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The Best Scoring Defenses In NFL History

Head of the LOB

Head of the LOB.

Congratulations to the Seattle Seahawks and their fans on winning Super Bowl XLVIII. With the win, Seattle has confirmed its status as one of the greatest defenses in NFL history. The Seahawks defense produced a game for the ages on Sunday: facing Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and one of the greatest offenses ever, Seattle’s defense outscored Denver’s offense, 9-8. Led by Malcolm Smith, Cliff Avril, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman, the Seahawks stamped their claim with the ’85 Bears, ’00 Ravens, and ’02 Bucs as one of the greatest defenses of the last 30 years.

But today, I want to look at which defenses were the best in regular season history, and see where Seattle stacks up. Bill Barnwell had an interesting post during Super Bowl week. He used the statistical measurement known as the Z-Score to show that Seattle was the tenth best defensive scoring team in NFL history. Don’t be too confused by the idea of a Z-score: in English, this just means that Seattle’s defense — and yes, I am going to conflate the concepts of defense and points allowed throughout this post — was 2.2 standard deviations above average in points allowed, one of just ten teams to ever produce such a result.

So how do we get there? Well, Seattle allowed 14.4 points per game during the regular season. The league average was 23.4 points, which means that Seattle’s defense was 9.0 PPG better than average. The standard deviation of points per game among the 32 NFL defenses in 2013 was 4.08 points per game; therefore, Seattle has a Z-score of 2.20, because the Seahawks allowed points at a rate that was 2.20 standard deviations better than the mean.

Today, I wanted to do the same analysis but adjust for strength of schedule, by deriving offensive and defensive SRS grades. Of course, Pro-Football-Reference has published offensive and defensive SRS grades for awhile, but I decided to crunch the numbers on my own and see if they matched up with what Neil and Mike did (they did). For the uninitiated, SRS stands for Simple Rating System, which is simple to understand but a bit complicated to derive. The SRS is simply margin of victory (or, in the case of offenses and defenses, margin of production above league average) adjusted for strength of schedule. The key is using an iterative process, where, in Excel, we adjust the ratings hundreds of times; after all, to adjust for SOS, you have to adjust for the SOS of each opponent, and the SOS of each opponent’s opponent, and so on.

The table below shows the top 200 scoring defenses since 1932. Here’s how to read the 2002 Bucs line. That season, Tampa Bay allowed 9.4 points per game less than league average. The average defense the Bucs faced — using the iterative method to derive SOS grades — was 0.4 points above average. Therefore, Tampa Bay is credited with an adjusted rating of 9.8 PPG better average. The standard deviation of defensive ratings in the NFL in 2002 was 3.45, giving the Buccaneers a Z-score of 2.83, the highest ever. The table below is fully sortable and searchable, and shows the top 200 defenses.

