by Chase Stuart
on December 3, 2015
One of my favorite articles of the year is now live at the Washington Post.
Many games are decided in the final minutes. For proof, look no further than the Baltimore Ravens. While the team is just 4-7, Baltimore has played a truly remarkable set of games. Every Ravens game this year has been either tied in the final two minutes, or seen the trailing team possess the ball in a one-possession game. The Ravens won their last two games on the final play; another two Ravens games went to overtime. A fifth game, against Jacksonville, saw Baltimore lose on the final play of the game, and losses to Arizona and San Francisco were decided in the final 15 seconds.
It has been a remarkable roller coaster ride for Ravens fans. It also means the team’s record can be a bit deceiving.
Games decided in the final few minutes can be a bit of a crap shoot: the difference between winning and losing can down down to one play, and often, one play that’s the result of an unsustainable set of factors. Conversely, if a team can knock out its opponent early, that’s a pretty good indicator of team strength. So what’s the best way to measure how early (or late) in games the winning team puts the game away?
You can read the full article here.
Tagged as:
Time of Knockout,
Washington Post
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by Chase Stuart
on July 2, 2013
I'm gonna Gronk you out.
Three years ago, I posted a list of
Approximate Times of Knockout in the NFL: I defined the time of a knockout as how much time was remaining in every game when the winning team first scored more points than the losing team ultimately scored by the end of the game.
I want to revisit the issue but use a slightly different formula. Since we have robust play-by-play data going back to 2000, I thought we could get more precise. In this post, I am defining the time of knockout as the last time the eventual losing team had the ball within one score of the eventual winning team. This seems to fit the definition of knockout a little bit better, I think, although it’s certainly not perfect. I went through every game of the 2012 season and recorded the time of knockout for the victor in each game. If you lost a game and last had the ball trailing within one score with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, that goes down as a knockout with 20 minutes remaining. For the winning team, they get +20, while the loser gets -20. If you do that for every game, you can get season ratings.
Let’s take a look at the Patriots. They went 12-4 last year, and had an average net time of knockout of 19.4 minutes. The “net” means this includes losses in there as well. In their 12 wins, the Pats had an average time of knockout of 26.3 minutes, while in their four losses, they were knocked out with just over one minute remaining, on average. The Patriots had the highest average net time of knockout, but you might be surprised to see who had the highest average time of knockout in victories:
[continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Time of Knockout
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