Norv Turner

Predictions in Review: AFC North

by Chase Stuart on March 11, 2014

During the 2013 offseason, I wrote 32 articles under the RPO 2013 tag. In my Predictions in Review series, I review those preview articles with the benefit of hindsight. Previously, I reviewed the AFC West, the NFC West, the the AFC South, and the NFC South. Today, the AFC North.

Marvin Lewis, Jim Mora, and the Playoffs, May 30, 2013

In this article, I noted that Marvin Lewis had coached the Bengals for ten seasons without recording a playoff victory. That was pretty unique: Since 1966, only Jim Mora had coached a team for longer without notching a playoff victory, and he was fired by the New Orleans Saints in his 11th year after a 2-6 start. Well, Lewis now stands alone in the Super Bowl era, as the only coach to fail to record a playoff win in 11 straight seasons and then be brought back for season twelve.

Since I wrote that article, though, I’ve become much more sympathetic to Lewis. For years, it was easy to take pot shots at his ridiculous use of challenges or his failure to be aggressive when the situation warranted it, but I now think Lewis is one of the better coaches in the league. He seems to have a knack for connecting with his players, he’s surrounded himself with very good coaches, and you get the sense that he has more on his plate organizationally than the typical head coach. He’s the de facto GM, unless you consider Mike Brown the real man building the franchise. And he’s developed one of the most talented rosters in the league, even if Andy Dalton turns into a pumpkin every January.

Of course, that is just cold comfort to Bengals fans who have witnessed the team go 0-11 in the Lewis era when it comes to recording a playoff victory. On the other hand, Cincinnati didn’t win a playoff game in any of the 12 seasons immediately preceding the Lewis hire, either. But Lewis’ streak is particularly notable for just how rare his tenure has been in today’s environment. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Ben Roethlisberger, Bengals, Browns, Josh Gordon, Marvin Lewis, Norv Turner, Predictions In Review 2013, Ravens, Steelers

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What does Norv Turner mean for Josh Gordon?

by Chase Stuart on May 31, 2013

in Coaches, Random Perspective On, Receiving, Statgeekery

Turner describing a route. I think.

With Norv Turner, you know what you’re going to get. Turner was fired in San Diego after the Chargers failed to make the playoffs in each of the last three years, but as usual, Turner was able to find a nice landing spot. He’ll be the Browns offensive coordinator in 2013, which will mark his 29th straight year in the NFL. Turner started as a receivers coach with the Rams in 1985 and hasn’t been out of work for very long ever since.

And while he has a reputation for having great running games, he also has habit of sending his receivers down the field. That’s no accident. Ernie Zampese, a longtime assistant under Don Coryell, became the Rams offensive coordinator in 1987, and Turner’s teams have been running a variation of the vertical Coryell/Zampese system ever since.

I ranked all players (minimum 500 receiving yards) in yards per reception in each year since Turner was united with Zampese in ’87. In six of those seasons, one of five different Turner receivers led the NFL in yards per reception. In addition, Turner’s top receiver (in terms of YPR) finished in the top five in that metric thirteen more times. The table below shows the rank of the highest-ranked receiver (in terms of YPR) in Turner’s offense in each of the last 26 years.
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Tagged as: Browns, Josh Gordon, Norv Turner, RPO 2013

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How much does Philip Rivers’ decline have to do with Philip Rivers?

by Chase Stuart on October 29, 2012

in Passing, Statistics

For years, I was an unabashed Philip Rivers supporter. I had no preexisting affinity for the Chargers or Rivers, but in all the metrics I care about, Rivers was always one of the best. In 2008, 2009, and 2010, Philip Rivers led the league in yards per attempt. He finished first in ANY/A in ’08 and second in ’09 and ’10; he finished second in NY/A in ’08 and then first in NY/A in 2009 and 2010. Simply put, going into the 2011 season, no quarterback had been better over the last three years.