RkTeamYearGPPG OvAvgSOSAdj PPGLgStDvZ-Score
1TAM2002169.40.49.83.452.83
2KAN1995166.40.46.92.562.68
3BAL2006168.1-0.37.82.992.62
4MIN19701490.19.23.772.43
5CHI1985169.20.39.44.132.28
6DEN197816616.93.122.22
7MIN1971149.40.59.94.482.21
8DEN1977146.62.89.44.242.21
9SEA201316908.94.082.19
10CHI19631411.7-0.810.95.112.13
11KAN1969148.5-0.18.43.972.12
12CAR2013168.30.38.64.082.11
13KAN1997166.20.36.63.122.1
14MIA1998164.71.86.53.122.1
15SFO2011167.9-1.36.63.142.1
16NOR1992166.117.13.372.09
17CHI1988166.8-0.26.63.172.09
18SFO1995165.4-0.15.32.562.07
19PIT1975149-0.28.84.282.06
20GNB20101670.87.93.832.05
21BAL19681410.2-0.39.94.862.04
22RAM19751410.9-2.38.74.282.03
23SEA2012167.40.37.73.822.02
24PIT2010167.50.27.73.832.02
25BUF1988165.40.96.43.172.02
26PIT2008168.10.28.24.092.01
27CLE1994167.5-1.46.13.052.01
28CHI1986168.8-1.17.73.872
29NYJ2009166.70.77.53.741.99
30NWE2006165.80.15.92.991.98
31PHI19491211.3-0.3115.691.93
32KAN196814100.110.15.241.93
33PIT2011168-1.963.141.93
34BAL20001610.4-2.384.181.92
35PHI1980166.60.26.83.611.89
36GNB19621411.7-0.411.35.981.89
37BUF1999166.50.97.43.911.89
38BAL1971149.4-0.98.54.481.89
39GNB1965147.13.410.55.551.89
40MIN19691411.4-0.810.65.661.88
41NYG1993165.9-0.55.42.91.87
42NYJ1998164.71.25.83.121.87
43PIT1976149.30.39.65.171.86
44CHI2005168-1.46.63.591.84
45NYG1990166.90.77.64.151.84
46DET1962149.71.310.95.981.83
47TEN2008167.407.54.091.82
48CHI2001167.5-0.57.13.921.8
49DAL2009165.80.96.73.741.8
50NOR1991165.80.56.33.51.79
51PIT1978166.1-0.65.63.121.78
52DET1970144.81.86.63.771.76
53IND1987155.7-0.15.63.181.76
54SFO2012165.716.73.821.76
55PHI2001167.2-0.46.83.921.74
56CLE1948149.2-0.58.75.061.72
57TAM1999166.10.66.73.911.72
58DEN1984166.10.56.73.891.71
59DET1956124.726.73.931.71
60CLE1953128-174.131.71
61MIA2000166.50.57.14.181.7
62CLE1987155.7-0.35.43.181.7
63PHI1981166.9-0.26.73.941.69
64NYG1938116.3-0.85.53.281.68
65SDG1979164.715.73.421.68
66DEN1979163.725.73.421.66
67BAL19641460.56.43.861.66
68CHI1984165.70.76.43.891.66
69BAL2004164.726.84.081.66
70DAL1978165.3-0.25.23.121.65
71MIA198295.6-0.15.53.341.65
72GNB19661410.1-0.1106.061.65
73TAM1997164.30.85.13.121.65
74GNB1996167.3-0.76.64.021.63
75DAL1993164.40.34.72.91.63
76PIT1994165.6-0.653.051.63
77TEN2000168.7-1.96.84.181.63
78JAX2006163.51.34.92.991.62
79NWE2003166-1.14.92.991.62
80DEN1989166.5-0.85.73.491.62
81WAS1974144.20.44.52.811.62
82SFO2013166.40.26.64.081.62
83DEN2005164.51.35.83.591.61
84PIT1974144.7-0.24.52.811.6
85MIA1983166.2-15.23.231.6
86KAN1979163.71.85.43.421.59
87NWE2004165.21.36.54.081.59
88SDG1961148.8-0.48.45.321.58
89RAM1945104.90.55.43.41.58
90JAX20041642.56.44.081.58
91NYG19441010.5-1.68.95.681.57
92HOU1967148.5-0.18.35.311.57
93CHI2012165.40.563.821.57
94NYG1939117.7-1.36.44.091.55
95ATL1977148-1.46.64.241.55
96GNB1961145.60.96.54.191.55
97WAS198295.9-0.85.23.341.55
98DTX1960146.1-0.163.891.53
99BUF1980164.21.35.53.611.53
100PIT1972147.8-1.26.64.361.51
101PIT1946118.3-0.285.321.51
