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Two years ago, I wrote this post titled “Take Away His X Best Carries and He’s Average.” The idea was simple: Suppose you sort each running back’s carries in descending order by yards gained. How many carries would we need to take away from him to drop his production to at or below average?

Browns running back Isaiah Crowell ranked 9th in yards per carry last year, with an impressive 4.81 average gain. But that number may be a bit misleading, to the extent it made you think that Crowell was consistently churning out big gains. Crowell was responsible for the longest run of the season last year, an 85-yard run in week 2 against the Ravens. And, for what it’s worth, it was one of the easiest long runs you’ll ever see:

In the last game of the year, Crowell had a more impressive 67-yard run against the Steelers. But here’s the thing: outside of those two runs, Crowell averaged just 4.08 yards per carry on his other 196 carries.

There were 42 running backs last year who had at least 100 rush attempts; those players averaged 4.19 yards per carry last year. So if you remove Crowell’s two best carries, he falls below that average.

An impressive Powell movement

On the other hand, Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell averaged 4.86 yards per carry last year, and his six best runs went for 44, 38, 33, 26, 25, and 24 yards. Remove those, and Bell still averaged 4.23 yards per carry, which means you need to remove his seven best runs to drop him below average.

Jets running back Bilal Powell was the star of this metric.  He averaged 5.51 yards per carry last year, but he was a consistent producer of big gains.  He had 12 runs of 13+ yards, and you need to remove all 12 to bring Powell below average.  Remove those 12 carries and his average finally dips to 4.16 yards per carry.

Below are the 19 running backs to exceed that 4.19 yards per carry average last year, and the fewest number of carries you would need to remove to bring their production below average:

PlayerTmRushYdsTDYPCNum
Bilal Powellnyj13172235.5112
Ezekiel Elliottdal3221631155.079
LeSean McCoybuf2341267135.419
Jordan Howardchi252131365.218
LeVeon Bellpit261126874.867
Mike Gillisleebuf10157685.706
Mark Ingramnor205104365.095
Jay Ajayimia260127284.894
Devonta Freemanatl2271079114.753
Isaiah Crowellcle19895274.812
Carlos Hydesfo21798864.552
Derrick Henryten11049054.452
DeMarco Murrayten293128794.391
Spencer Warekan21492234.311
Ryan Mathewsphi15566184.261
David Johnsonari2931239164.231

What stands out to you?

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