Previously:

• • Week 1 Game Scripts
  • Week 2
  • Week 3
  • Week 4
  • Week 5
  • Week 6
  • Week 7
  • Week 8
  • Week 9
  • Week 10
  • Week 11
  • Week 12
  • Week 13
  • Week 14
  • Week 15
  • Week 16

Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott arrived in Dallas in 2016. Since then, the Cowboys have always been a run-heavy team, and Prescott has alternated between being a very efficient passer on minimal volume and an inconsistent quarterback who has hamstrung the offense. Dallas rarely relies on Prescott to throw often unless the game gets out of hand. The most pass-happy game for Dallas in the last three seasons was a 42-17 blowout loss to Denver, when the Cowboys passed on 79% of plays. And Dallas lost by double digits in all of the other pass-happy (for Dallas) games of the Prescott ere, including against Seattle, Tennessee, and Indianapolis this year, and in Atlanta last year.

That is, until week 17. The Cowboys were tied with the Giants after the first quarter, led by 7 at halftime, by 3 after 3 quarters, and won by 1 point. If you average the points differential at the end of each quarter — here, 0, 7, 3, 1 — you get a result of Dallas +2.8 points. And the Cowboys passed on 69% of all offensive plays.

That number is the second highest in any game of the last 3 years for the Cowboys, but it’s even more remarkable when you consider the context. Until this game, the most often Dallas had passed in a game where they had a positive average points differential after each quarter was 62%, against the Giants (in a game Dallas lost) in 2016.

The graph below shows all 48 games in the Prescott era. On the Y-Axis is the percentage of plays in which the Cowboys passed (plotted from 30% to 90%, since on average teams pass around 60% of the time). On the X-Axis is the average points differential after each quarter for that game. I have put in a gray diamond with a blue outline the Giants week 17, 2018 game, which stands out as a pretty clear outlier: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• • Week 1 Game Scripts
  • Week 2
  • Week 3
  • Week 4
  • Week 5
  • Week 6
  • Week 7
  • Week 8
  • Week 9
  • Week 10
  • Week 11
  • Week 12
  • Week 13
  • Week 14
  • Week 15

In week 16, both New York teams fell to superstar quarterbacks. The big comebacks of the week were engineered by Andrew Luck and the Colts against the Giants and Aaron Rodgers of the Packers against the Jets. The Giants led 14-0 after the first quarter, 17-7 at halftime, 24-21 after the third, and 27-21 with one minute to go, before Luck threw the game-winning touchdown pass. The Jets led the Packers 35-20 entering the 4th quarter, before the Packers scored on three straight drives to take a 38-35 lead. The Jets forced overtime, but the Packers scored a touchdown on the opening possession of OT, Green Bay’s third straight clutch drive that ended with a TD. The full Game Scripts below: [continue reading…]

I am short on time today, so no commentary: below are the week 15 Game Scripts.

Under Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have become the most run-heavy team in the NFL.  Against the Bucs, Gus Edwards had 19 carries, Jackson had 18 carries, and Kenneth Dixon had 10 carries. This in a game that was tight throughout: Baltimore finished with a Game Script of just +2.2, yet ran on 2 out of every 3 plays.

The New York Giants have not been very good this season: heading into week 14, the Giants were 4-8 and ranked 24th in points differential. But on Sunday, the Giants bludgeoned a Redskins team down to third-string quarterback Mark Sanchez, seven years after the Giants bewildered Sanchez in a season-saving victory that launched the team’s Super Bowl success.

