Priest Holmes

The best fantasy football players since 1950

by Chase Stuart on August 24, 2012

Tomlinson pushed many teams to fantasy titles.

Bill Simmons wrote about LaDainian Tomlinson last month and called him the best fantasy football player of all-time. “Greatest ever” debates are always subjective, but at least when it comes to fantasy football, we can get pretty close to declaring a definitive answer. Joe Bryant’s landmark “Value Base Drafting” system explained that the “value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position.” Bryant came up with the concept of calculating a ‘VBD’ number for each player to measure their value.

A player’s VBD is easy to calculate. Each player’s VBD score is the difference between the amount of fantasy points he scored and the fantasy points scored by the worst starter (at his position) in your fantasy league. A player who scores fewer fantasy points than the worst starter has a VBD of 0. There is no standard scoring system for fantasy leagues, so a player’s fantasy points total will depend on the specific league’s scoring rules. ^[1]I’ve decided to use a blend of the most common scoring options: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 5 points per passing touchdown, -2 points per interception, 6 points for rushing/receiving … Continue reading And, of course, his VBD score will change depending on the number of starters at each position in the league. ^[2]Again, I’m using a blend here, but for baseline purposes I’m using QB12, RB24, WR32 and TE12, since the standard 12-team league starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs and 1 TE.

That said, once you pick a scoring system and a set of rules, it’s easy to calculate career VBD scores for every player since 1950 ^[3]I’ve pro-rated production for those players who were part of seasons when the NFL did not have a 16-game schedule; I also changed the baseline numbers depending on the number of teams in the … Continue reading. Let’s start with the quarterbacks:

Player	Years	POS	Teams	VBD	OVR RK	POS RK
Peyton Manning	1998--2010	QB	clt	1071	9	1
Brett Favre	1992--2010	QB	atl-gnb-nyj-min	1061	10	2
Dan Marino	1983--1999	QB	mia	988	14	3
Fran Tarkenton	1961--1978	QB	min-nyg	921	15	4
Steve Young	1985--1999	QB	tam-sfo	774	24	5
Joe Montana	1979--1994	QB	sfo-kan	727	33	6
Randall Cunningham	1985--2001	QB	phi-min-dal-rav	723	35	7
Tom Brady	2000--2011	QB	nwe	720	36	8
Drew Brees	2001--2011	QB	sdg-nor	688	38	9
John Elway	1983--1998	QB	den	660	40	10
Roger Staubach	1969--1979	QB	dal	630	44	11
Johnny Unitas	1956--1973	QB	clt-sdg	625	47	12
Warren Moon	1984--2000	QB	oti-min-sea-kan	592	57	13
Ken Anderson	1971--1986	QB	cin	539	74	14
Sonny Jurgensen	1957--1974	QB	phi-was	528	77	15
Dan Fouts	1973--1987	QB	sdg	526	78	16
Daunte Culpepper	1999--2009	QB	min-mia-rai-det	515	80	17
Aaron Rodgers	2005--2011	QB	gnb	507	83	18
Tobin Rote	1950--1964	QB	gnb-det-sdg-den	494	88	19
Roman Gabriel	1962--1977	QB	ram-phi	404	130	20
Rich Gannon	1988--2004	QB	min-was-kan-rai	396	135	21
Kurt Warner	1998--2009	QB	ram-nyg-crd	396	136	22
Bobby Layne	1950--1962	QB	chi-nyy-det-pit	385	140	23
Y.A. Tittle	1950--1964	QB	bcl-sfo-nyg	384	141	24
Daryle Lamonica	1963--1973	QB	buf-rai	368	153	25

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References[+]

References
↑1	I’ve decided to use a blend of the most common scoring options: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 5 points per passing touchdown, -2 points per interception, 6 points for rushing/receiving touchdowns, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 0.5 points per reception.
↑2	Again, I’m using a blend here, but for baseline purposes I’m using QB12, RB24, WR32 and TE12, since the standard 12-team league starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs and 1 TE.
↑3	I’ve pro-rated production for those players who were part of seasons when the NFL did not have a 16-game schedule; I also changed the baseline numbers depending on the number of teams in the league, as a baseline of QB12 doesn’t make sense for 1950, when there were only 12 teams.

Tagged as: Don Maynard, Emmitt Smith, Jerry Rice, Jim Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes

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A closer look at running back aging patterns

by Chase Stuart on July 2, 2012

in Fantasy, Rushing

Frank Gore is 29 years old and has been the featured back of the 49ers since 2006. Steven Jackson turns the same age in three weeks, and has been beaten and bruised while playing on bad teams his whole career. Michael Turner had his 30th birthday in February, and has accumulated 300 carries in three of the last four years. Fred Jackson (31) and Willis McGahee (31 in October) have had varying degrees of wear and tear during their careers, and are both competing with younger backs on their roster.

We know the wheels will fall off for these players. But do we know when? And how severe the drop-off will be? Each running back is unique, with his own genetics, history, and supporting cast. It’s difficult to find true comparisons to any one running back, let alone a group of runners. Still, we can try to identify the general aging pattern of top tier running backs.

I looked at all running backs who entered the league in 1990 or later, rushed for at least 5,000 rushing yards, averaged at least 40 rushing yards per game for their careers, and are retired. There were 36 such running backs.

Now we need a metric to measure running back productivity. Generally, I don’t think people worry about running backs failing to be factors in the passing game as they age; Kevin Faulk set a career high in receiving yards at age 32. I don’t think the focus is on touchdown production, either, and we all remember Jerome Bettis still being a short-yardage force even when he was well past his prime. No, when people discuss running backs hitting a wall and deteriorating, the focus is on declining rushing yards and rushing yards per carry. One metric I’ve used before is called “Rushing Yards Over 2.0 Yards Per Carry” or RYO2.0, for short. As the name implies, a running back gets credit for his yards gained over 2.0 yards per carry, so 300 carries for 1000 yards is worth 400 marginal yards, as is 1,060 yards on 330 carries. Essentially, we’re looking at just rushing yards with a small adjustment depending on the player’s yards per carry average.

I calculated the RYO2.0 for each of the 36 running backs at ages 22 through 34. The red line represents the average RYO2.0 for the group at each age for all 36 backs; the green line represents the average RYO2.0 only for those backs who were active in the league at that age.

Running Back production by age

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Tagged as: Eddie George, Emmitt Smith, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn

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