Did you know: Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland have never been 14-point favorites in any game since 1978? In December 1995, facing the expansion Jaguars quarterbacked by backup Steve Beuerlein, the Lions were 13-point favorites.  That is the largest points spread the team has had since ’78, and the playoff-bound Lions won 44-0.

In 2005, in a game against the Katrina Saints with backup Todd Bouman, the Bucs were 13-point favorites. This was the last game of the regular season, and the host Bucs scored a late defensive touchdown to cover, 27-13.  Tampa Bay would finish the year 11-5.

And finally, we have the Browns.  In 1995, against those same expansion Jaguars, the old Browns were 13.5 point favorites coming off of a bye.  But for the first time, a Bill Belichick-led favorite was shocked by a Tom Coughlin-led underdog, as the Jaguars won 23-15.  From a points spread perspective, this was actually a bigger upset than the 2007 Super Bowl!  The largest points spread for the new Browns came in the final game of the 2007 season, where Cleveland beat San Francisco 20-7 as 11.5-point favorites.

The table below shows the largest points spread for each team in a game since 1978. [continue reading…]

Jaguars rookie Gardner Minshew is making his first NFL start today, as Jacksonville starting quarterback Nick Foles is out with a broken left calvicle. Minshew replaced Foles in week 1 and promptly had one of the best passing performances any player has ever had in his first NFL game, at least if you don’t adjust for era. He completed 22 of 25 passes for 275 yards and 2 TDs with one interception, far exceeding how you would expect a rookie 6th round pick would perform in a season opener.

You might think this would mean Vegas would have high hopes for Minshew, who starred at Washington State under Mike Leach. Together with Minshew and his mustache, he “led the Cougars to 10 wins for the sixth time in program history.”

You might think that this would mean Vegas would be buying on Minshew today against Houston, but that’s not the case: the Jaguars are 8-point underdogs in Houston. Jason Lisk recently wrote about Minshew in the context of the point spread in games started by non-first round backup quarterbacks.

That made me wonder: what would cause a team starting a “player like Minshew” to be favored? I looked at all quarterbacks since 1978 who: [continue reading…]

Seven years ago, Neil Paine provided the formula for predicting the expected winning percentage for the home team at the start of a game, based on the Vegas point spread.  There were only 5 upsets where the favorite list, and a sixth game that was a tie with a 2.5-point spread.  The six biggest favorites all won, making this a pretty by-the-book week.

The table below shows the results of each game from the perspective of the home teams in week 1.  The “Expected W%” column shows the expected winning percentage of the home team based on the Vegas point spread; the Eagles were -10.5, so Philadelphia had a 78% chance of winning; the Dolphins were +7, so they had a 31% chance of winning.  The final column shows how likely or unlikely the result was: if the favorite won, the expected winning percentage number was used; if the favorite lost, the expected winning percentage of the underdog was used.  So when the Browns lost, that game gets marked as a 35% likelihood game. [continue reading…]

Back in May, I produced implied Vegas team ratings from the points spreads released by CG Technology. Before the Thursday Night Kickoff game between the Packers and Bears (the less said about that game, the better), Vegas released the final over/under wins totals for each of the 32 teams.

Which made me curious: who are the biggest risers and fallers since May?

The graph below shows the 32 teams. On the horizontal X-Axis is the the expected margin of victory for each team over their 16 games, based on the points spreads released in May (the units are points per game differential).  This incorporates both strength of schedule and home field advantage — it is the actual expected score at the end of the game.  The Y-Axis shows the wins total for each team as of September 5th, which also of course incorporates SOS and HFA. [continue reading…]

After the release of the 2019 Schedule, the next big item on the agenda is figuring out who are the best and worst teams in the NFL. Every year, CG Technology releases point spreads for each of the first 240 games of the NFL season (i.e., spreads for every game during each of the first 16 weeks). And, every year, I then use those weekly ratings to derive the Vegas ratings are for each team. Hence the title of today’s post: we can use the Vegas point spreads in each game to derive the implied ratings by CG Technology for each team.

The way to do this is to take the point spread in each game, adjust for home field (except for the five international games), and then determine by how many points Vegas thinks Team A is better than Team B. For example, when the Jets are favored by 6 points in a home game against the Dolphins, we can take this to mean that Vegas thinks New York is about three points better than Miami. When we see that the Jets and Dolphins game is a pick’em for the matchup in Miami, this helps reinforce that view. And when Vegas says the Jets are a pick’em against the Browns at home, that tells us that Vegas thinks the Jets are about 3 points worse than the Browns *and* that the Dolphins are about 6 points worse than Cleveland. Using the iterative SRS process, and because the transitive property of point spreads applies, we can generate team ratings based on the 240 point spreads involved.

Here’s how to read the table below, in each case excluding week 17 action. After adjusting for home field advantage, the Patriots are expected to beat their average opponent by 6.6 points. On average, New England’s opponents (after adjusting for *their* strength of schedule) are 1.0 points below average, which means the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 points better than average (difference due to rounding). That’s the best in the league; the worst team in the league is the Cardinals. [continue reading…]

Two years ago, I wrote about how the Patriots under Tom Brady were on a remarkable streak. At the time, the Patriots had been favored in 33 consecutive games where Brady was the starting quarterback (during his suspension during DeflateGate, New England was a 9-point underdog against the Cardinals in a game Jimmy Garoppolo started, and a pick’em in a game against the Texans that Jacoby Brissett started; New England won both games).

Since I wrote that article, the Patriots were favored in all 19 games in 2017, and in all 17 games so far during the 2018 season. That brings the total up to an absurd 69 consecutive games that the Patriots have been favored in when Brady is the starting quarterback. And 70 games ago was Super Bowl XLIX, when the Patriots and Seahawks game was a pick’em. That means you have to go back to a game against the Packers in November 2014 to find the last time Brady took the field in a game the Patriots were underdogs.

The graph below shows every Patriots regular (in blue) and playoff (in red) game since 2010.  The non-Brady games at the start of the 2015 season are shown in black circles.  Since point spreads are typically displayed like “Patriots -7”, the Y-Axis shows the point spread but in reverse order (so the Patriots mostly occupy the top half of the graph).  The X-Axis shows the year. [continue reading…]

Tonight is one of the games of the year: the 9-1 Chiefs against the 9-1 Rams. This is perhaps the best regular season game, by record, since another primetime game featuring Andy Reid’s Chiefs back in 2013, when the 9-0 Chiefs traveled to Denver to face the 8-1 Broncos.

Back then, I wrote about the best regular season matchups ever. And I’ve also written about the worst regular season matchups ever. And to be clear, there’s no right or wrong way to identify the best or worst matchup ever, even if you just base things on record.

You can’t use just winning percentage, because it’s hard to compare teams who have played a different number of games (is a matchup of two 3-0 teams better than a matchup of two 9-1 teams? I don’t think so, but winning percentage says otherwise). One solution is to add 11 games of .500 football to each team; in other words, add 5.5 wins and 5.5 losses to each team. For the Chiefs and Rams, that would make both teams 14.5-6.5, which translates to an adjusted winning percentage for both Kansas City and Los Angeles of 0.690. A game between two 3-0 teams would have an average adjusted winning percentage of only 0.607, which is one reason why I like this formula.

So where does Rams/Chiefs rank? With all due respect to the classic 49ers/Browns games from 1948, I’m limiting today’s post to games since 1950. And tonight’s matchup is the 20th best game during that period. The table below shows the best matchups in the NFL since 1950. Each game is listed from the perspective of the winner, and displays each team’s each team’s adjusted winning percentage and the average of the two adjusted records. Finally, I’ve included a linkable boxscore to each game. [continue reading…]

In week 1, the average over/under across 16 games was 44.8. In 9 of those games, the over hit.

Week 2 was when the passing explosion began; in 8 games that week, the teams combined for 48+ points, and in the other 8, teams failed to top 41 points. Nearly every over/under is between 41 and 48 points, so the O/U didn’t matter much this week: in the 8 games that produced 48+ points, the over hit, and in the other 8 games, the under hit.

But that doesn’t mean Vegas wasn’t aware of the passing explosion. The average over/under in week 2 was 45.0, but it jumped to 46.1 in week 3. Once again, we had a 41/48 split: no team scored 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, or 47 points in week 3. So the over/under didn’t matter: 8 games had 48+ points scored and went over, and 8 games had 41 or fewer points and went under. But Vegas had already begun raising the line.

How much? Week 4 had an average over/under of 46.7! And yet the over was still the good bet, as 9 of 15 games went over. This despite the rare event of two games producing 50+ points and still going under! In week 4, 10 out of 15 games combined for 49 or more points, in the greatest passing week in NFL history.

So in week 5, the over/under average jumped to 47.3…. and the over still hit more often than not! There were 8 games with 46+ points scored (7 had 50+ points scored), and the over hit in all of them. The other 7 games all went under, including two games with 44 points scored.

And last week the over/under average was 46.8, perhaps artificially lower because the Saints and Lions (who had 50+ point over/under lines in week 5) were on bye. And yet in week 6, 9 out of 15 games went over.

The table below shows the weekly over/under results this year. The Under has never been a winner, and the books seem to be doing all they can to make over/unders high enough to get people to bet the under: [continue reading…]

Stop the presses: Cleveland is a favorite this week. The Browns host the Jets on Thursday night, and as of Tuesday evening, are 3-point favorites. That is breaking news, and it would really be breaking news if the Browns won. The 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons, along with the first two games of 2018, give us a nice 50-game sample for Cleveland. And over the team’s last 50 games, they have been favored just four times, and won only one of those games: a win over the Blaine Gabbert/Jim Tomsula 49ers.

On that day, Johnny Manziel was the team’s quarterback.  So yeah, it’s been a long time.  Of course, the Browns have only won 4 (and tied a fifth, of course) of those games, with the last coming back on December 24th, 2016.  That day, Robert Griffin III was the team’s quarterback.

So yes, it’s been a rough few years… or decade… or two decades, for Cleveland.  Over the team’s last 58 games, the Browns have been favored to win and actually won just one time — that game against the 49ers.  There have been a lot of bad days in Cleveland over the years, of course: the graph below shows each Browns game since 2008, along with the pre-game point spread.  Remember, a positive number means the team was the underdog.  In the graph below, you can see that most of the dots are above the 0 line, meaning Cleveland was usually an underdog.   The games that Cleveland won are in white dots with orange borders; the games that Cleveland lost are in brown dots with orange borders.