The Giants had the best Game Script in week 14, while the Jets had the biggest Game Scripts comeback. The Jets trailed the Bills 17-6 in the 2nd quarter and 20-13 entering the 4th quarter, but came back to beat Buffalo 23-20. The full week 14 Game Scripts are below: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• • Week 1 Game Scripts
  • Week 2
  • Week 3
  • Week 4
  • Week 5
  • Week 6
  • Week 7
  • Week 8
  • Week 9
  • Week 10
  • Week 11
  • Week 12

I am short on time this week, so just a few notes:

The Chargers won with a -6.5 Game Script in Pittsburgh, while the Titans beat the Jets at home despite a -8.2 Game Script. The worst Game Script this year by a winning team was Green Bay at -9.3 in the season opener; the Titans game is the second lowest, followed by the Bears against the Cardinals in week 3, the Panthers in Philadelphia in week 7, and the Chargers/Steelers game. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• • Week 1 Game Scripts
  • Week 2
  • Week 3
  • Week 4
  • Week 5
  • Week 6
  • Week 7
  • Week 8
  • Week 9
  • Week 10
  • Week 11

Buffalo and Jacksonville played a remarkably run-heavy game in week 12. The two teams combined for 393 rushing yards and just 267 passing yards. That means 59.5% of the total yards in this game came on the ground, making it the first time in a non-December game since 2012 that such a high percentage of yards came on the ground. Josh Allen had 101 yards on the ground prior to kneels, and Blake Bortles added 39 yards rushing.  These are two of the best running quarterbacks in the league, although the Bortles experiment may be ending in Jacksonville.

If this is the end for Bortles, he won’t be remembered as one of the best running quarterbacks ever, but perhaps he should be. He’s one of just six players in NFL history to average over 6 yards per carry and 20 rushing yards per game in his career (minimum 200 carries): [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9
• Week 10

In week 11, the Ravens turned to Lamar Jackson, and responded with one of the most run-heavy games in recent memory. Baltimore rushed a whopping 54 times, the most in a non-overtime game since 2014. Jackson himself was responsible for half of those carries, 5 more than any player with at least five pass attempts in a game since 1950.

Not surprisingly, the Ravens dominated time of possession in this game, holding the ball for over 38 minutes. Jackson was an effective enough passer: he picked up a first down on 7 of 21 dropbacks, which is league average. We’ll see if this strategy can work for Baltimore once again — a quarterback running 15 times a week feels unsustainable, let alone 27 — but it certainly makes the Ravens more interesting.

Arizona and Jacksonville were your most run-heavy teams of the week. Leonard Fournette had 28 carries for the Jaguars, and the team rushed on 35.8% of all plays.  For the Cardinals, David Johnson had 25 carries, and Arizona had just 21 dropbacks, despite trailing for much of the second half.

The full week 11 Game Scripts below: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8
• Week 9

No time for commentary from me today, but here are the Week 10 Game Scripts.

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7

Houston, Seattle, and Indianapolis were your three most run-heavy teams of the week, in large part because their team’s quarterbacks were so darn efficient. The Seahawks had the best passer rating of week 8, followed by the Texans, the Raiders, and the Colts. Seattle was noticeably rush-heavy: yes, the Game Script was heavily in Seattle’s favor, but the Seahawks became the first team in 2018 to rush on over 68% of plays.

On the other side of things, the Jaguars and Giants were the three most pass-happy teams of week 8. Jacksonville, a week after trading for Carlos Hyde, passed on 72% of all plays in a tight game… and that includes Blake Bortles being responsible for 8 of the team’s 17 runs! Including sacks, pass attempts, and rushes, Bortles was the Jaguars guy on 53 of 62 plays, or 85.4% of all Jacksonville plays.

The full week 8 Game Scripts data, below: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6

Your most remarkable Game Scripts-related stat of the week comes from the Saints. If you knew that New Orleans trailed 17-7 after the third quarter, and that Drew Brees was healthy (and effective!), what would you expect the Saints pass ratio to be?

65% 75%? 80%?

Try 44%! New Orleans finished the day with 39 rushes against just 31 pass plays, a 44% pass ratio. How remarkable is that?

The last time the Saints trailed by 7 or more points entering the third quarter, and ran on 55% or more of their plays… was in 1983! In fact, when trailing by 7 or more through three quarters, the Saints have never rushed on 50% or more of their plays in the Drew Brees era! And this was a 10-point third quarter deficit!

