List, part 23: Includes players 100-51.

We’re almost there.

[continue reading…]

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The Grand List, part 23

by on June 11, 2021
in History

Welcome to the antepenultimate section of the Grand List, in which I count down the top thousand players in pro football history (through 2019, when the countdown began). I have researched the game for decades, with thousands of hours of dedicated film study, obsessive attention to stats both common and obscure, and a frankly pathetic amount of literature consumed. So I would like to think my positions are well-grounded, having been based on thoughtful analysis and a great deal of attention to my own biases to try to account for my own blind spots. However, at the end of the day, I am still just one idiot on the internet making a list that I hope will engage people in friendly discussion about the game we love. All my time spent studying doesn’t make my opinion any more valid than the reader’s. Heck, I can think of a guy famed for his intellect who did plenty of studying at Harvard, and he’s a dunce.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.
The Grand List, part 22: Includes players 149-101.

Onward we go.

[continue reading…]

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The Grand List, part 22

by on June 2, 2021
in History

It’s time for yet another entry in the Grand List, a countdown of the top 1000 players in pro football history, in one fool’s opinion. [1]Remember, this list stops after the first hundred years of the NFL. That means I didn’t consider 2020 in my rankings. When I finish the full list, I plan to re-post an update that includes the … Continue reading We’re getting to the part where more quarterbacks are showing up, which often means increased noise from those who disagree. [2]I kindly remind you to send all hate mail to deletesansreading@gmail.com. As a person who hates arguing but loves sharing ideas, I have only brought this nightmare on myself and accept my fate.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.

Let’s get into it.

[continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 Remember, this list stops after the first hundred years of the NFL. That means I didn’t consider 2020 in my rankings. When I finish the full list, I plan to re-post an update that includes the past season, new additions, risers, and fallers. So it’s pro football history, but with an asterisk in size four font.
↑2 I kindly remind you to send all hate mail to deletesansreading@gmail.com.

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The Grand List, part 21

by on May 17, 2021
in History

Strap in for part 21 of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in pro football history (who played enough time in the NFL to show they could succeed there). Doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but I’ve never been much for marketing and SEO optimization. Today’s section has a little something for everyone, with a wide enough distribution of positions to fill a full offense and defense—with subs. There are underrated non-Hall of Famers and legends often cited as the best at their positions. We have ballers from 1925 to the present, with versatile Swiss Army Knife types and guys who happened to do one thing but did it at an all time great level. We’re not at the part yet where people start questioning my sanity or telling me to take a nap in traffic, but we’re getting close!

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.

Words, words, words…

[continue reading…]

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The Grand List, part 20

by on April 30, 2021
in History

The old adage is that you build teams from the inside out. I don’t know if that is or ever has been true, but I know this: with 23 of the 50 players coming from the offensive of defensive line, part 20 of the Grand List is built from the inside out. At the same time, this is perhaps the most diverse section of the list, as it includes a player at every position, including the highest ranked kickers and punters in the series. There isn’t much controversy this time, with every player either a current or future Hall of Famer or a perennial all star. Enjoy.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.

Here we go, then.

[continue reading…]

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The Grand List, part 19

by on April 9, 2021
in History

Warmest regards, friends of the program. Today marks the 19th installment of the Grand List, in which I rank the top one thousand professional football players in history (whose careers preceded or included a good chunk of time in the NFL). In this section, we’ll look at players 299-250. It’s a portion of the list that includes a few players you may expect to see rank much higher, as well as a few players who may have you wondering why they were included in the top 1000 at all. Opinions are all my own and are derived from far too much time studying a meaningless game over a period of about thirty years. If you disagree, that’s great. If all lists looked the same, what a boring life that would be.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.

Let’s go, babies.

[continue reading…]

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The Grand List, part 18

by on March 29, 2021
in History

It’s time for part 18 of the Grand List, or: the top one thousand players in pro football history who played a significant amount of time in the NFL, or something like that. In today’s section of the list, we have likely-to-be-controversial quarterback rankings, a wide range of defensive linemen, a feast of interior blockers, some versatile backs (of both the running and defensive persuasion), several receivers underrated because of the modern passing explosion, and three very different linebackers. Only three active players are featured today, but I will repeat my caveat from last time: because most of this list was presented prior to the 2020 season, last year’s performances—good and bad—will have no bearing on a player’s ranking moving forward. I have every intention of posting the list, in full, with updates, provided Chase lets me publish such a long post. Maybe I’ll just post it as a list and only write about new additions, not to be mistaken for New Editions (so no Mike Bivins). Alas, I have rambled too long.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.

