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On Monday, I looked at the SOS-adjusted Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt ratings of every quarterback and defense in the NFL in 2014. And just like last year, I want to follow that post by looking at the best and worst games of the year, from the perspectives of both the quarterbacks and the defenses.

Let’s start with the top 100 passing games from 2014. The top spot belongs to Ben Roethlisberger, for his scorched-earth performance against Indianapolis. The Steelers star threw for 522 yards and 6 touchdowns on just 49 pass attempts with no sacks or interceptions. For the game, that means Roethlisberger averaged 13.10 ANY/A. The league-average last season was 6.13 ANY/A, which means Roethlisberger was 6.97 ANY/A above average. Now since the game came against a Colts team that was 0.28 ANY/A worse than average last year, we have to reduce that by the same number. That puts Roethlisberger at 6.70 ANY/A above expectation; multiply that by his 49 dropbacks, and he produced 328 adjusted net yards of value above average after adjusting for strength of schedule. That was easily the top game of 2014.

After Roethlisberger, the next best games from 2014 came from… the 2015 Jets quarterbacks?

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a 6-touchdown game on just 33 pass attempts, which is really impressive even if the opponent was Tennessee. And Geno Smith threw for 358 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 25 pass attempts against Miami in week 17, giving him the third best game of the year. Roethlisberger leads the way with eight games in the top 100, followed by Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck (seven each).

What about the worst games of the year? As bad as Andy Dalton was in a Thursday Night game against the Browns — and he was really, really bad — it wasn’t the worst game of the year, at least once you adjust for strength of schedule. The Browns ranked 4th in SOS-adjusted ANY/A last year, giving Dalton’s performance a bit of a boost. As a result, the worst performance belongs to Matt Cassell. The Vikings quarterback dropped back 42 times against the Patriots in week 2, and gained just 163 net yards, while throwing four interceptions (and one touchdown). That’s an ANY/A average of just 0.07; throw in a modest SOS adjustment, and Cassel still produced -240 yards of value on that day. Here are the worst 100 passing games of the year:

Blake Bortles leads the way here with eight bottom-100 games, followed closely by Josh McCown‘s seven. Honorable mention goes to Mike Vick, who saw meaningful time in five games and three of those make the above table.

Best Defensive Performances

What about the best defensive games of the year? We can calculate this just as easily, although keep the PseudoQB footnote from last year in mind. The best game by any pass defense in 2014 came by the Bills against Aaron Rodgers. That day, Rodgers dropped back 43 times and gained just 175 net yards, while throwing no touchdwosna nd two interceptions. Buffalo held him to a 1.98 ANY/A average; given the SOS — i.e., facing Aaron Rodgers — that was an incredible performance, and the Bills pass defense provided 287 adjusted net yards of value over expectation. [1]The mathy dirty work: The NFL average ANY/A was 6.13, so Rodgers fell 4.15 ANY/A below average in this game. Since Rodgers himself was 2.52 ANY/A better than average on the season, Buffalo’s … Continue reading

That was one of 8 top-100 performances produced by the Bills defense last year. Seattle had seven such games, while Cleveland, San Francisco, and Denver had six each.

What about the worst defensive performances? That honor belongs to Miami in the aforementioned game against Geno Smith. Once you adjust for SOS, the Dolphins allowing Geno Smith to torch them is even worse than what the Colts allowed Roethlisberger to do:

The Saints and Bears lead the way with six bottom-100 performances. That’s probably not too surprising to anyone who watched those defenses last year.

References

References
1 The mathy dirty work: The NFL average ANY/A was 6.13, so Rodgers fell 4.15 ANY/A below average in this game. Since Rodgers himself was 2.52 ANY/A better than average on the season, Buffalo’s pass defense gets a +6.67 ANY/A grade in this game. Over the course of 43 dropbacks, that’s worth 287 ANY of value.
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