Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9
• Week 10

[continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9

[continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8

[continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7

In week 8 — which was nearly two weeks ago, my apologies — there were three teams that really leaned on the ground game. Buffalo never led by more than 8 points against New England, and the game was very close throughout. Despite this, the Bills ran on two-thirds of their plays. Buffalo running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss carried 28 times for 167 yards and two touchdowns, while Josh Allen struggled most of the day as a passer. And, as you might have guessed, Allen contributed as a runner: he had three scrambles for 24 yards and three more designed runs (he finished with 10 carries on the day, owing to four kneels). But a 2-to-1 run/pass ratio in a 3-point win is almost unheard of in the modern era, absent crazy weather or a running quarterback. Had I published this article on time, I could have had scathing criticism for Allen as a passer or the Bills offensive design, but in week 9, the Bills went super pass-heavy and won(more on this later in the week). So consider this a one-week anomaly, or a reaction to the Patriots defense (or both). [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6

It was 18 years ago that Herm Edwards made his famous “You Play To Win The Game” speech. That came after the Jets had a loss in their 7th game of the season, dropping the team’s record to 2-5.

With that backdrop, let’s move on to some…. curious…. coaching decisions after seven weeks of the 2020 NFL season.

Before getting to the data, I want you to think about how the following game would unfold. A team trails by at least 14 points at halftime and ultimately loses by at least 21 points. This is your classic blowout, a game that wasn’t competitive for very long. Now, how frequently would you expect the losing team to pass? From a Game Scripts perspective, this is obviously a game that would heavily incentive throwing the football. However, sometimes teams just give up. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5

On Monday night in Buffalo, the Kansas City Chiefs produced one of the most run-happy games of the Andy Reid era. On a rainy night where the Bills defense consistently dared the Chiefs to run the ball, Kansas City didn’t take the bait, running 44 times for 247 yards and15 first downs. The Chiefs punted on the opening drives of both halves, but that was it: otherwise, Kansas City was able to consistently move the ball on the Bills without relying much on more than the threat of Patrick Mahomes. It was the sort of performance you would expect from that other AFC powerhouse: last year, the Ravens had a record four games with 240+ rushing yards and a 120+ passer rating, marks the Chiefs met in the win over Buffalo. With Le’Veon Bell coming on to the roster, the Kansas City offense should only get more potent.

The full week 6 Game Scripts, below. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4

You might not expect Nick Foles and Tom Brady — at least, the 2020 versions of those guys — to engage in an all out aerial assault. And while the quality wasn’t there, the quantity certainly was: combined, the two quarterbacks had 89 dropbacks, while the two teams called just 30 running plays (excluding QB sneaks and kneeldowns). That is a remarkably pass-heavy game, the likes of which we typically only see once a year. But in terms of passing efficiency, it was … not so great. The Bears were particularly notable: you often see a team have a poor passing day and also be pass-happy, but that’s usually because they lost the game; you rarely seem a team win, run just 14 times, and average under 5 yards per pass! In fact, it hadn’t happened since 2013, and it had only happened 9 times since the merger! Of course, Chicago wasn’t very effective on the ground, so passing still was the optimal strategy.

For Tampa Bay, this was just more evidence that Tampa Tom is in full control of the offense. The Bucs are 5th in pass attempts despite usually playing with a lead; on Thursday Night against Chicago, the Bucs finished with a +3.6 Game Script and still passed on nearly 70% of their plays.  Running back Ronald Jones II, who was the only player other than Brady to have a run or pass, finished with 17 carries; Brady finished with 43 plays! That means 72% of all Tampa plays — mind you, in a game they were usually leading — went through Brady.

The full week 5 Game Scripts below. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3

In week 3, the Bengals passed on 74% of their plays against Philadelphia in a game where Cincinnati led after three quarters (and ultimately tied). In week 4, the 49ers passed on 71% of their plays against Philadelphia in a game where San Francisco led after three quarters (and ultimately lost in the final minutes). In 2018 and 2019, there just were 7 games each season where a team led after three quarters and still passed on 71% of their plays; it’s happened against the Eagles now in back to back weeks!