Do the Browns have a reason to be optimistic since the game is at home and the Jets will have to travel to Ohio on short rest? From 2012 to 2017, there were 87 games played on Thursday night excluding week 1, when both teams have equal rest. In those games, the home team won 49 times (a 0.563 winning percentage), although the home team was favored 52 times and a pick’em once. Of the 52 home teams that were favored, 37 won (0.711) and 28 covered (with 24 failing to cover). When the spread has been tight — the home team favored by between 1 and 3 points — the home team has won 9 of 16 games.

If the Browns manage to win the game, it will be just the second time Cleveland has been favored to — and actually won — a game in primetime.  The second-to-last time the Browns won a primetime game they were favored to win? They did it against a team that doesn’t exist anymore, with Bill Belichick as the head coach.

With opening day kickoff just a few hours away, let’s look at the final pre-season Super Bowl odds.

The Patriots are the Super Bowl favorite for what feels like the 20th season in a row. New England is an 11/2 favorite to win it all, which means if you bet $100 (or $200) on the Patriots to win Super Bowl LIII, you would win $650 (or $1,100). That means the Patriots would need to have a 15.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl to make that an even bet (the result of 2 divided by (2 + 11)). But if you do that same calculation for every team, you’ll see that the total Super Bowl percentages equal 131%; that’s because of the vig, the amount that Vegas deflates the payout in order to make money.

If you divide each team’s percentage taken from their odds by 1.31, you get the implied odds of that team winning it all. For New England, this means the Patriots really have about a 12% chance of winning the Super Bowl, according to the oddsmakers.

The rest of the AFC East? The Bills have the worst chance in the league at 0.4%, while the Jets, Dolphins, and Cardinals are all at 150-to-1, for an implied percentage of 0.5%. In other words, the Patriots odds of winning the Super Bowl are more than 8 times greater than the odds of any other AFC East team’s of winning it all. As usual, we have an AFC East sandwich, with the Patriots on top of the league, the Jets/Bills/Dolphins at the bottom, and the rest of the NFL in between.

Here are the full odds for each team this year, courtesy of Bovada. [continue reading…]

Last year, the Steelers went 13-3, but you would have lost money if you bet on Pittsburgh every week. Despite that record, the Steelers went just 7-9 against the spread. Since 1978, teams that have won games are 7706-1514-256 in 9,476 games against the spread, which means teams that win cover the spread about 83% of the time.

The biggest outlier was the 1986 Bears. You probably have heard of a team called the ’85 Bears, who stomped through the league en route to a Super Bowl title. The next season, Chicago went 14-2 but went just 6-10 against the spread! There were 7 games where the Bears were favored by at least 9.5 points and won the game but didn’t cover; that is, of course, a record. The only other teams with even four such games where they failed to cover were the ’98 49ers and ’07 Patriots.

The graph below shows, on the X-Axis, the winning percentage of all teams in all seasons since 1978. The Y-Axis shows their winning percentage against the spread. You can see the Bears as the low dot on the bottom right, at 0.875 winning percentage and 0.375 winning percentage against the spread. [continue reading…]

Joe Montana’s teams were really good at winning football games, going 117-47 and 16-7 in games started by the Hall of Fame quarterback. Montana’s teams had a 0.711 overall winning percentage, which is great; but what’s even more remarkable is how well his teams did against the points spread.

On average, Montana’s teams were favored by 4.5 points. And given the nature of how points spreads work, you would expect most teams to win about half of their games against the spread. But Montana’s teams went 114-73 against the spread, a remarkable winning percentage of 0.610. Much of the success was due to the 49ers of 1981 (15-4 ATS), 1984 (13-5), and 1989 (13-3). The ’81 team was one of the most surprising Super Bowl champions of all time; San Francisco was favored in just 9 of 19 games that year, with three of those spreads being just 1-point lines. And the ’84 and ’89 teams were two of the greatest teams of all time, so it’s not surprising that they had great ATS records, too. The table below show’s the record against the spread for each of Montana’s teams in each season of his career:

…

Also really good against the spread, of course, is Tom Brady and the Patriots. The ’01, ’03, and ’04 Patriots were all Super Bowl champions that were remarkable against the spread, combining to go 41-11-3 relative to the Vegas odds. The Patriots remained solid but unspectacular against the spread since then, although the ’16 team went 13-2 with Brady under center.

What makes the Brady stuff all the more remarkable: the last 52 times the Patriots have taken the field with Brady under center, the Patriots have been favored. And you have to go back 60 games, November 2014 game against the Packers, where New England has been underdogs with Brady under center. More on that tomorrow. [continue reading…]

Ever year, CG Technology releases point spreads for all NFL games during the first 16 weeks of the the season. And as I do every year, I then use those weekly ratings to figure out what the Vegas ratings are for each team.

What we do is take the point spread in each game, adjust for home field (except for the four international games), and then determine how by many points Vegas thinks Team A is better than Team B. When the Patriots are favored by 8.5 points in a road game against the Jets, we can take this to mean that Vegas thinks New England is 11.5 points better than New York. When Vegas says New England is a 7-point home favorite against the Texans, that tells us that Vegas thinks the Patriots are 4 points better than Houston. That’s just two games, of course: Using the iterative SRS process, we can generate season ratings based on the 240 point spreads involved. Here are those ratings, again as of May 13, 2017.

Here’s how to read the table below. After adjusting for home field advantage, the Patriots are expected to beat their average opponent by 6.17 points (this is their Expected HFA-Adj MOV). On average, New England’s opponents (after adjusting for *their* strength of schedule) are -0.47 points better than average, which means the Patriots are expected to be 5.69 points better than average (difference due to rounding). That’s the best in the league; the worst team in the league, perhaps surprisingly, is still the Browns. [continue reading…]

Cleveland is 0-14 this year, but that’s maybe not the saddest stat of the Browns season. Everyone expected Cleveland to be bad, but Cleveland has also been really bad relative to expectations. After losing against on Sunday to the Bills, and again failing to cover against the spread, the Browns are now just 2-12 against the spread this season.

Cleveland covered in games against the Dolphins and Titans early in the year, but the Browns have now failed to cover the spread in eight straight games. The graph below shows the number of points Cleveland was expected to lose by in black, and the actual points differential in orange. Since the Browns have been underdogs and lost every game, the range goes from 0 to -30: [continue reading…]

Meet the new boss, Nick Saban as always.

The Golden Nugget released the point spreads for 100 games this season, and Johnny Detroit was kind enough to pass along that data for purposes of this post.  With only data for 100 games, how am I able to conclude that Vegas views Alabama as the best team (or, at least, one of the top 2 teams)  in college football? Consider:

• Alabama is a 6-point road favorite at Ole Miss this year. That is the only game this year (of the seven we have lines for) where Mississippi is an underdog, and the Rebels are an 8-point home favorite against Auburn and a 4.5-point home favorite against Georgia.  The Rebels finished 10th in the polls last year and are projected to be the 10th-best team this year, so this line says all you need to know about Alabama.

• Against Auburn, Alabama is a 15-point home favorite (that’s a touchdown better than Ole Miss is against Auburn).   The Tigers were not great last year, but are still projected at #20 this year.

• In Arkansas, the Crimson Tide are 8.5-point favorites.  In the other 3 home games for Arkansas, the Razorbacks are 7.5-point dogs to LSU (the #3 team by this methodology), 1-point underdogs to Mississippi, and a 2.5-point favorite against Florida.

• Alabama is a 15-point favorite at home against Mississippi State and a 14-point home favorite against Texas A&M.  Both of those teams are projected to be, by Vegas, top 30 teams this year.

• In Tennessee, Alabama is a 1-point dog, but the Vols are projected as the 6th best team this year! Tennessee is a pick’em in Georgia, a 5-point favorite in College Station, an 11-point favorite at home against Florida, and a 13-point favorite in a neutral site game against Virginia Tech.

• LSU is projected to be the 3rd best team in college football. The Tigers are an 11-point favorite at home against MSU, a 9.5-point home favorite against Ole Miss, 7.5-point road favorites in Florida and Arkansas, a touchdown favorite in Auburn, a 6-point favorite in College Station, and – only – a 2.5-point home favorite against Alabama.

You may be wondering, how do we know how good Alabama’s opponents are? Well, we can imply the ratings of each team in college football based on these points spreads.  I explained how to do this last year, but here is the refresher:

The system is pretty simple: I took the point spread for each game and turned it into a margin of victory, after assigning 3 points to the road team in each game. Do this for every game, iterate the results hundreds of times ala the Simple Rating System, and you end up with a set of power ratings.

Two quick notes about the rankings.

1) These are not intended to be surprise. The methodology may be somewhat complicated, but all these ratings are intended to do is quantify public perception.

2) These are not “my” ratings. These are simply the implied ratings based on the Vegas (or, more specifically, the Golden Nugget) points spreads; nothing more, nothing less.

Below are the ratings for 51 college football teams. In the table below, I’ve included the number of games for which we have point spreads for each team on the far left. The “MOV” column shows the home field-adjusted average margin of victory for that team, the “SOS” column shows the average rating of each team’s opponents (for only the number of games for which we have lines), and the “SRS” column shows the school’s implied SRS rating. As you can see, Alabama is projected to be the strongest team in college football, but Oklahoma is just a hair behind: [continue reading…]

Bovada has released futures wins totals for the 2016 season. Five teams are set at 10.5 wins, but not all teams with X numbers of wins are equal. For example, if you want to bet on the Packers going over 10.5 wins, you need to put down $165 to win $100, which translates to a 62.3% chance of success. If you want to bet against Green Bay, an Under bet of $100 brings back $135, implying a 42.6% chance. Those odds will always add up to over 100% because of the vig of about five percent. Remove that, and these lines have Green Bay pegged at about a 59% chance of going over 10.5 wins. Conversely, Pittsburgh is given a true 50/50 chance at going over 10.5 wins: you have to bet $115 to win $100 on the Steelers either going over or under 10.5 wins.

