In the summer of 2009, I wrote a three-part series analyzing every kicker of the last half-century (here are the links to Part I, Part II, Part III). What I did there was analyzed field goal attempts by distance, and then credited a kicker for how many field goals he made over the expected number of successful field goals from each distance.

For example, field goal kickers this year have made 15 of 23 attempts from exactly 50 yards. ^[1]There is some bias in the data in that only the best distance kickers attempts long field goals, but dealing with that is best left for another day. If we assume that 50-yard kicks are successful 65% of the time, then a made 50-yarder will be worth +0.35 field goals and a missed 50-yarder will be worth -0.65 field goals.

To smooth the data, I used kicks from 2005 to 2011, and I also grouped field goals into four-yard increments. In the off-season, I plan to incorporate stadium, temperature, and other weather effects, but for now, I’ve ignored the (often large) role such elements can play.

The table below shows how many field goals over expectation each kicker made through week 15. I also included a column for extra points, and the final column shows how many points over average each kicker provided, giving them 3 points for each field goal and one point for each extra point over average:

Rk	Name	Tm	FG M	FG A	FG %	EXP FG Made	FG Ov AVG	XP M	XP A	XP Ov Avg	Points Ov Avg
1	Justin Tucker	BAL	25	27	92.6%	20.7	4.3	37	37	0.2	13.1
2	Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	29	32	90.6%	24.7	4.3	22	22	0.1	12.9
3	Blair Walsh	MIN	29	32	90.6%	25.1	3.9	30	30	0.2	11.8
4	Shaun Suisham	PIT	26	27	96.3%	22.4	3.6	30	30	0.2	10.8
5	Phil Dawson	CLE	26	27	96.3%	22.5	3.5	28	28	0.2	10.6
6	Kai Forbath	WAS	15	15	100%	11.5	3.5	26	27	-0.8	9.6
7	Dan Bailey	DAL	27	29	93.1%	24	3	32	32	0.2	9.3
8	Jason Hanson	DET	28	32	87.5%	25.1	2.9	34	34	0.2	8.8
9	Connor Barth	TAM	23	28	82.1%	20.5	2.5	37	37	0.2	7.7
10	Greg Zuerlein	STL	21	29	72.4%	18.7	2.3	21	21	0.1	7.1
11	Jay Feely	ARI	21	24	87.5%	18.8	2.2	23	23	0.1	6.8
12	Josh Scobee	JAX	22	24	91.7%	19.6	2.4	15	16	-0.9	6.2
13	Matt Bryant	ATL	31	36	86.1%	29.3	1.7	38	38	0.2	5.4
14	Rian Lindell	BUF	20	21	95.2%	18.3	1.7	34	34	0.2	5.2
15	Nick Novak	SDG	15	17	88.2%	13.6	1.4	27	27	0.2	4.2
16	Alex Henery	PHI	25	28	89.3%	23.5	1.5	22	23	-0.9	3.7
17	Dan Carpenter	MIA	22	27	81.5%	21.2	0.8	26	26	0.1	2.6
18	Ryan Succop	KAN	25	29	86.2%	24.2	0.8	16	16	0.1	2.4
19	Nate Kaeding	SDG	7	7	100%	6.2	0.8	6	6	0	2.4
20	Josh Brown	CIN	6	6	100%	5.3	0.7	5	5	0	2.2
21	Robbie Gould	CHI	21	25	84%	20.5	0.5	33	33	0.2	1.8
22	Steven Hauschka	SEA	22	25	88%	20.9	1.1	38	40	-1.8	1.4
23	Mike Nugent	CIN	19	23	82.6%	18.6	0.4	35	35	0.2	1.3
24	Olindo Mare	CHI	2	2	100%	1.8	0.2	1	1	0	0.5
25	Graham Gano	CAR	5	5	100%	4.6	0.4	13	14	-0.9	0.3
26	Garrett Hartley	NOR	15	18	83.3%	15.1	-0.1	48	48	0.3	0.1
27	Lawrence Tynes	NYG	33	39	84.6%	33.1	-0.1	38	38	0.2	-0.2
28	Stephen Gostkowski	NWE	26	32	81.3%	26.2	-0.2	60	60	0.3	-0.3
29	Shayne Graham	HOU	26	32	81.3%	26.2	-0.2	44	44	0.2	-0.5
30	Adam Vinatieri	IND	24	31	77.4%	24.2	-0.2	31	31	0.2	-0.5
31	Matt Prater	DEN	23	29	79.3%	23.8	-0.8	46	46	0.3	-2.2
32	Nick Folk	NYJ	17	22	77.3%	17.8	-0.8	28	28	0.2	-2.3
33	Rob Bironas	TEN	24	30	80%	24.9	-0.9	29	29	0.2	-2.4
34	Justin Medlock	CAR	7	10	70%	8.3	-1.3	23	23	0.1	-3.9
35	Billy Cundiff	WAS	7	12	58.3%	9.3	-2.3	17	17	0.1	-6.7
36	David Akers	SFO	25	35	71.4%	28.2	-3.2	40	40	0.2	-9.5
37	Mason Crosby	GNB	17	29	58.6%	21.3	-4.3	39	39	0.2	-12.8

