by Chase Stuart
on January 27, 2020
During the regular season, Jimmy Garoppolo had 143 pass plays on third down. On 13 of those pass plays, he took a sack. On the other 130 third down pass plays, Garoppolo gained a first down on exactly half of them. On Saturday, commenter LightsOut85 pointed out that he thought Garoppolo’s great third down performance was “more an indicator of SF’s offensive scheme (namely YAC) than his passing ability.”
Is that true? I decided to investigate. Of Garoppolo’s 130 third down pass plays that were not sacks:
-
- 41 of them (31.5%) were thrown at or beyond the first down marker (i.e., past the sticks) and completed for a first down.
- 30 of them (23.1%) were thrown past the sticks but fell incomplete.
- 24 of them (18.5%) were thrown short of the sticks but still picked up a first down (this is the category LightsOut85 was focused on).
- 35 of them (26.9%) were thrown short of the sticks and did not pick up a first down.
The graph below shows each of his 130 pass attempts. It is color-coded to make it easier to read, but let’s explain. The X-Axis shows the distance — i.e., it was 3rd-and-X. The Y-Axis shows the amount of air yards for the throw. For example, at the top right, you will see a 3rd-and-16 pass that went for 41 air yards, which was one of the more memorable plays of the 49ers season.
If the pass was thrown at or beyond the sticks, the bubble is blue. If it was converted for a first down, the dot is fully colored in blue; if it was not, it is a white bubble with a blue outline. If the pass was thrown short of the sticks, the bubble is red. If it was converted for a first down, the dot is fully colored in red; if it was not, it is a white bubble with a red outline. [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Jimmy Garoppolo
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by Chase Stuart
on January 24, 2020
In 2018, in an article about the weird 2017 season that Jameis Winston had (if I only knew what the future would hold!), there was one tidbit you might have missed: in 2017 season, Jimmy Garoppolo had the best 3rd down conversion rate in the league. After being traded to the 49ers in midseason, Garoppolo picked up a first down on exactly half of his dropbacks (28 of 56).
Garoppolo did not repeat this success in limited playing time in 2018 (6 of 24); you won’t be surprised to learn that Patrick Mahomes (48%) led the NFL in this metric last season. [continue reading…]
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Jimmy Garoppolo,
Super Bowl LIV
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by Chase Stuart
on February 10, 2018
The San Francisco 49ers ranked just 27th in red zone offense in 2017, converting only 47% of opportunities into touchdowns. Given the hype around Jimmy Garoppolo, you might think San Francisco was much better during his time, but that’s not true. In fact, the 49ers converted 13 of 27 red zone opportunities into touchdowns during the first twelve weeks (the non-Jimmy G weeks), a 48% rate; that dropped to 11 of 24, or 46%, during Garoppolo’s time as a starter.
That…. was about the only bad thing that happened during the short but brilliant Garoppolo era. San Francisco went 5-0 with Jimmy G and 1-10 without him, making him +4.54 wins over the other quarterbacks; That’s one of the top four marks ever, alongside Marc Bulger on the 2002 Rams (6-1 with, 1-8 without), Vince Young on the 2009 Titans (8-2 with, 0-6 without), and Mike Phipps on the 1979 Bears (9-1 with, 1-5 without).
With Garoppolo, San Francisco’s offense averaged 41.2 yards per drive. The NFL average last year was 30.1 yards, and the Patriots led the NFL at 39.2 yards per drive over the course of the full season. San Francisco scored touchdowns at a rate well above average with Garoppolo under center (24% of all drives, compared to a league average rate of 20%; the Patriots led at 29.7%), but where the 49ers really shined was in kicking field goals. Remarkably, over the final five weeks of the season, San Francisco and Robbie Gould kicked (and made) 18 field goals; over the first 11 games, Gould attempted just 23 field goals! A whopping 36% of all 49ers drives under Garoppolo ended in a field goal attempt (all of which were successful):
[continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Jimmy Garoppolo
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by Chase Stuart
on December 21, 2017
Jimmy Garoppolo is now 5-0 as a starter for the Patriots and 49ers. This, despite being an underdog in 3 of his first 5 starts:
|
Vegas |
| Rk |
Tm |
Year |
Date
▲ |
Time |
LTime |
|
Opp |
Week |
G# |
Day |
Result |
OT |
Spread |
vs. Line |
Over/Under |
OU Result |
| 1 |
NWE |
2016 |
2016-09-11 |
8:30 |
5:30 |
@ |
ARI |
1 |
1 |
Sun |
W 23-21 |
|
9.0 |
covered |
44.5 |
under |
| 2 |
NWE |
2016 |
2016-09-18 |
1:02 |
1:02 |
|
MIA |
2 |
2 |
Sun |
W 31-24 |
|
-5.5 |
covered |
42.0 |
over |
| 12 |
SFO |
2017 |
2017-12-03 |
1:00 |
12:00 |
@ |
CHI |
13 |
12 |
Sun |
W 15-14 |
|
2.5 |
covered |
42.0 |
under |
| 13 |
SFO |
2017 |
2017-12-10 |
1:00 |
12:00 |
@ |
HOU |
14 |
13 |
Sun |
W 26-16 |
|
1.0 |
covered |
45.5 |
under |
| 14 |
SFO |
2017 |
2017-12-17 |
4:25 |
1:25 |
|
TEN |
15 |
14 |
Sun |
W 25-23 |
|
-2.5 |
not covered |
44.5 |
over |
[continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Jimmy Garoppolo
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