[continue reading…]

With free agency and the NFL Draft behind us, it’s a good time to take stock of the NFL landscape. Over at ESPN, Bill Barnwell is recapping each division, starting today with the AFC East. I thought I’d post the latest Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Bovada, along with the odds from the end of season (February 8th) and after the first rush of free agency (March 14th).

All odds have a vig associated with them; for example, the Patriots, at 7/1, would have a 12.5% chance (1 divided by 7 + 1) to win the Super Bowl if there was no vig; but if you take the odds of all 32 teams, they sum to 124.8%, not 100%. As a result, every team’s implied odds are divided by 1.248 to get their vig-adjusted Super Bowl odds, shown in the last column. [continue reading…]

In 2015, the average points differential was just 11.06 points per game.  That may not mean much in the abstract, but it’s the lowest in 20 years.  Take a look:

What was driving the close games this year?  It’s mostly because the “losing teams” wound up scoring more points, but the average points scored by the winning team did dip slightly in 2015, too: [continue reading…]

It’s safe to say that no team has exceeded expectations through two weeks quite like the Jets. In week 1, New York was a 3.5-point home favorite against the Browns, but won by 21 points (a 17.5-point cover). In week 2, the Jets won 20-7 in Indianapolis, despite being 7-point underdogs (a 20-point cover). The Jets are the only team to cover by 17+ points in each of the first two weeks; in fact, Arizona (+10 against New Orleans, +23 against Chicago) is the only other team to even cover by at least five points in both games so far.

The last team to pull off this feat? The 2007 Patriots. Yes, another day, another Tom Brady/Ryan Fitzpatrick comparison. From 1978 to 2014, there were 19 teams that covered by at least 17 points in each of their first two games. How did those teams do the prior year, and during the rest of that season?

I’ve included the relevant data for each team in the table below. Here’s how to read the line of the ’06 Chargers. San Diego covered by 24 points in week 1, and 21 points in week 2. The Chargers won 9 games in 2005, but the hot start in ’06 was a sign of things to come, as San Diego won 14 games. That was an improvement of 5 wins, although the Chargers season ended in the Division round of the playoffs. [continue reading…]

Like last year, CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) is the first Las Vegas book to release win totals. For your convenience, I have produced them below, and sorted the list by the difference between 2015 Vegas wins and 2014 wins. [continue reading…]

The Titans lost to the Jaguars last night, dropping Tennessee’s record to a woeful 2-13. The 2014 season started off nicely for the Titans, who upset the Chiefs in Kansas City, 26-10, on opening day. Since then, not only has Tennessee gone just 1-13 (the sole win being a 2-point home victory against Jacksonville), but the team is a mind-bogglingly poor 2-11-1 against the spread.

Points spread data is not official, of course, and some sources of data are better than others. Using what is available at Pro-Football-Reference, I calculated the worst teams against the spread since 1978. If the Titans fail to cover next week against the Colts, they will end the year at 3-12-1 against the spread. That would make them one of just 13 teams since 1978 to post such a poor ATS record. On the other hand, it would only tie them with another AFC South team from the past two years:

The 2007 Ravens went 5-11 overall and 3-13 against the spread, making them the worst team in recent history when it comes to covering the point spread. That year marked the end of the Brian Billick, Steve McNair, and Kyle Boller eras in Baltimore. And while first-year head coach Ken Whisenhunt is probably safe, Titans fans can rest easy knowing that the Jake Locker era is almost certainly over. As for Zach Mettenberger and Charlie Whitehurst? The door may be about to close on them as well. After losing to the Jets and Jaguars, Tennessee looks to be in great shape once the music stops to land Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston.

The Houston Texans switched from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Ryan Mallett over the bye week. The former Patriots quarterback would make his first start in Cleveland, and he would have to do so without Arian Foster. The Texans were 4.5 point underdogs, but still won 23-7, covering by 20.5 points.

In some weeks, that would be the craziest story of the week. But not this week. In fact, it probably doesn’t crack the top three.

The Broncos were 8-point favorites on the road against St. Louis. Shaun Hill against Peyton Manning somehow turned into a 22-7 Rams win. St. Louis covered by 23 points in; points spread margins aside, was the most shocking result from week 11.

The Bengals and Andy Dalton were embarrassed on Thursday Night Football against the Browns ten days ago. The Saints, meanwhile, had won 20 consecutive home games under Sean Payton prior to losing in overtime against the 49ers last week. As a result, Cincinnati was 8.5-point underdogs in New Orleans on Sunday, yet came away with a 27-10 win, covering by 25.5 points.

But the biggest cover by an underdog ^[1]The Packers covered by 28.5 in a very Sanchez-tastic performance, but the Packers were favored by 4.5 points. came in the Washington/Tampa Bay game. Traveling to D.C., the 1-8 Bucs were 8-point underdogs.  Tampa entered the day with a -15 in the SRS, easily the worst in the NFL. And then the Bucs won 27-7, covering by 28 points in the process. Rookie wide receiver Mike Evans picked up 209 yards and two touchdowns, giving him 458 receiving yards and five touchdowns over the last three weeks.

If you’re thinking all these underdog blowouts were unusual, you are correct.  Last year, there was only one week all season where multiple underdogs of at least 3 points wound up covering by at least 20 points.  That came in week 3, when the Colts won by 20 as 10-point underdogs in San Francisco and the Panthers won by 38 points against the Giants as 3-point dogs. [continue reading…]

October 27, 1991. The 4-3 Browns were hosting the 3-4 Steelers, and Vegas oddsmakers set the Browns as 1.5-point favorites. Bernie Kosar would complete 21 of 29 passes for 179 yards and a score, while Kevin Mack would lead the team with 54 yards rushing on 19 carries. It was not a great offensive day for the Browns, but the team managed to pick off Neil O’Donnell two times, and held Merrill Hoge to just 48 yards on 12 carries (the factor back chipped in with 56 receiving yards, too). Clay Matthews — the middle one — had one sack, Louis Lipps led all players with 69 receiving yards, and the only thing that would trick you into thinking that this game didn’t take place generations ago was that Matt Stover started the scoring with a 34-yard field goal. [continue reading…]

In the third quarter on Monday night, I texted my Patriots fan buddy Matt, “Is it possible that we suck? Maybe the run is finally over.” Bill Barnwell mused on this, and Aaron Schatz also wrote about it. It was hard not to think that, given the way the Patriots were manhandled by a mediocre team playing without several key players. It looked every bit as bad as the 41-14 score and maybe worse.

I remember the last time I wondered if the Pats were done. In a 34-14 loss to the Browns in 2010, the Patriots looked pretty impotent. In that game, as in the Chiefs one, the Pats had just under 300 yards of offense. Peyton Hillis ran over the Patriots. Of course, that wasn’t the end. Maybe this time is different, though. If anything the Chiefs game was even worse, so it’s possible this time really is the end. ^[1]And those Pats were 6-1 at the time of the loss to the Browns.

Will the Patriots offense be good later this year? To provide a little insight into this, I went back and looked at performance trends for quarterbacks who have had long careers. The first table looks at quarterbacks since 1969 who have the biggest single-season drops in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) from the previous five year trend. I look just at quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts in a season and I weight by the number of attempts when calculating the average ANY/A over the previous five years.

[continue reading…]

Some background links:

• Warren Sharp’s look at the initial futures numbers from Cantor
• My look at implied SRS ratings based on May point spreads
• Andrew Healy’s post on line movements from March to July:
• Andrew’s follow-up post on not-entirely-awful futures bets

Today I want to look at the latest odds from Vegas on NFL futures, this time courtesy of Bovada.  While we often focus on the number of wins a team is projected to have, the payouts associated with each bet are also key sources of information. Consider the Bears and the Panthers, two teams Bovada has pegged at 8.5 wins. You might think Chicago projects as a better team than Carolina this year; as it turns out, so does Bovada.

If you want to bet on Chicago winning more than 8.5 games this year, Bovada is requiring you bet $155 just to win $100 in the event the Bears win nine games. Of course, if you’re brave enough to suggest that the Bears will win eight or fewer games, Bovada would pay you $125 for your $100 bet. While Chicago is at -155(o)/+125(u), the Panthers are at +145(o), -175(u). So if you think the Panthers are overvalued at 8.5 wins, well, you need to bet $175 on the under just to win $100 if Carolina falls short of that number. On the other hand, Bovada would pay you $145 if you want to take the Panthers winning nine or more games.

Based on those numbers, we can conclude that Vegas thinks Chicago has a 58.2% chance of going over 8.5 wins ^[1]The -155 implies a 60.8% chance of going over 8.5 wins (155/255), while the +125 on the under implies a 55.5% chance of going over 8.5 wins (1 – [100/225]).  The average of 0.555 and 0.608 is … Continue reading, while Carolina has just a 38.6% chance of going over 8.5 wins. ^[2]An over line of +145 implies a 40.8% chance of going over (100/245), while an under of -175 implies just a 36.4% chance of going over (1 – [175/275] The table below shows the number of projected wins for each team in the NFL this year, along with the lines associated with their over and under bets. The final column shows the implied likelihood (by the over/under lines) of the team going over their win total; that column was used to break ties between teams with the same number of projected wins.

[continue reading…]

The Simple Rating System is a set of computer rankings that is focused on only two variables: strength of schedule and margin of victory. I publish weekly college football SRS ratings each season, and you can read more about the SRS there. Last year, I took the Las Vegas point spreads for over 200 college football games to come up with a set of power rankings. By taking every data point, and using Excel to iterate the ratings hundreds of times, I was able to generate a set of implied team ratings.

Well on Friday, the Golden Nugget released the point spreads for 200 games (h/t to RJ Bell). You might not think we can do much with just a couple hundred games, but by using an SRS-style process, those point spreads can help us determine the implied ratings that Las Vegas has assigned to each team.

We don’t have a full slate of games, but we do have at least 1 game for 77 different teams. Theoretically, this is different than using actual game results: one game can be enough to come up with Vegas’ implied rating for the team. Purdue may only have a spread for one game, but that’s enough. Why? Because Purdue is a 21-point underdog at a neutral field (Lucas Oil) against Notre Dame, and we have point spreads for the Fighting Irish in ten other games. Since we can be reasonably confident in Notre Dame’s rating, that makes us able to be pretty confident about Purdue’s rating, too.