Festina, folks.

[continue reading…]

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The Grand List, part 17

by on March 12, 2021
in History

Welcome to part 17 of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in history (in my opinion, as of the end of the 2019 season). The original plan for this series was to have it done by the start of the 2020 season. That didn’t happen. In order to keep every player on the same playing field, I’m going to continue the presenting the series without including the 2020 season (it hardly seems fair to exclude 2020 for Nuk Hopkins but include it for Julio). [1]Spoiler alert! Quintorris made the list. This portion of the list has something for everyone, unless you fancy yourself a special teams enthusiast. We have passers, pure runners, receiving backs with confusing legacies, antediluvian receivers, linemen and linebackers of all kinds, a cover corner, and some hard hitting safeties. It’s safe to think of everything from this point on as a list of players whose play merits strong Hall of Fame consideration. [2]Note, there are several players who would move up (or even onto) the list were I to include 2020. Off the top of my head, I can think of 18 players already on the list who would move up. I can think … Continue reading

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400

Away we go!

[continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 Spoiler alert! Quintorris made the list.
↑2 Note, there are several players who would move up (or even onto) the list were I to include 2020. Off the top of my head, I can think of 18 players already on the list who would move up. I can think of another 16 who would move onto the list, or at least come mighty close. At the conclusion of the series, I plan to discuss those players. Hold me to that.

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Bryan’s 2020 All Pro Team

by on February 16, 2021
in Awards

While most (all?) other organizations and publications reserve their all pro selections for the regular season alone, I like to include the playoffs when handing out my awards and honors. This means I publish them way after anyone else publishes theirs, and certainly well past the point people who aren’t die-hard NFL degenerates still care about such things. Writing about things no one cares about is my specialty, so I figured I’d break my long writing hiatus to present some useless information to the good readers of Football Perspective. [1]People have asked me about finishing the Grand List, as well as other topics. While the plan was to finish the top 1000 prior to the start of the 2020 season, new life realities made that more … Continue reading

While most all pro teams have preset slots to fill, mine are more amorphous. In a season with several standouts at a position and few at another, I may allow for more players at the deep position and fewer at the shallow. Last year, my offense featured two backs, three wide receivers, and two tight ends. This year, it didn’t make much sense to have more than one back or tight end. Question my rationale if you like, but it’s my team, and I’ll do as I please. (Also, unlike the AP/SN/PFWA teams, players don’t have bonuses tied to my squad, and this ultimately doesn’t really matter). Enough with the expository applesauce. On to the picks. [continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 People have asked me about finishing the Grand List, as well as other topics. While the plan was to finish the top 1000 prior to the start of the 2020 season, new life realities made that more arduous than I had expected. The plan, then, was to simply finish it during the season, when more fans are searching for information and landing on FP. Then my mother unexpectedly died at 58 in the beginning of the season, and I was tasked with settling her affairs from several hours away, during a pandemic. Frankly, writing about football has been far from my mind all season, and this interval of online silence has been necessary to avoid burnout.

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History of the Career Receiving Touchdowns Record

by on September 22, 2020
in History, Receiving

Wide Receiver Jerry RiceI’ve written several histories of NFL career records, but the history of the career receiving touchdowns record is the most fascinating to me. Twelve men held the receptions title, and eleven held the receiving yards record. Seven different players held the record for rushing yards and for rushing touchdowns. Eleven quarterbacks held the passing yardage crown, while ten captured the touchdown title. This record is different. Thanks, primarily, to Don Hutson and Jerry Rice, only four players have held the record for receiving touchdowns since the NFL started keeping official statistics in 1932.

Receivers to Hold the Career Receiving Touchdowns Record

Johnny Blood (7 years as record-holder)

By the end of 1932, the first season in the official NFL record book, Blood had scored 25 receiving touchdowns. Most of those occurred in the “pre-stat” era, with 22 of his scores coming between 1926 and 1931. That includes a career high (by far) eleven touchdowns in 1931—he never had another season with more than five touchdowns. He played until 1938, slowly racking up touchdowns and retiring with 37 through the air.