102NYG1986165.80.15.83.871.51
103MIA1973148.7-0.58.25.461.51
104TAM2003164.30.24.52.991.51
105GNB1964144.51.35.83.861.51
106WAS1943105.8-1.14.63.091.5
107GNB1941115.60.25.73.831.49
108CHI1993164.304.32.91.49
109PIT1979163.71.45.13.421.49
110PIT2001167-1.15.83.921.49
111MIA1972148-1.66.54.361.48
112IND2007165.30.15.43.641.48
113NYJ2004165.20.964.081.48
114CHI19481210.70.210.97.371.48
115DAL1994164.8-0.34.53.051.46
116IND2005165.205.23.591.45
117CLE1951129.3-1.57.85.411.44
118BAL2010165.20.35.53.831.44
119PHI1991163.71.353.51.43
120BUF1964146-0.75.33.711.43
121RAM1974145.3-1.242.811.43
122PHI19501211.21.612.88.941.43
123DET1964143.525.53.861.43
124CLE1946149.9-1.38.66.061.42
125NYG1958127.3-0.474.911.42
126PIT19571250.35.33.731.42
127WAS199116504.93.51.41
128MIA1975144.71.364.281.41
129NYG1981164.60.95.53.941.41
130PHI2007162.92.25.13.641.41
131CAR1996166.8-1.25.64.021.4
132SFO1989164.80.14.93.491.4
133RAM1970144.80.45.33.771.39
134DET1969147.50.47.95.661.39
135DET1938113.70.94.63.281.39
136CLE1947148-175.021.39
137RAM1968146.20.56.74.861.39
138SFO1984167-1.65.43.891.39
139NWE1988162.51.94.43.171.38
140MIA2003164.5-0.44.12.991.37
141CHI19591251.26.24.511.37
142MIN1988165.7-1.44.33.171.37
143BAL2008166.8-1.25.64.091.36
144DAL1995163.30.23.52.561.36
145PIT2004165.8-0.25.64.081.36
146RAM1967147.8-0.975.111.36
147CHI1932145.10.25.23.881.35
148NYG1951128.5-1.27.35.411.35
149WAS1945106.4-1.84.63.41.35
150MIA20061631.142.991.34
151BAL1967147.7-0.96.85.111.34
152BUF2003163.40.642.991.34
153CHI1942118.2-2.85.44.021.34
154SFO1987154.7-0.54.23.181.34
155NYG1959127.2-1.264.511.33
156DTX1962146.5-0.55.94.481.32
157SFO19921640.54.53.371.32
158CLE1989164.7-0.14.63.491.32
159BAL2009165.2-0.24.93.741.31
160DAL1996164.80.55.34.021.31
161CHI1937113.90.34.13.151.31
162DET1952126.30.775.341.31
163NYG1989164.9-0.34.63.491.3
164PHI19481210.2-0.79.67.371.3
165KAN1991163.21.34.53.51.3
166CHI1967146.30.46.65.111.3
167CLE1949127.1-16.14.71.3
168JAX1999167.3-2.25.13.911.29
169WAS1971145.805.84.481.29
170GNB1947124.51.96.34.911.29
171DET1937113.40.643.151.27
172PIT1996164.40.85.14.021.27
173MIA2002162.91.54.43.451.27
174MIN1973147.5-0.575.461.27
175CLE1988162.31.843.171.27
176MIN1975147.7-2.35.44.281.26
177SFO1981165-0.14.93.941.26
178BUF1966144.30.34.63.671.25
179NYJ19851650.15.24.131.25
180OAK2002162.71.64.33.451.25
181NYG19501210.40.711.28.941.25
182GNB1967146.9-0.66.35.111.24
183NOR2013164.40.654.081.23
184OAK1973147-0.36.75.461.23
185SDG2007163.90.54.53.641.22
186RAI1984163.80.94.83.891.22
187SFO19911640.24.33.51.22
188SFO1951124.91.86.65.411.22
189SDG1977142.52.65.24.241.22
190CHI2010164.20.54.73.831.22
191NYG19401130.43.32.741.22
192HOU1975144.40.85.24.281.22
193CAR2009162.22.34.53.741.21
194PHI1992163.40.74.13.371.21
195DET1961143.125.14.191.21
196PIT1990165.1-0.154.151.21
197HOU1980164.8-0.44.43.611.21
198NWE2009163.70.84.53.741.2
199CLE1957125.5-14.53.731.19
200PIT1992164.7-0.743.371.19