The system is pretty simple: I took the point spread for each game and turned it into a marvin of victory, after assigning 3 points to the road team in each game. For example, Alabama is a 6-point home favorite against Auburn. So for that game, we assume Vegas believes the Tide are three points better than the Tigers; if we do this for each of the other 199 games, and then iterate the results hundreds of times, we can come up with a set of power ratings. [continue reading…]

Last year, I derived implied SRS Ratings for each NFL team based on the initial Vegas point spreads. Well, lines have been set for the first 240 games of the year — i.e., every week but week 17 — which means we can re-run the exercise for 2014.

So how do we use point spread data to derive SRS ratings? The point spread in each game provides an implied strength margin (“ISM”) between the two teams: When the Raiders are 10-point home underdogs to Denver, that implies that Denver is 13 points better than Oakland. If we treat each ISM like we would margin of victory, then we can use the SRS to come up with team ratings. For those who need a primer on what the SRS is, you can read about it here; the rest of you can skip to the ratings:

This time last year, the top five teams were…. well, the exact same five teams, albeit in a slightly different order. And the bottom three teams were… Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tennessee, in that exact order. The Broncos have the largest average margin of victory ^[1]Just to be clear, this analysis includes 3 points for each home team except in the London games, so these are more accurately thought of as location-adjusted expected margins of victory., but because the Seahawks face a tougher schedule, the Seahawks are implied by Vegas to be the strongest team in the NFL at six points better than average.

One interesting way to use the SRS is to see which teams have the hardest schedules. Pre-season strength of schedule is essentially meaningless when based on last year’s record, but the SOS ratings here are based on the implied strengths of each team. In my opinion, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better set of strength of schedule ratings in May than what we see here (other than the fact that they exclude week 17).

The toughest schedule this year belongs to Arizona: add in the oldest roster in the league in 2013, and it’s easy to see why Vegas is so bearish on the Cardinals in 2014. The Seahawks (+0.92) and 49ers (+0.81) have two of the next three toughest schedules (with the Panthers sandwiched between them). The Rams are a few spots down, but remember: this is only the strength of schedule for the first sixteen weeks of the season. St. Louis travels to Seattle in week 17, so the Rams schedule would be just as brutal if we included that game. The Bears having one of the five hardest schedules is a surprise after having such an easy slate in 2013.  It’s true that this analysis ignores that Chicago gets to play Minnesota in week 17, which would ease their schedule strength, but the Bears face the 49ers, Patriots, Saints, and Panthers this year, along with two games against Green Bay. That’s six games against top-7 teams.

Three AFC South teams have the easiest schedules; the Jaguars would probably join the rest of the division if they had two games against Jacksonville. The Texans are set up nicely for a rebound season under Jadeveon Clowney, Bill O’Brien, and, uh, Ryan Fitzpatrick/Case Keenum/Tom Savage. What’s really incredible about Houston’s schedule: not only do the Texans have the easiest schedule through 16 weeks, the Texans host the Jaguars in week 17! Including that game would bring Houston’s schedule down to 1.9 points easier than average.

If you include that game, 8 of the Texans’ 16 games are against teams that are 1.5 points weaker than average. Playing six games against the AFC South, the NFC East and the AFC North, and the Bills and Raiders makes for about as easy a schedule as one could create. Assuming the Texans would be favored in week 17, that means Houston — which went 2-14 last year — is favored in 8 of 16 games and a pick’em in three others (Philadelphia and Cincinnati at home, Tennessee on the road). That’s pretty incredible, and explains why Vegas was so bullish on Houston.

The table below shows each game in the first sixteen weeks of the 2014 season.  Here’s how to read the Seahawks/Raiders line: In week 9, Seattle hosts Oakland. The line is -14.5, which means the Seahawks are 14.5-point favorites. Seattle’s SRS is 6.0 while Oakland has an SRS of -5.8. Therefore, the line predicted by the SRS would be Seattle -14.8 (since the Raiders are 11.8 points worse than the Seahawks and on the road). The difference between the actual line and the SRS line is -0.3 points. By definition, the sum of all the differences between the actual lines and SRS lines must be 0, since the SRS lines were generated from the actual lines. The table below contains 480 rows, showing each game from the perspective of both teams (although the only searchable column is the first team column):