Interestingly, during the first two weeks of the season, Eagles opponents were extremely run-heavy, even after accounting for Game Script. Philadelphia faced a league-high 75 rushing plays in the first two games of the season, but have been the most pass-happy defense since then. I don’t have a good explanation for this one — the 49ers don’t profile as a pass-happy team, but wound up having 50 dropbacks between their second and third string quarterbacks.

The full Week 4 Game Scripts below:

The Vikings and Saints profiled as the two run-heavy teams of the week. For Minnesota, this is hardly a surprise; the Vikings have been trying for years to be a run-heavy team, even if the personnel (or salary cap hits) didn’t always dictate that.

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2

The two football teams in Ohio have taken very different approaches to offensive football. With first overall pick Joe Burrow at quarterback, the Bengals have quickly become one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. Cincinnati played Philadelphia to a tie in week three, and yet Burrow had 52 dropbacks while Cincinnati handed off the football just 17 times. This game was close throughout and yet the Bengals were still extremely pass-happy. In fact, since the start of the 2014 season there have been just four games where a team did not lose or trail by more than 6 points after the second and third quarters, and still passed on at least 74% of their plays: two Tom Brady games, one Aaron Rodgers game, and the Bengals in week three.

A week ago, I noted that Cleveland ran on 60% of their plays for the first time in 5 years. Well in week 3, the Browns trailed entering the 4th quarter, and yet still ran on 57% of plays. That has not happened for Cleveland since 2009 and has happened just five times since the Browns rejoined the NFL in 1999. The Browns were just the 14th team since the start of the 2015 season to meet those two thresholds, a sure sign that Cleveland is now one of the most run-heavy teams in football.

The Cowboys had one of the NFL’s most pass-heavy games in week three. Dak Prescott threw 57 passes, tied for the third most in Cowboys history. Dallas rarely passes this often, and when they do, it’s usually because of a large deficit. But against Seattle, the Cowboys were competitive most of the game and led late. Prescott himself was responsible for nearly half of the team’s rushing yards, too; he finished with 484 yards of offensive, setting a new Dallas franchise record.

Miami also checked in as very run-heavy in week three; the Dolphins ran on over 63% of plays in a game they handled most of the way. Miami finished with both the strongest game script and the strongest run ratio, but Miami still had a very run-heavy gameplan. A good comparison would be to Tampa Bay, who had a similar Game Script but once again checked in as super pass-happy. For the second straight week, Tom Brady and company went pass-happy in an easy win. Last week, the Bucs passed 61.4% of the time in a game with a +11.6 Game Script; this week, it was 61.5% with a +12.1 Game Script. From 2017 to 2020, there were only five games where a team led by double digits at the end of each quarter and threw on 61% of their pass plays; the 2020 Bucs are responsible for two of those games, and Tom Brady is responsible for three of them.

The more surprising development continues to be how pass-happy the Buffalo Bills have become. Buffalo had a Game Script of +8.4, albeit in a weird game that saw the team trailing in the final minute. Still, the Bills — who checked in as very pass-happy over the first two weeks — passed on 64% of their plays in week three. Among all winning teams, Buffalo had the second highest pass ratio in week 3, trailing only the Bears — who had a -8.5 Game Script! Josh Allen continues to be the engine in the Buffalo offense.

As for those Bears, it marked the second straight week where Atlanta lost with a Game Script of over +8.0. Meanwhile, the Jets gave up for the second week in a row, but what more is there to right about? At some point, the stats don’t really need to be broken down.

