The Chargers Lead The AFC In ANY/A Differential

by Chase Stuart on November 25, 2017

When the Los Angeles Chargers started the season 0-4, it was tempting to think that the season was over. But, as I cautioned, not all 0-4 teams are created equally. And while only one team had ever gone from 0-4 to the playoffs (ironically, the Chargers in 1992), that was a little misleading. Most 0-4 teams don’t make the playoffs because of the 0-4 start *and* because they are bad teams. But if the team is a good team, an 0-4 start is not necessarily a death sentence.

Los Angeles is proving that to be the case. Right now, the Chargers rank 7th in the NFL in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, and 4th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt allowed. The Chargers rank 3rd in the NFL in ANY/A Differential — the difference between those two statistics — and rank 1st in the AFC in that category. Take a look: Take a look: the Y-Axis shows each team’s winning percentage, while the X-Axis displays ANY/A differential.

Search:

Rk	Team	ANY/A▼	ANY/A All	Diff	Win %
1	Los Angeles Rams	8.01	4.96	3.04	0.700
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7.59	4.74	2.86	0.900
3	Los Angeles Chargers	7.38	4.56	2.81	0.455
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	5.81	3.25	2.56	0.700
5	New Orleans Saints	7.95	5.46	2.50	0.800
6	Minnesota Vikings	7.46	5.16	2.30	0.818
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	6.61	4.35	2.26	0.800
8	Atlanta Falcons	7.00	5.67	1.33	0.600
9	Seattle Seahawks	6.65	5.39	1.26	0.600
10	New England Patriots	8.36	7.10	1.26	0.800
11	Washington Redskins	7.07	6.05	1.02	0.455
12	Kansas City Chiefs	7.39	6.49	0.90	0.600
13	Cincinnati Bengals	5.99	5.09	0.90	0.400
14	Detroit Lions	6.87	6.15	0.72	0.545
15	Baltimore Ravens	3.85	3.91	-0.06	0.500
16	Arizona Cardinals	5.70	6.07	-0.37	0.400
17	New York Jets	5.70	6.07	-0.37	0.400
18	Buffalo Bills	5.19	5.68	-0.49	0.500
19	Carolina Panthers	5.33	5.83	-0.50	0.700
20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.46	7.19	-0.73	0.400
21	Tennessee Titans	4.98	6.05	-1.07	0.600
22	Houston Texans	6.04	7.13	-1.09	0.400
23	Chicago Bears	5.09	6.25	-1.16	0.300
24	Dallas Cowboys	5.62	6.78	-1.17	0.455
25	Green Bay Packers	4.95	6.65	-1.71	0.500
26	Indianapolis Colts	5.47	7.32	-1.85	0.300
27	Denver Broncos	4.50	6.58	-2.08	0.300
28	New York Giants	5.12	7.21	-2.09	0.182
29	San Francisco 49ers	4.73	7.09	-2.37	0.100
30	Oakland Raiders	6.00	8.47	-2.47	0.400
31	Miami Dolphins	4.82	7.45	-2.63	0.400
32	Cleveland Browns	3.10	6.95	-3.85	0.000

Of course, with a 5-6 record, it’s easy to see why the Chargers have been overlooked. But Los Angeles is the biggest outlier in the NFL when it comes to ANY/A Differential vs. Winning Percentage. Take a look:

Los Angeles is third in ANY/A, but below-average in winning percentage. The Redskins and Bengals are the only other teams with positive ANY/A differentials but average or worse winning percentages. On the other side, the Titans and Panthers have “overachieved” in this category, along with the Patriots.

A few years ago, I wrote about where each Super Bowl champion ranked in a number of key metrics, including ANY/A differential. Other than record and Pythagorean record, the average Super Bowl champion ranked better in ANY/A differential than any other key metric. And last year, the top two teams in ANY/A differential met in the Super Bowl. At 5-6, the Chargers may not quite be a Super Bowl contender yet, but there are certainly in the running for biggest Super Bowl contender in history among teams that were below .500 entering December. Of course, while going from 0-4 to the playoffs is very Chargersesque, so is being a Super Bowl contender but missing the playoffs.

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