In fact, since 2000, there have only been three games where New Orleans trailed by a touchdown entering the 4th quarter and finished the game with more rushes than pass plays:

• A meaningless week 17 game in the 2009 season, when Brees did not dress.

• A 2005 game against the Bears

• This 2004 game against Tampa Bay.

New Orleans finished with 12 passing first downs and 12 rushing first downs, the sort of balanced attack that has rarely been seen for the Saints. Even the ground game was balanced: Alvin Kamara had 4 rushing first downs, Brees had 3 (all on 3rd- or 4th-and-1), Taysom Hill had 3, and Mark Ingram had two.  Remarkably, New Orleans had four 4th-down conversions, and all four game on the ground.
[continue reading…]

Below is a scatter plot showing the Game Scripts (on the X-Axis) and pass ratio (on the Y-Axis) of every game so far this season. I have also provided a best-fit line:

[continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5

Entering week 6, the Cowboys had Game Scripts of -6.0 against the Panthers, +10.1 against the Giants, -7.8 against the Seahawks, +1.6 against Detroit, and +0.2 against the Texans.

Entering week 6, the Jaguars had Game Scripts of +3.6 against the Giants, +12.2 against New England, -1.5 against Tennessee, +8.2 against the Jets, and -13.7 against the Chiefs.

So color me surprised to see Jacksonville get throttled on Sunday against the Cowboys in Dallas, losing 40-7 and finishing with a -17.3 Game Script. It wasn’t quite a Vikings against the Bills level upset, but Jacksonville was a 3-point favorite; it is pretty unusual for a 3-point dog to lead by 21+ points at halftime and win by 30+ points; in fact, the last time it happened, the Jaguars were on the other side of things.

The full week 6 Game Scripts are below: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4

The Buffalo Bills got rid of Tyrod Taylor, spent a first round pick on a quarterback, and are somehow more run-heavy! In 2018, the Bills had the strongest rush identity in the NFL, in large part because of Taylor. Yet on Sunday, Buffalo produced the most run-heavy game of the year, rushing more than twice as often as passing in a 13-12 win against the Titans. The only time the Bills did that last year was in the snow storm against the Colts.  In week 5, Josh Allen had 20 dropbacks and gained just 78 yards; Allen rushed 4 times for 19 yards and a touchdown, LeSean McCoy had 24 carries for 85 yards, and Chris Ivory had 14 carries for 43 yards.

The most pass-happy team of the week is also the most pass-happy team from 2017: the New England Patriots. Against the Colts, the Patriots led 7-0 after 6 minutes, 14-0 after 18 minutes, 24-3 at halftime, and 38-17 midway through the 4th quarter. And yet Tom Brady finished the day with 44 pass attempts, while Patriots running backs had just 20 carries. This game was the 5th time in the last 10 years that the Patriots had 44+ pass attempts despite leading by 14+ at both halftime and the end of the game; over that same period, the rest of the NFL had done it just four times. That’s why New England — with the 4th-best Game Script of the week and the highest Pass Ratio of any team with a positive Game Script in week 5 — was the most pass-happy team of the week.

The full week 5 Game Scripts are below: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3

Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh all have franchise quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger are three of the nine quarterbacks with salary cap hits in excess of $23,000,000 in 2018. Perhaps, then, we shouldn’t be too surprised to see those three teams all choose to pass on over 75% of plays in week 4.

And it’s not like week 4 was an anomaly: these three teams lead the league in passing attempts (including sacks) per game so far in 2018. The Colts are averaging a whopping 51.2 passing plays per game (boosted by another pass-happy performance last night in week 5), the Vikings 50.5 passing plays per game, and the Steelers 48.75. The fourth-place team in this metric is Baltimore, and Joe Flacco is another one of the $23M salary cap hit club.

I noted in the offseason that you can break down the league’s 32 teams into a few simple buckets:

• Half of the league (including Indianapolis, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore) had a quarterback under a “franchise money” type contract

• 12 of the league’s teams are using quarterbacks on rookie contracts, including the Jets, Bills, Cardinals, and Browns who are now starting 2018 first round picks.

