Field goal efficiency continues to improve in the NFL. Every once in awhile, it’s worth checking in on the league average rates to get a sense of “what’s normal” when it comes to NFL kickers. For example, it’s now expected that a 50-yard field goal will be successful. In fact, over the last 5 years, kicks from 50-53 yards were made nearly 70% of the time!

The graph below shows the NFL success rate on field goals over 4-yard increments. Even from 54-57 yards, kickers are now expected to make those kicks.

We can also use those rates to take a simple look at how each kicker has fared relative to league average, based on the length of their kicks. This covers all field goals from 2014 to 2018, and you won’t be surprised to see Justin Tucker as the NFL’s top kicker over that period.

There are only a few statistics that have clear long-term trends. And two of them happen to intersect in a notable way.

The NFL used to have significantly more turnovers. Both fumbles lost and interceptions thrown have been declining since the merger, and for the decades before then, too.

Another trend: field goal accuracy has gone up, consistently, for generations. Field goal attempts rose for much of history until 1974 — when the goal posts were moved 10 yards from the front of the end zone to the back — and then began rising again. As a result, made field goals have increased significantly.

There have been varying numbers of teams and games on team’s schedules throughout history, so the best way to think of some statistics is on a per team basis. To avoid too many decimals, let’s look at things on a per-100 team game basis for the remainder of this post.

In 1950, teams made 51 field goals per 100 team games, or just over half a field goal per game (they attempted about 1.2). Also in 1950: teams averaged 373 turnovers per 100 team games! In other words, in a given game, if you picked a random play, it was over 7 times as likely to be a turnover than a successful field goal.

In 1960 (NFL data only), teams made 104 field goals per 100 team games, and committed 286 turnovers. So now a turnover was 2.74 times as likely as a field goal.

In 1970, teams made 131 field goals and committed 243 turnovers per team game, making turnovers 1.85 times as likely as successful field goal tries.

By 1980, we were back down to 107 field goals (remember, the goal posts were now 10 yards back) and 232 turnovers per 100 team games, for a ratio of 2.17 turnovers to every field goal.

In 1990, teams made 132 field goals per team game and had 199 turnovers, the first season where teams averaged fewer than two turnovers per game. This was a ratio of 1.51 to 1.

In 2000, teams kicked 147 field goals per team and and had 188 turnovers, meaning there was only 1.28 turnovers for every successful field goal.

In 2008, teams made 165 field goals per team game and committed just 155 turnovers, the first season where there were more field goals made than turnovers forced.

And last year, in 2017, teams averaged 169 field goals per team game and only 138 turnovers, for a rate of 0.82 turnovers per field goal, the single lowest rate in NFL history.

But despite all the words I just wrote, one picture is worth more than all of them. The graph below shows the turnovers committed and field goals made per 100 team games.

Pretty crazy, eh? Entertainment is subjective, of course, but declining turnover rates and increasing field goal rates do not seem like steps in the direction of a more entertaining game.

Yesterday, I wrote about Nick Lowery and why I think he was the greatest field goal kicker in NFL history.  That post was pretty long — I probably should have broken it into two parts — but I’d welcome any more discussion on the topic here or there.

So today I’ll keep it short and sweet: a reminder on how necessary era adjustments are when discussing field goal kickers. The graph below shows the field goal success rate throughout history. From 1960 to 1964, the average success rate was 50 percent. Over the last five years, the average rate was 85 percent.

Even more remarkable is that kicks are being attempted from farther away now, too. In 1960, the average kick was from 30.9 yards away; the average successful kick was from 26.2 yards out, while the average miss was from 36.0 yards away. Well, in 2016, the average kick was from 37.7 yards away; the average successful kick was from 36.2 yards out — farther than the average miss in 1960! — while the average miss was from 46.2 yards away.

The graph below shows the average length of each field goal attempt, in blue, each field goal made, in orange, and each field goal miss, in gray. [continue reading…]

A couple of years ago, I wrote about the best field goal kickers in NFL history. That was a three–part series where I measured how accurate each field goal kicker has been after adjusting for era and distance. The result? Nick Lowery was, by a clear margin, the most valuable field goal kicker in NFL history. He made kicks at a rate nearly 10% higher than league average after adjusting for era and distance, an astonishing level of success considering his reputation hasn’t quite matched his production.

Today, I wanted to update that post and also provide a comparison of the four men generally considered in contention for the title of top field goal kicker in history: Jan Stenerud, the first pure placekicker to make the Hall of Fame, Morten Andersen, who became the second such Hall of Famer this year, Nick Lowery, my choice for the best kicker ever, and Gary Anderson, who had a long and distinguished career.

I used a simple methodology this time around to compare the four kickers: I catalogued all field goal attempts in NFL history into five yard ranges (i.e., 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, etc.). Then, I looked at the league average success rate that season and calculated the expected number of field goals an average kicker would be expected to make from that range. So if the league average rate on kicks from 40-44 yards was 75%, a kicker with 8 field goal attempts from that rage would be “expected” to make 6 of those attempts. Finally, I calculated how many field goals each kicker made above expectation, and then created the following four charts. So if a kicker made 7 out of 8, he would be at +1.0. I have coded particularly good outcomes in blue, and bad outcomes in red. Let’s get to it.

Jan Stenerud [continue reading…]

On Thursday, I looked at the quarterbacks with the most game-winning touchdown passes that came in the fourth quarter or overtime. Yesterday, I did the same for all touchdowns scored, either as a running touchdown, receiving touchdown, or otherwise. Three years ago, I looked at the same concept but for field goals: today, we revisit that post.

At the time, Morten Andersen was the career leader with 35, while Adam Vinatieri was hot on his trails with 30. Well, Vinatieri didn’t have a single game-winning field goal after the third quarter of any game in 2013 or 2014, but he then did it three times in two months last year (against Jacksonville in overtime from 27 yards, a 55-yarder against the Broncos with 6 minutes left, and a 43-yarder in the final minute against Atlanta.

Of his 33 game-winning field goals, 16 have been from 40+ yards away, with five of those being from 50+ yards, while his average game-winning field goal has come from 37.1 yards: [continue reading…]

On Friday, I looked at the career leaders in 4th quarter (and overtime) game-winning touchdowns from scrimmage. Yesterday I presented the all-time leaders in passing touchdowns. Today we give field goal kickers some love using the same criteria.
[continue reading…]