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts

[continue reading…]

The Jets and Eagles both lost division games in week one by the same 27-17 score. But don’t let the final score deceive you: these two games were as different as can be. With 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter of both games, the Jets trailed Buffalo 21-0 while the Eagles led 17-0 over the Washington Football Team. The final scores were not at all indicative of how the game unfolded: the Bills dominated the game start to finish, and only a late Jets touchdown kept the final score respectable. Buffalo finished with a +12.4 Game Script, meaning the Bills led — on average — by 12.4 points over every second of the game. Meanwhile, Washington had a -5.3 Game Script — trailing big early, trailing entering the 4th quarter, and only taking a lead with less than 7 minutes remaining — in the comeback win.

Every year, I calculate the game scripts each week for each NFL game. The Game Script is simply the name I assign to the points differential over every second of the game. Last year, Baltimore had the highest Game Script of week 1, and they repeated that feat on the opening weekend of 2020. There were several notable comebacks in week 1 of the 2020 season, but Washington and Chicago stood out with huge comebacks. The full Game Scripts data below. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9
• Week 10
• Week 11
• Week 12
• Week 13
• Week 14

Jacksonville won with a Game Script of -8.1 on Sunday, giving the Jaguars one of the best comebacks of the season. Jacksonville started the game with a 65-yard drive, then had drives of 3 yards, -5 yards, -2 yards, 14 yards, and 6 yards. Jacksonville trailed 16-3 in the third quarter, but the team responded with a 72-yard field goal drive, a 53-yard TD drive, and a 56-yard TD drive to steal a victory in Oakland.

The Steelers were the most pass-happy team of the week, which was pretty odd considering how poorly Devlin Hodges played. Pittsburgh had a positive Game Script for the week, but Hodges still finishes with 42 dropbacks. James Conner finished with only 8 carries for 42 yards, although a costly fumble on a wildcat play perhaps led the Steelers towards a more pass-happy game plan. Hodges finished with just 8 first downs (a 19% rate), so nothing was really working for Pittsburgh against a tough Bills defense.

The Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals stood out as the most run-heavy teams of the week. Dallas ran on 66% of its plays against the Rams in week 15, making it the most run-heavy game the Cowboys have had in 13 years! How long ago was that? This game came four weeks before Tony Romo‘s first start!

Meanwhile, the Bengals had another week of giving up. No, this wasn’t quite as bad as the run-heavy performance in a blowout loss to Baltimore, but Cincinnati finished with 31 pass attempts and 31 rush attempts in a blowout loss to the Patriots.  A 50/50 run/pass split is pretty rare in most games, but very rare when the Game Script is -7.4.  On the other hand, Andy Dalton was very bad — he threw a pick 6 on top of three other interceptions — and Joe Mixon actually had a strong day on the ground. So maybe this wasn’t the worst strategy for Cincinnati.

What stands out to you?

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9
• Week 10
• Week 11
• Week 12
• Week 13

One of the big upsets of the year came in week 14: the Broncos were 8-point underdogs to Houston, and jumped out to a 31-3 halftime lead.  That sort of blowout by a large underdog only happens about once every two years.  There was also a large comeback in week 14, as the Eagles beat the Giants with a -6.4 Game Script. The Giants raced ahead to a 17-3 halftime lead, but Philadelphia scored three touchdowns — one in each of the final three quarters — to win, 23-17.

It was a pretty run-heavy week 14; no team passed on even 71% of their plays. There were 6 games in week 13 where a team passed on at least 71% of plays, and then zero last week. If you squint, you could call the Giants, Cowboys, and Colts pass-happy last week, but none were all that one-sided.  The full Game Scripts data below:

 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Washington were all pretty run-heavy.  The Redskins/Packers game reminded me a bit of the Broncos/Packers game from week 3; the Packers controlled the game, but the other team still deployed a run-heavy game plan.  Dwayne Haskins had 31 dropbacks (and no rushing attempts other than a kneel), while Adrian Peterson and company had 26 carries.  Washington opened the game with 3 3-and-outs. The first one was run for 0, run for 1, sack. The second was sack, incomplete pass, pass for 9. The third was run for 3, run for 6, incomplete.  Give the Redskins credit for variety, at least.