Don Hutson (49 years, 3 months as record-holder)

Huston finished the 1939 season with 36 receiving touchdowns, just one shy of Blood’s record. To begin 1940, he tied the record in the third quarter of a blowout loss to the Bears, and he broke it in the opening quarter of a blowout win over the Cardinals. He got a fortunate break when WW2 took much of the talent from the NFL; during the war-depleted years, Hutson had by far his most productive touchdown seasons (1941-43 were his only three season with double-digit receiving scores). He ended his career with 99 receiving touchdowns, a number that wasn’t approached for decades.

Steve Largent (3 years as record-holder)

Largent was two touchdowns shy of the record coming into the 1989 season. Things looked dim for the receiver, who scored in week one but followed with ten straight weeks in which he failed to find the end zone. However, he was able to tie the record in game twelve and subsequently break it in week 14. The last touchdown of his storied Hall of Fame career was the one that gave him sole possession of the record. He didn’t hold the record for long, because the most prolific player of all time was already on his heels.

Jerry Rice (27 years, 10 months as record-holder, so far)

Through seven seasons (1985-91), Rice had already compiled 93 receiving touchdowns. [1]He did this despite a slow start, hauling in just three touchdown passes as a rookie. Rice then scored 15, 22, 9, 17, 13, and 14 receiving touchdowns, averaging a touchdown per game over that span. In week 12 of 1992, Rice tied Largent’s record in a victory over the Eagles. The following week, in a dominant win over the Dolphins, World gained sole possession of the record, becoming the first player in history to top the century mark. He added an incredible 96 touchdowns after that, walking away with 197 and a distant lead over anyone before or since. [2]The second and third place receivers, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, were incredibly productive for several years. Moss finished with 156, and Owens finished with 153. The two of them have a sizable … Continue reading

Future of the Career Receiving Touchdowns Record

This record seems like it’s going to last for a pretty long time. As of today, the top ten active leaders in touchdowns are:

Larry Fitzgerald – 120
Rob Gronkowski – 79
Jimmy Graham – 75
Antonio Brown – 75
Jason Witten – 72
A.J. Green – 63
Demaryius Thomas – 63
Greg Olsen – 60
Julio Jones – 57
DeSean Jackson – 55
DeAndre Hopkins – 55

Fitzgerald is 37 and is still 77 touchdowns short of the record. Gronk needs 118 to tie, which would more than double his career output to date. Given his injury history, it’s a little outlandish to expect him to come anywhere close. Graham is 122 shy and is just not very good anymore, and he hasn’t been for some time now. Brown is also 122 away, and he is both 32 years old and out of the league for being a total head case.

Witten has looked and played like an old man since he entered the league. Green looks like he aged a decade overnight. Thomas can’t find a team, and Olsen looks his age. Jones famously doesn’t score touchdowns, while Jackson is 33 and not the threat he once was.

Looking for younger players on the right track, I don’t see anyone. But let’s discuss a few anyway. How about DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Davante Adams, and Travis Kelce.

Hopkins is 28 and has 55 touchdowns. His career high was 13 in 2017. For reference, Rice had eight seasons with at least that many touchdowns (and six with more). He’d have to replicate his best season eleven times to own the record!

Evans is just 27, and he has 50 scores. He has also only had two seasons in which he played the full 16 games. With 9 touchdowns per 16 games over his career, he’d have to reproduce his career average—without missing a game—for over 15 more years. Or average 14.7 touchdowns a year over the next decade.

Beckham started his career on fire, scoring 35 touchdowns in his first three seasons. He’s one of just six players in history to accomplish that. But from 2017 to present, he has played in just 34 games and scored a mere 14 touchdowns. That means after his tremendous start he is now 148 touchdowns short of the record with no signs of reclaiming past glory.

Adams is 28 and has 46 touchdowns. Most of that came from 2016-28, during which time he scored 35 times. He had a down year in 2019, scoring just five touchdowns. That might not seem like an issue, but things have to go perfectly to take the crown from the king. Rice started slow with three touchdowns, but after that, he didn’t have a season as low as five until he was 35 years old and played in just two games. During his “peakiest” peak, from ages 24-33, his touchdown output looked like something from a video game: 15, 22, 9 (his down year), 17, 13, 14, 10, 15, 13, and 15.

