The Best Punt Returners in NFL History

by Chase Stuart on March 17, 2014

Six years ago, I wrote a series of posts looking at the best returners in NFL history. Today, I want to update that list by examining the best punt returners in NFL history. As with most statistics, yards per punt return has fluctuated throughout most of NFL history. The graph below shows the average in this metric from 1941 through 2013:

I’m not quite sure why the average was so high in the ’40s, but I believe the dropoff in 1952 came when the NFL started recording fair catches in the denominator (I’m not sure when that stopped, either). Regardless of the reason, it’s clear that we need to adjust punt return averages for era. So here’s what I did:

1) Assign 15 yards for every punt return touchdown. ^[1]Why 15 yards? That’s a good question. Generally, we credit a player with 20 yards for every touchdown, but special teams touchdowns are less valuable than offensive touchdowns. That’s … Continue reading

2) Calculate each player’s Adjusted Yards per Punt Return for each season, defined as simply (Punt Return Yards + 15*PRTDs) / Punt Returns.

3) Subtract the league average AY/PR rate from each player’s AY/PR average.

4) Multiply that result by the player’s number of punt returns, to produce a value-over-average statistic.

There are lots of drawbacks to this method — and I mention some of them at the end of this post — but I think it’s an improvement over the current ways in which we measure punt returners.

Let’s apply this formula to the 2013 season. The top punt returner by this metric was Dexter McCluster, who returned 58 punts for 686 yards and 2 touchdowns, numbers which led the league on all counts. That means McCluster averaged 12.3 Adjusted Yards per Punt Return; since the league average in 2013 was 9.6 AY/PR, that means McCluster produced 161 extra yards of value (had the AP selected an All-Pro punt returner, McCluster would have been the likely pick). The table below shows the amount of value added by every punt return in 2013; by default, the table displays the top 10, but you can change that number in the dropdown box on the left. As always, the table is fully sortable and searchable, too.

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Rk	Player	Age	Tm	PR	Yards	TDs	AY/PR	VALUE
1	Dexter McCluster	24	KAN	58	686	2	12.3	161
2	Tandon Doss	24	BAL	23	359	1	16.3	154
3	Marcus Sherels	26	MIN	22	335	1	15.9	139
4	Antonio Brown	25	PIT	32	409	1	13.3	118
5	Jeremy Ross	25	2TM	17	263	1	16.4	115
6	Devin Hester	31	CHI	18	256	1	15.1	99
7	Golden Tate	25	SEA	51	585	0	11.5	97
8	Micah Hyde	23	GNB	24	296	1	13	81
9	Dwayne Harris	26	DAL	20	256	1	13.6	80
10	Ted Ginn Jr.	28	CAR	26	316	0	12.2	67

For McCluster, much of his value was the result of high volume, although maintaining above-average play over 58 punt returns is very impressive. Jeremy Ross, Tandon Doss, Marcus Sherels, and Devin Hester all averaged at least 15 AY/PR over 15+ carries, which puts them in the discussion for best punt returners of the year. And Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown, in addition to being the number one receiver, was also the fourth-best punt returner. That’s a pretty good year.

The two names at the bottom of the list are interesting ones. The punt returner who added the least value in 2013 was Leodis McKelvin, who gained just 180 yards on 32 punt returns, providing -126 yards of value. That’s pretty incredible, because McKelvin ranked as the number one punt returner in the NFL in 2012 according to this metric. The number one punt returner in 2011 was Patrick Peterson, and that was a season for the ages. But in 2013, Peterson graded as the second worst punt returner, picking up only 198 yards on 33 returns.