With the Ravens, we expect run-heavy game plans every week, and week 14 was no exception.  Lamar Jackson had 26 passing plays, while Baltimore had 33 runs (two kneels).  Interesting, none of Jackson’s 10 runs were scrambles.

As for the Steelers, Devlin Hodges led a run-heavy game plan with Pittsburgh, made easier by an 85-yard punt return touchdown in the first quarter. Against the Cardinals, Hodges went 16 for 19 for 152 yards with a TD and three sacks; he also had 4 scrambles. Pittsburgh’s running game wasn’t particularly effective, as the running backs had 28 carries for 98 yards and just three first downs.  But Hodges picked up 12 first downs on his 26 dropbacks (including scrambles), and that was enough — along with a strong Steelers defense — to carry the day.

This graph shows every game this season. The X-Axis shows the Game Script in each game, for both teams, and the Y-Axis shows the pass ratio by each team in that game. As always, these is a relatively strong relationship between these two variables.

We can also calculate this on the season level, for all 32 teams, on both offense and defense. That’s what I did in the graph below, and there are three notable outliers among the league’s best teams: the Ravens offense, which is extremely run-heavy even given its Game Script, the Patriots offense, which is remarkably pass-heavy given its Game Script, and the 49ers defense, against which teams seem to avoid passing even given the largely negative Game Script those opponents face. I have shaded them in those colors below. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9
• Week 10
• Week 11
• Week 12

The Vikings have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL under head coach Mike Zimmer.  That made some sense when Minnesota’s passing game wasn’t very good, but that’s no longer the case.  This year, quarterback Kirk Cousins has been one of the most valuable passers in the NFL,  leading the second most efficient passing attack through 13 weeks.  But even in 2019, Minnesota has been pretty run-heavy… until week 13 against Seattle.

The graph below shows Minnesota’s Game Script (X-Axis) and Pass Ratio (Y-Axis) for each game this season.  The Seahawks game is a pretty clear outlier: this was the most pass-happy game of the season, and it came during a neutral Game Script.

The table below shows the full week 13 Game Scripts data. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9
• Week 10
• Week 11

There have been just 5 games through the first 12 weeks of the season where one team led, on average, by at least 20 points throughout the game. Two of those games were Patriots blowouts of the Jets, where New England dominated from start to finish and the Jets offense never scored in 120 minutes. The other 3 games were all Baltimore Ravens wins: over Miami in week 1, over Cincinnati in week 10, and then most impressively, against the Rams in week 12. For the season, New England still has the best Game Script overall (+9.3), but the Ravens (+8.9) are closing in, and the 49ers (+7.1) are the only other team above +3.3.

In week 12, the Colts and Bills stood out as extremely run-heavy. For Indianapolis, what more is there to say than this: the Colts trailed by 3 points during every play run by the team in the 4th quarter. Indianapolis called 15 plays during this time period, and 10 of them were runs.

Jacoby Brissett finished 16 of 25 for just 129 passing yards, with one sack and three scrambles for 15 yards. He averaged just 2.6 air yards per completion. Meanwhile, Colts running backs Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines had 34 carries for 155 yards and a touchdown, and Indianapolis has seemed to become more run-heavy as the season progressed. Since Brissett’s injury against the Steelers, he has not looked very good. On the season, the Colts rank 3rd in rushing yards and 29th in passing yards, which makes the decision to extend Brissett in September look even more curious.

