I have bad news for those of you hoping to get rich by picking games against the spread: it remains very difficult.

In 2017, the Cleveland Browns went 4-12 against the spread, the worst record in the NFL. In 2018, the Browns went 10-6 against the spread. In 2017, the Jets were not very good, but did manage to go 9-6-1 against the spread; last year, the Jets were not very good, and went 5-10-1 against the spread.

Some teams are good both years — the Bears were 9-6-1 against the spread in ’17 and then a league-best 12-4 ATS in ’18 — but there isn’t much of a correlation between year over year records. In fact, the correlation coefficient between records against the spread in 2017 and 2018 was an irrelevant 0.02. The graph below shows each team’s ATS winning percentage in ’17 (X-Axis) and ’18 (Y-Axis). You can see the raw data here.

I will point out a pair of teams that have really struggled against the spread both years, and those are the AFC West cellar dwellers. Denver went 4-11-1 ATS in 2017 and then just 6-9-1 last year, while Oakland went 5-9-2 and 6-10 over the last two seasons. But if you are banking on both of those teams being bad against the spread this year, you should start reading this article again from the top.