Philip Rivers

Rivers, Brees, and The Elusive Quest For An MVP Award

by Chase Stuart on November 2, 2018

Drew Brees and Philip Rivers are two of the best quarterbacks of the last dozen years. Brees joined the Saints in 2006, paving the way for Rivers to become the Chargers starting quarterback that season. Since then, they are the only two players who threw for 50,000 yards from 2006 to 2017, and they have been just a hair behind Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning in terms of efficiency.

But despite over a decade of great play, neither Brees nor Rivers have won the AP MVP award. The main reason? The triumvirate of Manning, Brady, and Rodgers have won 8 of the 12 AP MVP awards from ’06 to ’17. In the other years, the award went to Matt Ryan in 2016, Cam Newton in 2015, and running backs Adrian Peterson in 2012 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. In 2012, if Peterson didn’t win the award, Manning would have won it (Peterson beat Manning 30.5 votes to 19.5 votes, and Manning lapped the field for the AP All-Pro QB vote), so neither Brees not Rivers were denied that season.

But in 2006, it probably would have gone to Brees, it not for the historic year that Tomlinson had. Brees was the AP first-team All-Pro choice at QB, largely because of how he transformed the Saints offense from one of the worst to one of the best in a single offseason. Tomlinson ran away with the vote, capturing 44 of 50 votes, but Brees was the runner-up with 4 votes to Manning’s two. That said, I’m not sure I feel particularly bad for Brees on this point: advanced statistics point to Manning as having been the best quarterback that year, and by a decent margin. The ’06 Colts were historically great at picking up first downs, Manning led in ANY/A, and Manning lapped the field in Total QBR. Brees would have won the award based on factors other than pure merit, had it not been for Tomlinson’s performance.

Still, it’s hard not to feel bad for these teammates on the ’04 and ’05 Chargers. For the last 12 years, Brees and Rivers have been behind Manning/Brady/Rodgers in 10 of 12 years, and also behind historically great single seasons from Brees’s NFC South rivals. I went ahead and calculated how many Adjusted Net Yards each quarterback has provided, relative to league average, for each season since 2006. The formula is simple. In 2009, for example, Brees averaged 8.31 ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt, of course, is yards per attempt, with a 45-yard penalty for interceptions, deductions for sacks, and a 20-yard bonus for touchdown passes) and Rivers averaged 8.30 ANY/A, while the league average that season was 5.65. Brees had 534 dropbacks, so he is credited with 1,422 Adjusted Net Yards of value added over average (8.31 – 5.65, multiplied by 534). Rivers had 511 dropbacks, so he is credited with 1,356 ANY of value added over average.

In both 2008 and 2009, Brees and Rivers ranked 1st and 2nd in value added over average. In ’08, both the Saints and Chargers finished 8-8; Manning, who led the NFL with 6 game-winning drives, won the AP MVP on the 12-4 Colts. In ’09, Manning’s Colts began the year 14-0 before shutting things down for the season; Manning was always a shoe-in for that award, thanks to a whopping 7 fourth quarter comebacks in those 14 games; no other quarterback had more than 3 that season. But in terms of ANY/A (and Value), Rivers and Brees were better choices than Manning both years.

In addition, Brees had three seasons where he ranked 2nd in value (’06, ’11, ’17) and two more where he ranked 3rd (’12, ’13). Rivers had a third 2nd-place finish in value in 2010 (behind MVP Brady), and also had a 3rd (2017), 4th (2013), and 5th (2006) place finish.

This year, both players are having remarkable seasons, but Rivers ranks 3rd in Value and Brees ranks 6th in Value. Yes, it looks like Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff or even Todd Gurley could be what stops Brees and Rivers from that elusive first AP MVP Award.

The graph below shows Brees, Rivers, and the leader in Adjusted Net Yards over average for each year since 2006. The NFL leader is in red; Rivers is in Chargers colors, and Brees is in Saints colors. Both Rivers and Brees have had a lot of great seasons, but seasons that fall just shy of MVP-level great.