Wk	Team 1	Team 2	H/R	Line	Tm SRS	Opp SRS	Proj SRS Line	Diff
9	Seattle Seahawks	Oakland Raiders	Home	-14.5	6	-5.8	-14.8	-0.3
3	New England Patriots	Oakland Raiders	Home	-13	3.2	-5.8	-12	1
12	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Home	-12	1.1	-8	-12.1	-0.1
14	Denver Broncos	Buffalo Bills	Home	-11.5	5.7	-3	-11.7	-0.2
1	Philadelphia Eagles	Jacksonville Jaguars	Home	-11	1.3	-8	-12.3	-1.3
9	Cincinnati Bengals	Jacksonville Jaguars	Home	-11	1.1	-8	-12.1	-1.1
9	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Home	-11	5.1	-2	-10.1	0.9
15	Baltimore Ravens	Jacksonville Jaguars	Home	-10.5	0.4	-8	-11.4	-0.9
12	Seattle Seahawks	Arizona Cardinals	Home	-10.5	6	-0.3	-9.3	1.2
4	San Diego Chargers	Jacksonville Jaguars	Home	-10	-0.4	-8	-10.6	-0.6
12	Denver Broncos	Miami Dolphins	Home	-10	5.7	-1.5	-10.2	-0.2
5	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Home	-10	3.8	-3.1	-9.9	0.1
10	Seattle Seahawks	New York Giants	Home	-10	6	-0.3	-9.3	0.7
3	New Orleans Saints	Minnesota Vikings	Home	-10	2.8	-3.1	-8.9	1.1
10	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	Lond	-10	0.5	-8	-8.5	1.5
10	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	Road	-10	5.7	-5.8	-8.5	1.5
2	Washington Redskins	Jacksonville Jaguars	Home	-9	-1.6	-8	-9.4	-0.4
5	Denver Broncos	Arizona Cardinals	Home	-9	5.7	-0.3	-9	0
12	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins	Home	-8.5	5.1	-1.6	-9.7	-1.2
15	Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	Home	-8.5	0.8	-5.8	-9.6	-1.1
2	Green Bay Packers	New York Jets	Home	-8.5	3.8	-2.6	-9.4	-0.9
8	Denver Broncos	San Diego Chargers	Home	-8.5	5.7	-0.4	-9.1	-0.6
11	San Diego Chargers	Oakland Raiders	Home	-8	-0.4	-5.8	-8.4	-0.4
7	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Home	-7.5	3.2	-2.6	-8.8	-1.3
6	Seattle Seahawks	Dallas Cowboys	Home	-7.5	6	0.5	-8.5	-1
16	Carolina Panthers	Cleveland Browns	Home	-7.5	2.1	-2.7	-7.8	-0.3
5	New Orleans Saints	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Home	-7.5	2.8	-1.9	-7.7	-0.2
4	Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans	Home	-7.5	1.1	-3.3	-7.4	0.1
5	Detroit Lions	Buffalo Bills	Home	-7.5	0.9	-3	-6.9	0.6
16	San Francisco 49ers	San Diego Chargers	Home	-7	5.1	-0.4	-8.5	-1.5
14	San Francisco 49ers	Oakland Raiders	Road	-7	5.1	-5.8	-7.9	-0.9
2	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Home	-7	5.7	0.8	-7.9	-0.9
6	Tennessee Titans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Home	-7	-3.3	-8	-7.7	-0.7
1	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Home	-7	5.7	1.1	-7.6	-0.6
12	Philadelphia Eagles	Tennessee Titans	Home	-7	1.3	-3.3	-7.6	-0.6
11	Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings	Home	-7	1.4	-3.1	-7.5	-0.5
3	Cincinnati Bengals	Tennessee Titans	Home	-7	1.1	-3.3	-7.4	-0.4
5	San Francisco 49ers	Kansas City Chiefs	Home	-7	5.1	0.8	-7.3	-0.3
15	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	Home	-7	0.9	-3.1	-7	0
2	San Francisco 49ers	Chicago Bears	Home	-7	5.1	1.4	-6.7	0.3
12	Atlanta Falcons	Cleveland Browns	Home	-7	0.7	-2.7	-6.4	0.6
15	New England Patriots	Miami Dolphins	Home	-6.5	3.2	-1.5	-7.7	-1.2
1	Chicago Bears	Buffalo Bills	Home	-6.5	1.4	-3	-7.4	-0.9
15	Carolina Panthers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Home	-6.5	2.1	-1.9	-7	-0.5
10	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Home	-6.5	1.1	-2.7	-6.8	-0.3
14	Green Bay Packers	Atlanta Falcons	Home	-6.5	3.8	0.7	-6.1	0.4
8	Kansas City Chiefs	St. Louis Rams	Home	-6.5	0.8	-2	-5.8	0.7
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jacksonville Jaguars	Road	-6.5	0.6	-8	-5.6	0.9
12	New Orleans Saints	Baltimore Ravens	Home	-6.5	2.8	0.4	-5.4	1.1
16	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	Home	-6.5	2.8	0.7	-5.1	1.4
4	San Francisco 49ers	Philadelphia Eagles	Home	-6	5.1	1.3	-6.8	-0.8
10	Baltimore Ravens	Tennessee Titans	Home	-6	0.4	-3.3	-6.7	-0.7
9	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets	Home	-6	0.8	-2.6	-6.4	-0.4
12	Chicago Bears	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Home	-6	1.4	-1.9	-6.3	-0.3
5	Philadelphia Eagles	St. Louis Rams	Home	-6	1.3	-2	-6.3	-0.3
3	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Road	-6	1.1	-8	-6.1	-0.1
7	Chicago Bears	Miami Dolphins	Home	-6	1.4	-1.5	-5.9	0.1
14	Detroit Lions	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Home	-6	0.9	-1.9	-5.8	0.2
13	Indianapolis Colts	Washington Redskins	Home	-6	1.1	-1.6	-5.7	0.3
10	Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears	Home	-6	3.8	1.4	-5.4	0.6
6	Denver Broncos	New York Jets	Road	-6	5.7	-2.6	-5.3	0.7
12	New England Patriots	Detroit Lions	Home	-6	3.2	0.9	-5.3	0.7
7	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Road	-6	6	-2	-5	1
13	St. Louis Rams	Oakland Raiders	Home	-5.5	-2	-5.8	-6.8	-1.3
3	Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Home	-5.5	0.7	-1.9	-5.6	-0.1
13	New York Giants	Jacksonville Jaguars	Road	-5.5	-0.3	-8	-4.7	0.8
1	Kansas City Chiefs	Tennessee Titans	Home	-5	0.8	-3.3	-7.1	-2.1
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns	Home	-5	0.6	-2.7	-6.3	-1.3
10	Detroit Lions	Miami Dolphins	Home	-5	0.9	-1.5	-5.4	-0.4
1	Seattle Seahawks	Green Bay Packers	Home	-5	6	3.8	-5.2	-0.2
13	Houston Texans	Tennessee Titans	Home	-5	-1.1	-3.3	-5.2	-0.2
4	Houston Texans	Buffalo Bills	Home	-5	-1.1	-3	-4.9	0.1
4	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Lond	-5	-1.5	-5.8	-4.3	0.7
1	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Home	-4.5	-2.6	-5.8	-6.2	-1.7
8	Cleveland Browns	Oakland Raiders	Home	-4.5	-2.7	-5.8	-6.1	-1.6
3	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington Redskins	Home	-4.5	1.3	-1.6	-5.9	-1.4
11	Green Bay Packers	Philadelphia Eagles	Home	-4.5	3.8	1.3	-5.5	-1
15	Indianapolis Colts	Houston Texans	Home	-4.5	1.1	-1.1	-5.2	-0.7
8	Dallas Cowboys	Washington Redskins	Home	-4.5	0.5	-1.6	-5.1	-0.6
8	New England Patriots	Chicago Bears	Home	-4.5	3.2	1.4	-4.8	-0.3
11	Denver Broncos	St. Louis Rams	Road	-4.5	5.7	-2	-4.7	-0.2
6	Philadelphia Eagles	New York Giants	Home	-4.5	1.3	-0.3	-4.6	-0.1
5	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins	Road	-4.5	6	-1.6	-4.6	-0.1
5	Dallas Cowboys	Houston Texans	Home	-4.5	0.5	-1.1	-4.6	-0.1
1	St. Louis Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Home	-4.5	-2	-3.1	-4.1	0.4
6	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Road	-4.5	5.1	-2	-4.1	0.4
12	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Road	-4.5	3.8	-3.1	-3.9	0.6
14	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Home	-4.5	1.4	0.5	-3.9	0.6
15	Green Bay Packers	Buffalo Bills	Road	-4.5	3.8	-3	-3.8	0.7
5	San Diego Chargers	New York Jets	Home	-4	-0.4	-2.6	-5.2	-1.2
5	New England Patriots	Cincinnati Bengals	Home	-4	3.2	1.1	-5.1	-1.1
10	Arizona Cardinals	St. Louis Rams	Home	-4	-0.3	-2	-4.7	-0.7
11	New Orleans Saints	Cincinnati Bengals	Home	-4	2.8	1.1	-4.7	-0.7
7	Green Bay Packers	Carolina Panthers	Home	-4	3.8	2.1	-4.7	-0.7
16	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	Home	-4	-1.5	-3.1	-4.6	-0.6
12	San Diego Chargers	St. Louis Rams	Home	-4	-0.4	-2	-4.6	-0.6
11	Carolina Panthers	Atlanta Falcons	Home	-4	2.1	0.7	-4.4	-0.4
6	Arizona Cardinals	Washington Redskins	Home	-4	-0.3	-1.6	-4.3	-0.3
1	Detroit Lions	New York Giants	Home	-4	0.9	-0.3	-4.2	-0.2
13	Atlanta Falcons	Arizona Cardinals	Home	-4	0.7	-0.3	-4	0
14	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Road	-4	-1.1	-8	-3.9	0.1
3	New York Giants	Houston Texans	Home	-4	-0.3	-1.1	-3.8	0.2
12	Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	Road	-4	0.8	-5.8	-3.6	0.4
8	Miami Dolphins	Jacksonville Jaguars	Road	-4	-1.5	-8	-3.5	0.5
16	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Home	-4	1.4	0.9	-3.5	0.5
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Home	-3.5	0.6	-1.9	-5.5	-2
7	Washington Redskins	Tennessee Titans	Home	-3.5	-1.6	-3.3	-4.7	-1.2
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	Houston Texans	Home	-3.5	0.6	-1.1	-4.7	-1.2
3	Carolina Panthers	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	-3.5	2.1	0.6	-4.5	-1
11	Miami Dolphins	Buffalo Bills	Home	-3.5	-1.5	-3	-4.5	-1
15	New York Giants	Washington Redskins	Home	-3.5	-0.3	-1.6	-4.3	-0.8
2	Carolina Panthers	Detroit Lions	Home	-3.5	2.1	0.9	-4.2	-0.7
15	Seattle Seahawks	San Francisco 49ers	Home	-3.5	6	5.1	-3.9	-0.4
7	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Home	-3.5	0.5	-0.3	-3.8	-0.3
9	Dallas Cowboys	Arizona Cardinals	Home	-3.5	0.5	-0.3	-3.8	-0.3
5	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Home	-3.5	2.1	1.4	-3.7	-0.2
14	New Orleans Saints	Carolina Panthers	Home	-3.5	2.8	2.1	-3.7	-0.2
13	Green Bay Packers	New England Patriots	Home	-3.5	3.8	3.2	-3.6	-0.1
3	Seattle Seahawks	Denver Broncos	Home	-3.5	6	5.7	-3.3	0.2
16	Seattle Seahawks	Arizona Cardinals	Road	-3.5	6	-0.3	-3.3	0.2
6	New England Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Road	-3.5	3.2	-3	-3.2	0.3
15	Denver Broncos	San Diego Chargers	Road	-3.5	5.7	-0.4	-3.1	0.4
