In light of last night’s surprising results, I can’t get too focused on writing an article about football. There will be really good articles written by smart people out there today, but it all starts and ends with the maps. Here was 2012:
And here is 2016, according to the NYT:
The big changes were in five Big 10 states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. And based on the projected results from the New York Times, we can see the change from 2012 to 2016, from the perspective of the Democrat candidate. I have bolded those five states below:
And here’s the same information in table form:
| State | Obama Final Margin | Clinton Proj Margin | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | -19.63 | -36.40 | -16.77 |
| West Virginia | -26.76 | -42.20 | -15.44 |
| Iowa | 5.81 | -9.50 | -15.31 |
| Rhode Island | 27.46 | 14.50 | -12.96 |
| Maine | 15.29 | 2.40 | -12.89 |
| South Dakota | -18.02 | -29.80 | -11.78 |
| Ohio | 2.98 | -8.50 | -11.48 |
| Hawaii | 42.71 | 32.20 | -10.51 |
| Missouri | -9.38 | -19.10 | -9.72 |
| Michigan | 9.50 | -0.20 | -9.70 |
| Indiana | -10.20 | -19.30 | -9.10 |
| Montana | -13.65 | -21.50 | -7.85 |
| Wisconsin | 6.94 | -0.90 | -7.84 |
| Delaware | 18.63 | 11.40 | -7.23 |
| Kentucky | -22.69 | -29.80 | -7.11 |
| Vermont | 35.60 | 28.50 | -7.10 |
| Mississippi | -11.50 | -18.30 | -6.80 |
| Wyoming | -40.82 | -47.60 | -6.78 |
| New York | 28.18 | 21.50 | -6.68 |
| Pennsylvania | 5.38 | -1.00 | -6.38 |
| Minnesota | 7.69 | 1.50 | -6.19 |
| Alabama | -22.19 | -28.30 | -6.11 |
| Tennessee | -20.40 | -26.20 | -5.80 |
| New Hampshire | 5.58 | 0.10 | -5.48 |
| South Carolina | -10.47 | -15.60 | -5.13 |
| New Jersey | 17.79 | 13.00 | -4.79 |
| Nevada | 6.68 | 2.40 | -4.28 |
| Nebraska | -21.77 | -25.70 | -3.93 |
| Connecticut | 17.33 | 13.80 | -3.53 |
| Arkansas | -23.69 | -26.70 | -3.01 |
| Oklahoma | -33.54 | -36.40 | -2.86 |
| Louisiana | -17.20 | -19.70 | -2.50 |
| Florida | 0.88 | -1.40 | -2.28 |
| New Mexico | 10.15 | 8.30 | -1.85 |
| North Carolina | -2.04 | -3.80 | -1.76 |
| Alaska | -13.99 | -15.60 | -1.61 |
| Colorado | 5.36 | 3.90 | -1.46 |
| Maryland | 26.07 | 25.20 | -0.87 |
| Oregon | 12.09 | 11.50 | -0.59 |
| Illinois | 16.87 | 16.30 | -0.57 |
| Idaho | -31.91 | -31.60 | 0.31 |
| Kansas | -21.72 | -21.00 | 0.72 |
| Virginia | 3.88 | 4.90 | 1.02 |
| Georgia | -7.82 | -5.80 | 2.02 |
| Washington | 14.87 | 17.30 | 2.43 |
| Massachusetts | 23.14 | 27.20 | 4.06 |
| California | 23.12 | 27.90 | 4.78 |
| Arizona | -9.06 | -4.00 | 5.06 |
| District of Columbia | 83.63 | 88.70 | 5.07 |
| Texas | -15.79 | -9.10 | 6.69 |
| Utah | -48.04 | -16.60 | 31.44 |
So, what do you guys think? And, as always, please keep things civil.