Seattle ranks 9th in this metric, showing that they deserve to be remembered as one of the great defenses in league history. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner, and an incredibly deep defensive line combined to create one of the best defenses since the merger. One thing to note: without the second (and third, and fourth, and so on) level adjustments inherent in the SRS process, Seattle’s strength of schedule would look below average. But the offenses Seattle faced played a number of games against Seattle, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Arizona — and all four NFC West defenses ranked in the top 12 in defensive SRS — which makes those offenses look worse than they were. If you want to discuss strength of schedule, you should look at the ’00 Ravens, who fall to 34th on the list after adjusting for the weak offenses that team faced. I should also note that from 2013, Carolina (#12), San Francisco (#82), and New Orleans (#183) make the list of top 200 scoring defenses.

Let’s walk through some of the top teams:

  • It’s hard to find much fault with the ’02 Bucs. Between Warren Sapp, Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber, and John Lynch, the team had five borderline HOF players. Tampa Bay had some dominant defensive seasons — the ’97, ’99, and ’03 teams make the list — but the 2002 team was special. In the playoffs, they were even better.
  • The 1995 Chiefs are a bit of an oddball. That season, offensive numbers exploded, and Kansas City is one of just six teams to allow 240+ points and lead the league in scoring defense. The standard deviation among defensive ratings was super tiny that season, which inflates the Chiefs’ Z-score (Kansas City was only 6.9 PPG above average). Neil Smith, Dan Saleaumua, Derrick Thomas, and Dale Carter were Pro Bowl players, but this was not an all-time great defense.
  • The ’06 Ravens come up pretty often, as Baltimore ranked 2nd in both YPC allowed and NY/A allowed, while ranking 1st in yards allowed, 1st in points allowed and 2nd in turnovers. Coached by Rex Ryan, this was a dominant unit with a rookie Haloti Ngata, in-their-primes Terrell Suggs, Adalius Thomas, Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, Chris McAlister, and Ed Reed, and good supporting players like linemen Trevor Pryce and Kelly Gregg. Had these Ravens won a Super Bowl, they’d be remembered with their ’00 brethren.
  • The Purple People Eaters are well-represented. The 1970 and 1971 teams rank in the top ten, and the 1969 team was arguably better than both! That year, Minnesota made the Super Bowl on the back of a dominant defense that allowed 11.4 points per game fewer than average, the third best rate since 1932. That was the result of a favorable schedule, but even the adjusted result of +10.6 points per game is unbelievable. The only reason the Vikings don’t look better is because in 1969, the NFL was a smaller league and the standard deviation was a wide 5.66 PPG.
  • A few Bears teams also make the list, with the ’85 team coming in 5th place. The 1986 team actually allowed fewer points, but note that (1) the league average was 1 point per game lower in 1986, making that result less impressive, and (2) the ’86 Bears faced a much easier schedule. If you want to argue that the ’85 Bears wasn’t the best Chicago defense ever, you’re better off backing the ’63 version that was an incredible 10.9 PPG better than average after adjusting for strength of schedule (one could make the same claim about the less-heralded ’48 team).
  • I like the idea of using the Z-score, but it’s far from clear that it’s the best way to analyze the results. Simply looking at points per game above average is just as (and, some would argue, more) legitimate. In that light, the 1950 Eagles rank #1. In fact, that Philadelphia team deserves more discussion.

The 1950 Eagles were coached by Greasy Neale, and began the season in ignominious fashion. The prior season, with yet another absurdly dominant defense, Philadelphia won the NFL championship by shutting out the Rams. But in the season opener, the Eagles were embarassed by Otto Graham and the upstart Cleveland Browns, playing their first NFL game after the AAFC “merged” with the senior league. Not quite prepared for the high-powered Cleveland offense, Graham went 21/38 for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns, numbers that look pretty good even today.

Over the team’s final 11 games, Philadelphia allowed just 9.6 points per game. Now, it’s easy to think “hey, it’s 1950, how impressive is that?” Well, in 2013, teams averaged 23.4 points per game. In 1950, teams averaged…. 22.9 points per game. In other words, 9.6 points per game was absurdly dominant even in 1950. The strange thing about this team was that Philadelphia had a habit of blowing out teams or losing in close games. The Eagles lost by 2 points to the Steelers, two to the Giants at home, four to the Giants on the road, four to the Cardinals, and six in the rematch in Cleveland. Meanwhile, every game Philadelphia won was by at least a touchdown. As a result, the Eagles went 6-6, despite the team’s average win coming by a score of 35-9. If they’re not the greatest .500 team ever, I’m not sure who is.