15	Atlanta Falcons	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	-3.5	0.7	0.6	-3.1	0.4
7	Arizona Cardinals	Oakland Raiders	Road	-3.5	-0.3	-5.8	-2.5	1
1	New England Patriots	Miami Dolphins	Road	-3.5	3.2	-1.5	-1.7	1.8
1	San Francisco 49ers	Dallas Cowboys	Road	-3.5	5.1	0.5	-1.6	1.9
8	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Minnesota Vikings	Home	-3	-1.9	-3.1	-4.2	-1.2
13	Baltimore Ravens	San Diego Chargers	Home	-3	0.4	-0.4	-3.8	-0.8
15	Philadelphia Eagles	Dallas Cowboys	Home	-3	1.3	0.5	-3.8	-0.8
8	Cincinnati Bengals	Baltimore Ravens	Home	-3	1.1	0.4	-3.7	-0.7
5	Indianapolis Colts	Baltimore Ravens	Home	-3	1.1	0.4	-3.7	-0.7
7	Denver Broncos	San Francisco 49ers	Home	-3	5.7	5.1	-3.6	-0.6
14	Cincinnati Bengals	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	-3	1.1	0.6	-3.5	-0.5
2	Cincinnati Bengals	Atlanta Falcons	Home	-3	1.1	0.7	-3.4	-0.4
2	New England Patriots	Minnesota Vikings	Road	-3	3.2	-3.1	-3.3	-0.3
1	Arizona Cardinals	San Diego Chargers	Home	-3	-0.3	-0.4	-3.1	-0.1
2	New York Giants	Arizona Cardinals	Home	-3	-0.3	-0.3	-3	0
16	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Road	-3	3.2	-2.6	-2.8	0.2
7	Baltimore Ravens	Atlanta Falcons	Home	-3	0.4	0.7	-2.7	0.3
16	Green Bay Packers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Road	-3	3.8	-1.9	-2.7	0.3
13	Detroit Lions	Chicago Bears	Home	-3	0.9	1.4	-2.5	0.5
11	San Francisco 49ers	New York Giants	Road	-3	5.1	-0.3	-2.4	0.6
6	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Home	-3	0.7	1.4	-2.3	0.7
13	Carolina Panthers	Minnesota Vikings	Road	-3	2.1	-3.1	-2.2	0.8
13	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Road	-3	5.7	0.8	-1.9	1.1
16	Tennessee Titans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Road	-3	-3.3	-8	-1.7	1.3
15	Chicago Bears	New Orleans Saints	Home	-3	1.4	2.8	-1.6	1.4
16	St. Louis Rams	New York Giants	Home	-3	-2	-0.3	-1.3	1.7
1	Houston Texans	Washington Redskins	Home	-2.5	-1.1	-1.6	-3.5	-1
2	Seattle Seahawks	San Diego Chargers	Road	-2.5	6	-0.4	-3.4	-0.9
14	Washington Redskins	St. Louis Rams	Home	-2.5	-1.6	-2	-3.4	-0.9
8	New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	Home	-2.5	-2.6	-3	-3.4	-0.9
11	Washington Redskins	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Home	-2.5	-1.6	-1.9	-3.3	-0.8
9	Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	Home	-2.5	0.6	0.4	-3.2	-0.7
7	Buffalo Bills	Minnesota Vikings	Home	-2.5	-3	-3.1	-3.1	-0.6
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	St. Louis Rams	Home	-2.5	-1.9	-2	-3.1	-0.6
7	Indianapolis Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Home	-2.5	1.1	1.1	-3	-0.5
2	Indianapolis Colts	Philadelphia Eagles	Home	-2.5	1.1	1.3	-2.8	-0.3
13	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Home	-2.5	-3	-2.7	-2.7	-0.2
12	Buffalo Bills	New York Jets	Home	-2.5	-3	-2.6	-2.6	-0.1
2	New Orleans Saints	Cleveland Browns	Road	-2.5	2.8	-2.7	-2.5	0
16	Dallas Cowboys	Indianapolis Colts	Home	-2.5	0.5	1.1	-2.4	0.1
5	Tennessee Titans	Cleveland Browns	Home	-2.5	-3.3	-2.7	-2.4	0.1
3	San Francisco 49ers	Arizona Cardinals	Road	-2.5	5.1	-0.3	-2.4	0.1
6	San Diego Chargers	Oakland Raiders	Road	-2.5	-0.4	-5.8	-2.4	0.1
6	Green Bay Packers	Miami Dolphins	Road	-2.5	3.8	-1.5	-2.3	0.2
7	Cleveland Browns	Jacksonville Jaguars	Road	-2.5	-2.7	-8	-2.3	0.2
1	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Home	-2.5	0.4	1.1	-2.3	0.2
9	Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints	Home	-2.5	2.1	2.8	-2.3	0.2
12	New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	Home	-2.5	-0.3	0.5	-2.2	0.3
9	Cleveland Browns	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Home	-2.5	-2.7	-1.9	-2.2	0.3
11	Seattle Seahawks	Kansas City Chiefs	Road	-2.5	6	0.8	-2.2	0.3
13	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Home	-2.5	5.1	6	-2.1	0.4
5	New York Giants	Atlanta Falcons	Home	-2.5	-0.3	0.7	-2	0.5
8	New Orleans Saints	Green Bay Packers	Home	-2.5	2.8	3.8	-2	0.5
9	Miami Dolphins	San Diego Chargers	Home	-2.5	-1.5	-0.4	-1.9	0.6
11	Arizona Cardinals	Detroit Lions	Home	-2.5	-0.3	0.9	-1.8	0.7
2	Houston Texans	Oakland Raiders	Road	-2.5	-1.1	-5.8	-1.7	0.8
2	Dallas Cowboys	Tennessee Titans	Road	-2.5	0.5	-3.3	-0.8	1.7
13	Pittsburgh Steelers	New Orleans Saints	Home	-2.5	0.6	2.8	-0.8	1.7
2	Baltimore Ravens	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	-2	0.4	0.6	-2.8	-0.8
14	Minnesota Vikings	New York Jets	Home	-2	-3.1	-2.6	-2.5	-0.5
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	Indianapolis Colts	Home	-2	0.6	1.1	-2.5	-0.5
6	Cincinnati Bengals	Carolina Panthers	Home	-2	1.1	2.1	-2	0
14	Arizona Cardinals	Kansas City Chiefs	Home	-2	-0.3	0.8	-1.9	0.1
7	San Diego Chargers	Kansas City Chiefs	Home	-2	-0.4	0.8	-1.8	0.2
8	Arizona Cardinals	Philadelphia Eagles	Home	-2	-0.3	1.3	-1.4	0.6
1	Carolina Panthers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Road	-2	2.1	-1.9	-1	1
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans	Road	-2	0.6	-3.3	-0.9	1.1
10	Kansas City Chiefs	Buffalo Bills	Road	-2	0.8	-3	-0.8	1.2
10	Pittsburgh Steelers	New York Jets	Road	-2	0.6	-2.6	-0.2	1.8
16	Pittsburgh Steelers	Kansas City Chiefs	Home	-1.5	0.6	0.8	-2.8	-1.3
15	Tennessee Titans	New York Jets	Home	-1.5	-3.3	-2.6	-2.3	-0.8
13	Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles	Home	-1.5	0.5	1.3	-2.2	-0.7
4	Washington Redskins	New York Giants	Home	-1.5	-1.6	-0.3	-1.7	-0.2
16	Denver Broncos	Cincinnati Bengals	Road	-1.5	5.7	1.1	-1.6	-0.1
9	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins	Home	-1.5	-3.1	-1.6	-1.5	0
11	Cleveland Browns	Houston Texans	Home	-1.5	-2.7	-1.1	-1.4	0.1
7	Detroit Lions	New Orleans Saints	Home	-1.5	0.9	2.8	-1.1	0.4
8	Seattle Seahawks	Carolina Panthers	Road	-1.5	6	2.1	-0.9	0.6
15	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Road	-1.5	1.1	-2.7	-0.8	0.7
10	New Orleans Saints	San Francisco 49ers	Home	-1.5	2.8	5.1	-0.7	0.8
4	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	Home	-1.5	1.4	3.8	-0.6	0.9
16	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington Redskins	Road	-1.5	1.3	-1.6	0.1	1.6
10	Philadelphia Eagles	Carolina Panthers	Home	-1	1.3	2.1	-2.2	-1.2
13	New York Jets	Miami Dolphins	Home	-1	-2.6	-1.5	-1.9	-0.9
14	Seattle Seahawks	Philadelphia Eagles	Road	-1	6	1.3	-1.7	-0.7
9	New York Giants	Indianapolis Colts	Home	-1	-0.3	1.1	-1.6	-0.6
16	Houston Texans	Baltimore Ravens	Home	-1	-1.1	0.4	-1.5	-0.5
2	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	Home	-1	-3	-1.5	-1.5	-0.5
15	St. Louis Rams	Arizona Cardinals	Home	-1	-2	-0.3	-1.3	-0.3
4	Baltimore Ravens	Carolina Panthers	Home	-1	0.4	2.1	-1.3	-0.3
6	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	Road	-1	0.9	-3.1	-1	0
11	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	Home	-1	1.1	3.2	-0.9	0.1
1	Atlanta Falcons	New Orleans Saints	Home	-1	0.7	2.8	-0.9	0.1
4	Atlanta Falcons	Minnesota Vikings	Road	-1	0.7	-3.1	-0.8	0.2
6	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Home	-1	-1.1	1.1	-0.8	0.2
14	Indianapolis Colts	Cleveland Browns	Road	-1	1.1	-2.7	-0.8	0.2
6	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Baltimore Ravens	Home	-1	-1.9	0.4	-0.7	0.3
14	New England Patriots	San Diego Chargers	Road	-1	3.2	-0.4	-0.6	0.4
4	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Home	-1	0.8	3.2	-0.6	0.4
4	Detroit Lions	New York Jets	Road	-1	0.9	-2.6	-0.5	0.5
9	New England Patriots	Denver Broncos	Home	-1	3.2	5.7	-0.5	0.5
3	Buffalo Bills	San Diego Chargers	Home	-1	-3	-0.4	-0.4	0.6
8	Detroit Lions	Atlanta Falcons	Lond	-1	0.9	0.7	-0.2	0.8
14	New York Giants	Tennessee Titans	Road	-1	-0.3	-3.3	0	1
3	Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions	Road	-1	3.8	0.9	0.1	1.1
16	Buffalo Bills	Oakland Raiders	Road	-1	-3	-5.8	0.2	1.2
14	Miami Dolphins	Baltimore Ravens	Home	0	-1.5	0.4	-1.1	-1.1
3	Chicago Bears	New York Jets	Road	0	1.4	-2.6	-1	-1
12	Houston Texans	Cincinnati Bengals	Home	0	-1.1	1.1	-0.8	-0.8
8	Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans	Home	0	-3.3	-1.1	-0.8	-0.8
4	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	Home	0	0.5	2.8	-0.7	-0.7
3	Miami Dolphins	Kansas City Chiefs	Home	0	-1.5	0.8	-0.7	-0.7
9	Houston Texans	Philadelphia Eagles	Home	0	-1.1	1.3	-0.6	-0.6
3	St. Louis Rams	Dallas Cowboys	Home	0	-2	0.5	-0.5	-0.5
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	Home	0	-1.9	0.7	-0.4	-0.4
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns	Road	0	0.6	-2.7	-0.3	-0.3
3	Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns	Road	0	0.4	-2.7	-0.1	-0.1
13	Cincinnati Bengals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Road	0	1.1	-1.9	0	0
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Cincinnati Bengals	Home	0	-1.9	1.1	0	0
3	Cleveland Browns	Baltimore Ravens	Home	0	-2.7	0.4	0.1	0.1
6	Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	0	-2.7	0.6	0.3	0.3
10	Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Road	0	0.7	-1.9	0.4	0.4
3	Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams	Road	0	0.5	-2	0.5	0.5
9	Philadelphia Eagles	Houston Texans	Road	0	1.3	-1.1	0.6	0.6