Rivers and Brees both were victims of Manning in ’08 and ’09, but the biggest snake eyes either of them rolled was in 2011. That year, Rodgers had his best season and was historically great — the only better seasons since ’06, by value, were Manning ’13 and Brady ’07. But Brees 2011 was also great — in fact, it’s the 5th-best season since ’06, with Ryan ’16 being the only other season ahead of him. It just so happens that Brees picked a bad time to have a career season.

Tagged as: Drew Brees, MVP, Philip Rivers

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Checkdowns: Quarterback-Receiver Touchdown Pairings

by Chase Stuart on September 15, 2014

in Checkdowns, Trivia

A good article today from our pal Neil Paine, who asks whether Antonio Gates is the second best tight end in NFL history. I won’t weigh in on that subject, but after catching three touchdowns against the Seahawks on Sunday, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates have now connected on 63 touchdown passes.

That’s the 10th most in NFL history, and the most by any quarterback/tight end pairing. The table below shows all quarterback-receiver combinations that scored at least 50 touchdown passes, including playoffs (and the AAFC). The final column shows the last year in which the duo scored a touchdown; as you can see, one other active combination is on the list, although Drew Brees and Marques Colston have not connected for a touchdown yet this year. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Antonio Gates, Chargers, Philip Rivers

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How much does Philip Rivers’ decline have to do with Philip Rivers?

by Chase Stuart on October 29, 2012

in Passing, Statistics

For years, I was an unabashed Philip Rivers supporter. I had no preexisting affinity for the Chargers or Rivers, but in all the metrics I care about, Rivers was always one of the best. In 2008, 2009, and 2010, Philip Rivers led the league in yards per attempt. He finished first in ANY/A in ’08 and second in ’09 and ’10; he finished second in NY/A in ’08 and then first in NY/A in 2009 and 2010. Simply put, going into the 2011 season, no quarterback had been better over the last three years.

Rank	Player	Tm	Gms	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Y/A	SkYds	AY/A	ANY/A	Y/G
1	Philip Rivers	SDG	48	986	1505	65.5%	12973	92	33	103.8	88	8.62	545	8.86	8.02	270.3
2	Tom Brady	NWE	33	702	1068	65.7%	8374	64	17	102.9	41	7.84	261	8.32	7.78	253.8
3	Drew Brees	NOR	47	1224	1807	67.7%	14077	101	50	98.1	58	7.79	412	7.66	7.20	299.5
4	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	47	1003	1552	64.6%	12394	86	31	99.4	115	7.99	730	8.20	7.19	263.7
5	Tony Romo	DAL	35	771	1213	63.6%	9536	63	30	94.8	61	7.86	360	7.79	7.13	272.5
6	Matt Schaub	HTX	43	1012	1537	65.8%	12183	68	37	94.7	80	7.93	524	7.73	7.02	283.3
7	Peyton Manning	CLT	48	1214	1805	67.3%	13202	93	45	95.4	40	7.31	251	7.22	6.93	275.0
8	Kurt Warner	CRD	31	740	1111	66.6%	8336	56	28	95.2	50	7.50	354	7.38	6.75	268.9
9	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	43	858	1364	62.9%	10829	60	32	92.5	128	7.94	852	7.76	6.53	251.8
10	Eli Manning	NYG	48	945	1527	61.9%	11261	79	49	88.3	73	7.37	507	6.97	6.33	234.6
11	Donovan McNabb	TOT	43	887	1486	59.7%	10846	59	36	85.4	95	7.30	684	7.00	6.15	252.2
12	Matt Ryan	ATL	46	885	1456	60.8%	10061	66	34	86.9	59	6.91	354	6.77	6.27	218.7
13	Kyle Orton	TOT	43	901	1504	59.9%	10427	59	33	84.8	90	6.93	562	6.73	6.00	237.0
14	Joe Flacco	RAV	48	878	1416	62.0%	10206	60	34	87.9	108	7.21	788	6.97	5.96	212.6
15	Brett Favre	TOT	45	923	1411	65.4%	10183	66	48	88.1	86	7.22	599	6.62	5.84	226.3
16	Jay Cutler	TOT	47	981	1603	61.2%	11466	75	60	82.9	98	7.15	625	6.40	5.67	244.0
17	Matt Cassel	TOT	45	860	1459	58.9%	9733	64	34	83.9	115	6.67	644	6.50	5.62	211.6
18	David Garrard	JAX	46	885	1417	62.5%	9951	53	38	84.7	117	7.02	777	6.56	5.56	216.3
19	Jason Campbell	TOT	44	836	1342	62.3%	9250	46	29	85.1	114	6.89	759	6.61	5.57	205.6
20	Carson Palmer	CIN	36	719	1181	60.9%	7795	50	37	81.4	63	6.60	481	6.04	5.34	216.5
21	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TOT	33	603	1040	58.0%	6327	40	34	74.9	83	6.08	465	5.38	4.57	175.8
22	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	35	668	1141	58.5%	7246	34	44	71.2	80	6.35	503	5.21	4.46	207.0

