The 2015 Cowboys and One Strike Out Wonders

by Chase Stuart on February 25, 2017

In 2014, Dallas, behind Tony Romo, went 12-4 (and 12-3 in Romo starts).

In 2015, with Matt Cassel, Brandon Weeden, and Kellen Moore, the Cowboys went 4-12 (and 3-1 in Romo games).

In 2016, Dallas, with Dak Prescott at quarterback, went 13-3.

So Dallas saw the team’s win total drop by 8 games from ’14 to ’15, and then bounce back up by 9 more games. That’s an average change of 8.5 wins, even more extreme than the Panthers change (in the other direction) we discussed yesterday.

Of course, given the quarterback changes in Dallas, it’s not super surprising to see that big swings in wins totals. The Cowboys are the 3rd team to have an average win swing of 8.5 wins over a 3-year period, with the middle year being really bad. The first two also happened pretty recently:

In 2012, the Texans (with Matt Schaub) went 12-4; in ’13, Schaub’s performance fell through the floor, and Houston went 2-14 (-10). The next year, with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston went 9-7 (+7).

In 2010, with Peyton Manning, the Colts went 10-6. In 2011, without Manning, Indianapolis dropped to 2-14 (-8) behind Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky, and Kerry Collins. Then, with a rookie Andrew Luck, Indianapolis jumped back up to 11-5 (+9).

Search:

Rk	Team	Year N	N-1 W%	Yr N W%	N+ W%	Avg Win Change
1	Dallas Cowboys	2015	0.750	0.250	0.813	-8.50
1	Houston Texans	2013	0.750	0.125	0.563	-8.50
1	Indianapolis Colts	2011	0.625	0.125	0.688	-8.50
4	Miami Dolphins	2007	0.375	0.063	0.688	-7.50
4	Houston Oilers	1994	0.750	0.125	0.438	-7.50
6	New England Patriots	1981	0.625	0.125	0.556	-7.44
7	Kansas City Chiefs	2012	0.438	0.125	0.688	-7.00
7	Baltimore Ravens	2007	0.813	0.313	0.688	-7.00
7	Indianapolis Colts	1991	0.438	0.063	0.563	-7.00
10	New England Patriots	1975	0.500	0.214	0.786	-6.86
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	2003	0.656	0.375	0.938	-6.75
12	Cincinnati Bengals	1987	0.625	0.267	0.750	-6.73
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2009	0.563	0.188	0.625	-6.50
13	Denver Broncos	1999	0.875	0.375	0.688	-6.50
13	Denver Broncos	1990	0.688	0.313	0.750	-6.50
16	San Francisco 49ers	1982	0.813	0.333	0.625	-6.17
17	Carolina Panthers	2014	0.750	0.469	0.938	-6.00
17	Green Bay Packers	2008	0.813	0.375	0.688	-6.00
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2006	0.688	0.250	0.563	-6.00
17	New York Jets	2005	0.625	0.250	0.625	-6.00
17	New Orleans Saints	2005	0.500	0.188	0.625	-6.00
17	San Diego Chargers	2003	0.500	0.250	0.750	-6.00
17	St. Louis Rams	2002	0.875	0.438	0.750	-6.00
17	Chicago Bears	2002	0.813	0.250	0.438	-6.00
17	Carolina Panthers	2001	0.438	0.063	0.438	-6.00
17	Detroit Lions	1992	0.750	0.313	0.625	-6.00
17	Detroit Lions	1979	0.438	0.125	0.563	-6.00

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

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