3	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Road	0	0.8	-1.5	0.7	0.7
4	New Orleans Saints	Dallas Cowboys	Road	0	2.8	0.5	0.7	0.7
8	Houston Texans	Tennessee Titans	Road	0	-1.1	-3.3	0.8	0.8
12	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Texans	Road	0	1.1	-1.1	0.8	0.8
3	New York Jets	Chicago Bears	Home	0	-2.6	1.4	1	1
14	Baltimore Ravens	Miami Dolphins	Road	0	0.4	-1.5	1.1	1.1
16	Oakland Raiders	Buffalo Bills	Home	1	-5.8	-3	-0.2	-1.2
3	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Home	1	0.9	3.8	-0.1	-1.1
14	Tennessee Titans	New York Giants	Home	1	-3.3	-0.3	0	-1
8	Atlanta Falcons	Detroit Lions	Lond	1	0.7	0.9	0.2	-0.8
3	San Diego Chargers	Buffalo Bills	Road	1	-0.4	-3	0.4	-0.6
4	New York Jets	Detroit Lions	Home	1	-2.6	0.9	0.5	-0.5
9	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	Road	1	5.7	3.2	0.5	-0.5
14	San Diego Chargers	New England Patriots	Home	1	-0.4	3.2	0.6	-0.4
4	New England Patriots	Kansas City Chiefs	Road	1	3.2	0.8	0.6	-0.4
6	Baltimore Ravens	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Road	1	0.4	-1.9	0.7	-0.3
14	Cleveland Browns	Indianapolis Colts	Home	1	-2.7	1.1	0.8	-0.2
4	Minnesota Vikings	Atlanta Falcons	Home	1	-3.1	0.7	0.8	-0.2
6	Indianapolis Colts	Houston Texans	Road	1	1.1	-1.1	0.8	-0.2
11	New England Patriots	Indianapolis Colts	Road	1	3.2	1.1	0.9	-0.1
1	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	Road	1	2.8	0.7	0.9	-0.1
6	Minnesota Vikings	Detroit Lions	Home	1	-3.1	0.9	1	0
4	Carolina Panthers	Baltimore Ravens	Road	1	2.1	0.4	1.3	0.3
15	Arizona Cardinals	St. Louis Rams	Road	1	-0.3	-2	1.3	0.3
2	Miami Dolphins	Buffalo Bills	Road	1	-1.5	-3	1.5	0.5
16	Baltimore Ravens	Houston Texans	Road	1	0.4	-1.1	1.5	0.5
9	Indianapolis Colts	New York Giants	Road	1	1.1	-0.3	1.6	0.6
14	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	Home	1	1.3	6	1.7	0.7
13	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	Road	1	-1.5	-2.6	1.9	0.9
10	Carolina Panthers	Philadelphia Eagles	Road	1	2.1	1.3	2.2	1.2
16	Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	Home	1.5	-1.6	1.3	-0.1	-1.6
4	Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears	Road	1.5	3.8	1.4	0.6	-0.9
10	San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	Road	1.5	5.1	2.8	0.7	-0.8
15	Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	Home	1.5	-2.7	1.1	0.8	-0.7
8	Carolina Panthers	Seattle Seahawks	Home	1.5	2.1	6	0.9	-0.6
7	New Orleans Saints	Detroit Lions	Road	1.5	2.8	0.9	1.1	-0.4
11	Houston Texans	Cleveland Browns	Road	1.5	-1.1	-2.7	1.4	-0.1
9	Washington Redskins	Minnesota Vikings	Road	1.5	-1.6	-3.1	1.5	0
16	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Home	1.5	1.1	5.7	1.6	0.1
4	New York Giants	Washington Redskins	Road	1.5	-0.3	-1.6	1.7	0.2
13	Philadelphia Eagles	Dallas Cowboys	Road	1.5	1.3	0.5	2.2	0.7
15	New York Jets	Tennessee Titans	Road	1.5	-2.6	-3.3	2.3	0.8
16	Kansas City Chiefs	Pittsburgh Steelers	Road	1.5	0.8	0.6	2.8	1.3
10	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	2	-2.6	0.6	0.2	-1.8
10	Buffalo Bills	Kansas City Chiefs	Home	2	-3	0.8	0.8	-1.2
11	Tennessee Titans	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	2	-3.3	0.6	0.9	-1.1
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Carolina Panthers	Home	2	-1.9	2.1	1	-1
8	Philadelphia Eagles	Arizona Cardinals	Road	2	1.3	-0.3	1.4	-0.6
7	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	Road	2	0.8	-0.4	1.8	-0.2
14	Kansas City Chiefs	Arizona Cardinals	Road	2	0.8	-0.3	1.9	-0.1
6	Carolina Panthers	Cincinnati Bengals	Road	2	2.1	1.1	2	0
14	New York Jets	Minnesota Vikings	Road	2	-2.6	-3.1	2.5	0.5
8	Indianapolis Colts	Pittsburgh Steelers	Road	2	1.1	0.6	2.5	0.5
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	Road	2	0.6	0.4	2.8	0.8
2	Tennessee Titans	Dallas Cowboys	Home	2.5	-3.3	0.5	0.8	-1.7
13	New Orleans Saints	Pittsburgh Steelers	Road	2.5	2.8	0.6	0.8	-1.7
2	Oakland Raiders	Houston Texans	Home	2.5	-5.8	-1.1	1.7	-0.8
11	Detroit Lions	Arizona Cardinals	Road	2.5	0.9	-0.3	1.8	-0.7
9	San Diego Chargers	Miami Dolphins	Road	2.5	-0.4	-1.5	1.9	-0.6
5	Atlanta Falcons	New York Giants	Road	2.5	0.7	-0.3	2	-0.5
8	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	Road	2.5	3.8	2.8	2	-0.5
13	Seattle Seahawks	San Francisco 49ers	Road	2.5	6	5.1	2.1	-0.4
12	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Road	2.5	0.5	-0.3	2.2	-0.3
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Cleveland Browns	Road	2.5	-1.9	-2.7	2.2	-0.3
11	Kansas City Chiefs	Seattle Seahawks	Home	2.5	0.8	6	2.2	-0.3
1	Cincinnati Bengals	Baltimore Ravens	Road	2.5	1.1	0.4	2.3	-0.2
6	Miami Dolphins	Green Bay Packers	Home	2.5	-1.5	3.8	2.3	-0.2
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	Cleveland Browns	Home	2.5	-8	-2.7	2.3	-0.2
9	New Orleans Saints	Carolina Panthers	Road	2.5	2.8	2.1	2.3	-0.2
6	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	Home	2.5	-5.8	-0.4	2.4	-0.1
16	Indianapolis Colts	Dallas Cowboys	Road	2.5	1.1	0.5	2.4	-0.1
3	Arizona Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Home	2.5	-0.3	5.1	2.4	-0.1
5	Cleveland Browns	Tennessee Titans	Road	2.5	-2.7	-3.3	2.4	-0.1
2	Cleveland Browns	New Orleans Saints	Home	2.5	-2.7	2.8	2.5	0
12	New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	Road	2.5	-2.6	-3	2.6	0.1
13	Cleveland Browns	Buffalo Bills	Road	2.5	-2.7	-3	2.7	0.2
2	Philadelphia Eagles	Indianapolis Colts	Road	2.5	1.3	1.1	2.8	0.3
7	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	Road	2.5	1.1	1.1	3	0.5
2	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Road	2.5	-2	-1.9	3.1	0.6
7	Minnesota Vikings	Buffalo Bills	Road	2.5	-3.1	-3	3.1	0.6
9	Baltimore Ravens	Pittsburgh Steelers	Road	2.5	0.4	0.6	3.2	0.7
11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Road	2.5	-1.9	-1.6	3.3	0.8
8	Buffalo Bills	New York Jets	Road	2.5	-3	-2.6	3.4	0.9
14	St. Louis Rams	Washington Redskins	Road	2.5	-2	-1.6	3.4	0.9
2	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Home	2.5	-0.4	6	3.4	0.9
1	Washington Redskins	Houston Texans	Road	2.5	-1.6	-1.1	3.5	1
16	New York Giants	St. Louis Rams	Road	3	-0.3	-2	1.3	-1.7
15	New Orleans Saints	Chicago Bears	Road	3	2.8	1.4	1.6	-1.4
16	Jacksonville Jaguars	Tennessee Titans	Home	3	-8	-3.3	1.7	-1.3
13	Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	Home	3	0.8	5.7	1.9	-1.1
13	Minnesota Vikings	Carolina Panthers	Home	3	-3.1	2.1	2.2	-0.8
6	Chicago Bears	Atlanta Falcons	Road	3	1.4	0.7	2.3	-0.7
11	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Home	3	-0.3	5.1	2.4	-0.6
13	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Road	3	1.4	0.9	2.5	-0.5
7	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Road	3	0.7	0.4	2.7	-0.3
16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Green Bay Packers	Home	3	-1.9	3.8	2.7	-0.3
16	New York Jets	New England Patriots	Home	3	-2.6	3.2	2.8	-0.2
2	Arizona Cardinals	New York Giants	Road	3	-0.3	-0.3	3	0
1	San Diego Chargers	Arizona Cardinals	Road	3	-0.4	-0.3	3.1	0.1
2	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	Home	3	-3.1	3.2	3.3	0.3
2	Atlanta Falcons	Cincinnati Bengals	Road	3	0.7	1.1	3.4	0.4
14	Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals	Road	3	0.6	1.1	3.5	0.5
7	San Francisco 49ers	Denver Broncos	Road	3	5.1	5.7	3.6	0.6
5	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	Road	3	0.4	1.1	3.7	0.7
8	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Road	3	0.4	1.1	3.7	0.7
13	San Diego Chargers	Baltimore Ravens	Road	3	-0.4	0.4	3.8	0.8
15	Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles	Road	3	0.5	1.3	3.8	0.8
8	Minnesota Vikings	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Road	3	-3.1	-1.9	4.2	1.2
1	Dallas Cowboys	San Francisco 49ers	Home	3.5	0.5	5.1	1.6	-1.9
1	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Home	3.5	-1.5	3.2	1.7	-1.8
7	Oakland Raiders	Arizona Cardinals	Home	3.5	-5.8	-0.3	2.5	-1
15	San Diego Chargers	Denver Broncos	Home	3.5	-0.4	5.7	3.1	-0.4
15	Pittsburgh Steelers	Atlanta Falcons	Road	3.5	0.6	0.7	3.1	-0.4
6	Buffalo Bills	New England Patriots	Home	3.5	-3	3.2	3.2	-0.3
3	Denver Broncos	Seattle Seahawks	Road	3.5	5.7	6	3.3	-0.2
16	Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks	Home	3.5	-0.3	6	3.3	-0.2
13	New England Patriots	Green Bay Packers	Road	3.5	3.2	3.8	3.6	0.1
14	Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints	Road	3.5	2.1	2.8	3.7	0.2
5	Chicago Bears	Carolina Panthers	Road	3.5	1.4	2.1	3.7	0.2
9	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Road	3.5	-0.3	0.5	3.8	0.3
7	New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	Road	3.5	-0.3	0.5	3.8	0.3
15	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Road	3.5	5.1	6	3.9	0.4
2	Detroit Lions	Carolina Panthers	Road	3.5	0.9	2.1	4.2	0.7
15	Washington Redskins	New York Giants	Road	3.5	-1.6	-0.3	4.3	0.8
11	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	Road	3.5	-3	-1.5	4.5	1
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	Carolina Panthers	Road	3.5	0.6	2.1	4.5	1
7	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins	Road	3.5	-3.3	-1.6	4.7	1.2
