wins

Quarterback Wins: Outlier Seasons

by Chase Stuart on July 24, 2014

Testaverde led the Jets to the AFCCG in 1998.

The 1998 season was one of my favorite years in NFL history. It was also a pretty weird one. We had Terrell Davis rushing for 2,000 yards, rookies Randy Moss and Fred Taylor making defenses look silly, and a quartet of old quarterbacks stun the football world. Doug Flutie came out of ~~nowhere~~ Canada to lead the Bills to a 7-3 record after being out of the NFL for nine years. Randall Cunningham, who had retired after the ’96 season, came off the bench in ’98 to produce one of the best backup seasons in NFL history. The other two quarterbacks are the stars of this post.

Vinny Testaverde had a very up-and-down career, although he was almost certainly a much better quarterback than you remember. Okay, Testaverde has lost more games than any other quarterback, but he played on some really bad teams throughout his career. Testaverde retired with a career winning percentage of 0.423. In 1998, he started 13 games for the Jets; based on that career winning percentage, we would have expected him to win 5.5 games in 1998. Instead, Testaverde went 12-1 in the regular season, giving him 6.5 more wins than we would expect. If that sounds remarkable to you, it should: that’s the 2nd largest discrepancy of any quarterback in NFL history in a single season (minimum 40 career wins). [continue reading…]

Tagged as: wins

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Matt Ryan has most wins through five years, ranks 7th in Winning Percentage

by Chase Stuart on July 28, 2013

in Checkdowns, Data Dump, Quarterbacks

An interesting tweet from Adam Schefter today: Matt Ryan has 56 regular season wins in his first five seasons, the most in NFL history. Ryan has started 78 games, one of only three quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco) to start at least 75 games in their first five seasons.

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at not just quarterback wins, but quarterback winning percentage (minimum: 15 wins) and wins minus losses (as a compromise between winning percentage and wins). As it turns out, Ryan ranks 1st in wins, 7th in winning percentage, and 1st in wins over losses (or wins over .500) among all quarterbacks to enter the league since 1960.