As for Buffalo, it’s not surprising to see the Bills take the air out of the ball when they control the game. Buffalo finished with three 50+ yard rushers in a 20-3 win against the Broncos, and set a season high with 244 rushing yards. The table below shows the full week 12 Game Scripts data: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9
• Week 10

Way back in week 1, the Buffalo Bills beat the Jets with a Game Script of -6.9. That was the worst Game Script by any victorious team all season long, until the Vikings pulled off a remarkable comeback in week 11. The Broncos led 20-0 at halftime, and 23-7 entering the fourth quarter in a game that looked hopeless for Minnesota. And then Kirk Cousins went 9 of 10 (with 1 sack for -1 yard) for 149 passing yards, 5 first downs, and 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter. In the final frame, he had touchdown throws of 32 and 54 yards, completed 9-yard and 7-yard passes on two 3rd-and-5s, and hit a 21-yard completion as well. It was an outstanding comeback in every sense of the word, but notable here for the win with an awful Game Script.

In week 11, there were three teams that had run/pass ratios far from what you would expect given the Game Script. In a matchup of highly drafted quarterbacks experiencing regression this year, the Rams defeated the Bears, 17-7, in a game that was closer than the score indicates. The game was 10-7 before a late Los Angeles touchdown, and the Rams finished the game on their last possession with five straight runs. Even including those, Los Angeles passed on only 35% of its plays in this tight game (and excluding that final drive, L.A. passed on only 38% of plays): and it’s not like the ground game was dominant. Todd Gurley had 25 carries for 97 yards and 6 first downs (and a lost fumble), while the other Rams rushers (excluding Jared Goff) had 6 carries for 10 yards and 1 first down. This may have been a reflection of the team’s lack of trust in Goff, or perhaps a lack of concern as to what Mitchell Trubisky would be able to do on the other side. Los Angeles opened the second half by gaining just 36 yards and 1 first down on the team’s first five drives.

Of course, there’s another reason why Los Angeles leaned so heavily on the ground game: Robert Woods missed the game due to personal reasons, and Brandin Cooks was out with a concussion.  That left TE Johnny Mundt playing the majority of the game, and the other Mike Thomas to be the team’s third receiver.

The full week 11 Game Scripts, below:
[continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9

In 1974, the Bengals — the Paul Brown/Bill Walsh/Ken Anderson Bengals — were running the West Coast Offense to perfection. Anderson completed a whopping 64.9% of his passes that season, setting a post-WWII record. But in the team’s final game of the season, with Anderson injured, the team turned to unheralded Wayne Clark at quarterback. Unfortunately, the schedule makers had the team’s final game in Pittsburgh, against the famed ’74 Steelers defense.

The Bengals were blown out, of course, and lost 27-3. Cincinnati trailed by at least 17 points at halftime, after three quarters, and at the end of the game. Naturally, this is a Game Script that would call for a lot of passes, but here’s the twist: the Bengals ran 41 times and passed just 8 times! Clark completed only 3 of those passes for 23 yards, with 2 of them going to TE Bruce Coslet — yes, that Bruce Coslet — for 24 yards; the third completion was a 1-yard loss to the running back.

Running 40 times in a game where you trail by 17 after the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters should sound weird to you. In fact, this Bengals game was the only time since the merger that all those factors were met. I say was, because that was the case until Sunday, when the modern Bengals pulled off the same trick.

Cincinnati rushed 40 times, and Joe Mixon had 30 carries, in a game where the Bengals trailed 14-0 after the 1st quarter, 28-10 at halftime, and 49-10 after three quarters. How do you call 40 rushing plays in a game where you are getting blown out? One answer is that Cincinnati was starting Ryan Finley for the first time in his career, although Finley did not play all that poorly. The other answer is that the Bengals just didn’t care.

My favorite drive was with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Cincinnati took over at its own 25, trailing 42-10. Yes, down by 32 with 20 minutes to go is not a good situation, but most teams would at least try to put some points on the board. Here’s what happened.

Play 1: Mixon run left tackle for 0 yards.
Play 2: Pass to Mixon 1 yard ahead of the line of scrimmage; Mixon gains 13 yards of YAC.
Play 3: Mixon run right tackle for 3 yards.
Play 4: Mixon run left guard for 1 yard.
Play 5: 3rd-and-6, Finley pass, sack, fumble, returned for touchdown.

