Last year, when the Browns were 0-14, I noted that Cleveland was also a pitiful 2-12 against the spread. The worst mark against the spread in a 16-game season was 3-13, which Cleveland managed to avoid. The Browns beat the Chargers (and the spread) in week 16, and then pushed in a 3-point loss in the season finale against, of course, Pittsburgh.
But guess what? After falling to the Bears today, 20-3, the Browns are now 3-12 against the spread (the second worst team is the Broncos, who are 4-10-1). And for the 7th time in 8 years, the Browns will again finish the season against the Steelers.
If you look at the teams that were 3-13 or 3-12-1 against the spread, they tend to do very well the next year. In other words, Vegas perhaps hasn’t quite caught up to the fact that teams that perform terribly against the spread do much better the next year.
| Team | Year | Record ATS | Win % ATS | N+1 Record ATS | N+1 Win % ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 2014 | 3-13-0 | 0.1875 | 5-10-1 | 0.34375 |
| BAL | 2007 | 3-13-0 | 0.1875 | 12-4-0 | 0.75 |
| NWE | 1981 | 3-13-0 | 0.1875 | 6-3-0 | 0.667 |
| PIT | 1980 | 3-13-0 | 0.1875 | 8-8-0 | 0.5 |
| CIN | 1987 | 3-12-0 | 0.2 | 11-5-0 | 0.6875 |
| STL | 2011 | 3-12-1 | 0.21875 | 11-5-0 | 0.6875 |
| NYG | 2003 | 3-12-1 | 0.21875 | 8-8-0 | 0.5 |
| OAK | 2003 | 3-12-1 | 0.21875 | 6-10-0 | 0.375 |
| DAL | 1997 | 3-12-1 | 0.21875 | 8-7-1 | 0.53125 |
| HOU | 1994 | 3-12-1 | 0.21875 | 11-5-0 | 0.6875 |
| BAL | 1981 | 3-12-1 | 0.21875 | 4-5-0 | 0.444 |
| SFO | 1978 | 3-12-1 | 0.21875 | 7-8-1 | 0.46875 |
| Average | 3-12.3-0.6 | 0.207 | 8.1-6.5-0.3 | 0.554 |
But then you have… the Browns. Cleveland is now 6-24-1 against the spread since the start of last season, ensuring they will finish with the worst mark since 1978 over a 2-year period. The 2014-2015 Titans were the previous record-holder, at 8-23-1 against the spread, followed by the 2008-2009 Jaguars (9-23-0) and four teams at 9-22-1 (’03-’04 Raiders, 2007-2008 Broncos, 1990-1991 Rams, and well, the 2015-2016 Browns).
So not only has Cleveland been historically bad on the field this year, they have been historically bad against the spread for the second year in a row.