A month ago, I looked Jadeveon Clowney’s impressive time in the 40-yard dash. In that post, I argued that all 40-yard times must be adjusted for weight. Well, thanks to the good folks at NFLSavant.com, 40-yard dash times are available for many players going back to 1999. Which made me wonder: which players have posted the best and worst times after adjusting for weight?

After playing around with the data, I noticed that two other variables were correlated with 40-yard dash times: height and year. The best way to explain the relationship is through the best-fit linear regression formula, which is:

40 yard time = 10.0084 – 0.00326 * Year – 0.00214 * Height + 0.00605 * Weight

What does that mean? For every year since 1999, the average time has been increased by three thousands of a second. That may not seem like very much, but it does make a 4.45 time from 1999 equivalent to a 4.40 time today. Similarly, taller players have an advantage, to the tune of two thousands of a second per inch. The effect is so tiny not to matter, but an extra eight inches means you should expect a 4.5 to turn into a 4.48. ^[1]In retrospect, I think this understates the effect of height. There are enough tall, slow quarterbacks — who are really outliers on the speed scale, since they are not particularly heavy … Continue reading The big variable, of course, remains player weight. A 6’5, 260 pound player in 2014 would be expected to run the 40 in 4.85 seconds; make that player weigh 220 pounds, and his expected time drops to 4.61.

Courtesy of the data from NFL Savant, I calculated the expected 40-yard dash time of about 4500 players since 1999; the expected time is based solely on the formula presented at the top of this post. A couple of disclaimers: I’ve tried to link each player to their appropriate PFR page, but there is some name overlap, so forgive any errors. Also, in order to make the tables sort correctly, I’ve included an 8 for the round of any undrafted player or 2014 prospect.

Quarterbacks

Michael Vick is rightly considered the fastest quarterback ever — his blistering 4.33 time in the 40 has not been matched, even by an Olympic-caliber athlete like RG3. But Daunte Culpepper weighed 45 pounds more than Vick and took only 0.19 seconds longer to run 40 yards. According to the regression (and common sense), that’s the more impressive feat.

If you sort in reverse order, you’ll see that the 2nd worst 40 time came from Tom Brady. Not only was this the 2nd worst time among quarterbacks, Brady’s 5.28 was the 4th worst of any player at the combine, after adjusting for height, weight, and year. The only players he bested? Chris Redman and a pair of nondescript guards.

Running backs

Again, we see the impact of including weight in the formula, as a journeyman fullback had the most impressive time. Dan Alexander remains the third heaviest player (after Dwight Freeney and Bryan Thomas) to run the dash in under 4.5 seconds. Running back, even more than most positions, is one where athletes carry the day. Only one running back drafted in the first round had a below-average 40 time: Mark Ingram. And in case you’re wondering, Adrian Peterson’s 4.4 time, while very good, was not extraordinary for a 217-pound player.

Among first-round backs, the most impressive times came from Kevin Jones, Ronnie Brown, and Jonathan Stewart, so it’s not as though the 40 is a fool-proof measure, either. I was a bit surprised to see that C.J. Spiller didn’t rank higher, but he came in at only 196 pounds. He was one of just four running backs drafted in the first round at under 200 (Trung Canidate, Chris Johnson, and Jahvid Best).

Wide Receivers

Were you expecting someone other than Megatron at the top of this list? Well, he’s tied with former Razorback quarterback-turned-wide receiver-turned Jaguars flameout Matt Jones for the most impressive 40-yard time among receivers. It’s been a long time since I’ve heard the name Tyrone Calico, and fantasy players remember how it seemed as though he was the “sleeper to watch” every year. Andre Johnson and Vincent Jackson are not necessarily known for their speed anymore, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t blazing fast at the combine. Both came in at 0.31 seconds faster than expected. Oh, and you’ll notice that Delanie Walker, here listed with the wide receivers, cracked a 4.5 despite weighing 240 pounds.

Only a few first round picks had below-average times: the worst of the bunch was Kendall Wright, who seems to be bucking the bust trend set by Michael Clayton, Troy Edwards, and Freddie Mitchell.

Tight Ends

Vernon Davis isn’t just the leader among tight ends: he posted the single most impressive 40 of any player since 1999. After Davis, the next best time came from Jimmy Graham. Sometimes, combine superstars with little track record translate pretty well at the next level. The top time in 2014 came from Florida transfer A.C. Leonard, who hopes his impressive 40 can resurrect his draft stock.

Offensive Tackles

Maryland is quite the breeding ground for 40-yard stars, with Davis and Bruce Campbell being two of only five players to outrun their projections by 0.44 seconds, not to mention a top receiver time from Darrius Heyward-Bey. At tackle, crazy 40 times tend to make the news, so you probably remember the hoopla from Terron Armstead and Lane Johnson last year.

Guards/Centers

Also the fastest person to be that guy.
Defensive Ends

Clowney’s time was impressive, but it just barely cracks the top ten. While his 4.53 time was outstanding, the defensive end position has been full of freak athletes. Even last year, Margus Hunt — the Estonian who was drafted by the Bengals — took just 0.07 more seconds while carrying another 11 pounds of muscle. And despite his 6’8 frame, Hunt also did 38 reps on the bench press, compared to Clowney’s 21.

Only one first rounder — Cal’s Andre Carter, who wound up recording 80.5 sacks in his career — finished with a below-average time in the 40. I was surprised to see that Aaron Maybin ran such a slow time, as he has the reputation of being a speed demon (and little else). Then I checked: after running at 4.78 at the combine, he ran a 4.59 at his Pro Day.

Defensive Tackles

Pittsburgh’s Aaron Donald was the combine MVP this year, but what’s really crazy is that a decade ago, Tank Johnson ran essentially the same time despite weighing 19 more pounds. Johnson’s performance was the best by any defensive player in the last 15 years. Dontari Poe was the combine superstar of 2012, and is now a Chiefs Pro Bowler. Gerald McCoy is one of the best gap penetrating linemen in the league, but it took him over five seconds to run the forty. You can file this as Exhibit 239 that defensive tackles don’t need to run 40 yards quickly to be great.

Outside Linebackers

A couple of freaks show up in the top ten — Von Miller and Jevon Kearse — but there are a fair number of busts in here, too. Pass rushers seem to be among the hardest players to project, and blazing 40 times is the norm for outside linebackers. The one exception in the first round was Jarvis Jones, who had a miserable combine, highlighted by his 40 time.

Inside Linebackers

It’s easy to think of Patrick Willis and Jerod Mayo as big thumpers, but both players ran 4.5 40s. The third-worst time belongs to Vontaze Burfict, who fell from potential first round pick to undrafted free agent in the span of about five months. Of course, Burfict has rebounded quite nicely in Cincinnati.

Cornerbacks

Who else but Patrick Peterson? For cornerbacks, the 40-yard time is considered crucial, but don’t forget about Joe Haden. The top cornerback prospect of 2010, Haden had an unimpressive 4.52 time in the 40 despite clocking in at 193 pounds. That hasn’t stopped him from developing into one of the top corners in the game.

Safeties

Ahh, Taylor Mays. The former Trojan star lit up the combine four years ago, and many expected new Seahawks coach Pete Carroll to draft him. In the first round, Seattle drafted a safety, but instead chose Texas product Earl Thomas (who was listed with the cornerback group). Wise choice, Pete.