Quarterback	1st Yr	Win	Loss	Tie	Starts	Win %	W-L	Win Rk	Win % Rk	W-L Rk
Daryle Lamonica	1963	17	1	0	18	0.944	16	119	1	16
Roger Staubach	1969	23	5	0	28	0.821	18	71	2	11
Ken Stabler	1971	20	5	1	26	0.788	15	95	3	19
Tom Brady	2001	48	14	0	62	0.774	34	4	4	1
Jim McMahon	1982	34	12	0	46	0.739	22	24	5	7
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	51	20	0	71	0.718	31	3	6	3
Matt Ryan	2008	56	22	0	78	0.718	34	1	7	1
Kurt Warner	1999	35	14	0	49	0.714	21	20	8	10
Dan Marino	1983	48	21	0	69	0.696	27	4	9	5
Pat Haden	1976	30	13	1	44	0.693	17	42	10	13
Tony Romo	2006	27	12	0	39	0.692	15	56	11	19
Mike Tomczak	1986	20	9	0	29	0.69	11	95	12	32
Stan Humphries	1990	31	14	0	45	0.689	17	35	13	13
Philip Rivers	2006	33	15	0	48	0.688	18	28	14	11
Jay Fiedler	1999	22	10	0	32	0.688	12	82	14	29
Jack Kemp	1960	29	13	1	43	0.686	16	48	16	16
John Elway	1983	46	21	1	68	0.684	25	6	17	6
Mark Rypien	1988	42	20	0	62	0.677	22	8	18	7
Joe Flacco	2008	54	26	0	80	0.675	28	2	19	4
Donovan McNabb	1999	43	21	0	64	0.672	22	7	20	7
Doug Flutie	1986	16	8	0	24	0.667	8	126	21	43
Dave Krieg	1981	19	10	0	29	0.655	9	103	22	35
Brad Johnson	1996	15	8	0	23	0.652	7	131	23	50
David Woodley	1980	30	16	1	47	0.649	14	42	24	22
Jay Schroeder	1985	31	17	0	48	0.646	14	35	25	22
Elvis Grbac	1995	16	9	0	25	0.64	7	126	26	50
Vince Ferragamo	1979	16	9	0	25	0.64	7	126	26	50
Neil O'Donnell	1991	39	22	0	61	0.639	17	14	28	13
Vince Young	2006	30	17	0	47	0.638	13	42	29	25
Rex Grossman	2003	19	11	0	30	0.633	8	103	30	43
Terry Bradshaw	1970	32	19	0	51	0.627	13	32	31	25
Bernie Kosar	1985	39	23	1	63	0.627	16	14	32	16
Jim Harbaugh	1988	23	14	0	37	0.622	9	71	33	35
Michael Vick	2001	31	19	1	51	0.618	12	35	34	29
Steve Grogan	1975	41	26	0	67	0.612	15	12	35	19
Joe Namath	1965	37	23	4	64	0.609	14	17	36	22
Brett Favre	1992	37	24	0	61	0.607	13	17	37	25
Greg Landry	1968	25	16	2	43	0.605	9	63	38	35
Marc Bulger	2002	36	24	0	60	0.6	12	19	39	29
Bert Jones	1973	33	22	0	55	0.6	11	28	39	32
Ken Anderson	1971	34	23	0	57	0.596	11	24	41	32
Jake Delhomme	1999	29	20	0	49	0.592	9	48	42	35
Steve McNair	1995	29	20	0	49	0.592	9	48	42	35
Eli Manning	2004	42	29	0	71	0.592	13	8	44	25
Tony Eason	1983	26	18	0	44	0.591	8	59	45	43
Chad Pennington	2002	20	14	0	34	0.588	6	95	46	54
Mark Brunell	1995	31	22	0	53	0.585	9	35	47	35
Andy Dalton	2011	18	13	0	31	0.581	5	113	48	57
Eric Hipple	1981	18	13	0	31	0.581	5	113	48	57
Bobby Hebert	1985	29	21	0	50	0.58	8	48	50	43
Randall Cunningham	1985	30	22	1	53	0.575	8	42	51	43
Joe Montana	1979	28	21	0	49	0.571	7	53	52	50
Jim Hart	1967	24	18	3	45	0.567	6	66	53	54
Boomer Esiason	1984	35	27	0	62	0.565	8	20	54	43
Jim Kelly	1986	40	31	0	71	0.563	9	13	55	35
Charley Johnson	1962	26	20	3	49	0.561	6	59	56	54
Drew Bledsoe	1993	42	33	0	75	0.56	9	8	57	35
Troy Aikman	1989	38	30	0	68	0.559	8	16	58	43
John Hadl	1962	23	18	4	45	0.556	5	71	59	57
Virgil Carter	1968	16	13	0	29	0.552	3	126	60	64
Steve Beuerlein	1988	18	15	0	33	0.545	3	113	61	64
Gary Danielson	1977	18	15	0	33	0.545	3	113	61	64
Steve Walsh	1989	19	16	0	35	0.543	3	103	63	64
Kordell Stewart	1997	23	20	0	43	0.535	3	71	64	64
Ken O'Brien	1984	31	27	1	59	0.534	4	35	65	60
Mark Sanchez	2009	33	29	0	62	0.532	4	28	66	60
Jim Everett	1986	34	30	0	64	0.531	4	24	67	60
Joe Kapp	1967	24	21	3	48	0.531	3	66	67	64