Let’s take a look at the 200 best punt return seasons in football history using this metric. As you can see, Peterson’s 2011 season ranks as the third best ever:

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Rk	Player	Year	Age	Tm	PR	Yards	TDs	AY/PR	VALUE
1	Desmond Howard	1996	26	GNB	58	875	3	15.9	330
2	Devin Hester	2007	25	CHI	42	651	4	16.9	321
3	Patrick Peterson	2011	21	ARI	44	699	4	17.3	312
4	Devin Hester	2010	28	CHI	33	564	3	18.5	288
5	Billy Johnson	1975	23	HOU	40	612	3	16.4	287
6	J.T. Smith	1980	25	KAN	40	581	2	15.3	276
7	Rodger Bird	1967	24	OAK	46	612	0	13.3	273
8	LeRoy Irvin	1981	24	RAM	46	615	3	14.3	260
9	Billy Grimes	1950	23	GNB	29	555	2	20.2	258
10	Billy Johnson	1977	25	HOU	35	539	2	16.3	256
11	Jermaine Lewis	2000	26	BAL	36	578	2	16.9	244
12	Rick Upchurch	1976	24	DEN	39	536	4	15.3	238
13	Leodis McKelvin	2012	27	BUF	23	431	2	20	233
14	Speedy Duncan	1965	23	SDG	30	464	2	16.5	233
15	Brian Mitchell	1991	23	WAS	45	600	2	14	232
16	George Atkinson	1968	21	OAK	36	490	2	14.4	231
17	Dick Christy	1961	26	NYT	18	383	2	22.9	230
18	Devin Hester	2006	24	CHI	47	600	3	13.7	227
19	Mike Haynes	1976	23	NWE	45	608	2	14.2	225
20	DeSean Jackson	2009	23	PHI	29	441	2	16.2	222
21	Bob Hayes	1968	26	DAL	15	312	2	22.8	222
22	Eddie Brown	1976	24	WAS	48	646	1	13.8	220
23	Dante Hall	2003	25	KAN	29	472	2	17.3	219
24	Pat Studstill	1962	24	DET	29	457	0	15.8	218
25	Michael Lewis	2002	31	NOR	44	625	1	14.5	216

Desmond Howard’s 1996 season was incredible. His record 875 punt return yards will be tough to beat: he played for the best team in the league, and the Packers defense gave him 58 punts to return. To break that record, a punt returner will almost have to play for a team with a great defense, as it’s going to be hard to do much better than Howard’s 15.1 yards per punt return average. Then, in the playoffs, Howard continued his dominant return ways. He scored the first touchdown of the game against the 49ers via a punt return, and added a 99-yard kickoff return in the Super Bowl, which led to him capturing MVP honors. Also of note: Football Perspective favorite Pat Studstill’s 1962 season cracks the top 25.

The final step in this process is to convert these ratings into a career grade. The simplest thing to do would be to sum the values produced by each returner in every season of their career. I did that, and I’ve included that result in the table below, but I also included another measure that I think works better. Adding the grades for each season tends to award longevity over dominance, and a really bad season cancels out a really good season. Some might think those are good aspects of the system, but when we think of the best returners, we tend to think of them at their best. So the formula I used was to take 100% of each punt returner’s best season, 90% of their second best, 80% of their third best, and so on; I also did not include any season where the punt returner had a below-average grade.

Using this formula, Devin Hester grades as the best punt returner ever. Here’s how to read his line: His first year returning punts was in 2006, and his last was in 2013; for his career, he has returned 264 punts for 3,241 yards and 13 touchdowns, giving him a 13.0 AY/PR average. If you sum his values from every season, you get a total of 945, but by my preferred measure, he comes out with a value of 961, making him the best punt returner ever.

