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Todd Gurley Through 50 Games

Todd Gurley is now 50 games into his NFL career, and he is only getting better. He is averaging an impressive 109.4 yards from scrimmage per game, but he’s been noticeably better since Sean McVay arrived.

As a rookie in 2015, Gurley averaged about 100 yards from scrimmage per game but faded down the stretch, topping the century mark just once in his last seven games. In 2016, in an ugly Jeff Fisher offense, Gurley was extremely consistent, but not in a good way: he did not pick up 109 yards in a single game that season. But since McVay arrived, Gurley has topped his current career average in 16 of 21 games.

The graph below shows the yards from scrimmage gained by Gurley in every regular season game of his career, color-coded by year. [continue reading…]

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The table below shows the main statistics for the top running backs from week 5 of the 2017 season through week 4 of the 2018 season:

RkPlayerGRshRush YdYPCRecRec YdTDYFSYFS/G
1Ezekiel Elliott1023911324.742527691408140.8
2Le'Veon Bell112349674.136855781524138.5
3Todd Gurley1527212814.7159748182029135.3
4Alvin Kamara161619205.71971015171935120.9
5Saquon Barkley4562604.64271933453113.3
6Melvin Gordon1628412134.2769578141791111.9
7Mark Ingram121889545.0743291121245103.8
8Adrian Peterson91856843.714166585094.4
9Leonard Fournette112078263.99281966102292.9
10Kareem Hunt1627511144.05443579147191.9
11LeSean McCoy1524010074.2463268133388.9
12Marshawn Lynch1523010404.52271849122481.6
13Christian McCaffrey151326174.67806027121981.3
14Dion Lewis162119934.71452989129180.7
15Devonta Freeman111326164.6730261387779.7
16Phillip Lindsay4452675.93545231278
17Joe Mixon121646694.0825266593577.9
18Jerick McKinnon121415443.8643381592577.1
19Jordan Howard1627710733.87231536122676.6
20Chris Carson3451773.93550122775.7
21Chris Thompson9592353.9845430366573.9
22Alex Collins162329253.99312579118273.9
23Carlos Hyde162589043.54627711118173.8
24David Johnson4561873.3413104329172.8
25Frank Gore162359093.87272363114571.6
26Jay Ajayi141948444.3523152599671.1
27Lamar Miller162288563.75342615111769.8
28Dalvin Cook336982.729107020568.3
29Sony Michel349196426120267.3
30Kerryon Johnson4382165.681153126967.3
31Orleans Darkwa121586984.4216103580166.8
32Isaiah Crowell162028904.41281566104665.4
33Latavius Murray162218683.93201408100863
34Bilal Powell151687024.1824231493362.2
35C.J. Anderson151847524.0919181393362.2
36DeMarco Murray111424443.1333238668262
37Kenyan Drake171637484.59392875103560.9
38Jamaal Williams161916863.5928283696960.6
39Tevin Coleman151816573.6324230988759.1
40Matt Breida161267075.6126238494559.1
41Matt Forte9802873.5931235352258
42T.J. Yeldon14984584.6744349580757.6
43Duke Johnson16843313.9463570590156.3
44Mike Davis9923443.7421160250456
45Royce Freeman4442194.9815322456
46Derrick Henry161917293.8213138586754.2
47Giovani Bernard161215244.3349333585753.6
48Samaje Perine121294603.5720176263653
49Kapri Bibbs423823.5714128121052.5
50Rex Burkhead1183332429236756851.6

[continue reading…]

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I saw an interesting tweet yesterday:

My first thought was, “No way!” But then again, the leading RB in receiving touchdowns is a pretty obscure category, so who knows. Well, it turns out McDowell is correct (at least back to 1970, which is as far as I checked; before 1970 you are dealing with much smaller leagues, anyway).

So yes, Todd Gurley really does have a running back quadruple crown: he leads all running backs in rushing yards (1,305; Kareem Hunt is second with 1,292); rushing TDs (13; Mark Ingram is second with 12); receiving yards (Alvin Kamara has 742) and receiving TDs (6; Kamara and Christian McCaffrey each have 5).  That is not going to hold up, as Gurley will rest this weekend as the Rams have clinched the NFC West but can not get the 1 or the 2 seed in the NFC.  But for now, it is pretty remarkable, if from nothing else than from a trivia perspective.

In fact, since 1970, only two running backs — Jamaal Charles in 2010 and Arian Foster in 2013 — have led all running backs in three out of those four carries. Charles ranked 3rd in rushing yards that year, Foster ranked 7th in this receiving TDs.

The table below shows all running backs since 1970 whose average rank in these four categories was 5.0 or lower. [continue reading…]

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Todd Gurley and Rushing TDs on Bad Offenses

Here’s a good article by Matt Harmon presenting the contrarian case against Todd Gurley as a fantasy player. One of Matt’s arguments against Gurley’s fantasy value is that he’s on a bad offense, and his numbers last year were only strong because he scored such a high percentage of St. Louis offensive touchdowns.

That math checks out: Gurley ran for 10 TDs (with no receiving touchdowns), while the Rams scored 27 total offensive touchdowns. That means that Gurley rushing touchdowns made up 37% of all Rams offensive touchdowns, which was the highest rate in the NFL last year, and the highest rate in the NFL in three years. The only other players in shouting range of that number were Adrian Peterson (11/32, or 34% of all Vikings offensive touchdowns) and Devonta Freeman (11/34, of 32% of Falcons touchdowns). [1]Note that if we included receiving touchdowns, Freeman would vault Gurley, as he accounted for 41% of all Atlanta offensive touchdowns.

Another rookie from the SEC holds the modern record in this category. In 1981, South Carolina’s George Rogers was drafted by the Saints, and he led the NFL in rushing yards as a rookie. He also rushed for 13 touchdowns, despite the Saints finishing last in the league in scoring. Rogers rushed for 13 of the team’s 24 offensive touchdowns, or 54%. The table below shows the top 100 seasons by this metric since 1960: [continue reading…]

References

References
1 Note that if we included receiving touchdowns, Freeman would vault Gurley, as he accounted for 41% of all Atlanta offensive touchdowns.
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New York Times, Post Week-7 (2015): Todd Gurley; AFC South

This week at the New York Times: Todd Gurley is awesome; the AFC South is not.

Incredibly, Gurley turned 21 in August: He is now the youngest player to rush for 125 or more yards in three consecutive games since at least 1960. Despite not getting his first N.F.L. start until Week 4, Gurley is already making history. He is the first rookie in the N.F.L. since Eric Dickerson in 1983, a Hall of Famer and another Rams player, to rush for 125 yards and average at least 5 yards per carry three times in his team’s first eight games.

..

But this year, the division may reach a new low. Through seven weeks, the four teams in the A.F.C. South have won just four of 19 games outside the division. That puts the division 11 games below .500 in interdivision games. That is the second worst performance in the last 30 years and the worst by any division through seven weeks since the N.F.C. East began the season 4-17 in 1998.>.

You can read the full post here

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