• 4 teams, all in the AFC, are stuck with veteran quarterbacks who don’t appear to be franchise quarterbacks. Of this group, Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles, and Andy Dalton are all playing well: their teams are all 3-1 and they have slightly above-average passing stats, which would count as exceeding expectations. The fourth player is Case Keenum, and you can make the case that the Broncos are the only team that doesn’t have its 2019 quarterback already on its roster. In other words, 16 teams have a franchise quarterback (or a quarterback with a franchise quarterback salary), 12 teams have a quarterback on a rookie contract and at least some optimism for a long-term future (with perhaps Tampa Bay and Dallas being the sole exceptions), and 3 teams have a middling option who is actually playing pretty well.

The full week 4 Game Scripts data below: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 (2018) Game Scripts
• Week 2 (2018) Game Scripts

The Buffalo Bills pulled off one of the most remarkable upsets in NFL history in week 3, beating the heavily-favored Vikings 27-6. That game was notable for a lot of reasons on the Bills side, but here’s something interesting on the Minnesota side: the Vikings had just six rushing attempts all game, including just one in each of the final three quarters of the game. Minnesota running backs finished the day with just four carries:

The Vikings had 59 passing plays, on the other hand, which means over 90% of all Minnesota plays in week 3 were passing plays (in fact, the two Cousins runs were one scramble and one fumbled snap, so the Vikings ended the day with only four designed running plays). How remarkable is that? Well, it’s the first time in the history of the NFL that it’s happened! The Vikings ran on just 9.2% of all plays (again, generously counting the two Cousins runs as running plays), breaking the previously low of 10.3%, set by the Cardinals against the… 2006 Vikings.

Also super pass-happy in week 3: the Indianapolis Colts, despite (or because?) Andrew Luck setting a career low in yards per completion.  The Colts-Eagles game was tied after the 1st and 3rd quarters, with Philadelphia holding just a 3-point lead at halftime.  In other words, this was a really close game…. and yet Indianapolis passed on 77% of its plays!  That is quite unusual, and represents an extremely pass-happy game (albeit one where the passes were mostly short passes that operated as runs).

The full week 3 Game Scripts data: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 (2018) Game Scripts

In week 2, the two best Game Scripts belonged to the two Los Angeles. The Rams blanked the Cardinals 34-0 in the most lopsided game of the week. Arizona was never competitive, and Los Angeles outgained Arizona 432-137, and won the first down battle 24-5. Buffalo didn’t fare much better against the Chargers, falling behind 21-3 after 20 minutes, and trailing by 15+ points for all of the second half until the final minute. This is a good example of how Game Script can tell a more accurate story of a game than the final score: both of these games were blowouts, but the Chargers won by “only” 11 points.

The Titans were the league’s most run-heavy team of the week. Blaine Gabbert threw just 20 passes (he had a sack, and two non-QBs threw a pass for Tennessee), an extremely low number given that Tennessee actually trailed in the 4th quarter of this game. But the Titans were happy to ride Derrick Henry (18 carries) and Dion Lewis (14 carries). Did it work? Not really — neither Gabbert no the running backs were particularly effective. Tennessee won the game on special teams, with a touchdown, winning the time of possession battle, and Houston missing a field goal.

The table below shows the full week 2 Game Scripts data: [continue reading…]

The Game Scripts are back! Below are the Game Scripts from week 1:

[continue reading…]

On Friday, I looked at each team’s offensive pass identity. Today, the reverse: a look at defensive pass identities.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the best teams in the NFL last year. Jacksonville had the 3rd-best points differential in the NFL in 2017 after 1 quarter (+41), the 5th-best after 2 quarters (+86), the 4th-best through 3 quarters (+109), and tied for the 3rd-best points differential overall. Unsurprisingly, Jacksonville had the 4th best average Game Script last season, which means you should expect the Jaguars to be run-heavy and Jacksonville’s opponents to be pass-heavy.