So Justin Tucker and Sebastian Janikowski have been the most valuable kickers this year — no surprise there, although Tucker is far from a household name. The worst two kickers won’t shock anyone who has watched much of the Packers or 49ers this year, as David Akers and especially Mason Crosby have been constant sources of frustration for their fans.

I’ll note that I am counting blocked field goals just like a regular miss. When I previewed the list to my brother, he was surprised to see Folk ranking 32nd, since he only missed five field goals. Well, two of them were blocked; if you removed those (and blamed them on the line instead of a low trajectory), he would be 17th (although in this one, I am only removing blocks for Folk). I’d also note that two of his other 3 misses hit the uprights, so I’m not surprised to see my brother (or any Jets fan) surprised to see Folk 32nd.

What if we look at expected field goals over average by distance?

Rk	Name	Tm	19to22	23to26	27to30	31to34	35to38	39to42	43to46	47to50	51to54	55to58	59to62	63to66	FG Ov Avg
1	Justin Tucker	BAL	0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0	1.6	0.1	1.4	0.6	0	0	4.3
2	Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.7	0.8	1.2	-0.3	-0.2	4.3
3	Blair Walsh	MIN	0	0.1	-0.8	0.1	0.7	0	-0.7	1.1	2.3	1.2	0	0	3.9
4	Shaun Suisham	PIT	0.1	0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.8	0.8	1.1	-0.1	0	0	0	3.6
6	Kai Forbath	WAS	0	0.1	0	0.2	0	0	1.1	2.2	0	0	0	0	3.5
5	Phil Dawson	CLE	0	0.1	-0.8	0.4	0.4	1	0.3	0.7	1.4	0	0	0	3.5
7	Dan Bailey	DAL	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.7	-0.2	0	0	0	3
8	Jason Hanson	DET	0	0	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.6	1.4	-0.2	0.4	0	0	0	2.9
9	Connor Barth	TAM	0	0	0.1	0.1	-0.6	0.2	0.5	1.4	0.4	0.3	0	0	2.5
12	Josh Scobee	JAX	0.1	0.1	0	0.3	0.4	0.8	0.1	1.1	0	-0.4	0	0	2.4
10	Greg Zuerlein	STL	0	0	0.1	0.2	-1.7	0.4	0.8	1.4	0.8	-0.1	0.7	-0.3	2.3
11	Jay Feely	ARI	0	0	0.2	0.2	-0.3	-0.8	0.3	1.5	0.5	0	0.7	0	2.2
13	Matt Bryant	ATL	-0.9	0	0.2	0.3	-0.3	1	-0.4	-0.3	0.9	1.2	0	0	1.7
14	Rian Lindell	BUF	0	0	0	0.5	-0.5	1.2	0	0.4	0	0	0	0	1.7
16	Alex Henery	PHI	0.1	0.1	0	-0.7	0.5	1.2	0.1	0.7	0	-0.4	0	0	1.5
15	Nick Novak	SDG	0.1	0.1	0	0.3	0	0.2	0.5	0.7	-0.1	-0.4	0	0	1.4
22	Steven Hauschka	SEA	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3	-0.3	-0.1	0	-0.3	0	1.1
17	Dan Carpenter	MIA	0	0	0.1	0.4	0.1	1.4	0.8	-1.9	-0.2	0	0	0	0.8