Aaron Rodgers	2008	17	15	0	32	0.531	2	119	67	72
Scott Mitchell	1993	17	15	0	32	0.531	2	119	67	72
Brian Griese	1999	27	24	0	51	0.529	3	56	71	64
Quincy Carter	2001	18	16	0	34	0.529	2	113	71	72
Scott Hunter	1971	17	15	3	35	0.529	2	119	73	72
Roman Gabriel	1962	19	17	1	37	0.527	2	103	74	72
Matt Hasselbeck	2001	20	18	0	38	0.526	2	95	75	72
Mike Phipps	1970	19	17	2	38	0.526	2	103	75	72
Peyton Manning	1998	42	38	0	80	0.525	4	8	77	60
Kyle Orton	2005	32	29	0	61	0.525	3	32	78	64
Byron Leftwich	2003	24	22	0	46	0.522	2	66	79	72
Drew Brees	2002	30	28	0	58	0.517	2	42	80	72
Bob Griese	1967	29	27	3	59	0.517	2	48	81	72
Ron Jaworski	1975	17	16	0	33	0.515	1	119	82	82
Aaron Brooks	2000	35	34	0	69	0.507	1	20	83	82
Jay Cutler	2006	34	34	0	68	0.5	0	24	84	84
Doug Williams	1978	33	33	1	67	0.5	0	28	84	84
Neil Lomax	1981	30	30	1	61	0.5	0	42	84	84
Jon Kitna	1997	24	24	0	48	0.5	0	66	84	84
Bill Kenney	1980	23	23	0	46	0.5	0	71	84	84
Brian Sipe	1974	22	22	0	44	0.5	0	82	84	84
Jeff Garcia	1999	35	36	0	71	0.493	-1	20	90	90
Carson Palmer	2004	32	33	0	65	0.492	-1	32	91	90
Joe Ferguson	1973	31	32	0	63	0.492	-1	35	92	90
Daunte Culpepper	2000	28	29	0	57	0.491	-1	53	93	90
Bob Avellini	1975	23	24	0	47	0.489	-1	71	94	90
Tommy Kramer	1977	22	24	0	46	0.478	-2	82	95	95
Kyle Boller	2003	20	22	0	42	0.476	-2	95	96	95
Trent Dilfer	1994	31	35	0	66	0.47	-4	35	97	99
Don Majkowski	1987	21	24	1	46	0.467	-3	89	98	97
Bubby Brister	1986	21	24	0	45	0.467	-3	89	99	97
Kerry Collins	1995	26	30	0	56	0.464	-4	59	100	99
Phil Simms	1979	23	27	0	50	0.46	-4	71	101	99
Tom Flores	1960	23	28	2	53	0.453	-5	71	102	103
Rodney Peete	1989	21	26	0	47	0.447	-5	89	103	103
David Whitehurst	1977	16	20	1	37	0.446	-4	126	104	99
Steve Bartkowski	1975	22	28	0	50	0.44	-6	82	105	106
Trent Green	1998	22	29	0	51	0.431	-7	82	106	107
Josh Freeman	2009	24	32	0	56	0.429	-8	66	107	111
Steve Fuller	1979	15	20	0	35	0.429	-5	131	107	103
Dave M. Brown	1994	20	27	0	47	0.426	-7	95	109	107
Gus Frerotte	1994	19	26	1	46	0.424	-7	103	110	107
Jason Campbell	2006	27	37	0	64	0.422	-10	56	111	113
Derek Anderson	2006	18	25	0	43	0.419	-7	113	112	107
Charlie Batch	1998	19	27	0	46	0.413	-8	103	113	111
Tony Banks	1996	25	36	0	61	0.41	-11	63	114	115
Jeff Blake	1994	21	31	0	52	0.404	-10	89	115	113
Jim Zorn	1976	28	44	0	72	0.389	-16	53	116	124
Dan Pastorini	1971	21	33	0	54	0.389	-12	89	116	118
Warren Moon	1984	26	42	0	68	0.382	-16	59	118	124
Alex Smith	2005	19	31	0	50	0.38	-12	103	119	118
Jake Plummer	1997	25	41	0	66	0.379	-16	63	120	124
Matthew Stafford	2009	17	28	0	45	0.378	-11	119	121	115
Jim Plunkett	1971	23	38	0	61	0.377	-15	71	122	121
Fran Tarkenton	1961	23	39	3	65	0.377	-16	71	123	124
Tim Couch	1999	22	37	0	59	0.373	-15	82	124	121
Rick Mirer	1993	20	34	0	54	0.37	-14	95	125	120
Sam Bradford	2010	15	26	1	42	0.369	-11	131	126	115
Richard Todd	1976	19	34	0	53	0.358	-15	103	127	121
Chris Miller	1987	20	36	0	56	0.357	-16	95	128	124
Joey Harrington	2002	23	43	0	66	0.348	-20	71	129	130
Mike Pagel	1982	15	31	1	47	0.33	-16	131	130	124
Vinny Testaverde	1987	19	39	0	58	0.328	-20	103	131	130
Jeff George	1990	21	44	0	65	0.323	-23	89	132	132
Norm Snead	1961	17	41	3	61	0.303	-24	119	133	133
David Carr	2002	22	53	0	75	0.293	-31	82	134	135
Archie Manning	1971	15	43	3	61	0.27	-28	131	135	134