7	Houston Texans	Pittsburgh Steelers	Road	3.5	-1.1	0.6	4.7	1.2
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Pittsburgh Steelers	Road	3.5	-1.9	0.6	5.5	2
16	Detroit Lions	Chicago Bears	Road	4	0.9	1.4	3.5	-0.5
8	Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins	Home	4	-8	-1.5	3.5	-0.5
12	Oakland Raiders	Kansas City Chiefs	Home	4	-5.8	0.8	3.6	-0.4
3	Houston Texans	New York Giants	Road	4	-1.1	-0.3	3.8	-0.2
14	Jacksonville Jaguars	Houston Texans	Home	4	-8	-1.1	3.9	-0.1
13	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Road	4	-0.3	0.7	4	0
1	New York Giants	Detroit Lions	Road	4	-0.3	0.9	4.2	0.2
6	Washington Redskins	Arizona Cardinals	Road	4	-1.6	-0.3	4.3	0.3
11	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Road	4	0.7	2.1	4.4	0.4
16	Minnesota Vikings	Miami Dolphins	Road	4	-3.1	-1.5	4.6	0.6
12	St. Louis Rams	San Diego Chargers	Road	4	-2	-0.4	4.6	0.6
7	Carolina Panthers	Green Bay Packers	Road	4	2.1	3.8	4.7	0.7
10	St. Louis Rams	Arizona Cardinals	Road	4	-2	-0.3	4.7	0.7
11	Cincinnati Bengals	New Orleans Saints	Road	4	1.1	2.8	4.7	0.7
5	Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	Road	4	1.1	3.2	5.1	1.1
5	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers	Road	4	-2.6	-0.4	5.2	1.2
15	Buffalo Bills	Green Bay Packers	Home	4.5	-3	3.8	3.8	-0.7
14	Dallas Cowboys	Chicago Bears	Road	4.5	0.5	1.4	3.9	-0.6
12	Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers	Home	4.5	-3.1	3.8	3.9	-0.6
6	St. Louis Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Home	4.5	-2	5.1	4.1	-0.4
1	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Rams	Road	4.5	-3.1	-2	4.1	-0.4
6	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Road	4.5	-0.3	1.3	4.6	0.1
5	Houston Texans	Dallas Cowboys	Road	4.5	-1.1	0.5	4.6	0.1
5	Washington Redskins	Seattle Seahawks	Home	4.5	-1.6	6	4.6	0.1
11	St. Louis Rams	Denver Broncos	Home	4.5	-2	5.7	4.7	0.2
8	Chicago Bears	New England Patriots	Road	4.5	1.4	3.2	4.8	0.3
8	Washington Redskins	Dallas Cowboys	Road	4.5	-1.6	0.5	5.1	0.6
15	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Road	4.5	-1.1	1.1	5.2	0.7
11	Philadelphia Eagles	Green Bay Packers	Road	4.5	1.3	3.8	5.5	1
3	Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	Road	4.5	-1.6	1.3	5.9	1.4
8	Oakland Raiders	Cleveland Browns	Road	4.5	-5.8	-2.7	6.1	1.6
1	Oakland Raiders	New York Jets	Road	4.5	-5.8	-2.6	6.2	1.7
4	Oakland Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Lond	5	-5.8	-1.5	4.3	-0.7
4	Buffalo Bills	Houston Texans	Road	5	-3	-1.1	4.9	-0.1
1	Green Bay Packers	Seattle Seahawks	Road	5	3.8	6	5.2	0.2
13	Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans	Road	5	-3.3	-1.1	5.2	0.2
10	Miami Dolphins	Detroit Lions	Road	5	-1.5	0.9	5.4	0.4
1	Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers	Road	5	-2.7	0.6	6.3	1.3
1	Tennessee Titans	Kansas City Chiefs	Road	5	-3.3	0.8	7.1	2.1
13	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Giants	Home	5.5	-8	-0.3	4.7	-0.8
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	Road	5.5	-1.9	0.7	5.6	0.1
13	Oakland Raiders	St. Louis Rams	Road	5.5	-5.8	-2	6.8	1.3
7	St. Louis Rams	Seattle Seahawks	Home	6	-2	6	5	-1
6	New York Jets	Denver Broncos	Home	6	-2.6	5.7	5.3	-0.7
12	Detroit Lions	New England Patriots	Road	6	0.9	3.2	5.3	-0.7
10	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	Road	6	1.4	3.8	5.4	-0.6
13	Washington Redskins	Indianapolis Colts	Road	6	-1.6	1.1	5.7	-0.3
14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Detroit Lions	Road	6	-1.9	0.9	5.8	-0.2
7	Miami Dolphins	Chicago Bears	Road	6	-1.5	1.4	5.9	-0.1
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Indianapolis Colts	Home	6	-8	1.1	6.1	0.1
12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chicago Bears	Road	6	-1.9	1.4	6.3	0.3
5	St. Louis Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	Road	6	-2	1.3	6.3	0.3
9	New York Jets	Kansas City Chiefs	Road	6	-2.6	0.8	6.4	0.4
10	Tennessee Titans	Baltimore Ravens	Road	6	-3.3	0.4	6.7	0.7
4	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Road	6	1.3	5.1	6.8	0.8
16	Atlanta Falcons	New Orleans Saints	Road	6.5	0.7	2.8	5.1	-1.4
12	Baltimore Ravens	New Orleans Saints	Road	6.5	0.4	2.8	5.4	-1.1
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	6.5	-8	0.6	5.6	-0.9
8	St. Louis Rams	Kansas City Chiefs	Road	6.5	-2	0.8	5.8	-0.7
14	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	Road	6.5	0.7	3.8	6.1	-0.4
10	Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	Road	6.5	-2.7	1.1	6.8	0.3
15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Carolina Panthers	Road	6.5	-1.9	2.1	7	0.5
1	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Road	6.5	-3	1.4	7.4	0.9
15	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Road	6.5	-1.5	3.2	7.7	1.2
12	Cleveland Browns	Atlanta Falcons	Road	7	-2.7	0.7	6.4	-0.6
2	Chicago Bears	San Francisco 49ers	Road	7	1.4	5.1	6.7	-0.3
15	Minnesota Vikings	Detroit Lions	Road	7	-3.1	0.9	7	0
5	Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers	Road	7	0.8	5.1	7.3	0.3
3	Tennessee Titans	Cincinnati Bengals	Road	7	-3.3	1.1	7.4	0.4
11	Minnesota Vikings	Chicago Bears	Road	7	-3.1	1.4	7.5	0.5
12	Tennessee Titans	Philadelphia Eagles	Road	7	-3.3	1.3	7.6	0.6
1	Indianapolis Colts	Denver Broncos	Road	7	1.1	5.7	7.6	0.6
6	Jacksonville Jaguars	Tennessee Titans	Road	7	-8	-3.3	7.7	0.7
2	Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	Road	7	0.8	5.7	7.9	0.9
14	Oakland Raiders	San Francisco 49ers	Home	7	-5.8	5.1	7.9	0.9
16	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Road	7	-0.4	5.1	8.5	1.5
5	Buffalo Bills	Detroit Lions	Road	7.5	-3	0.9	6.9	-0.6
4	Tennessee Titans	Indianapolis Colts	Road	7.5	-3.3	1.1	7.4	-0.1
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	New Orleans Saints	Road	7.5	-1.9	2.8	7.7	0.2
16	Cleveland Browns	Carolina Panthers	Road	7.5	-2.7	2.1	7.8	0.3
6	Dallas Cowboys	Seattle Seahawks	Road	7.5	0.5	6	8.5	1
7	New York Jets	New England Patriots	Road	7.5	-2.6	3.2	8.8	1.3
11	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	Road	8	-5.8	-0.4	8.4	0.4
8	San Diego Chargers	Denver Broncos	Road	8.5	-0.4	5.7	9.1	0.6
2	New York Jets	Green Bay Packers	Road	8.5	-2.6	3.8	9.4	0.9
15	Oakland Raiders	Kansas City Chiefs	Road	8.5	-5.8	0.8	9.6	1.1
12	Washington Redskins	San Francisco 49ers	Road	8.5	-1.6	5.1	9.7	1.2
5	Arizona Cardinals	Denver Broncos	Road	9	-0.3	5.7	9	0
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	Washington Redskins	Road	9	-8	-1.6	9.4	0.4
10	Oakland Raiders	Denver Broncos	Home	10	-5.8	5.7	8.5	-1.5
10	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dallas Cowboys	Lond	10	-8	0.5	8.5	-1.5
3	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Road	10	-3.1	2.8	8.9	-1.1
10	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks	Road	10	-0.3	6	9.3	-0.7
5	Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers	Road	10	-3.1	3.8	9.9	-0.1
12	Miami Dolphins	Denver Broncos	Road	10	-1.5	5.7	10.2	0.2
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	San Diego Chargers	Road	10	-8	-0.4	10.6	0.6
12	Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks	Road	10.5	-0.3	6	9.3	-1.2
15	Jacksonville Jaguars	Baltimore Ravens	Road	10.5	-8	0.4	11.4	0.9
9	St. Louis Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Road	11	-2	5.1	10.1	-0.9
9	Jacksonville Jaguars	Cincinnati Bengals	Road	11	-8	1.1	12.1	1.1
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	Philadelphia Eagles	Road	11	-8	1.3	12.3	1.3
14	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Road	11.5	-3	5.7	11.7	0.2
12	Jacksonville Jaguars	Indianapolis Colts	Road	12	-8	1.1	12.1	0.1
3	Oakland Raiders	New England Patriots	Road	13	-5.8	3.2	12	-1
9	Oakland Raiders	Seattle Seahawks	Road	14.5	-5.8	6	14.8	0.3

Some thoughts:

• The biggest outlier games are again in week 1; as Jason Lisk noted when he ran a similar study last year, the lines build in some risk of injury (or simply risk of not knowing what’s going to happen in the future): if Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning miss time with an injury, it’s more likely to be later in the season than in week one. Additionally, if Vegas feels more confident in the early games than the late games, that will lead to some games appearing as outliers in week 1.
• The weirdest line of the season is Tennessee/Kansas City in week 1.  The Chiefs are only 5-point home favorites: that’s 2.1 points lower than we would expect given the location of the game and the ratings of Kansas City (+0.8) and Tennessee (-3.3).
• As a reminder, here’s a link to the 2014 schedule grid I created; I did not assign 3 points to the home team in the three London games this year.
• For the second straight year, the Seahawks are underdogs just once: the game in San Francisco. Denver is an underdog when it travels to Seattle and Foxboro, and every other team is a dog in at least three games.
• Oakland and Jacksonville are underdogs in each of their 15 games. Considering Oakland travels to Denver in week 17, we can safely say the Raiders and Jags are projected underdogs in every game this year.