Did you know that the Titans are 13-0 when Derrick Henry rushes for at least 100 yards? Analysts who have given more than a few seconds of thought know this is the kind of statistic doesn’t tell us much about causality. I’ll let Doug Drinen explain why, as he did back in May 2001 in a classic article on the types of tricks people use to lie with statistics:
Thoughtful analysts have long known that while running successfully can help you win, winning definitely leads to more carries and more yards. That said, I wanted to actually investigate Henry’s 13 games with the Titans where he crossed the century mark and see: how much did it matter that he rushed for 100 yards?
Crossing the 100-yard mark did not help Tennessee win (3 games)
Week 4, 2019 vs. ATL – Boxscore
Henry rushed for exactly 100 yards in this game. His final carry was a 1-yard run on 3rd-and-11 that brought us to the two-minute warning. The Titans were up 24-10 at this point, so crossing the 100-yard mark was meaningless.
Week 13, 2017 vs. HOU – Boxscore
The Titans led 17-13 with 57 seconds remaining in the game. The Texans had just called their final timeout. Tennessee had 3rd-and-5 at their own 25-yard line, and a punt here would give Houston the ball back with a chance to win. However, Henry was sharing carries with DeMarco Murray at this point in his career, and with 57 seconds remaining, Henry had just 10 carries for 34 yards. On his final carry of the game, he rushed for 5 yards to pick up the first down and clinch the game… and then kept going for another 70 yards, scoring a touchdown to put the icing on the cake. Henry finished with 11 carries for 109 yards, but had he been tackled at the Houston 10-yard line and finished with 99 yards, the game was still over. A great run that clinched the game, to be sure, but him actually crossing the century mark was meaningless.
Week 6, 2017 vs. IND – Boxscore
Henry’s first 100-yard game, and a near mirror image of the game described above. Henry had 18 carries for 59 yards with 1:00 left in the game. The Titans, up by 7 points, had 3rd-and-5 at their own 28, with the Colts out of timeouts. A failed third down conversion would give Indianapolis a chance to tie the game, but Henry rushed for 5 yards to pick up the first down… and then 68 more. He finished with 19 carries for 131 yards, but crossing the 100-yard mark was not meaningful to helping the Colts win. Had he rushed for 6 yards, instead of 68 yards, the game still was over. [continue reading…]