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Chargers, Norv Turner, Offensive Line, Philip Rivers

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Bengals-Ravens, Raiders-Chargers offers road teams a chance to prove themselves

by Chase Stuart on September 10, 2012

in Statistics

The first Monday night of the regular season gives us two football games to enjoy. At 7:00, the Bengals travel to Baltimore giving Cincinnati an immediate chance to prove that last year’s playoff berth was no fluke. At 10:15, the Chargers travel to Oakland and look to show that missing out on the last two postseasons was nothing more than a fluke.

Let’s start with the Bengals. In 2011, Cincinnati lost every game they played against playoff teams and won every game against non-playoff teams. The nine wins came against Cleveland (twice), Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Seattle, Tennessee, St. Louis and Arizona. On the other hand, the Bengals lost twice each to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Houston, and lost in Denver and San Francisco early in the year.

That is more an interesting bit of trivia than anything else. No team since the merger had ever done that before, and only two pre-merger teams managed to pull of that feat. ^[1]In the early ’50s, the playoffs consisted of just a championship game between the two division winners. In 1953, the 49ers lost both games division rival Detroit and to Eastern division champ … Continue reading For the Bengals, the odd split is more an embarrassing blemish that rival fans can point to than anything else. It’s not as if the Bengals can’t beat playoff teams, it’s simply that they didn’t. In 1969, the Cowboys went 0-3 against playoff teams and 11-0-1 against non-playoff teams; the next season, Dallas made the Super Bowl and in 1971 the Cowboys won it. Lombardi’s Packers pulled off the same feat in the middle of their great run: in ’63, Green Bay was 0-2 against playoff teams and 11-0-1 against non-playoff teams a year after having one of the most dominant seasons in football history. The Bengals weren’t a great team last year, but had they gone 7-2 against non-playoff teams and 2-5 in the regular season against playoff teams, would they — or rather, should they — be viewed as any better? Swapping a win against Pittsburgh and Baltimore for losses against say, Cleveland and Seattle?
[continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	In the early ’50s, the playoffs consisted of just a championship game between the two division winners. In 1953, the 49ers lost both games division rival Detroit and to Eastern division champ Cleveland; the 49ers went 9-0 against the rest of the league. The year before, the Rams pulled off the same feat: they lost week 1 in Cleveland, week 2 against Detroit, and week 4 in Detroit, while winning every other game. That gave them a 9-3 record, the same as the Lions, which at the time mandated a play-in game. Detroit beat Los Angeles in that one, too. If you limit the study to just regular season results, you end up with two more teams. In 1999, the Jacksonville Jaguars went 14-0 against non-playoff teams but lost both games to division rival Tennessee; the Titans would also defeat the Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game, proving that Tom Coughlin was incapable of winning the big one. And in 1950, the Cleveland Browns were swept by division rival New York but won every other game that season; they didn’t face Western Division champ Los Angeles in the regular season. Cleveland ended the season 10-2, just like the Giants. The Browns avoided losing a third straight game to New York, winning 8-3 in the play-in game, and then captured the NFL championship by defeating Los Angeles the next week.

Tagged as: A.J. Green, Andy Dalton, Bengals, Chargers, Philip Rivers

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