Maybe the Bengals knew what they were doing calling all those running plays.

The table below shows the week 10 Game Scripts, headlined by the Ravens +21.6 Game Script. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8

[continue reading…]

Yesterday, we looked at the pass identities of each offense. Today, we will use the exact same methodology to examine NFL defenses. We would expect defenses to have less control over their pass identity than offenses, because of the obvious fact that it’s the offense that gets to choose whether to pass or run. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some interesting outliers.

Let’s begin with the Houston Texans, who have a basically neutral team. The Texans blew out the Falcons by 21 points, but otherwise have been in all one-score games. In fact, despite a 5-3 record, the Texans actually have a slightly negative Game Script of -0.6. So you would think opposing teams would pass a normal amount against them. You would be wrong: Houston opponents have passed on 66% of all plays this year, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only the Patriots (against whom opponents are forced to pass from the opening gun).

Why? Well, the Texans have a pretty bad pass defense and a pretty good run defense. Given that in general it’s smarter to pass than to run, and the Texans offense is pretty explosive, you can see why teams tend to pass against Houston. To particularly egregious examples: the Chiefs passed on 77% of plays, and the Chargers 74%, in their games against Houston. In both games, the Texans had a -2.4 Game Script. In both games, Houston trailed 10-0, but their opponents threw on 3 out of every 4 plays. That says a lot about the Texans secondary, and maybe also fear of the Houston offense.

Conversely, we have the San Francisco 49ers. Despite having the second best Game Script in the NFL and an undefeated 7-0 mark, teams have passed on only 60.1% of all plays against San Francisco this year (through 8 weeks, at least; this was written prior to the Thursday Night Game). Teams appear afraid of throwing against the 49ers, and it appears with good reason: the team’s pass defense has been dominant.

The graph below shows each pass defense this season. The X-axis shows Game Script, and the Y-Axis shows pass ratio by that team’s opponents. I have shaded the Texans and 49ers data points, along with the Jets. It’s not all that interesting because of how bad the Jets have been, but the Jets actually have the strongest pass identity of any defense this season, even more than Houston. More on them in a moment. [continue reading…]

The graph below shows the Game Script (X-Axis) and Pass Ratio (Y-Axis) for every game this season. For new readers, a team’s Game Script is simply its average margin of lead (or deficit) over every second of a game. Pass ratio is simply passing plays (pass attempts plus sacks) divided by all offensive plays (pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts).

As you can see, there’s a clear relationship between the two variables: on average, the better the Game Script, the lower the Pass Ratio.

We can also create season ratings of Game Scripts and Pass Ratios for each team. Let’s use the Patriots and Eagles as examples.

New England has had an average Game Script across its 8 games of +13.1. This year, New England’s pass ratio in those 8 games is 58.2%. Philadelphia has had an average Game Script of -2.2, and a pass ratio of 55.0%. It might strike you as odd to see that New England has a higher pass ratio — i.e., it’s passed more frequently — than Philadelphia. It should! That’s because New England has the strongest passing identity in the NFL, while the Eagles have the strongest rushing identity in the NFL.

The Patriots have, by far, the best average Game Script this season; all else being equal, you might expect New England to therefore have the lowest pass ratio in the NFL. Instead, the team is barely below average, ranking 19th in percentage of passing plays. Philadelphia has the 25th-best Game Script this year, as the Eagles had a -4.4 Game Script against Atlanta, a -4.9 GS against Detroit, a -9.9 vs. Minnesota and a -14.8 against Dallas. And yet the Eagles have just the 25th-best highest passing ratio in the league! That’s very run-heavy, as noted yesterday.