Kelce will be 31 in a few weeks. He’s a scoring machine for a tight end, but with 38 touchdowns he is still 159 shy of Rice. If he was guaranteed to match his career high every year until he broke the record, he’d have to play until he was 47.

Maybe Reek Hill is a sleeper. He is a big play threat and a favorite target of a guy who throws a lot of touchdown passes. I don’t think he stands a chance. At 26, he’s already older than he seems. And he has just 33 touchdowns. Rice had 49 by that age and added 97 over the following seven seasons. Then he threw in another 51 just for funsies.

What I’m saying is this: I don’t believe any active player will break Rice’s record, even with expanded schedules.

References

References
↑1 He did this despite a slow start, hauling in just three touchdown passes as a rookie. Rice then scored 15, 22, 9, 17, 13, and 14 receiving touchdowns, averaging a touchdown per game over that span.
↑2 The second and third place receivers, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, were incredibly productive for several years. Moss finished with 156, and Owens finished with 153. The two of them have a sizable lead over fourth place Cris Carter (130), but neither is within 40 of Rice.

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History of the Career Passing Yards Record

by on September 14, 2020
in History, Passing, Quarterbacks

This is an update and revision to a post I wrote after Peyton Manning’s retirement following the 2015 season. I originally penned it to celebrate Manning’s triumph over the record books and look back at the history of the record. Since then, Drew Brees and Tom Brady have broken that record, and both look to push it to new heights as they battle for the crown. Brees beat Brady to the mark and hasn’t looked back yet. The Saint has a history of beating the odds. He has been lauded by an adoring media and legions of fans, and deservedly so. However, with all the attention given to modern players, we often fail to properly remember former greats – legends of the game who paved the way for the sports celebrities of today.

More than relics from days past, these men were trailblazers who helped legitimize the sport we have grown to love. Unlike the iconic sports figures of today, many of these players were actual heroes, serving in the military and coming home to work full-time jobs to support their families. Before quarterbacks were millionaires, they were mostly indistinguishable from the everyman. Except on Sundays. On Sundays, they became giants. [continue reading…]

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The Grand List, part 16

by on September 10, 2020
in History

Get ready for part 16 in my neverending series The Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in history in the opinion of one guy on the internet. This is an offense-heavy section of the list, with 37 of the 50 players on that side of the ball. There are quarterbacks whose own fans didn’t seem to care for them, a stylistic variety of running backs, receivers spanning nearly the whole of the league’s history, a group of underrated tight ends, and something for everyone along the offensive line. While there aren’t many defenders, each main corps is represented. Maybe you’ll like it.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.

Let us go then, you and I.

[continue reading…]

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The Grand List, part 15

by on September 2, 2020
in History

It’s time for the fifteenth installment of The Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in football history. Or something like that. This is an ideal post for long ball fetishists, nose tackle aficionados, and fans of linemen who were underrated because of the skill players for whom they blocked. Please send all hate mail to Chase. He loves reading that stuff.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.

Enjoy.

[continue reading…]

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The Grand List, part 14

by on August 24, 2020
in History

It’s time for the fourteenth part in my series The Grand List, or: the top 1000 pro football players in history. [1]Who made their mark in the NFL or the pre-NFL pros. Anthony Calvillo will not be making an appearance. By the end of the article, we will finally be at the halfway mark. When I began this project, the plan was to fit the full thousand in thirteen posts, so you see how good I am at planning ahead. This section is heavy on offensive skill players (18) and trench players (19), so if you enjoy reading about those positions, you’re in luck. If not, there are a few other fellows in there too, so don’t feel left out. This is yet another post that includes Pro Football Hall of Fame members outside of the top 500. [2]I believe there are eight, but I don’t feel like counting. My hope is that, as the list unfolds, I will have adequately given my reasoning why such acclaimed individuals are so far out of line with the popular view.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.

Let’s get down to business.

[continue reading…]

References

References
↑1 Who made their mark in the NFL or the pre-NFL pros. Anthony Calvillo will not be making an appearance.
↑2 I believe there are eight, but I don’t feel like counting.

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