On the offensive side, things held to form: Jacksonville rushed on 49.4% of plays, the highest ratio in the NFL last season. But on defense, that wasn’t the case: teams passed on only 56.4% of plays against the Jaguars last year! Consider that opponents passed on 65.4% and 62.3% of plays against the Eagles and Vikings, teams that finished 3rd and 5th in Game Script last season.

On the other side, the Tennessee Titans.  Last season, the Titans were an average team, finishing with a slightly negative Game Script. And yet teams passed on them like they were the Patriots! In fact, opponents passed against New England on 61.6% of plays and against the Titans on 61.7% of plays.  The Titans Game Script was 0.27 standard deviations below average, while the opponent pass ratio was 1.42 standard deviations above average. As a result, the Titans have a Defensive Pass Identity of +1.69, making them the defense teams were most likely to pass against. [continue reading…]

In June, I published the Game Scripts results from every game of the 2017 season. A team’s Game Script is simply the average points differential over every second of every game. The largest Game Script of the season came in the Rams/Seahawks game in Seattle last year that the Rams won by a score of 42-7. Just as impressive as the final score was how Los Angeles got up on Seattle early, which is how a team gets a very high Game Script: LA was up 13-0 after the first quarter and 34-0 at halftime, and finished with a Game Script of +23.4. This means, on average, the Rams lead by 23.4 points over the course of the 3600 seconds in that game.

Not surprisingly, LA only passed on 36.8% of plays in that game. In general, as Game Script goes up, Pass Ratios go down. In 2017, for every point of Game Script, a team would be expected to pass about 0.72% less often. A team with a Game Script of 0 would be expected to pass on 57.6% of plays; if the Game Script was -10, it would be expected to pass on 64.8% of plays, at -5, 61.2%, at +5, 54.0%, and at +10, 50.4%.

Last year, the Dolphins were the most pass-happy team in the NFL. Miami finished the year with 602 pass attempts, 33 sacks, and just 360 runs; in other words, the Dolphins passed on 63.8% of all plays last year. If you take the calculate the average pass ratio for the Dolphins in each game, Miami has a 63.9% pass ratio (I have decided to use an average of the average approach for this post, rather than an average of the gross). That was 1.74 standard deviations above average last year, since the average pass ratio was 57.6% and the standard deviation was 3.6%. However, the Dolphins had an average Game Script of -5.27, which was 1.65 standard deviations below average. The average Game Script, by definition, is 0, and the standard deviation last year was 3.20.

So Miami wasn’t particularly pass-happy once you account for Game Script. But you know who was? The team with the Hall of Fame quarterback, Hall of Fame tight end, and star young wide receiver. And in addition to Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Brandin Cooks, three of New England’s top four running backs are known just as much (if not more) for their receiving prowess than their rushing ability: Dion Lewis, who caught 91% of his targets last year, Rex Burkhead, who had 264 rushing yards and 254 receiving yards, and James White, who had 56 receptions and just 43 carries.

By traditional numbers, New England ranked 16th in the league in pass ratio. But the Patriots are the Patriots, a team that generally plays with the lead. New England finished the year with a Game Script that was +1.66 standard deviations above average and a pass ratio that was 0.29 standard deviations above average. Add those two numbers, and New England’s Pass Identity was +1.95, easily the strongest in the league. The table below shows the results from every team last season. [continue reading…]

There are 256 regular season games each year, plus 11 postseason games, for a total of 267 NFL games per season. This means there are 534 team games each year, which means 534 different Game Scripts and 534 different pass ratios. Here’s a graph of all pass ratios (on the Y-Axis) from 2017, marked against Game Scripts (on the X-Axis).  As you can see, as a team’s Game Script improves, its pass ratio tends to decrease.