19	Nate Kaeding	SDG	0	0.1	0	0	0	0.4	0.3	0	0	0	0	0	0.8
18	Ryan Succop	KAN	0	0	-0.9	-0.3	0.3	-0.8	0.8	0.7	0.9	0	0	0	0.8
20	Josh Brown	CIN	0	0.1	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	0.5	0	0	0	0.7
21	Robbie Gould	CHI	0.1	0.1	0	-0.7	0.3	-0.2	1.1	-0.9	0.9	0	0	0	0.5
25	Graham Gano	CAR	0	0.1	0	0.2	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.4
23	Mike Nugent	CIN	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	-0.2	-0.5	-0.2	0	0.6	0	0	0.4
24	Olindo Mare	CHI	0	0	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2
26	Garrett Hartley	NOR	0.1	0.1	0	0.2	-0.7	0.2	0	-0.3	0.4	0	0	0	-0.1
27	Lawrence Tynes	NYG	0	0.2	-0.7	0.3	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	1.1	-1.1	0	0	0	-0.1
28	Stephen Gostkowski	NWE	0	0.1	0.1	0.4	-0.5	-2.2	1.1	-0.2	0.9	0	0	0	-0.2
30	Adam Vinatieri	IND	0.1	0.1	0	0.1	-2.3	0.4	0.8	1.2	-0.2	-0.4	0	0	-0.2
29	Shayne Graham	HOU	0.1	0	0.2	0.4	0.4	1	-0.2	-1.6	-0.6	0	0	0	-0.2
31	Matt Prater	DEN	0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.2	0.1	0	-0.6	-1.3	1.4	-0.4	0	0	-0.8
32	Nick Folk	NYJ	0.1	-0.9	0	0.3	-0.6	0.2	-0.6	0	0.8	0	0	0	-0.8
33	Rob Bironas	TEN	0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.8	-0.4	-1.5	-0.3	0.5	-0.4	0	0	-0.9
34	Justin Medlock	CAR	0	0	0	0.3	0	-0.8	-0.2	-0.6	0	0	0	0	-1.3
35	Billy Cundiff	WAS	0	0	0	-1.8	0.4	-0.4	0.3	0	0	-0.4	-0.3	0	-2.3
36	David Akers	SFO	0	0	0.3	-0.6	0.7	-1.8	-0.9	-0.3	-1.1	-0.4	0	0.8	-3.2
37	Mason Crosby	GNB	0	0.1	0.1	-0.7	-0.7	-0.2	-1.5	1.2	-1.7	-0.8	0	0	-4.3

Greg Zuerlein — or Greg the Leg, Young GZ, or Legatron, if you prefer — has cooled off since his hot start. He’s hit 3 of the successful field goals from 56+ yards this season, but all three came in September. Mason Crosby comes out as the worst kicker, and some have defended him because he’s mostly missed long field goals. While that’s somewhat true, this metric adjusts for distance, so he’s struggling even when you consider the difficulty of the kick.

Crosby is 1 for 8 when attempting field goals from 50+ yards, but the average kicker would have been successful on 4.2 field goals. He’s also missed from 32, 38, 42, 43, and 44 yards, and comes out as the worst kicker in the 43-to-46 range. David Akers tied an NFL record with a 63-yarder this year, but otherwise, he’s had a rough season. He’s missed six field goals from inside of 43 yards.