Of course, having a good (or bad) winning percentage early in a quarterback’s career doesn’t tell us how much of a “winner” that quarterback will be in the future.

Tagged as: Matt Ryan, QB Starts, wins

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Matt Stafford has a 17-28 record, which has little predictive value

by Chase Stuart on July 18, 2013

in Data Dump, History, Passing, Quarterbacks

The guy on the right was a loser until he wasn't.

Longtime readers of this blog know that I’m not a big fan of Matt Stafford. Last year, when most people were praising his breakout 2011 season, I questioned whether he was as good as his backers claimed. And, of course, his 2012 performance only raised more questions.

Stafford has a 17-28 career record, which in light of his recent contract extension, has caused people to criticize the Lions for giving big money to a player who is not a “winner.” There are legitimate reasons to criticize Stafford, so why would people fall back on statements like this? I’m sure Lions fans wish the team had won more games under Stafford, but that’s in the past. The real question — and the one faced by Lions management before giving him the extension — is whether his current career record has any predictive value when it comes to his future record.

Since 1960, there have been 77 quarterbacks ^[1]Because their first seasons as starters came after age 25, I decided to eliminate Jeff Garcia, Trent Green, Warren Moon, Kurt Warner, Ed Brown, Tony Romo, Mark Rypien, and Jim Kelly from this … Continue reading who started at least 25 games in their first four seasons and then 25 more games in years five through eight. There’s some survivor bias in the sample — if you stick around for 25+ starts in years five through eight, you’re probably a pretty good quarterback — but there’s not much we can do about that. If you run a regression using winning percentage through four years as your input and winning percentage in years five through eight as your output, you get the following best-fit equation:

0.450 + 0.20 * Old Win %

The correlation coefficient is a tiny 0.04, and the p-value on the “Old Win %” variable is 0.09. Putting aside the questions of statistical significance, there is no practical effect. Stafford has a 0.377 winning percentage, which means this formula would predict him to win 52.6% of his games from 2013 to 2016. Joe Flacco won 68.75% of his games in his first four seasons; this would say he should be expected to win 58.7% of his games in years five through eight. In other words, someone with a great winning percentage should be expected to win only one more game per season than someone with a terrible winning percentage. And that’s even assuming the results are statistically significant, which many would say they are not. ^[2]And, of course, it doesn’t mean that that one extra win is because of the quarterback. Presumably, like in the case of Flacco, those quarterbacks who win games early are on good teams, and … Continue reading
[continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Because their first seasons as starters came after age 25, I decided to eliminate Jeff Garcia, Trent Green, Warren Moon, Kurt Warner, Ed Brown, Tony Romo, Mark Rypien, and Jim Kelly from this study.
↑2	And, of course, it doesn’t mean that that one extra win is because of the quarterback. Presumably, like in the case of Flacco, those quarterbacks who win games early are on good teams, and those teams are more likely to stay good than the bad teams.

Tagged as: Lions, Matt Stafford, wins

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Wins with quarterbacks drafted by that team

by Chase Stuart on October 27, 2012

in Draft, Passing, Statistics

Good stat today by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, who notes that Kansas City has gone 25 years without winning a game with a quarterback drafted by the Chiefs. This Todd Blackledge-led victory over the Chargers in 1987 was the last time a quarterback drafted by the Chiefs won a game in red and gold.