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Rk	Player	First Yr	Last Yr	PR	Yards	TDs	AY/PR	Sum	Value
1	Devin Hester	2006	2013	264	3241	13	13	945	961
2	Rick Upchurch	1975	1983	248	3008	8	12.6	981	792
3	Billy Johnson	1974	1988	282	3317	6	12.1	865	770
4	Brian Mitchell	1990	2003	463	4999	9	11.1	680	760
5	Darrien Gordon	1993	2002	314	3601	6	11.8	620	665
6	Desmond Howard	1992	2002	244	2895	8	12.4	585	633
7	Speedy Duncan	1964	1974	202	2201	4	11.2	701	631
8	Jermaine Lewis	1996	2004	295	3282	6	11.4	479	587
9	J.T. Smith	1978	1990	267	2764	4	10.6	557	559
10	Vai Sikahema	1986	1993	292	3169	4	11.1	604	537
11	Jack Christiansen	1951	1957	85	1084	8	14.2	540	512
12	Dave Meggett	1989	1998	349	3708	7	10.9	531	486
13	Dante Hall	2000	2008	216	2261	6	10.9	366	481
14	Mike Fuller	1975	1982	252	2660	2	10.7	526	473
15	Mel Gray	1987	1997	252	2753	3	11.1	476	472
16	Roscoe Parrish	2005	2012	165	1920	3	11.9	445	463
17	Allen Rossum	1998	2009	307	3056	3	10.1	227	442
18	Bill Thompson	1969	1978	157	1814	0	11.6	547	425
19	Dick Christy	1958	1963	67	905	4	14.4	409	422
20	Bob Hayes	1965	1974	104	1158	3	11.6	412	404
21	Henry Ellard	1983	1993	135	1527	4	11.8	379	403
22	Eric Metcalf	1991	2002	351	3453	10	10.3	214	397
23	Tim Brown	1988	2004	326	3320	3	10.3	372	396
24	Dennis Northcutt	2000	2009	255	2592	3	10.3	298	394
25	Deion Sanders	1989	2004	212	2199	6	10.8	280	390

These results seem pretty reasonable to me. Players like Deion Sanders and Gale Sayers were great return men, but don’t rank high on the list for legitimate reasons. With Deion, he was the ultimate high risk/high reward punt returner: his 6 punt return touchdowns is impressive, but he seemed to be shooting for a touchdown or bust on every play. As a result, his average AY/PR is not all that impressive, and he only had one top-200 season (1998). For Sayers, he was more kickoff returner than punt returner, as he only returned 27 punts in his career. I’ll let you guys provide your thoughts on the rest of the list, but I’ll close with some flaws in the methodology.

Factors Adjusted Yards per Punt Return Does Not Incorporate

There are many variables that would go into a proper rating of a punt returner; here are just some of the big ones that are ignored in this system.

Fumbling is the worst thing a punt returner can do, and avoiding fumbling is an important part of being a good returner. Unfortunately, with so many punt returners fumbling on non-punt plays, it’s impossible (at least historically) to separate punt return fumbles from other fumbles. I’ve thrown my hands up and ignored the issue, although with the time and inclination, I could include that data for the 1999 to 2013 seasons.
The yards a player gains on punt returns are not solely attributable to him, of course. The quality of the coaching staff and the strength of his blockers play a huge part in determining how yards any given punt return gains. Similarly, the quality of the opponent and the opposing punter is a factor that is ignored here as well.
A punt returner can “game” the system a bit by being a bit too anxious to call for a fair catch. Similarly, a punt returner who rarely calls fair catches — and instead picks up 3-5 yards — is adding value, but is hurt by this formula.
To the extent punters act sub-optimally by punting out of bounds to avoid allowing a return, the punt returner is not awarded credit in my system for that value he has created.

References[+]

References
↑1	Why 15 yards? That’s a good question. Generally, we credit a player with 20 yards for every touchdown, but special teams touchdowns are less valuable than offensive touchdowns. That’s because a touchdown on 2nd-and-goal is more valuable than a special teams touchdown; if the 2nd-and-goal play is stopped at the 1, the team’s expected value on that possession is lower than the team’s expected value if the punt return is stopped at the 1, because in the latter case, the team still has four downs. In fact, the difference between a 50-yard punt return to the 1 and a 51-yard punt return is pretty small. I thought about giving only 10 yards for every punt return touchdown, but there’s another thing to consider: all punt return yards are devalued for the same reason. The average punt return yard is less valuable than the average yard gained on a play from scrimmage because there’s no possibility that the marginal punt return yard picked up a first down. As a result, I settled on 15, although as you can clearly see, this was just a “this feels right” solution.

Tagged as: Devin Hester, Punt Returners, Returners, Special Teams

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