[continue reading…]

Today we are going to look at the Game Scripts from the 11 games in the 2017 playoffs. There were two big blowouts in the postseason: the Eagles over the Vikings in the NFCCG and the Patriots over the Titans in the division round. Both teams won by over 20 points and had Game Scripts of over +10. But there were two other games that were very close but with blowout Game Scripts: in other words, two games that almost saw miraculous comebacks.

The Jaguars beat the Steelers with a Game Script of +10.6. Jacksonville led 21-0 early in the 2nd quarter and 28-7 late in the first half. But Pittsburgh scored 5 touchdowns on the team’s final 7 drives of the game, ultimately falling 45-42.

The Vikings led the Saints 17-0 just 20 minutes into the division round game, and that score held with just 17 minutes left in the game. From there, New Orleans staged a furious comeback, scoring 24 points in 16-minute stretch to take a 24-23 lead. This was one of the most miraculous comebacks in playoff history, but it was upstaged by an even more miraculous comeback by the Vikings just seconds later.

The full Game Scripts data from the playoffs, below: [continue reading…]

The end of 2017 was a pretty busy time for me, so I stopped the game scripts data after week 15. Under the philosophy of late than never… [continue reading…]

In week 3, the Jaguars blew out the Ravens in London, 44-7, producing a Game Script of 22.6. That was the biggest Game script of the season, until week 15. On Sunday, the Rams destroyed the Seahawks, 42-7 in a game that was over at halftime. Los Angeles seven first half drives ended as follows: field goal, field goal, touchdown, interception, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. Seattle’s first half drives ended as follows: fumble, punt, punt, punt, punt, fumble, punt, end of half.

The Rams recorded the biggest Game Script of the season at +23.4, but Los Angeles wasn’t alone. The third and fourth biggest Game Scripts of the season also came on Sunday. The Jaguars, again, were the big rollers: Jacksonville beat Houston 45-7 and recorded a Game Script of +21.7, thanks to jumping out to a 31-0 halftime lead. And Minnesota took a 24-0 lead into the locker room against Cincinnati, and a 34-0 lead before finally winning 34-7. The Vikings posted a Game Script of +20.9, one of just six games this year with a Game Script of +20.0.

The full Game Scripts from week 15, below: [continue reading…]

There have been 208 games so far this season. Prior to week 14, the Chicago Bears, in a 27-24 win over Baltimore, had the lowest pass ratio of any team in a game at 27.6% (21 passes, 55 runs). Playing in the snow in Buffalo, the Bills rushed 51 times against 16 pass plays, for a 23.9% pass ratio. That’s the lowest pass ratio since a Monday Night Football game in 2014, when the Jets went back to Geno Smith as quarterback and basically didn’t let him throw the ball unless he had to. In modern times, teams just don’t run on 76% of their plays: the only other game since 2010 where that happened involved Tim Tebow, of course.

But wait, there’s more. The Colts ran on two-thirds of their plays, easily the lowest pass ratio of any team that lost its game this year; no other team had passed on fewer than 47 percent of its plays and lost. This was the most run-heavy game of the year and it wasn’t particularly close.

In fact, this was the most run-heavy game since the 2006 game between the Falcons and Panthers where Carolina rolled out a Wildcat offense with Jake Delhomme sidelined and starting QB Chris Weinke playing with a bum shoulder, the Panthers and Falcons combined for 71 rushing attempts and just 27 passes (plus six sacks). But the combined 97 runs for the Bills and Colts (helped by 15 overtime runs) was the most in a game since 1981 between the Chiefs and Bears that also went to overtime and was played in cold and wet conditions. The full week 14 Game Scripts, below: [continue reading…]

In week 13, the Cowboys, Packers, and Jets were run-happy teams, finishing with the three most run-oriented play ratios of the week. After accounting for Game Script, the Jets were really run-heavy: New York finished with a negative Game Script but finished with 49 runs! The Jets finished tied for the most rushing attempts since 1983 in a game (excluding OT) where the opponent scored 30+ points. The other time? The remarkable Jerome Harrison/Josh Cribbs game against the Chiefs from 2009, which I wrote about at the time.