That’s remarkable, but as always, we need context. The table below looks at all team wins from 1988 to 2012 and shows how many games were won by a quarterback drafted by that team. Note: For purposes of this post, I’m considering John Elway, Jim Everett, Kelly Stouffer, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers as having been drafted by the Broncos, Rams, Seahawks, Giants, and Chargers, respectively. Additionally, quarterbacks drafted before 1988 count, but only their wins starting in 1988 count for purposes of the table below. The last two columns show, for each, the quarterback with the most wins among those quarterbacks drafted and not drafted by that team.

Tm	Wins	WbDQB	Perc	MWbDQB	MWbnDQB
NWE	225	212	94.2%	Tom Brady (128)	Doug Flutie (7)
IND	213	181	85.0%	Peyton Manning (141)	Jim Harbaugh (20)
PIT	237	198	83.5%	Ben Roethlisberger (83)	Tommy Maddox (15)
NYG	217	177	81.6%	Eli Manning (74)	Kerry Collins (35)
PHI	225	159	70.7%	Donovan McNabb (92)	Michael Vick (18)
DEN	221	155	70.1%	John Elway (102)	Jake Plummer (39)
TAM	173	117	67.6%	Trent Dilfer (38)	Brad Johnson (26)
CIN	156	104	66.7%	Carson Palmer (46)	Jeff Blake (25)
BUF	203	126	62.1%	Jim Kelly (91)	Drew Bledsoe (23)
SDG	191	118	61.8%	Philip Rivers (66)	Stan Humphries (47)
ATL	184	113	61.4%	Matt Ryan (49)	Chris Chandler (34)
MIA	204	118	57.8%	Dan Marino (99)	Jay Fiedler (36)
WAS	180	104	57.8%	Mark Rypien (45)	Brad Johnson (17)
DAL	204	115	56.4%	Troy Aikman (94)	Tony Romo (50)
NYJ	179	99	55.3%	Chad Pennington (32)	Vinny Testaverde (35)
TEN	216	119	55.1%	Steve McNair (76)	Warren Moon (51)
CLE	127	68	53.5%	Bernie Kosar (29)	Derek Anderson (16)
DET	150	80	53.3%	Rodney Peete (21)	Scott Mitchell (27)
MIN	214	108	50.5%	Daunte Culpepper (38)	Warren Moon (21)
JAX	139	70	50.4%	David Garrard (39)	Mark Brunell (63)
BAL	145	73	50.3%	Joe Flacco (49)	Steve McNair (15)
ARI	149	71	47.7%	Jake Plummer (30)	Kurt Warner (27)
CHI	196	88	44.9%	Jim Harbaugh (35)	Jay Cutler (29)
STL	162	65	40.1%	Jim Everett (38)	Marc Bulger (41)
SFO	229	83	36.2%	Alex Smith (37)	Steve Young (89)
HOU	71	24	33.8%	David Carr (22)	Matt Schaub (38)
GNB	231	69	29.9%	Aaron Rodgers (45)	Brett Favre (160)
CAR	126	32	25.4%	Kerry Collins (22)	Jake Delhomme (53)
SEA	186	36	19.4%	Rick Mirer (20)	Matt Hasselbeck (69)
OAK	177	20	11.3%	Steve Beuerlein (8)	Rich Gannon (45)
NOR	199	2	1.00%	Danny Wuerffel (2)	Drew Brees (64)
KAN	202	0	0.00%	--	Trent Green (48)

As bad as the Chiefs record has been, the Saints record isn’t any better. In fact, since Archie Manning’s last game for the Saints, New Orleans has only drafted two quarterbacks – Dave Wilson and Danny Wuerffel – who have started and won a game for the team. JaMarcus Russell couldn’t even break the Raiders list, ending his career with seven wins. Two other interesting notes. Tony Romo is the only undrafted quarterback in the league currently starting. And of the 32 starting quarterbacks, three of them — Michael Vick, Matt Schaub, and Matt Ryan — were drafted by the Falcons.

Tagged as: quarterbacks, wins

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