We can use the same method to analyze the worst defenses ever:

RkTeamYearGPPG OvAvgSOSAdj PPGLgStDvZ-Score
1BAL198116-12.60.6-123.94-3.06
2TAM198616-9-1.8-10.83.87-2.79
3NOR198016-100.6-9.43.61-2.6
4WAS195412-14.1-1.9-16.16.33-2.54
5NWE197214-11.60.6-11.14.36-2.53
6IND200116-10.20.3-9.83.92-2.51
7SEA197614-11.5-1.4-12.95.17-2.5
8DET200916-9.40.2-9.23.74-2.46
9CIN19348-19.61.6-187.34-2.45
10HOU198316-6.9-0.9-7.93.23-2.44
11DAL196012-9.20.5-8.73.69-2.35
12RAM19829-7.6-0.1-7.83.34-2.32
13STL200016-8.8-0.7-9.54.18-2.27
14NYG196614-14.10.3-13.76.06-2.27
15HOU197314-12.50.1-12.35.46-2.26
16DTX195212-13.31.3-125.34-2.25
17NOR197714-6.8-2.6-9.44.24-2.22
18DET200816-10.31.2-9.14.09-2.22
19ATL199616-8.4-0.5-8.94.02-2.21
20GNB198316-5.6-1.5-7.13.23-2.21
21CRD194410-14.82.4-12.45.68-2.18
22HOU19829-7.10-7.13.34-2.12
23WAS194712-8.6-1.7-10.44.91-2.11
24CIN199916-7.9-0.3-8.23.91-2.1
25SFO200416-6.8-1.8-8.64.08-2.1
26MIN198416-90.9-8.23.89-2.1
27WAS199416-5.5-0.9-6.43.05-2.1
28TAM201116-8.72.1-6.63.14-2.09
29ARI200316-7.41.2-6.22.99-2.08
30CIN199816-70.5-6.53.12-2.08
31PIT193311-9.2-0.9-10.14.89-2.06
32SDG200316-6.70.6-6.22.99-2.06
33PIT194111-8.60.8-7.93.83-2.05
34DEN201016-7.4-0.4-7.83.83-2.03
35SEA197714-9.50.9-8.64.24-2.02
36CIN200216-6.8-0.1-6.93.45-2.01
37BUF197114-8.8-0.1-8.94.48-1.99
38DEN196414-80.7-7.33.71-1.97
39CIN199116-8.21.3-6.93.5-1.97
40ARI200016-7-1.1-8.14.18-1.93
41DET200216-6.5-0.1-6.73.45-1.93
42TEN201216-6.7-0.7-7.43.82-1.93
43WAS199816-5-0.9-63.12-1.92
44BAL197816-82-63.12-1.92
45DEN196314-10.60-10.65.59-1.9
46NYJ199616-7.90.3-7.64.02-1.9
47ATL199216-7.10.7-6.43.37-1.9
48HOU196614-5.8-1.1-6.93.67-1.88
49CLE199016-8.81-7.84.15-1.88
50NYG196414-6.5-0.8-7.23.86-1.87
51ATL198715-7.51.5-5.93.18-1.87
52ARI199816-2.3-3.5-5.83.12-1.86
53ARI201016-5.1-2-7.13.83-1.86
54PIT193512-6.5-1.2-7.74.17-1.85
55ATL200316-5.50.1-5.42.99-1.82
56STL199516-4.60-4.62.56-1.81
57ATL199316-5.40.1-5.22.9-1.8
58BOS197014-6.5-0.2-6.83.77-1.8
59CHR194714-9.20.2-95.02-1.79
60STL200716-5.7-0.8-6.53.64-1.79
61SFO197916-5.9-0.2-6.13.42-1.79
62STL200516-6.2-0.2-6.43.59-1.78
63SDG198316-71.3-5.73.23-1.78
64MIN200216-6-0.1-6.13.45-1.76
65CIN199416-5.1-0.3-5.43.05-1.76
66NOR199916-6.3-0.6-6.93.91-1.76
67SFO200616-5.1-0.2-5.22.99-1.75
68SDG198516-5.7-1.6-7.24.13-1.75
69IND199316-4.9-0.1-5.12.9-1.74
70RAM193811-6.10.3-5.73.28-1.74
71CHI201316-6.5-0.6-7.14.08-1.74
72SFO199916-7.50.7-6.83.91-1.73
73BUF197014-4.8-1.7-6.53.77-1.73
74CRD195712-5.1-1.3-6.43.73-1.73
75HOU196514-9.2-0.2-9.45.43-1.72
76PIT198816-6.10.6-5.53.17-1.72
77BUF198416-7.20.5-6.73.89-1.72
78STL200816-70-74.09-1.71
79DET198715-4-1.4-5.43.18-1.71
80CHI199716-5.60.2-5.33.12-1.71
81TAM197614-10.31.4-8.85.17-1.71
82NWE199016-7.80.7-7.14.15-1.7
83CIN199216-4-1.7-5.73.37-1.7
84IND201116-4.7-0.6-5.33.14-1.7