The graph below shows the Game Script (X-Axis) and Pass Ratio (Y-Axis) of each offense this season. I have shaded in team colors the Patriots and Eagles data points: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7

[continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6

In week 7, the Bears lost by 11 points and the Dolphins lost by 10 points, but the games couldn’t have been more different. Game Scripts are useful in cases like this: the Saints beat Chicago 36-25 but had a Game Script of +7.7. New Orleans 26-10 after three quarters, and 36-10 with 4 minutes remaining before the Bears raced to score 15 meaningless points. Meanwhile, in Buffalo, the Bills won with a Game Script of just +0.5. Miami actually led 14-9 at halftime and at the end of the third quarter, and only led 24-21 with less than two minutes remaining. Buffalo scored a touchdown on Miami’s last minute onside kick attempt, giving Buffalo a 10-point win in a game that was very close throughout.

The table below shows the Game Scripts from week 7: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4

The Seahawks beat the Rams in week 5 by the smallest of margins, 30-29. Quarterback Russell Wilson was incredible, averaging 14.25 ANY/A against Los Angles on 24 dropbacks. Wilson also had 5 scrambles for 28 yards, two kneel downs, and one designed carry for six yards. The Seahawks also had 35 designed runs for players other than Wilson that picked up 135 yards.

That is, to put it bluntly, not the correct ratio. Giving Wilson 30 plays and running the ball 35 times with someone else is pretty silly, but it’s doubly bad in a close game where Wilson is playing like a Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime. Seattle trailed entering the 4th quarter, and while Wilson’s 8 carries make the stats a bit misleading, consider the following:

Seattle with 43 rush attempts on 67 plays, a 64% run ratio. That’s the second-highest run ratio of any game in the last 5 years where a team trailed entering the 4th quarter, behind a super run-heavy game by the Colts in the snow in Buffalo in 2017. Seattle finished with a negative Game Script and ran more than they passed — by a lot — in a game where Wilson was outstanding!

By way of reference, consider how the Colts had a super run-heavy game in week 5. Jacoby Brissett had 29 dropbacks and 6 runs (2 scrambles, 2 kneels, 2 designed runs), while Indianapolis runners besides Brissett had 39 rushes for 171 yards! That is a really run-heavy game, but keep in mind two things: Indianapolis had a slightly positive Game Script of +1.8, and Brissett wasn’t all that good, averaging 3.66 ANY/A! The Colts had the second most run-heavy game of the week, and were still less run-heavy than Seattle despite the better Game Script, the better rushing attack, and the much, much, much worse passing attack.

The full week 5 Game Scripts, below: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3

If you drop back to pass 70 times, it doesn’t matter what the score is: that’s a very pass-heavy game! The Rams had one of the most pass-heavy games of the season on Sunday in a 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay. Los Angeles finished with 70 pass plays versus just 11 runs, an 86.4% pass ratio rarely see in the NFL.

And it wasn’t all game script. Los Angeles had 7 passes and 1 run (a Cooper Kupp handoff, no less) on the team’s first offensive drive of the game. And on the Rams second drive, with the score only 7-0, Los Angeles had 7 passes and no runs.  The Rams seemed to overcorrect on their third drive by running on the first two plays of their third drive, but two Malcolm Brown runs led to a 3rd-and-4 and a Jared Goff interception.  This means Todd Gurley didn’t get his first carry of the game until the team’s 18th play from scrimmage and fourth drive of the game.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers also had a very pass-heavy game plan in week four.  This was a perfectly even game: it was a back-and-forth contest where Green Bay finished with a -0.1 Game Script.  Running back Aaron Jones rushed 13 times for only 21 yards, while Rodgers had 53 pass attempts, 1 sack, and 5 scrambles (with zero designed runs).  That means the Packers called 59 pass plays and just 15 rushes, although Game Scripts data currently considers scrambles as rushing plays.  That’s remarkably pass-heavy for an even game.

Finally, Joe Flacco and the Broncos stood out as pass-happy, too.  Denver lost, but led the most of the game and finished with a +4.9 Game Script. Flacco played pretty well, taking no sacks and throwing for 15 first downs and 303 yards on 38 attempts.  Perhaps this was a response to my article about how Denver was over-the-top run-heavy in week 3?