The Cowboys finished with 23 pass plays and 42 runs in a blowout win over the Redskins. Dallas led most of the way against Washington, and the Cowboys are happy to institute a run-heavy plan whenever the Game Script allows.

The Packers led early against the Bucs, but Tampa Bay took a 4th quarter lead and the game went deep into overtime. Brett Hundley had 24 dropbacks, while Packers running backs had 22 carries and Hundley himself had 7 carries. The main reason for the run-heavy game plan? Hundley was a disaster throwing the ball, gaining 77 net yards on those 24 dropbacks with an interception. Since 1979, the Packers have won just one other game with so few passing yards: this disaster of a game in 1991 against the 1-10 Colts.

The full week 13 Game Scripts below: [continue reading…]

The Eagles and the Rams were the two most pass-happy teams of week 12. For Philadelphia, Carson Wentz (and Nick Foles) still had 40 dropbacks in a blowout against the Bears; Eagles running backs combined for only 24 carries despite the game being out of reach for most of the day. Philadelphia had the largest Game Script of the week and also the 5th most pass-happy performance among the 16 winning teams.

In Los Angeles, Jared Goff and the Rams had the most pass attempts and the highest pass ratio of any winning team in week 12; this despite a +7.0 Game Script. This was likely because Goff and the passing attack was very successful, in part because the Saints were down their starting two cornerbacks.

The full week 12 Game Scripts below: [continue reading…]

As it turns out, having Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady causes teams to be pretty pass-happy.

In week 11, the Steelers, Chargers, and Patriots all were very pass-happy. Pittsburgh passed on 70 of its plays despite blowing out the Titans, winning by 23 points with a +8.8 Game Script. The Chargers had the biggest Game Script of the week at +20.1, but still passed more often than they ran. There have only been 22 games in history where a team led by 28 points after 2 quarters and after 3 quarters and passed more often than they ran; the last 11 prior to this game all featured Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Speaking of Hall of Fame quarterbacks, the Patriots just became the 4th team to pass on over 65% of plays despite leading by 14+ at halftime and 28+ after three quarters, and one of those teams was the 1999 Panthers in week 17 who kept passing to attempt to run up the score to make the playoffs.

The full week 11 Game Scripts below: [continue reading…]

Let’s get to the week 9 Game scripts! Yes, these are a week late: my apologies, as well, other topics wound up being covered last week.

The biggest stories of week 9 were the blowout wins by Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. The Rams and Saints followed that up with another pair of blowout wins in week 10, while the Eagles were on bye. But before turning to week 10, let’s review some of the biggest outliers from week nine.

In week 9, the Jets and Panthers were very run-heavy. Lest you forget, the Jets beat the Bills on Thursday night in week 9, and while quarterback Josh McCown did have 5 carries, the running backs combined for 36 carries, while McCown had just 21 attempts. The Jets blew out Buffalo, but consider that the Lions had a similar Game Script and passes on 50% of plays.

Carolina beat Atlanta in a close game where the Panthers trailed for most of the first half. Still, behind Cam Newton and his 9 carries, Carolina wound up passing just 25 times while running 38 times! That’s really run-heavy.

The full Game Scripts data below: [continue reading…]

Let’s get to the week 8 Game scripts! The Raiders and Redskins stood out as pass-happy this week, as Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins kept passing in losing efforts. They were the two most pass-happy teams without accounting for Game Scripts in week 8, at 78% (Oakland) and 74% (Washington), respectively. But even after accounting for Game Script, both team’s pass-heavy nature stands out.

The Washington-Dallas game was competitive most of the way, but Cousins had 43 dropbacks while the team had just 15 rushing attempts.  Meanwhile, the Raiders called 49 pass plays against just 15 rushing plays, although that may have been due to Marshawn Lynch being suspended and both backup running backs underwhelming. This was just the second time in the last five years the Raiders passed on 77% of more of their plays. 

The full Game Scripts data from week 8, below: [continue reading…]