85ATL198916-6.70.8-5.93.49-1.69
86CLE197414-6.41.6-4.72.81-1.69
87BAL199616-7.10.3-6.84.02-1.69
88IND199816-6.51.2-5.33.12-1.69
89PHI194011-4.1-0.5-4.62.74-1.69
90MIN201316-6.6-0.3-6.94.08-1.68
91CRD195812-7.1-1.2-8.24.91-1.68
92CIN198516-5.8-1.1-6.94.13-1.67
93NYJ197514-10.33.2-7.14.28-1.66
94PHI193612-5.3-0.7-63.61-1.65
95BAL195012-15.60.8-14.88.94-1.65
96CLE199916-6.50-6.53.91-1.65
97IND199116-4.8-0.9-5.73.5-1.64
98ATL198516-6.7-0.1-6.84.13-1.64
99GNB195612-8.11.7-6.43.93-1.63
100OAK201216-4.9-1.3-6.23.82-1.63
101SDG19829-4.4-1-5.43.34-1.63
102OAK201116-4.9-0.2-5.13.14-1.62
103MIN196114-7.60.8-6.84.19-1.62
104OAK199716-5.40.4-53.12-1.61
105PHI194310-3.6-1.4-53.09-1.61
106ARI200716-3.3-2.6-5.93.64-1.61
107NYY195112-9.91.2-8.75.41-1.6
108WAS195912-7.80.6-7.24.51-1.6
109DET194611-9.30.8-8.55.32-1.59
110KAN200916-5-0.9-5.93.74-1.59
111DEN200816-6-0.5-6.54.09-1.59
112STL200616-3.2-1.6-4.72.99-1.58
113GNB195112-9.30.8-8.55.41-1.58
114RAM199016-5.6-0.9-6.54.15-1.58
115HOU200516-6.30.7-5.73.59-1.57
116CRD195912-5.7-1.4-7.14.51-1.57
117CHI194510-5-0.3-5.33.4-1.57
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122STL200916-5.80-5.83.74-1.54
123TEN200516-5.70.2-5.53.59-1.54
124CHI197514-6.5-0.1-6.64.28-1.54
125SFO200516-6.10.6-5.53.59-1.53
126SDG199716-5.81-4.83.12-1.53
127SFO195512-4-0.4-4.42.84-1.53
128DAL196114-5.6-0.8-6.44.19-1.53
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131SDG197314-8.1-0.2-8.35.46-1.52
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139KAN198715-4.3-0.5-4.83.18-1.51
140BAL195312-7.71.5-6.24.13-1.5
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142ATL196614-9.50.5-96.06-1.49
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188TAM198516-6.51-5.54.13-1.33
189ATL200716-4.2-0.7-4.83.64-1.33
190DET194812-10.70.9-9.87.37-1.33
191BOS196814-6.8-0.1-6.95.24-1.32
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193MIN201116-5.91.7-4.13.14-1.32
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200NOR196914-7.2-0.2-7.45.66-1.31

The amazing thing about the 1981 Colts isn’t how bad they were, but that they managed to actually sweep the Patriots. Of course, New England was 2-14 that year, but so was Baltimore. The Colts teams of the early ’80s were horrible, particularly on defense, and went 34 straight games without being a favorite.

Also, honorable mention goes to the terrible Washington defense in 1954. That year, the team allowed 36 points per game, including five games of over 40 points. That might be the worst defense since World War II. Finally, three teams from 2013 make the list, including the Bears and Vikings. Those NFC North defenses weren’t just bad, but also faced the AFC North and NFC East, meaning they had easy strengths of schedule, too.

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