The full week 4 Game Script data below: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2

New England is at it again, rolling through the NFL in dominant fashion.  For the third time in three games, the Patriots had a Game Script of over +14.0.  The Patriots have outscored teams by 53 points at halftime and 73 points through three quarters; both are the best marks in the league.  Here’s your money stat of the week: New England opponents have run 169 plays this year, and 120 of them (71%) have come with the Patriots leading by more than two touchdowns.

From a Game Scripts perspective, the most interesting thing about week 3 might have been that Tom Brady was still really pass-happy. The Patriots joined the rare 10/15/20/45 club: leading by at least 10, 15, and 20 points after the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters, respectively, and throwing 45+ times in the game.  The last time it happened was so unusual I wrote about it in this column then, too.

The other team that was really pass-heavy was Philip Rivers and the Chargers.  In a game where Los Angeles had a +2.4 Game Script, you’d expect a pretty average pass ratio.  Instead, L.A. passed on 74% of plays, the most of all 32 teams in week 3.  It is unusual that the team with the highest pass ratio in a week had a positive Game Script, but it’s hard to fault a team like the Chargers for passing a lot. Also worth noting: the two Chargers running backs, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, caught 11 of 11 targets for 51 yards (and 3 first downs), which … well, I’m not quite sure what to think about that. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts

In week 2, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Atlanta — with three high-profile quarterbacks — all went pass-happy. Arizona and Carolina — who also sport a pair of number one overall picks at quarterback, did the same. Cleveland dominated the Jets in a game that wasn’t really ever in doubt, and yet Baker Mayfield still wound up throwing on nearly two-thirds of all plays. In Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes was tasked to throw on over two-thirds of Chiefs plays, but hey – he’s Mahomes! The Falcons have Matt Ryan, and while he was inconsistent against the Eagles, Devonta Freeman rushed for just 22 yards on 11 carries. As a result, Atlanta threw on over 70% of its plays in a competitive game against Philadelphia, the highest pass ratio of any winning team in week two.

Meanwhile, Kyler Murray had 43 dropbacks and 3 rushing attempts against the Ravens, while RB David Johnson had just 7 carries. Arizona was trailing most of the way (-6.4 Game Script), but an 80% pass ratio is always going to stand out as pass-heavy.  Arizona and Kliff Kingsbury  had a similar Game Script in week 1 and threw on 72% of plays: it appears Arizona will not be easing into things for the number one overall pick. Finally, we have Carolina and Cam Newton, who is likely to miss week 3 with a lingering foot injury. Newton was obviously not at 100% in week 2 — he tied a career low with just 2 carries, and they gained 0 yards — and yet he tied a career high with 54 dropbacks! Christian McCaffrey (16 for 37) was not particularly effective on the ground, but this was a competitive game throughout. Normally, we suggest passing frequently in close games, but with an injured Newton, it’s fair to wonder if that was the right strategy.

The full week 2 Game Scripts below: [continue reading…]

The Game Scripts are back! As a reminder, a Game Script is simply the average score of a game over each second of play during the game. And if you are like me, as you watched the Dolphins/Ravens game unfold, you were wondering what would the final Game Script be from that massive blowout.

The Ravens took a 7-0 lead less than five minutes into the game, and that jumped to 14-0 before the 8-minute mark, 21-0 before the 11-minute mark, and 28-0 after just 16 minutes. Baltimore got the lead up to 42-10 at halftime, and scored three times in the second half to walk away with a 59-10 win. Over the course of the 3,600 seconds of this game, Baltimore’s average lead was 30.0 points.

That’s the best Game Script by a team since this Rams/Raiders blowout in 2014, a 52-0 win that registered a 30.9 Game Script. [continue reading…]

As regular readers know, I publish the Game Scripts data after each week of the regular season. Below are the results from each of the 10 playoff games so far:

[continue reading…]