Rank	Player	Tm	Gms	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Y/A	SkYds	AY/A	ANY/A	Y/G
1	Philip Rivers	SDG	48	986	1505	65.5%	12973	92	33	103.8	88	8.62	545	8.86	8.02	270.3
2	Tom Brady	NWE	33	702	1068	65.7%	8374	64	17	102.9	41	7.84	261	8.32	7.78	253.8
3	Drew Brees	NOR	47	1224	1807	67.7%	14077	101	50	98.1	58	7.79	412	7.66	7.20	299.5
4	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	47	1003	1552	64.6%	12394	86	31	99.4	115	7.99	730	8.20	7.19	263.7
5	Tony Romo	DAL	35	771	1213	63.6%	9536	63	30	94.8	61	7.86	360	7.79	7.13	272.5
6	Matt Schaub	HTX	43	1012	1537	65.8%	12183	68	37	94.7	80	7.93	524	7.73	7.02	283.3
7	Peyton Manning	CLT	48	1214	1805	67.3%	13202	93	45	95.4	40	7.31	251	7.22	6.93	275.0
8	Kurt Warner	CRD	31	740	1111	66.6%	8336	56	28	95.2	50	7.50	354	7.38	6.75	268.9
9	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	43	858	1364	62.9%	10829	60	32	92.5	128	7.94	852	7.76	6.53	251.8
10	Eli Manning	NYG	48	945	1527	61.9%	11261	79	49	88.3	73	7.37	507	6.97	6.33	234.6
11	Donovan McNabb	TOT	43	887	1486	59.7%	10846	59	36	85.4	95	7.30	684	7.00	6.15	252.2
12	Matt Ryan	ATL	46	885	1456	60.8%	10061	66	34	86.9	59	6.91	354	6.77	6.27	218.7
13	Kyle Orton	TOT	43	901	1504	59.9%	10427	59	33	84.8	90	6.93	562	6.73	6.00	237.0
14	Joe Flacco	RAV	48	878	1416	62.0%	10206	60	34	87.9	108	7.21	788	6.97	5.96	212.6
15	Brett Favre	TOT	45	923	1411	65.4%	10183	66	48	88.1	86	7.22	599	6.62	5.84	226.3
16	Jay Cutler	TOT	47	981	1603	61.2%	11466	75	60	82.9	98	7.15	625	6.40	5.67	244.0
17	Matt Cassel	TOT	45	860	1459	58.9%	9733	64	34	83.9	115	6.67	644	6.50	5.62	211.6
18	David Garrard	JAX	46	885	1417	62.5%	9951	53	38	84.7	117	7.02	777	6.56	5.56	216.3
19	Jason Campbell	TOT	44	836	1342	62.3%	9250	46	29	85.1	114	6.89	759	6.61	5.57	205.6
20	Carson Palmer	CIN	36	719	1181	60.9%	7795	50	37	81.4	63	6.60	481	6.04	5.34	216.5
21	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TOT	33	603	1040	58.0%	6327	40	34	74.9	83	6.08	465	5.38	4.57	175.8
22	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	35	668	1141	58.5%	7246	34	44	71.2	80	6.35	503	5.21	4.46	207.0

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

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Tagged as: Chargers, Norv Turner, Offensive Line, Philip Rivers

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Coaching records in close games

by Chase Stuart on June 26, 2012

in Coaches

Now just hold on. I never said you are what your record in close games says you are.

Which coaches have the best records in close games? That’s a complicated question that either means everything or nothing, depending on whom you ask. But putting aside what it means, what are the actual results?

I defined a close game as one where a team was trailing or leading by three points entering the 4th quarter since 1940. ^[1]Originally, I looked at all games that were within one score, but that proven to be even more unfair to the trailing teams. Teams trailing by one score entering the 4th quarter have won only 30% of … Continue reading

The table below shows the coaching records in close games for all coaches who were head coaches in at least 20 close games. You can use the search box below to search for any individual coach. Note that coaches who coached prior to 1940 are included, but only their performances in games beginning in 1940 are listed below.

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References[+]

References
↑1	Originally, I looked at all games that were within one score, but that proven to be even more unfair to the trailing teams. Teams trailing by one score entering the 4th quarter have won only 30% of all games since 1940. Conversely, teams trailing by 3 points have won 39% of the time.

Tagged as: Bill Belichick, Bill Parcells, Norv Turner, Vince Lombardi

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