The Jets are 0-8 and in the pilot’s seat for the #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jaguars have lost seven straight games and have a difficult remaining schedule; Jacksonville is in the co-pilot seat with a realistic chance to take the top spot. It’s difficult to imagine the Jets going 3-5 down the stretch, and even a 2-6 finish may be optimistic. But what if the Jets and Jaguars finish with the same record, either at 1-15 or 2-14? Who would get Trevor Lawrence?
The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, with the team having the easier schedule winning the better draft pick. The logic being if two teams have the same record, the team that did so against a weaker schedule is probably the worse team. So if you are a Jets fan, you probably should be worried that right now, the Jets project to have the toughest schedule in the NFL as of the end of the 2020 season. That leaves no margin for error in the Tank for Trevor. The Jets face the NFC West, the AFC West, the Colts and the Browns, along with the other teams in the AFC East… while also giving 14-16 of those teams one free win. So it’s not surprising that the Jets project to have the toughest schedule.
But is there a change the Jaguars schedule leapfrogs the Jets for the toughest? Let’s compare the two teams schedules.
Ignore the Browns and Chargers
The Jets play all teams in the AFC West while the Jaguars play the full AFC North. But the Jets also play the Browns and the Jaguars also play the Chargers, so these are two common opponents that we can ignore.
There are two other common opponents — the Jets play the Colts and the Jaguars play the Dolphins, but those teams still matter since the other team plays that opponent two times.
The other 14 games
I looked at Football Outsiders projected wins for each team. Here is each opponent for the Jets and Jaguars, from best to worst:
| Team | Opp | Proj W | Team | Opp | Proj W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Pittsburgh Steelers | 13.3 | NYJ | Kansas City Chiefs | 12.5 |
| JAX | Baltimore Ravens | 11.2 | NYJ | Seattle Seahawks | 11.8 |
| JAX | Indianapolis Colts | 10.5 | NYJ | Indianapolis Colts | 10.5 |
| JAX | Indianapolis Colts | 10.5 | NYJ | Buffalo Bills | 10.2 |
| JAX | Green Bay Packers | 10.3 | NYJ | Buffalo Bills | 10.2 |
| JAX | Tennessee Titans | 9.7 | NYJ | Arizona Cardinals | 10 |
| JAX | Tennessee Titans | 9.7 | NYJ | Los Angeles Rams | 9.5 |
| JAX | Chicago Bears | 8.9 | NYJ | Las Vegas Raiders | 8.3 |
| JAX | Miami Dolphins | 8.2 | NYJ | Miami Dolphins | 8.2 |
| JAX | Detroit Lions | 7.5 | NYJ | Miami Dolphins | 8.2 |
| JAX | Minnesota Vikings | 6.5 | NYJ | San Francisco 49ers | 7.9 |
| JAX | Cincinnati Bengals | 5.3 | NYJ | Denver Broncos | 6.4 |
| JAX | Houston Texans | 5.3 | NYJ | New England Patriots | 6.1 |
| JAX | Houston Texans | 5.3 | NYJ | New England Patriots | 6.1 |
| JAX | Total Opp Ws | 122.2 | NYJ | Total Opp Ws | 125.9 |
Obviously the AFC East and AFC South teams will play a big role here. In addition, Jacksonville facing the AFC North certainly helps: the non-Browns teams are projected to win 29.8 games, while the non-Chargers teams in the AFC West are projected to win 27.2 games.
So what could tip the scales?
The Big Game
On November 22nd, the Texans host the Patriots in what is the most impactful remaining game of the season… for the tiebreaker tank. That game double counts as a win or a loss for both teams, as it is one of four AFC East/AFC South matchups this year (the Jets already lost to the Colts and the Jaguars already lost to the Dolphins; the other meaningful game was between Buffalo and Tennessee, which the Titans won). A Patriots win would give the Jaguars some breathing room, while a Houston win might be enough to switch the race into toss-up category.
Other Games To Watch
There are two other big games on the schedule: Pittsburgh @ Buffalo on December 13th, and Baltimore at New England on November 15th. From Jaguars fans perspectives, these are both going to go poorly, but if the AFC East team pulls off either upset, that would be a swing of +3 wins to the Jaguars (since their AFC North opponent would have one fewer win than expected, while the Jets AFC East opponent would have two more wins than expected). Jets fans need the favorites to win these games.
What To Root For
Jets opponents already have 63 wins: the Bills have exceeded expectations, the Seahawks and Chiefs look fantastic, and no team looks terrible. The Jets would be helped by a 49ers collapse following a heavy rash of injuries, as well as by the Broncos and Patriots teams mailing it in with the playoffs looking like a long shot. And, of course, by Buffalo and Indianapolis coming back to the pack.
Jaguars opponents only have 55.5 wins so far, and that’s propped up by Pittsburgh being undefeated. Without question the biggest boon to Jacksonville has been the transformation of Houston and Minnesota from playoff contender to #1 pick contender. The collapse of the Texans and Vikings has been a huge help to Jacksonville’s SOS, but will it continue in the second half?
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.